Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

A three year old Tesla model 3 SR would be worth around $25K, no?

Done. Tick that box.

But seriously, is a cheaper car necessary when they scarcely wear out? There will always be people wanting the freshest off the production line, so their hand me downs supply the low end. Nor is it like smaller electric cars pollute less. Zero is zero.

People like new shiny, clean cars.

Except that Tesla don't have "old models", they have the ones they build to order - OK, with a little excess inventory for opportunistic sales.

Maybe they have a backlog of parts to make cars, this might be a reason...?

It's the parts and whatnot. Although you may be right, they are probably fairly JIT in terms of inventory. ​

 

[Joe F]

That said, I do take issue with his characterization of EV adoption (as per my previous comment) [though he did end up making a comment about the legacy makers being half-hearted in their efforts] and he asserted that 80% of EV buyers were "young." Hard to dispute that uncited figure without defining what "young" means, but he said something along the lines of "young save-the-planet" types. He then mentioned the acceleration as making a Tesla desirable. I don't recall hearing him saying a single word about affordability, safety, improvement after purchase/OTA updates, auto-pilot or self driving capabilities.

I was in my mid 60's when I bought my MS. While waiting for my car to finish prep was a couple waiting for their MS to finish as well. The wife said her son was almost my age. She was 82.

Those trying to assign the age of someone as being a typical Tesla owner are mistaken.

 

[CyberDutchie]

nah, not really. Tesla is no longer a "story" stock and market has a "show me" attitude. Many investors want profit on the financial reports and upbeat guidance at the same time.

I think the Q1 and Q2 report would kill the "impending doom" narrative and lift the stock price a little bit. But I guess Tesla would put operational margin to market expansion, try to wave between slightly profit to slightly loss. that would keep the stock price low for years.

This has been a key question for me. When do you think we will see $400?

 

[ZachF]

People like new shiny, clean cars.

Also will sell way better in countries with lower incomes and lower automobile ASPs.

For instance, Tesla may be able to sell a few hundred thousand $35k model 3s in a country like China, but they could probably sell millions of $25k Model 2s.

 

[tinm]

On Feb 28 during the conference call with analyists, Elon repeated that Tesla would have a new cheaper car in 2-3 years, but probably closer to three:

Elon Musk: Expect a cheaper Tesla in '2 - 3 years'

This is a repeat of his comment to Marques Brownlee (MKBHD) in their Aug 2018 video:

“To get ultimately to something like a $25,000 car, that’s something we could do, but that’s probably 3 years away if we work really hard.”​

Notice how time has not moved forward during the intervening 6 months?

So 3-4 yrs is a good WAG, but its not actually what Elon said. We should always be careful with quotes, memory being what it is.

Something about the relativist time distortion field, mumble, Elon time...

Cheers!

Recall that in June 2008 Elon said at a press conference w/ then-Gov Schwarzenegger that he expected a sub-$30,000 Tesla car in four years. That would’ve been 2012. Still waiting...

 

[jerry33]

Nor is it like smaller electric cars pollute less.

Actually, smaller cars do pollute less because they use less material and energy during construction, and less energy during their useful life.

 

[Artful Dodger]

3:33 pm EDT update:

NASDAQ-100 +2.13%
TSLA +2.13%

 

[Zaxxon]

Norway now doubling the required rate needed for the rest of the month in order to make Q1 2019 the best Tesla month ever over there. 233 today alone.

Not that that's surprising with the intro of the 3, but it's nice to see it becoming more likely despite the fact that this is by far the seasonally-lowest quarter of the year:

 

[mrdoubleb]

2 random thoughts related to news today:

• Doesn't that GF1 whistleblower claim about the 420 offer having been discussed for days prior to the tweet weaken the SEC's original case? Their claim was that this was a rash decision by Elon while on his way to the airport, but now it seems even GF1 mid-management knew about it for days. (That is if we believe a single word he says). I understand they also claimed he had no funding secured, but if this was being seriously discussed within the company for days or weeks, it makes it a much more serious offer/consideration, doesn't it?

• The recent news about Trump possibly ending the federal EV incentive. While bad for EV adoption, putting my TSLA hat on for a moment, this could be beneficial for Tesla. The incentive is already running out for them, but taking it out of the equation will make cars like the Leaf or the Ionic look very bad compared to the SR and SR+ Model 3.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I'm hearing that some large institutional investors have been given leaked info that Q1 will be slightly profitable. The last two crazy rumors that I posted here came out to be true, but still not an advice.

Conspiracy theory: Tesla is deferring store closures until April to avoid taking excessive one-time costs that would cause them to have a slight loss.

 

[KarenRei]

Henceforth it shall be known as The Meissner Abyss

Poor Stuart, AFAIK, the only "news" site to pick up on it was Buffoon Insider...

Let's see what TSLAQ has to say about the Meissner news

32MB OF ESRAM‏ @32MBofESRAM 6h6 hours ago
it's the guy who falsely claimed Martin Tripp was heavily armed and distraught wandering around the tesla factory when he was in a casino, unarmed, in another state, with his family. This was Musk's version of Doug Stamper

James Gleason‏ @Jimg1126 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @StuartMeissner @IsTeslaWorth0
This is a big nothing.

Greenhouse Gas‏ @GasGreenhouse 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @StuartMeissner
Without any more details this is just like a parking lot full of Teslas Stuart. Hope we'll get the bigger picture soon.

Greg Cadger, EA, IA‏ @CadgerGreg 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @StuartMeissner
You have become the boy crying wolf. Your proclamations will be dismissed as background noise from here on.

Deepwater‏ @DeepwaterShort 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @StuartMeissner
You should be embarrassed of yourself

ltermvalue‏ @ltermvalue 4h4 hours ago
Replying to @StuartMeissner
Stuart, how relevant is it that your client recounts that many were skeptical on the take private tweets given that it a) sounds like hearsay/office gossip and b) the SEC already settled the case with musk & company?

Frankie Mammola‏ @Frankie11495 4h4 hours ago
Replying to @StuartMeissner
Lol, I’m done. A “tip” that Tesla employees were skeptical on a tweet. What BS. “Broad ramifications”... how?

lessay fair cat‏ @portatopia 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @StuartMeissner

nothing burger

 

[JRP3]

People like new shiny, clean cars.

I prefer used, shiny clean cars. Let someone else take the instant depreciation hit.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The hotrod from god

OT

If you're talking about THOR, God of Thunder, then yes. Precisely.

 

[jhm]

It's a myth. A pencil would produce large amount of tiny graphite particles floating everywhere (due to zero G) which is a hazard to the health of astronaut, and to the electrical system (random shorts).

Color crayons, then?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

2 random thoughts related to news today:

• The recent news about Trump possibly ending the federal EV incentive. While bad for EV adoption, putting my TSLA hat on for a moment, this could be beneficial for Tesla. The incentive is already running out for them, but taking it out of the equation will make cars like the Leaf or the Ionic look very bad compared to the SR and SR+ Model 3.

Being selfish here as a shareholder but I would be ok with the tax credit ending in 2019. Tesla is the one that really started the EV momentum. They took the risk and a lot of the up front cost to bring batteries prices down. The other auto makers dragged their feet with excuses and they should pay the cost for that. Sure it might mean the EV movement is slowed down a bit………..but it would be a really small hit considering most of the EV growth is outside the US. All it means is Tesla would need another US Gigafactory to handle all that demand since the cost of other auto makers vehicles would be much higher than Tesla's(that or they sell at a huge loss and go bankrupt...…..I'm ok with either outcome lol).

 

[Anstandswauwau]

Can you elaborate on that? Do you have to do a lot of paper work before you take delivery? Or are you required to finish all paperwork in a certain time frame after?

In US it’s minimal amount of paperwork as long as you have the fund. If you take a loan from outside of Tesla, there would be some email back and forth to get the check ready before delivery, other than that, all paperwork is just some signatures on delivery day.

If you have insurance already, most policy allow you to retroactively add a new car a few days later, so you could do that only after you decide to keep the car.(It might be different if you take a loan though, but it’s just a phone call anyway.)

Could you elaborate on what the paperwork would be like in EU, if you decide not to keep the car.

I'll try my best, however, please keep in mind the following may only apply to my kafkaesque home country:

1. Shop for car, hit "buy" and sign sales agreement with Tesla.
   
   
2. Send sales agreement to your insurance company. It will take somewhere between 3 days to a week for them to prepare your insurance, which they'll confirm digitally or via mail.
   
   
3. (Optional: Meanwhile, you can arrange a loan or leasing plan.)
   
   
4. Wait somewhere from three weeks to three years for Tesla to deliver your car to a delivery center.
   
   
5. Tesla should then A) either mail you the car's legal and technical permits or B) they call you so you can pick them up from the delivery center. Mind you, the permits, not the car.
   
   
6. You then have to take the permits to your local insurer which happens to be an admission office. There, you hand over the car's legal and technical permit, your ID, confirmation of main residence and the prior confirmation of your insurer (Optional: Leasing contract). Oh, and ~$250 to legally register the car. Processing all of the stuff usually takes at least an hour.
   
   In return, you'll receive your number plate and a temporary driving permit – you'll receive the proper one within two weeks. This is non-refundable and irreversible no matter what.
   
   
7. Equipped with the number plate, you can now take delivery of the car you had to buy, insure and register in order to test drive. Hurray!
   
   
8. Turns out your wife doesn't like the white interior so she insists on returning it.
   
   
9. Being the good husband you are, you head back to your Tesla delivery center. In order to return the car, Tesla formally has to buy the car back from you. Both sides sign a sales agreement. You leave the car at the delivery center so your wife has to pick you up.
   
   
10. At this point, you bring everything from 6), the sales agreement from 9) to the admission office. This allows you to return the number plate and to de-register the car. This process only takes some minutes and is free.
    
    
11. (Optional: Cancel your leasing plan / pay back the loan including a hefty penalty fee.)

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Norway started receiving M3 in mid feb. That volume is a few weeks of deliveries.

I know.

 

[KarenRei]

Recall that in June 2008 Elon said at a press conference w/ then-Gov Schwarzenegger that he expected a sub-$30,000 Tesla car in four years. That would’ve been 2012. Still waiting...

Actually, I don't recall that. But:

 

[KarenRei]

This has been a key question for me. When do you think we will see $400?

I think it'll be hard to hit so long as there's tariff fears for both China and the EU, without said fears negated with local production.

There's obviously a lot of other factors, too, but I think those will scare people off of TSLA going too high, too soon.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm hearing that some large institutional investors have been given leaked info that Q1 will be slightly profitable. The last two crazy rumors that I posted here came out to be true, but still not an advice.

Lol, how is this a 'leak' when Elon said during the 2018Q4 Conference Call that he expects Q1 to have a 'tiny profit'?

Only the Financial Press was forecast a Q1 loss. They were B.S.ing onJan 28 and they're B.S.ing now.

Tesla seen forecasting first-quarter loss after Musk warning | Reuters

Less than worthless: actively working against the Company. Short timers love'em 'cuz they move the stock, but since its known to be a lie, the SP moves right back.

How is this not illegal? Where's the SEC? Oh yeah, reading dank memes...