Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Discoducky]

CNBC front of app. Top story.....

TESLA SOLAR WILL BURN YOUR CHILDREN ALIVE!!!​

Thank goodness they are toning it down from yesterday....which was what again?

 

[printf42]

I dotn understand what moves price and I think I give up trying.

Seems like the casting machine isn't at 100% if this is accurate.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/maqqfc

The opening sentence is equivalent of “I work in ICE R&D hence I am very familiar with Tesla’s drivetrain plans”.

If this is true, he probably had a bad few months explaining to his boss why a lot of things the boss heard Tesla’s doing is “impossible”.

lol there goes the credibility.

 

[buttershrimp]

The opening sentence is equivalent of “I work in ICE R&D so I am familiar with Tesla’s plans”.

If this is true, he probably had a bad few months explaining to his boss why a lot of things the boss heard Tesla’s doing is “impossible”.

lol there goes the credibility.

He should have said Tesla is losing market share in China due to lime scooter sales

 

[Maarten]

So are you saying you had drivetrain reliability issues related to mechanical failure due to handling the torque?

I ask because cars of that vintage all had drivetrain issues/replacements (including my 2013 non-P) due to a problem with the shaft bearing causing a mechanical growl, but that was due to pitting induced by stray eddy currents induced in the rotor, not to torque-induced failure.

Hmm, that doesn't sound like what was happening with my drivetrains.
A clicking sound when going from applying power to regen, apparently because of slowly developing play inside parts the motor?
My logical assumption is that mechanical power was the reason, but Tesla replaced under warranty. No explanation was given nor asked by me.
However, another (later) replacement of the drivetrain was maybe more like you described.

Drifting a bit too far away from the subject of this thread now, I think.
I just hope that Tesla will be able to control the power that the electric motors provide in a durable way!

 

[Carl Raymond]

Well, as long as VW can continue to buy a good fraction of VW EVs, why not?

I read that as humour, but in seriousness, I agree. Eventually the dealers will have to offload them at whatever price reduction necessary. An ICE goes to the grave, mission on track.

It has been said many times, but it will require repeating ad nauseam until the media, the public and most investors understand.... there are NO TESLA KILLERS. If a car does hit the market that’s as good as a Tesla, then it’s way better than an ICEV. It’s an ICE KILLER. It brings forward that point in time where exhaust pipes lose all street cred. Those who remember smoke filled bars, restaurants and workplaces have lived through one such mind-shift. Another approaches, imho.

 

[st_lopes]

Let's not pretend we don't know why ARK didn't include entire business segments in their estimate. ARK doesn't benefit from being accurate, they benefit from being right. If in 2025 TSLA is:

$1000: ARK was wrong
$2500: ARK was wrong
$3000: ARK was right
$5000: ARK was right (even though they were actually wrong)
$7,000: ARK was right (even though they were actually completely wrong)
$20,000: ARK was right (even though they were actually completely, wildly wrong)

If the SP starts running ahead of what they projected, they can simply raise their PT to reflect this, and still be credited with being right. In fact this is what has actually happened. Their 2019 PT for 2024 was proving to be way too low, so they are now increasing the price target to reflect this, but are still getting full credit for being right. Setting the PT as low as possible is in ARK's interest, and openly omitting entire business segments is the obvious way to do it without lying.

Nailed it.

 

[willow_hiller]

Decided to actually read into CNBC's latest article on Tesla Energy... I'm amazed they managed to write so many words with such little information behind them.

The gist:

• An employee filed a complaint about the fire risk of a third party hardware component (Amphenol H4 connector) in Spring 2019. This same component was identified as the likely cause of the fires at some Walmart locations. It was an industry-standard part at the time of installation, but about 1% were faulty according to a Tesla spokesperson: Tesla responds to Amazon fire report, says remaining solar installations are optimal | TESLARATI
• Starting around the same time the complaint was filed, Tesla went to an extensive effort to identify and replace all faulty connectors. Dubbed "Project Titan" there's a lot of media portraying these replacements as nefarious for some reason. E.g. Tesla secretly swapped faulty panels, resulting in fires: report
• In August 2020, 16 months after the initial complaint and after Tesla did much to mitigate the issue, the employee was fired (believing it to be connected to his complaint).

So there's nothing really new here except possible retaliation against an employee. But it wouldn't make much sense for them to fire him 16 months after working hard to mitigate the issues he raised. That, and the guy thinks that some of the faulty components could still be on some systems. But it sounds like he's grossly overestimating how many connectors were faulty to begin with.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The last 5 mins of today’s session saw the highest volume of the day (1.45M shares) to push us down to exactly 670.00. Are we to believe that there is no manipulation?

Actually, NASDAQ reported 1.99M shares of TSLA traded in the final 5 minutes (3:56-4:00 p.m.) and 1.57M shares traded in the final 2 minutes. This is extreme, and represent a max effort to achieve some desired result.

To wit, the SP was pushed down over $6 during those final five minutes (recovered slightly to Close at $670 even). That's below both the 10-D moving avg and the Mid-BB: (no coincidence for hedgies trying to control the narrative)

TSLA was down 6.8x vs. the 'macros' (NASDAQ-100) this afteroon from the peak at 12:45 pm to the Close). I'm sure there was some 'ARK nullification' thrown in there today too (good'ol buoy Cramer tipped their hand early).

Cathie was so right when she described it as 'climbing the wall of worry'. No matter. The longer the base, the bigger the breakout. Thanks, Auntie Cathie (u rock).

Cheers!

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Back to back wins for the first time since 2/11-2/12! They pulled ahead early and were cruising to a blowout win, but faltered late in the 4th quarter to cut the lead in half. This win puts them over .500 for last 10 for the first time in a while. Let's hope they can maintain the momentum.

Today
Score: 670.00
Margin of W/L: 15.13
Attendance: 39,512,221

Season
Record: 27-27
Total points in wins: 670.09
Total points in losses: -705.76
YTD gain/loss: -35.67 -5.05%
Avg margin of victory: 24.82
Avg margin of defeat: -26.14
Best W: 110.58 2021-03-09
Worst L: -68.83 2021-01-11
Last 10: 6-4
Streak: W2

 

[MC3OZ]

I'm not convinced, probably just shipping S & X as whole cars as made differently or another way to transport. Any changes to USA/EU tariffs?

That is what I think is happening...

Zac and Jessie are way off here, they will just need to pay the tariffs, or negotiate.

In the long run I expect the Fremont changes to lower the cost of building S/X so Tesla might absorb some of the tariff as a hit to margin,

S/X will be, low volume, high end, fully imported cars.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Let's not pretend we don't know why ARK didn't include entire business segments in their estimate. ARK doesn't benefit from being accurate, they benefit from being right. If in 2025 TSLA is:

$1000: ARK was wrong
$2500: ARK was wrong
$3000: ARK was right
$5000: ARK was right (even though they were actually wrong)
$7,000: ARK was right (even though they were actually completely wrong)
$20,000: ARK was right (even though they were actually completely, wildly wrong)

If the SP starts running ahead of what they projected, they can simply raise their PT to reflect this, and still be credited with being right. In fact this is what has actually happened. Their 2019 PT for 2024 was proving to be way too low, so they are now increasing the price target to reflect this, but are still getting full credit for being right. Setting the PT as low as possible is in ARK's interest, and openly omitting entire business segments is the obvious way to do it without lying.

Sharply written - kudos!

Hm... makes me wonder...
I mean, we have a lot of talented TMC'er here from various walks of life.
How hard could it really be setting up an open source analysis firm consisting of primarily TMC contributors?

ARK are one of the good guys/gals/whatevers but still - we have poked a lot of holes in their analysis in a short time. The sad thing is that ARK are quite good - what a disheartening thought, since it follows that other analyst are misguided or just trash.

How cool would it be to be able to make a really comprehensive analysis - and also be (mostly) right.

I a way that is what we are doing already: By being a hive-mind of (mostly) like minded people we percolate our way toward knowledge and prediction

What we need is a cool name, some PR, and a loose corporate structure, based on future optimism, respect for Teslas great work - and silly jokes.
Actually, we could really, when you think about it, make a virtual company, based on TMC content and Ethereum smart contracts. Hm...

Then paying for our analysis would also be easy.
(I am sure you can employ smart contracts to exchange Ethereum to Bitcoin regularly)

I have some name candidates:

• TeslaHive
• TMCMetaMind
• TMC Research

 

[lafrisbee]

Cathie's guess was the correct play in tiebreakers for the NCAA Basketball tourney.
"Closest to the total without going over" Determines the winner.
All she really had to do was go one penny higher than the highest guess.

 

[FireMedic]

Sharply written - kudos!

Hm... makes me wonder...
I mean, we have a lot of talented TMC'er here from various walks of life.
How hard could it really be setting up an open source analysis firm consisting of primarily TMC contributors?

ARK are one of the good guys/gals/whatevers but still - we have poked a lot of holes in their analysis in a short time. The sad thing is that ARK are quite good - what a disheartening thought, since it follows that other analyst are misguided or just trash.

How cool would it be to be able to make a really comprehensive analysis - and also be (mostly) right.

I a way that is what we are doing already: By being a hive-mind of (mostly) like minded people we percolate our way toward knowledge and prediction

What we need is a cool name, some PR, and a loose corporate structure, based on future optimism, respect for Teslas great work - and silly jokes.
Actually, we could really, when you think about it, make a virtual company, based on TMC content and Ethereum smart contracts. Hm...

Then paying for our analysis would also be easy.
(I am sure you can employ smart contracts to exchange Ethereum to Bitcoin regularly)

I have some name candidates:

• TeslaHive
• TMCMetaMind
• TMC Research

I like TeslaHive

How about “AGF”

The Anti Gordo Fund

 

[willow_hiller]

If you thought Teslaquila was expensive... 2010 Tesla Motors IPO Wine Bottle - The only one known to exist. | eBay

 

[MC3OZ]

The Anti Gordo Fund

Sounds like a brand of insect repellent,

 

[Artful Dodger]

Looking at the Max Pain charts there is a huge spike at 700 for this week.

View attachment 647079

You're looking at the Options volume chart, not the Open Interest chart.

 

[JustMe]

If you thought Teslaquila was expensive... 2010 Tesla Motors IPO Wine Bottle - The only one known to exist. | eBay

It’s a bit pricey, but at least it has free shipping!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Decided to actually read into CNBC's latest article on Tesla Energy... I'm amazed they managed to write so many words with such little information behind them.

The gist:

• An employee filed a complaint about the fire risk of a third party hardware component (Amphenol H4 connector) in Spring 2019. This same component was identified as the likely cause of the fires at some Walmart locations. It was an industry-standard part at the time of installation, but about 1% were faulty according to a Tesla spokesperson: Tesla responds to Amazon fire report, says remaining solar installations are optimal | TESLARATI
• Starting around the same time the complaint was filed, Tesla went to an extensive effort to identify and replace all faulty connectors. Dubbed "Project Titan" there's a lot of media portraying these replacements as nefarious for some reason. E.g. Tesla secretly swapped faulty panels, resulting in fires: report
• In August 2020, 16 months after the initial complaint and after Tesla did much to mitigate the issue, the employee was fired (believing it to be connected to his complaint).

So there's nothing really new here except possible retaliation against an employee. But it wouldn't make much sense for them to fire him 16 months after working hard to mitigate the issues he raised. That, and the guy thinks that some of the faulty components could still be on some systems. But it sounds like he's grossly overestimating how many connectors were faulty to begin with.

That's one way to look at it. I read on CNBC that Elon Musk shot Paul Revere in the face and burned his family alive in a boiling cauldron of acid.

 

[keydiver]

I just hope that Tesla will be able to control the power that the electric motors provide in a durable way!

Perhaps the "carbon-sleeved rotors" are part of the answer? I think a teardown of a Plaid Model S is going to reveal all kinds of new tweaks and beefed-up components to make it capable of 1000+ HP. But, I'd like to know how they are going to "maintain peak power output all the way to top speed"?

 

[Beltsbear]

Would be better if the produced the Model 3 as well (rather than S/X) , and some new hatch back model.

Disagree. A second location for the S/X would be good, especially if it avoids Euro taxes. The S/X while big, make good airport taxi's and executive cars. They are not tuned to either application perfectly, but there are the best thing for it that is electric. The high import tariffs make them too expensive, but if they could be sold for the USA price (plus vat, but no boat fees or tarifs) they would sell probably twice as many.

Unless the 3 is lowered further in price, we don't need three locations making it. The Y is going to be more popular and does cannibalize model 3 sales.