Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[15Peter20]

Perhaps the "carbon-sleeved rotors" are part of the answer? I think a teardown of a Plaid Model S is going to reveal all kinds of new tweaks and beefed-up components to make it capable of 1000+ HP. But, I'd like to know how they are going to "maintain peak power output all the way to top speed"?

I’m guessing the motors will be running faster to increase power density. Greater power density means greater peak power, but you can shape the peak to flatten the curve. Maintaining peak power across the speed range will be impressive and would mean the true peak power would be colossal. It’ll be interesting to see what hackers can do with this once Plaids are in the wild.

An E-motor‘s ‘natural’ power characteristic vs RPM is an inverted bell shape with the peak occurring at half the speed that the unloaded motor will reach for the input voltage, meaning to get a flatter curve you need to have a large enough bell that you can slice the top to give the flat response.


If the magnets are surface mounted then retaining them on the rotor at higher speeds becomes harder, hence the carbon sleeving.

 

[petit_bateau]

Question: I need for an article I write the total GWh delivered from Tesla in 2020

Hard data would be great but a calculation out of vehicles and batteries supplied would do too

Thanks in advance

@avoigt my 2020 data for TSLA has 36.37 GWh made up of 34.40 GWh mobile and 1.97 GWh stationary. That represents 30.4% of global BEV+PHEV cell consumption by GWh. (the HEV consumption is trivial, about 3% so no longer material). That is up from 26.3 GWh in mobility for TSLA in 2019 which was then 31.6% market share by GWh. I have posted details of methodologies etc here in the past, and my numbers compare well with some industry data sources. Let me know if you need more info.

 

[avoigt]

@avoigt my 2020 data for TSLA has 36.37 GWh made up of 34.40 GWh mobile and 1.97 GWh stationary. That represents 30.4% of global BEV+PHEV cell consumption. (the HEV consumption is trivial, about 3% so no longer material). I have posted details of methodologies etc here in the past, and my numbers compare well with some industry data sources. Let me know if you need more info.

Thanks that's very helpful and in line with my napkin math

appreciated!

 

[petit_bateau]

Thanks that's very helpful and in line with my napkin math

appreciated!

No worries. If you look at my post Tesla BEV Competition Developments you can see most of the info, and some commentary from myself that I suggest you read. Other info is in other posts including a more detailed by vehicle manufacturer perspective, and by cell manufacturer perspective. All of this is based on public domain data, none of this is proprietary, though it has taken considerable effort to fill the data gaps in adequately.

 

[Pras]

Disagree.

By not including energy ARK have lost some credibility. The other problems with their analysis are matters of judgement, which are not errors, just things that rational observers can have different opinions on. But with energy they are ignoring an existing business, one for which Tesla have given guidance on.

Energy could and should be included in their model, it would be easy to set the parameters such that it grows no faster than the auto business, in which case it would have only modest effect on the results (about 5% higher).

So I am confused now. One guy has criticized that ARK model is too optimistic on vehicle production count against Battery growth projection, while others are criticizing that Tesla energy should have been included as it will be big.

So simply put ARK is assuming any new battery capacity will primarily be directed to car manufacturing. Elon has said that Tesla willl remain battery constrained in near future and will need suppliers. So simply put ARK is assuming no significant ramp up of energy business. Any model that would have added price target of 5 or 10 would simply be over-precise.

 

[Discoducky]

I’m guessing the motors will be running faster to increase power density. Greater power density means greater peak power, but you can shape the peak to flatten the curve. Maintaining peak power across the speed range will be impressive and would mean the true peak power would be colossal. It’ll be interesting to see what hackers can do with this once Plaids are in the wild.

An E-motor‘s ‘natural’ power characteristic vs RPM is an inverted bell shape with the peak occurring at half the speed that the unloaded motor will reach for the input voltage, meaning to get a flatter curve you need to have a large enough bell that you can slice the top to give the flat response.


If the magnets are surface mounted then retaining them on the rotor at higher speeds becomes harder, hence the carbon sleeving.

I can't wait and this song keeps playing in my head, "Whatever Mclaren does I can do better!"

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Capacity at Fremont last year was 90k.

Why would you need volume of 100k Plus to justify a European line?

It seems every OEM can walk and chew gum at the same time so why shouldn't Tesla?

Semi and Model 2 are going to need way more batteries. And Semi will need Megacharger Network too. That is the limiting factor. Not a production line that could be diverted from S/X production.

My guess is mini cybertruck would get unveiled at least ~1.5 years ahead of actual delivery date. I am not so sure mini cybertuck would outsell refreshed S/X in Europe.

My contention is that Tesla in Europe has many higher priorities than a European S/X line.

For volumes up to about 100k for Europe it is more efficient for Tesla to expand their Fremont line, the lower cost from economies of scale at Fremont goes part way to offset the 10% import duties (and transport costs), but lower costs would also improve margins (or allow lower costs which would expand market share) in North America and other export markets. My guestimate is that below about 200k worldwide it is more efficient to just have a single factory supplying the whole world, using knock down kits in general allows local assembly plants at lower volumes - but that is not now possible for the S/X.

Tesla have never introduced more than a single model at a plant at the same time. For them to ramp up Y, 3, 2, euro-semi, euro-cybertruck and S/X at the same time is even for them very, very difficult.

More batteries and megachargers are just another two things that have higher priority than a European S/X line.

Tesla seem to want to reduce time between unveil and first deliveries, it looks like Model 2 might be under a year and I would expect mini-cybertruck to be similar.

About 50k pickup trucks were registered in the UK in 2019, so the total European market is probably over 200k. Tesla could possibly get 20% of that, add in export markets and conversion from other vehicle types (as we have seen with cybertruck sales where many have been to first time truck buyers) and I would guess at between 100k and 200k yearly sales. Note that cybertruck is supposed to be easier to manufacture than S (and especially X) so the minimum viable factory size is probably less. The van market is more than 6 times larger than the pickup truck market in Europe, so maybe that should be the priority.

 

[15Peter20]

I can't wait and this song keeps playing in my head, "Whatever Mclaren does I can do better!"

I know more than a little about McLaren and...... you are absolutely correct.

 

[15Peter20]

I’m guessing the motors will be running faster to increase power density. Greater power density means greater peak power, but you can shape the peak to flatten the curve. Maintaining peak power across the speed range will be impressive and would mean the true peak power would be colossal. It’ll be interesting to see what hackers can do with this once Plaids are in the wild.

An E-motor‘s ‘natural’ power characteristic vs RPM is an inverted bell shape with the peak occurring at half the speed that the unloaded motor will reach for the input voltage, meaning to get a flatter curve you need to have a large enough bell that you can slice the top to give the flat response.


If the magnets are surface mounted then retaining them on the rotor at higher speeds becomes harder, hence the carbon sleeving.

I wonder whether dragstrip mode unflattens the curve a bit. Assuming the battery, electronics and drivetrain can handle the extra power.

edit to add “and the occupants”!

 

[MikeAtkinson]

So I am confused now. One guy has criticized that ARK model is too optimistic on vehicle production count against Battery growth projection, while others are criticizing that Tesla energy should have been included as it will be big.

So simply put ARK is assuming any new battery capacity will primarily be directed to car manufacturing. Elon has said that Tesla willl remain battery constrained in near future and will need suppliers. So simply put ARK is assuming no significant ramp up of energy business. Any model that would have added price target of 5 or 10 would simply be over-precise.

Yes, Tesla will remain battery constrained for the next few years. It looks like Tesla will manufacture 500-1000 GWh of cells and buy a similar amount from CATL, LG and Panasonic. Of those only about 500 GWh will be used in vehicles leaving 500-1500 GWh for stationary storage. Even if Tesla sold 10 million vehicles (too high in my opinion) with an average of 100kWh per vehicle (again too high), i.e. all are long range, many of the cells that Tesla obtains from suppliers would be LFP which are only suitable for short range packs or stationary storage.

Also I think when Elon says "near future" he is thinking about the next year or two, not 2025.

Revenue and earnings per kWh might not be less for stationary storage, powerwalls have a high gross margin and both them and utility scale storage benefit from virtual power plant and autobidder income. Powerwalls are also mainly sold as a package with solar, which greatly increases the revenue per kWh. This means that ARK's assumption that Tesla would prioritize car sales over energy storage is suspect, particularly in scenarios where FSD does not work or that the robotaxi network is not launched.

All this shows the limitations of ARK's Monte Carlo model, they seem to make the assumption that there are enough batteries for however many vehicles the model spits out, but no more. They could instead have tried to model battery production and then allocated those batteries between vehicles and stationary storage, according to some extra model parameters.

Finally energy is more than stationary storage, ARK do not model solar which is known to be ramping up rapidly.

 

[Norwalk79]

I told @Norwalk79 about TMC when I saw him/her battling FUDsters and haters on Seeking Alpha. I would not have done that if I thought he was one of them. I saw him as a Tesla enthusiast who could benefit from a more knowledgable and honest community of such enthusiasts.

Indeed, if you look at his first posts here, you will see great enthusiasm and eagerness to contribute. I think he jumped into posting without knowing the unwritten rules, and posted about FUD because he thought tracking it might be useful, not because he endorsed it. Or maybe he was venting his outrage about it and hoping for empathy. Or both.

One of the pleasures of any community is the joy of scorning outsiders -- a human trait apparently rooted in evolution. We feel comforted hanging out with our tribe (which of course is better than other tribes), because it helped our ancestors survive. But the trouble with scorning and sneering and name-calling and blocking dissenters is it cuts you off from possibly useful info. TSLAQ demonstrated this, to the financial ruin of some of them.

I value the info contributed by @Knightshade and @RobStark, for example, even though I have disagreed with some of their opinions. I suspect @Norwalk79 could also contribute useful info, if you tell him the rules and give him a chance.

What a life saver. Thanks a million to PeterJA for a very meaningful explanation. Now I realize when I cited the SeekinAlpha’s Tesla Shorts’ weapons, I mistakenly sent a wrong message that I endorse them. Now I need to preface, correctly title that is the bad fire from Tesla’s opponents. I did name 3 tiers of Tesla’s opponents who provide funds to Tesla Shorts to bottom Tesla stock price, its main advantage to beat competition/opponents

Recently there are numerous news regarding NHTSA investigation of multiple Tesla Autopilot accidents, a part of Tesla smear campaign by its opponents. It is very easy to know whose fault just by examining of the vehicle’s black box as described in the below Tiger Woods crash investigation: he never hit brake

UPDATE 2-U.S. safety agency reviewing 23 Tesla crashes, three from recent weeks

Tiger Woods crash investigation: he never hit brake

I post this news to show that people usually lies after an accident to avoid tickets/fines/pay for damage, or in the cases of NHTSA investigation of multiple Tesla Autopilot accidents, a part of Tesla smear campaign by its opponents. The fact that drivers can take over their car’s acceleration, caused an accident and blame the Autopilot feature, that requires driver’s supervision all the time. The truth is in each vehicle black box as described in the following news:

When I first read the accident story, the only and first police officer responded to the scene, reported that Tiger was calm, not under any influence and Tiger said he did not remember the accident. Well, this is different than a mystery man was first to find an unconscious Tiger Woods after rollover crash.

Quote:” A man who lives near the Tiger Woods accident site — and who heard the crash — was first on the scene and found the golfer unconscious in his mangled SUV, authorities said in court documents made public Friday. The man lives near the site in Southern California’s Rolling Hills Estates, and was close enough to walk to the crash site, where he found Woods’ face and chin covered with blood, the documents say.”

Mystery man was first to find an unconscious Tiger Woods after rollover crash

Now, as the vehicle’s black box was examined, quote: “Law enforcement sources told TMZ there’s no evidence so far showing Woods slowed down as he veered off the road — and it looks as though Woods never even took his foot off the gas.”

Tiger Woods crash investigation reportedly shows he never hit brake

I did post the following on the SA site following Tiger Woods accident:

As Tiger Woods injured both of his legs requiring surgery in a single car roll-over to a hill side, he definitely needs Tesla EV with FSD to prevent a costly accident. This Tesla is also needed for millions of DUI drivers, handicapped and seniors need a ride to doctor appointment, markets….

Tesla Model X drove itself from its owner’s home to a service center with zero interventions

Tesla Model X with FSD beta drives itself to service center with no interventions

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Lots of progress at Terafactory Austin in the last week:

From Randy's description:

Here are today’s key takeaways:
- In the northeast corner, we see that work is being done to fill in the roof area near the Giga Press where the cutout is leading to the exhaust stack. From this area, we also get a look at the paint shop and can better see both lines of modules attached and running most of the length of the second level.

- On the perimeter path on the east side, the storm water management pipe has been covered up and across the power lines from here, we can see how long the other section of pipe is thus far.

- The south end shows wall panel installation on the angled corner still in progress and we can see that most of the roof column extensions have been installed and we can see how the top panels will extend above the roofline.

- We can see concrete being poured everywhere around the site and from the middle of the site, we can see a large section of the ground floor has been poured and the section next to it is ready to receive concrete next. Heading north in this area, we see 3 massive blowers on the ground and these are identical to the ones on the truck that was broken down at the southbound stop sign at Harold Green Road seen in Jeff Robert’s video from earlier in the day, which was still there being worked on as I left the site. I’ll leave a link to his video in the description. The far north of this section shows the east side of the large western section also having massive amounts of concrete poured and we also can see the work being done to run massive amounts of pipe down the middle of the factory from this shot.

- The northwestern corner shows the perimeter grade beam formed up to the angled section and both of the pits have concrete that has been poured or is actively being poured. We can see rebar and forms in place in both of them, but it’s not clear yet what the purpose of these small forms will be.

- The installation progress of the section of the paint shop having the panels installed has been completed and they are now erecting steel directly next to the wall to fill in this area.

- The switchyard shows some major steel components still in the process of being erected that are mounted on the small footings we saw poured here a while back. To the south, we get a good look at how the conduit is being laid for electricity to go from the switchyard and under the road. We also see on the other side of the road that another trench for electricity is now located at the bottom of the small hill that’s identical to the one at the top of it.

 

[Unpilot]

Now I realize when I cited the SeekinAlpha’s Tesla Shorts’ weapons, I mistakenly sent a wrong message that I endorse them

And yet you still manage to put in a link to a FUD article...keeping your batting average near 100 percent....bravo sir/s

 

[UkNorthampton]

UK - relating to stupid UK Gov EV grant changes (under £35,000 Recommended Retail Price).

Got email from Tesla:-

Example few cars (by cheapest). £43490 normal minimum price for SR+ (edit for price typo)

 

[Drax7]

Arcimoto is a first mover in this market. It's yet to be seen if they can scale up enough to capture a significant share of this market though. I could see there being a high demand for N-EV's in India, China, and Mexico to name a few. I don't think that Tesla wants to compete on the low end. But I suppose it's possible that Elon could decide there's still too many ICE vehicles in those countries and no one is able to meet the demand quickly enough. That could push Tesla to move in, maybe with a two-seater. The catch would be whether he thinks they can build one that meets their safety standards. The price also has to be low enough while still getting a decent margin. Oh, and as always, can they produce enough batteries.

Warrens $500 billion gross profit seems low to me.
Come on let’s dream big.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

And yet you still manage to put in a link to a FUD article...keeping your batting average near 100 percent....bravo sir/s

This ain't rocket surgery. If all someone does every day is post links and snippets of FUD articles, that's highly suspicious. Because no one in their right mind with good intentions would use a discussion forum in that manner. Simple clear-cut observation.

 

[Don TLR]

I got this in the inbox: More reasons why Tesla doesn’t have to advertise , the cars just scream put me on the cover.

 

[Krugerrand]

What a life saver. Thanks a million to PeterJA for a very meaningful explanation. Now I realize when I cited the SeekinAlpha’s Tesla Shorts’ weapons, I mistakenly sent a wrong message that I endorse them. Now I need to preface, correctly title that is the bad fire from Tesla’s opponents. I did name 3 tiers of Tesla’s opponents who provide funds to Tesla Shorts to bottom Tesla stock price, its main advantage to beat competition/opponents

Recently there are numerous news regarding NHTSA investigation of multiple Tesla Autopilot accidents, a part of Tesla smear campaign by its opponents. It is very easy to know whose fault just by examining of the vehicle’s black box as described in the below Tiger Woods crash investigation: he never hit brake

UPDATE 2-U.S. safety agency reviewing 23 Tesla crashes, three from recent weeks

Tiger Woods crash investigation: he never hit brake

I post this news to show that people usually lies after an accident to avoid tickets/fines/pay for damage, or in the cases of NHTSA investigation of multiple Tesla Autopilot accidents, a part of Tesla smear campaign by its opponents. The fact that drivers can take over their car’s acceleration, caused an accident and blame the Autopilot feature, that requires driver’s supervision all the time. The truth is in each vehicle black box as described in the following news:

When I first read the accident story, the only and first police officer responded to the scene, reported that Tiger was calm, not under any influence and Tiger said he did not remember the accident. Well, this is different than a mystery man was first to find an unconscious Tiger Woods after rollover crash.

Quote:” A man who lives near the Tiger Woods accident site — and who heard the crash — was first on the scene and found the golfer unconscious in his mangled SUV, authorities said in court documents made public Friday. The man lives near the site in Southern California’s Rolling Hills Estates, and was close enough to walk to the crash site, where he found Woods’ face and chin covered with blood, the documents say.”

Mystery man was first to find an unconscious Tiger Woods after rollover crash

Now, as the vehicle’s black box was examined, quote: “Law enforcement sources told TMZ there’s no evidence so far showing Woods slowed down as he veered off the road — and it looks as though Woods never even took his foot off the gas.”

Tiger Woods crash investigation reportedly shows he never hit brake

I did post the following on the SA site following Tiger Woods accident:

As Tiger Woods injured both of his legs requiring surgery in a single car roll-over to a hill side, he definitely needs Tesla EV with FSD to prevent a costly accident. This Tesla is also needed for millions of DUI drivers, handicapped and seniors need a ride to doctor appointment, markets….

Tesla Model X drove itself from its owner’s home to a service center with zero interventions

Tesla Model X with FSD beta drives itself to service center with no interventions

Yes, thanks. We know all about that. Been going on for years. Not news here. We’re VERY informed here. Like VERY. If you’re looking to educate en masse, you’re on the wrong ship.

Here’s a suggestion: sit back and simply read (preferably for a few weeks) what posters discuss here. Perhaps even peruse other threads where education can be lacking. Then jump in and add (preferably succinctly) if we’ve missed a point.

 

[2daMoon]

Yes, thanks. We know all about that. Been going on for years. Not news here. We’re VERY informed here. Like VERY. If you’re looking to educate en masse, you’re on the wrong ship.

Here’s a suggestion: sit back and simply read (preferably for a few weeks) what posters discuss here. Perhaps even peruse other threads where education can be lacking. Then jump in and add (preferably succinctly) if we’ve missed a point.

Agreed, it would be great (for folks like this one, should they actually be sincere) if they take a week or a month break from posting and go back a year or two in the thread and read up to current.

Were they to do that they would have a lot better understanding about what has been covered, what sort of stuff has no bearing on the Investment forum, and would be in a much better position to become a contributor of worthwhile content.

Or, if they are trolls (and/or merely attention-seekers unable to realize how they get labeled as a troll) they can keep doing what they are doing and be relinquished to being ignored.

 

[kbM3]

Worldwide? Not remotely, no.

1-2 percent in China per Elon last quarters call

Europe is likely single digits as well given how crippled even the L2 stuff is there by regulation.

NA might be that high-- Tesla doesn't tell us... Troys spredsheet data suggests it's it the range you mention, but that likely is skewed high as anyone saavy enough to know about Troy and the spreadsheet and provide data to it is probably more likely to be buying the most high tech option too.

Even then, 20-30% in one geo, single digits in all others (VERY low single digits in China) is a long long way from 70%.



Tesla brought back EAP in China and Europe a few months ago specifically because of how bad the FSD take rate is there.




The hypothetical suggested was if the system remains at L2 or at best L3 though.

It's already L2. Simply adding "Drives in the city but you must constantly pay attention ready to intervene" doesn't seem like it'd drive take rate a ton higher.

My own opinion L3-city is a non-starter. (and probably legally is one in EU even if it worked well)

L3 highway- THAT I believe would increase take rate for folks who do significant highway driving, but I'm dubious it'd more than double it in NA, and also increase it by 10x in europe and like 35x in China.

I view L3 as safe, but may get confused and need help from the driver (so safety interventions < 1 / 500k miles, but nuisance interventions much higher). If it weren’t safe on highway, you couldn’t afford to read a book, because human context switching is incredibly slow.

So if I’m right, L3 City would be very valuable even if a nuisance intervention occurred once per week.