Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

That's what I thought...at 800, 770, 750, 700, 680. Bag-holding leaper present and accounted for.

All depends on your intent for those LEAPS. I bought mine not to get some crazy high returns, but to simply increase my share count by about 25%. I’ll be converting those leaps into shares on expiration.....and I’m still very confident they will be in the money

 

[SOULPEDL]

You bastards! I'm officially in my own danger zone.

 

[MABMAB]

Yawn!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I mean if you’re buying shares you’re fine. Can’t see the stock going lower than 500 before Q2 numbers are out. But anyon buying options for Q2 and Q3 will lose their money

I think it's pretty clear we need to be doing something closer to the opposite of our consensus logical move.

When we're absolutely certain a blowout 1Q will spike/squeeze the SP..... walk away. When this whole board is miserable for a few weeks and sees no light at the end of the tunnel....leverage!

Lol...what a mess. These hedge fund clowns really executed well so far. Hopefully it backfires soon on FSD, or a split, or at least 2Q deliveries.

 

[Knightshade]

Even without government interventions, I'd expect EVs to be >50% of sales in the US by ~2027, and 90% by 2035 anyway.

I don't believe battery production estimates- even the most optimistic ones- support those expectations (2027 in particular).

IIRC Elon said he thinks 30 million EVs a year industry wide before 2030 was possible (with 2/3rds of those being from Tesla) but that's still only about 35-37ish percent of worldwide car sales per year.

Especially since many companies are shipping more of the small # of EVs their battery supplies allow for to the EU since the fines are higher there for being out of compliance with emissions limits.

 

[asburgers]

You bastards! I'm officially in my own danger zone.

View attachment 661002

 

[corduroy]

Yawn!

I would be far from yawning, playing with those kind of numbers!

 

[ZachF]

I don't believe battery production estimates- even the most optimistic ones- support those expectations (2027 in particular).

IIRC Elon said he thinks 30 million EVs a year industry wide before 2030 was possible (with 2/3rds of those being from Tesla) but that's still only about 35-37ish percent of worldwide car sales per year.

Especially since many companies are shipping more of the small # of EVs their battery supplies allow for to the EU since the fines are higher there for being out of compliance with emissions limits.

ICE sales will decline faster than EV sales increase during the steep part of the adoption S-curve. During a good year the US will sell 17m vehicles a year, in 2027 they will be 50% of perhaps 14m.

Also, this is just the US, I expect the ROW outside the US, EU, and China will lag these numbers a few years as the economic crossover point is farther away for smaller/cheaper automobiles.

 

[Knightshade]

ICE sales will decline faster than EV sales increase during the steep part of the adoption S-curve. During a good year the US will sell 17m vehicles a year, in 2027 they will be 50% of perhaps 14m.

That's possible- but still doesn't provide enough batteries to get to 50% EVs in the US by 2027.

Also, this is just the US, I expect the ROW outside the US, EU, and China will lag these numbers a few years.

Right now EV adoption in the EU and China is well ahead of the US.

What makes you think OEMs will magically start putting the US ahead of the EU/China for EVs? (and that consumers will all go along with that)?

New car sales being 50% EV by 2027 in the EU seems a lot more likely than hitting that in the US by then- there's simply not enough batteries (or battery factories on the drawing board) to get the non-Tesla OEMs up to that kind of production between now and then.

 

[ZachF]

That's possible- but still doesn't provide enough batteries to get to 50% EVs in the US by 2027.





Why?

Right now EV adoption in those markets is well ahead of the US.

What makes you think OEMs will magically start putting the US ahead of the EU/China for EVs? (and that consumers will all go along with that)?

New car sales being 50% EV by 2027 in the EU seems a lot more likely than hitting that in the US by then.

You are misreading what I wrote, I said the rest of the world outside of the US, EU, and China. meaning it will take longer for the ROW outside those 3 areas where small cheap ICEs tend to dominate, and competitive EVs require lower $/KWh battery prices to compete than the average $38k MSRP price like the US.

 

[asburgers]

$641. I feel like Chad.

 

[ZachF]

Also, 7m EVs sales in the US by 2027 would require 700GWh of battery capacity... I can see Giga Texas supplying a few hundred GWh by then by itself...

 

[Knightshade]

You are misreading what I wrote, I said the rest of the world outside of the US, EU, and China. meaning it will take longer for the ROW outside those 3 areas where small cheap ICEs tend to dominate, and competitive EVs require lower $/KWh battery prices to compete than the average $38k MSRP price like the US.

Yes I edited my post already to correct.

Point being 50% in EU by 2027 is possible- 50% EV in the US likely is not.

There's simply not enough batteries being made (or projected to be made) by then given market share in China and EU is well ahead of US for EVs, so much new production will be focused there.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

In other news:

 

[keydiver]

Could be the power grid next.

Thank goodness I have my own grid.

 

[Prunesquallor]

This is stupid.

Changed my $800.85 Chad stop buy to a market buy ($644).

My bitcoins are up 20%. Pulling them out to buy TSLA.

 

[corduroy]

In other news:

View attachment 661008
View attachment 661009

And Honda is up 1.8% on this news.

 

[asburgers]

This is stupid.

Changed my $800.85 Chad stop buy to a market buy ($644).

My bitcoins are up 20%. Pulling them out to buy TSLA.

I made $5 mining my first portion of a coin in the last 12hrs (should have done this in 2014 when I first knew about it - better late than never). Pulling them out to buy a Happy Meal™.

 

[lafrisbee]

Jabejus cat...get your facts straight. They are dumping them in the ocean.
Wow I had no idea you had been fooled
#nodemand

NO, YOU ARE WRONG.
They are taking them out to converted oil rigs and placing them on starships which are immediately sent to Mars.

 

[lafrisbee]

Now include the scarcity of truck drivers to deliver the gasoline (also raising prices)... can anyone say $5/gal this summer and very long lines?

A TSLA Stockholder can only dream!
Imagine....