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Why 2025? All Tesla is missing is the 'Maxcells' and some production facilities. China can do that in 1 year. They are the obvious 1st market for the 'Model 2'. Add production at GF1 a year after that, once profits are rolling in?

Cheers!
2021 - Volume production of Y.

2023 - Volume production of Pickup.

2025 - Volume production of 2.

I'm not sure Maxcells would be ready in a year - and in 1 year GF1 would be producing Model 3 in volume.

When EM says 3 to 4 years - that means 2023+ to get going. It is possible they can do this in 2023 in China as they concentrate on the Pickup in US. But in general I'd expect them to first get new models perfected in US before manufacturing them in China.
 
The spin is FUD, but I'd like some educated guess from the community here:
Briefing: Tesla Finance VP Quits
Tesla is a tough place to work in. Very high demand and hectic pace of work. People burn out very fast.

ps : And as the above post notes something to do with store closure. May be he told EM about pros of closing the stores without telling him about the lease breakage and other problems.
 
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3. Meh. Anyone new to EVs needs to LIVE with one for a couple weeks to fully understand. A test drive doesn’t cut it.
This. Everything is right there in #3.

I got my S60 in Feb 2013. Most of my friends and co-workers were like, "Really cool car but we will wait and see how this charging thing pans out." After they witnessed me drive all over the country on trips and never having to call them because I was stranded, they quickly changed their tune. Now the ones that can afford one are picking up their Model 3s with no test drive needed. Others are simply beside themselves waiting for a Tesla truck or SUV they can afford. They are excited about the Y.

Galleries will work well in my opinion. Sitting in the car for head clearance and seat comfort is pretty important. Test drives are easy enough to arrange via an appointment but in no way does that help an ICE driver understand EV driving... understand living with an EV.

Those that have ridden with me get it better. Even better when I can get them to drive on a trip. I can point at the battery meter and say, "Look after driving this car as long as I have I can see that (point at battery symbol and ideal mile rating) I have about 40kWh left. Looking here (point at trip info) I see I am using 325 Wh/mile. So I know I have over 100 miles of range left. I don't really need more info than that to be comfortable. I know I have 60 miles left to drive so plenty of 'fuel'. Now if that 325 wh/mile suddenly starts shooting up I'll look more carefully just like if your gas gauge suddenly started dropping." Then you show the the usage screen and how the car pretty much does the math for them and they get much more comfortable knowing how it all comes together.

I remember when my wife was driving us back from Florida and the light bulb finally went on in her head after watching the numbers. Now she can get a better Wh/mile than I could ever dream of.

That's what steps people back when buying EVs, not understanding the tech. It seems so hard from the outside. A 10 minute test drive really isn't going to help much.
 
They do where Elon is from.

Elon should totally start inserting the word "human" into sentences where it doesn't belong, in random contexts. E.g.:

---
Reporter: "Were there any parts of the Dragon 2 mission that you found particularly challenging?"
Elon: "Well, docking with your human space station...."
---
Elon: "Personally, I’m most excited by the Tesla Truck. Maybe it will be too futuristic for most humans, but I love it."
---
Elon: "I do not respect your SEC. I respect your human justice system. But I do not respect the SEC."
---

Etc. ;) I wonder how many people would just let it slide vs. directly challenging him on, "Wait, what do you mean, 'human' ?" To which he could reply, "I think you're missing the point by focusing on specific words. OF COURSE I too am a human, and enjoy doing human things, like talking and sleeping and digesting things with my internal organs. What I was saying was...."
 
Took a closer look at the Tesla Y teaser- & the livestream-page:
  • Console logs
    … another Skyrim easter egg. Already discovered by reddit a few hours ago

  • There's a Model Y hero teaser @1x and @3x but not at the rather default @2x, which is a bit unusual.

  • Typo:
    // MediaBox shows either an iframe with an embeddede video as described in the stage details, or a countdown to the start of the livestream

  • So, yeah, there'll be a countdown to the start of the livestream.

  • Countdown is synced via a keep-alive get. Current response (aka updateID) is 47, probably meaning "show leadForm", 0 is the default/fallback value.

  • Reservation (not pre-order?) should go up right after the livestream (referring to PostReservationForm / PostReservationPage).

  • Use of string interpolation is inconsistent, I think.

  • The MediaBox/VideoBox will receive the livestream link via https://livestreamapi.tesla.com/api/stageDetails. The livestream will be shown in an iFrame, which could either come from Tesla or for example YouTube.

  • Site supports two languages: English and Chinese.

  • Model Y page is almost pure HTML+CSS (with tiny bits of js), livestream page is written in React

  • They're adding hashes (see: https://livestream.tesla.com/static/media/teaser.214c8f37.jpg) to prevent URL guessing. Btw, this images doesn't have the "NICE TRY" easter egg.
 
If you actually read that pamphlet you linked, it says there in BOLD: The rates shown in this document are for electric generation/supply only.
SCE will separately charge you for the distribution portion. All utilities do this (at least the ones I know of). As a customer, you have a choice whether to be charged for generation by the main utility or 3rd party.

So, definitely not as cheap as you think. More likely about 2-3X at least of what you calculated.

O.T.


Does anybody know?

Is on peak really 58-87 cents per kWh?
 
From SushiBallZ (u/SushiBallZ) - Reddit on reddit -- a mock-up based on the teaser. Looks pretty good in my opinion.

alBHFak.png
Shared on M3OC (with links to your post and to Reddit). Thank you for sharing this! Looks great!
Model Y Unveil Event - MEGATHREAD
 
I've to wonder - if someone wants to use SuperCharger network, how much would Tesla charge per car - $2k ? Could be as much as the margin the OEM is getting for the car.
It'd be best to do a straight pass-thru to the customer. The whole fleet would need the charging hardware, and the development costs are sunk as soon as the first one is working to spec. Why not spread that cost across the whole production run?

Unless some OEMs are clinging to the idea they'll only sell "city cars" which don't need DC fast charging (and ignore the urban chargers which apartment dwellers depend upon).

If so, they deserve their new place on the scrapheap of history.

Cheers!
 
Took a closer look at the Tesla Y teaser- & the livestream-page:
  • Console logs … another Skyrim easter egg. Already discovered by reddit a few hours ago

  • There's a Model Y hero teaser @1x and @3x but not at the rather default @2x, which is a bit unusual.

  • Typo:

  • So, yeah, there'll be a countdown to the start of the livestream.

  • Countdown is synced via a keep-alive get. Current response (aka updateID) is 47, probably meaning "show leadForm", 0 is the default/fallback value.

  • Reservation (not pre-order?) should go up right after the livestream (referring to PostReservationForm / PostReservationPage).

  • Use of string interpolation is inconsistent, I think.

  • The MediaBox/VideoBox will receive the livestream link via https://livestreamapi.tesla.com/api/stageDetails. The livestream will be shown in an iFrame, which could either come from Tesla or for example YouTube.

  • Site supports two languages: English and Chinese.

  • Model Y page is almost pure HTML+CSS (with tiny bits of js), livestream page is written in React

  • They're adding hashes (see: https://livestream.tesla.com/static/media/teaser.214c8f37.jpg) to prevent URL guessing. Btw, this images doesn't have the "NICE TRY" easter egg.

And that’s why Tesla is so closed lipped about everything. People can’t even just wait a few days to be surprised.
 
It'd be best to do a straight pass-thru to the customer. The whole fleet would need the charging hardware, and the development costs are sunk as soon as the first one is working to spec. Why not spread that cost across the whole production run?
You mean OEM gives the option for a customer to buy from Tesla directly ? Still, how much can Tesla charge ? If supercharger is the moat, how much should the access cost ?

For Tesla there is also one time cost of R&D to let some other cars apart from Teslas charge.

BTW, I think the SC is really a moat only in NA. In EU there will probably be enough public investment that makes SC not that much of a moat. Probably in China too.
 
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The new provider is Clean Power Alliance, they are supposed to be cheaper than SCE.

But maybe not...

Most likely not much difference +/-. Maybe $0.01 difference. The option of a new provider is there mostly so you can feel better knowing the electricity is generated from a cleaner, renewable source. At least in my area, by having solar panels and choosing the 3rd party option, I get cash credit of net surplus (on the generation side) at the retail rate at end of year rather than a use-it-or-lose-it kWh surplus from PG&E and taking the measly wholesale rate. (Again, not on the distribution side though).
 
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BTW., the far more important Tesla news today is this one from China:

Tesla in talks with China's CATL for rechargeable batteries: Bloomberg

(Reuters) - Tesla Inc is in discussions with Chinese battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd (CATL) for ordering rechargeable batteries to power its Model 3 cars, Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the matter.

CATL has been in talks with Tesla officials about the required specifications for the batteries, according to the Bloomberg report, which added that there was no guarantee that an agreement would be reached.​

I'm wondering whether this was a 'requirement' by China for the Shanghai Gigafactory, or whether it's a high-stakes poker game with Panasonic?
If they only build the SR in China, they could build an out of date chemistry and still win on cost and performance.
 
Was taking a peak at the forum around lunch and briefly read where Tesla sales in Norway were north of a 100 cars per day. ( can’t rememver the exact number). If Tesla makes about a thousand cars per day is that not like 10 percent of the companies sales are to one country...with about 5 million people...in the North??? WTF . Am I figuring that out right?