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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Absolutely this negatively affects Tsla. He is forcing people who don't believe in meme coins into owning it indirectly as shareholders.

If Elon wants to prove a point about fiat currency, create another business and have at it hoss.
Agreed 100%. This just pours fuel on the fire for people who think tesla is not a serious company. I am strongly opposed to cryptocurrency, for energy-waste reasons, and object to tesla having any association whatsoever with it.
I bet to date not a single tesla has been bought with bitcoin.
 
Absolutely this negatively affects Tsla. He is forcing people who don't believe in meme coins into owning it indirectly as shareholders.

If Elon wants to prove a point about fiat currency, create another business and have at
Agreed 100%. This just pours fuel on the fire for people who think tesla is not a serious company. I am strongly opposed to cryptocurrency, for energy-waste reasons, and object to tesla having any association whatsoever with it.
I bet to date not a single tesla has been bought with bitcoin.
Ya don’t want Tesla to be bag holder for all things crypto
While well aware the Bitcoin trade worked out well so far
 
According to MaxPain data released at 7 a.m. ET (Max pain = 665), Options writers (mostly MMs) would be on the hook for about $232.5M in payouts if we closed Friday at the current pre-market price (~606).

I expect some attempt to trigger stops, and some attempts to get options holders to close their contracts.
How much will they lose with the current pre market price of 595 ?
EDIT: How much will they lose with the current pre market price of 588 ?
 
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Agreed 100%. This just pours fuel on the fire for people who think tesla is not a serious company. I am strongly opposed to cryptocurrency, for energy-waste reasons, and object to tesla having any association whatsoever with it.
I bet to date not a single tesla has been bought with bitcoin.
Yep. GLJ was straight on this on Twitter.
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: TheTalkingMule
Shanghai producing at a 40k monthly rate? That's slightly higher than the 450k annual production mentioned in the Q1 investor deck. We're well on track for the million units this year if both Fremont and Shanghai are producing at ~500k 3/Y each, with S/X to pick up the spare.

Acutal production at Shanghai was probably a bit higher, due to the wave, perhaps by a few thousand. They are probably also continuing to ramp production squeezing a bit more out of the lines.

It looks like Q2 production will be 130k-140k in Shanghai and over 100k in Fremont (how much over depends on S/X production), this is higher than estimates I've seen.

For Q3 the new General Assembly line at Fremont should have some production, GA lines are reasonably easy to spool up, and GA 4 took only a few months from start of tent construction. Fremont should see full model S/X production. The 4 or 5 new buildings in Shanghai may start to see production in Q3, one is likely the design center another for stamping and another seems to have a casting area, probably limited production in Q3 with ramp continuing into Q4 and Q1 next year.

For Q4 there will be some Berlin and Austin production.

So my guess is:
Q1 : 184k
Q2 : 250k (35% QoQ) (140k Shanghai, 110k Fremont)
Q3 : 295k (18% QoQ) (150k Shanghai, 145k Fremont)
Q4 : 340k (15% QoQ) (160k Shanghai, 150k Fremont, 20k Austin, 10k Berlin)
giving a grand total for the year of 1,069k. That is for production, deliveries will be a few less as inventory in units, if not in days of production, will increase.
 
How much will they lose with the current pre market price of 595 ?
EDIT: How much will they lose with the current pre market price of 588 ?

Well for one thing, a Pre-Market low of 582.28 will hit the MA(200) at the Open (it was 582.10 at yesterday's Close).

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​

This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated May 11, 2021 07:31 AM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale$593.22 -35.82 (-5.69%)
Pre-Market Volume1,043,645
Pre-Market High$620.01 (04:00:00 AM)
Pre-Market Low$582.28 (07:42:28 AM)

Here's how Max Pain payouts look for a few selected strike prices:

Options.MaxPain.2021-05-14.Mon.Data.png


TL;dr a Friday close with the SP at 585 and current open contracts would cost Options writers (mostly MMs) about $393M.

That's gotta leave a mark. :p

Cheers!

EDIT: Here's the NASDAQ Realtime chart (which becomes available starting at 8:00 ET) Notice the big cliff when the 7 am cowboys enter the paddock:

TSLA.2021-05-11.08-00.png
 
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Bitcoin is fine for me, even though I still not fully understand it. From what I have read and heard from experts in the field, Bitcoin is probably here to stay. However, Elon's tweets about involving Tesla with Dogecoin scare me a bit.

The problem that I have with Dogecoin is that it is a meme coin. A world where something that is called "Dogecoin" and that has the picture of a popular meme of a Shiba Inu on it is an official currency would be absurd in my eyes., and I am relatively young. I 100% understand the humor behind it and it makes me laugh as well. Elon can of course do whatever he wants with his money and if he wants to pump it up using his twitter account then that is fine by me. However, in my opinion, Tesla, which employs ~80,000 people and that is critical for the future of humanity does not need side-projects like this, which introduce unnecessary risks and drama.
 
FUD everywhere. Reuters reporting Tesla looking to bail from China and stopping a land purchase....that they had never said they were interested in. Bloomberg reporting that Tesla sales are down month over month in China - no mention that the balance of production was exported or the production itself (40K).

And of course we have the leftover stories from yesterday regarding the Texas crash where the NTSB stated someone was driving and that autopilot could not have been engaged - yet some how all the headlines read that the mystery has increased and the tone of the articles is that Tesla is in trouble.

This is a tough game with big boys. The entire market is being taken down, and they are definitely playing favorites - big bullseye on Tesla.

I have come to terms with the fact that TSLA might hit 300 before it is over. Don’t think it will, but this allows me to function better o_O.
 
FUD everywhere. Reuters reporting Tesla looking to bail from China and stopping a land purchase....that they had never said they were interested in. Bloomberg reporting that Tesla sales are down month over month in China - no mention that the balance of production was exported or the production itself (40K).

And of course we have the leftover stories from yesterday regarding the Texas crash where the NTSB stated someone was driving and that autopilot could not have been engaged - yet some how all the headlines read that the mystery has increased and the tone of the articles is that Tesla is in trouble.

This is a tough game with big boys. The entire market is being taken down, and they are definitely playing favorites - big bullseye on Tesla.

I have come to terms with the fact that TSLA might hit 300 before it is over. Don’t think it will, but this allows me to function better o_O.

Same sentiment. I don't think it's been this bad since 2013. It's pretty crazy. I'm just waiting for the Gordon Johnson appearances on CNBC now. Oddly enough that Reuters article is terrible enough that I think Tesla/Elon should say something.
 
Same sentiment. I don't think it's been this bad since 2013. It's pretty crazy. I'm just waiting for the Gordon Johnson appearances on CNBC now. Oddly enough that Reuters article is terrible enough that I think Tesla/Elon should say something.
Yes, peak FUD which often translates to a near bottom. Also, a decent portion of the overall selling, imo, is driven by having to pay the tax man on Monday.
 
Well for one thing, a Pre-Market low of 582.28 will hit the MA(200) at the Open (it was 582.10 at yesterday's Close).

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​

This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated May 11, 2021 07:31 AM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale$593.22 -35.82 (-5.69%)
Pre-Market Volume1,043,645
Pre-Market High$620.01 (04:00:00 AM)
Pre-Market Low$582.28 (07:42:28 AM)

Here's how Max Pain payouts look for a few selected strike prices:

View attachment 661248

TL;dr a Friday close with the SP at 585 and current open contracts would cost Options writers (mostly MMs) about $393M.

That's gotta leave a mark. :p

Cheers!

EDIT: Here's the NASDAQ Realtime chart (which becomes available starting at 8:00 ET) Notice the big cliff when the 7 am cowboys enter the paddock:

View attachment 661252
Where does that max pain table come from?
 
FTSE is down 2.5% NASDAQ futures down 1.5% and Tesla is down about 1/3 over the last few months. It's all doom and gloom! Except it isn't. It is exactly at times like this that I remember the single most important thing I have learnt in 30 years investing. BUY LOW, SELL HIGH. It's not exactly a secret, but it something that many investors fail to apply because emotions take over. When prices are down like this, they get depressed and panic sell. This is wrong. At the other end of the scale when prices are racing ahead they have a fear of missing out and chase an increasing price higher.
With Tesla, I sold some (not much) of my holdings when the price was in the 800's and high 700's and ever since then I have been buying in small packets, as it has moved down through the low 700's and 600's. I continue to do this and picked up some more in the pre-market today @ 589. If it goes down further from here, then I'll be buying more.

I know I'm stating the obvious, but it might be helpful to some people.

On a side note, I've been buying gold over the last few months. Theoretically as a hedge against $ inflation but if I'm honest it's because I like looking at it and holding it - so much nicer than digital stuff :)
 
FTSE is down 2.5% NASDAQ futures down 1.5% and Tesla is down about 1/3 over the last few months. It's all doom and gloom! Except it isn't. It is exactly at times like this that I remember the single most important thing I have learnt in 30 years investing. BUY LOW, SELL HIGH. It's not exactly a secret, but it something that many investors fail to apply because emotions take over. When prices are down like this, they get depressed and panic sell. This is wrong. At the other end of the scale when prices are racing ahead they have a fear of missing out and chase an increasing price higher.
With Tesla, I sold some (not much) of my holdings when the price was in the 800's and high 700's and ever since then I have been buying in small packets, as it has moved down through the low 700's and 600's. I continue to do this and picked up some more in the pre-market today @ 589. If it goes down further from here, then I'll be buying more.

I know I'm stating the obvious, but it might be helpful to some people.

On a side note, I've been buying gold over the last few months. Theoretically as a hedge against $ inflation but if I'm honest it's because I like looking at it and holding it - so much nicer than digital stuff :)
Aren't stocks a great hedge against inflation? Especially right now...