Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Beltsbear]

Ohaha, why would they do that? Telsa has literally opened their patents on their existing chemistry. They WANT other people to switch to EVS.

It's the Maxwell sauce that's the new trade secret.

No, the Tesla/Panasonic chemistry is a trade secret. Charging patents are 'open source' but not the battery IP.

 

[1101011]

https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.nysd.501755/gov.uscourts.nysd.501755.27.0.pdf

The depth of knowledge on this board is simply amazing: much of the argument shown here has already been proffered...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Brief continues:

"As the SEC interprets and seeks to enforce it, the Order’s injunction is a de facto gag on a broad spectrum of statements implicating Tesla. Were the Order interpreted in this fashion, it would plainly fail strict scrutiny review. The government’s legitimate interest (shared by Musk) in protecting shareholders can be and has been served through less-restrictive means. These means include allowing Musk the discretion to make good-faith determinations of materiality (which is what the Order actually says) or by having the SEC go through normal enforcement proceedings under Rule 10b-5 targeting specific communications that the SEC contends are actionable."​

 

[Beltsbear]

If they only build the SR in China, they could build an out of date chemistry and still win on cost and performance.

Correct. They could probably get to 260 miles using pretty available cells. They will also get an improved pack design as it is a new factory and will contain all lessons learned from the Grohmann line.

 

[EVNow]

To me this part has always been the most important. The context. To any impartial observer, it was very clear what the tweet was about - not something where EM thought he was giving materially different information, but was tweeting proudly about the accomplishment.

Moreover, it is clear from the context of the tweet that it was celebratory and forward-looking—a
type of statement that courts have concluded is immaterial as a matter of law. Musk was rightfully
proud of the work he and his team had done to get Tesla from a point where it produced no cars to
a point where it would be producing hundreds of thousands of vehicles. Under no fair reading of
the materiality standard did Musk’s proud and optimistic restatement of publicly disclosed
information, coming after the market closed, “significantly alter” the total mix of information
available to investors.

 

[oneday]

Double post but wanted to share here.

My favorite quote from the response speaks to the 60 minutes interview:
“The SEC’s heavy reliance on this interview in its motion for contempt smacks of retaliation and censorship.
As an initial matter, and as the SEC admits, Tesla had not yet implemented the Policy at the time of the interview. Musk thus did not make (and could not have made) any statement during the interview regarding the Policy or his efforts to comply with it.”

 

[lascavarian]

https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.nysd.501755/gov.uscourts.nysd.501755.27.0.pdf

After breezing through this, it comes to mind that this might have assisted the rise of the SP today. Flouting on the wind one could say...

 

[Antares Nebula]

Model 3 Deliveries Q1 2019 (Prelim.)

5,000

20,000

20,000

22,500

67,500


ValueAnalyst on Twitter

 

[sparcs]

After reading this https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.nysd.501755/gov.uscourts.nysd.501755.27.0.pdf 3-1 team EM!

Thanks for this. Any investor who was worried about the SEC should read this. I read all 25 pages.

It was well written and systematically takes apart the SECs claims. There's no attempt to sway or manipulate information by Elon's attorneys. Just a systematic statement of facts and the order of events for the tweets that day.

 

[Johnny Ma]

"On Sunday, February 24, 2019, the SEC sent a further request for information to Musk and Tesla, demanding a response on the same day (i.e., on Sunday). See Feb. 24, 2019 Email from C. Crumpton to B. Bondi, attached hereto as Exhibit 5. Musk’s counsel responded that he could not provide an immediate response, as the request sought substantial information and it was a Sunday, but that counsel would likely be able to respond in full on the following day, Monday, February 25. See Feb. 24, 2019 Email from B. Bondi to C. Crumpton, attached hereto as Exhibit 6. Rather than providing Tesla or Musk a reasonable opportunity to respond, on Monday, February 25, 2019, the SEC moved for an order to show cause why Musk should not be held in contempt."

This, after the SEC had been communicating back and forth with Elon/his lawyers for days. Sounds like they got angry that they didn't get what they wanted right away. Explains why their letter to the judge seemed hastily put together. Hope the judge tears into Crumpton.

 

[Sudre]

I know you all read this..

"Finally, on February 19, 2019—the same day that Musk posted his comments on Twitter—Tesla filed its Form 10-K for 2018, which reiterates information...... annualized output rate in excess of 500,000 Model 3 vehicles sometime between the fourth quarter of 2019 ...."

GEESH.This completely blows the SECs case out of the water.

 

[mekberg]

"The constitutional concerns implicated by the SEC’s reinterpretation of the Order are
heightened because the SEC is seeking to procure through this contempt proceeding what it cannot
obtain through the exercise of its congressionally-delegated authority."

ROASTED

 

[Cosmacelf]

Audie, sorry to have been off topic, but those guys were talking about my favorite subject (after EV's of course) so I throw myself to the "mercy of the court" (that being you )

You have some, ah, unusual interests...

 

[AudubonB]

Were Prior Restraint on Speech (posts) to have been enforced, then none of you poor souls would have had the opportunity to learn tonight that term new to you all - tumblehome .

Ain't Free Speech a great thing? Now: back On Topic, me hearties.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Why is The SEC Picking on Elon Musk Instead of Mark Zuckerberg?

"Just consider what we know about Facebook. A consolidated class action suit filed on October 15, 2018, against Facebook and CEO Mark Zuckerberg, COO Sheryl Sandberg, and CFO David Wehner alleges the defendants made "materially false and misleading statements and omissions concerning Facebook's privacy and data protection practices," "employed devices, schemes and artifices to defraud...and engaged in acts, practices, and a course of business that operated as a fraud or deceit," impacting the company's stock price and impacting its investors. Far from puffery, in July 2018, Facebook lost $119 billion in market value in one day -- the single largest drop in the U.S. stock market history, following an earnings call which revealed a decline in Facebook users and a lack of readiness to comply with the EU's General Data Protection Regulation."

 

[Singer3000]

Im sure this has already been discussed, just wandering if we have heard from any reputable sources where model 3 production is at. As I am wandering in the huge spike in vins registered is just because of international being registered early or something like that

My understanding is that VINs issued in 2018 but left unused must be retired. Based upon production of 153k in 2018 and VIN issuance of 185k, this would mean there were 32,200 such VINs at the end of 2018.

There is presumably a certain desired VIN buffer for a given model type so that VIN registration at no point threatens the production schedule. We might surmise that 32k was the appropriate amount based upon Tesla's anticipated ramp. However even if production rates remained exactly constant in Q1 vs Q4, this buffer would need to be materially bigger because: a) VINs for international deliveries are different, and b) there are more model types now being produced (e.g. MR, SR+, SR).

So we're left with two bearish explanations for the massive rise in VINs:

• The overall buffer needed to be replenished due to the passing of the calendar year
• The overall buffer itself needed to be enlarged due to an increase in variability of vehicle type.

Quarter over quarter so far the increase in VINs has been 73% (131k vs 76k). The bullish view would be that at least a good portion of this increase must also be explained by an increased production rate (or at least the anticipation of a suddenly much higher production rate exiting Q1).

All in all there seems to be too many unanswerables to bet based upon the VINs this quarter.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Excerpts from section: "A. The 7:15 Tweet Was Not Material"

The immateriality of the 7:15 tweet is confirmed by an analysis of the after-hours trading market.

After Musk posted the 7:15 tweet, there was no noticeable change in either the after-hours trading price or volume.

(noting a .09% change in the stock price after the 7:15 tweet, and that after-hours trading volume after the 7:15 tweet was less than .01% of the shares of outstanding common stock).

This is probative evidence that the 7:15 tweet was not material to shareholders.​

This simple truth was clearly presented here on TMC after the SEC action:

Which was further repackaged as an infographic and retweeted by our own @KarenRei on Feb 26.

Here is the Google stock chart for TSLA at 8:00 pm on Feb 19, 2019:
(clearly there's no reaction by the Market after 7:15 pm to any 'News')

So in summary, the SEC is going to lose their case, and could also face sanctions by the Judge for their unwarranted attempt at 'Prior Restraint', a serious violation of their mandate and the First Amendment.

Regards,
Lodger

 

[Krugerrand]

After reading this https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.nysd.501755/gov.uscourts.nysd.501755.27.0.pdf 3-1 team EM!

I suspect Elon's attorneys maybe among us TMC??? all points were brought up here TMC.

Well there goes my wish for the following response: Because. Duh.

 

[AlMc]

Great rebuttal by Elon's legal team. I really hope we get the judges decision before Thursday. Would be a bit of a downer to have this silliness hanging over the stock on Friday

This has become testosterone fight: SEC will release the reply Friday morning taking some out of the wind of model Y reveal.....count on it.

 

[JustAaronnoraA]

This has become testosterone fight: SEC will release the reply Friday morning taking some out of the wind of model Y reveal.....count on it.

WHat would happen if the judge dismisses the case on friday? Not that it could happen that fast but just to counter your point.