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If the Y was taken down for 2 weeks and knocked 6k off... We are back to the 4k in Feb. That would still take a drop off of 3 production for the 25k in total. It would still be more production than any month except March and Dec for the 3.

I really hope it is 40k, and I'm completely wrong here. The 25k just makes more sense if the Y line was down for 2 weeks... that would be 2/3 of the drop right there.

Apply Occam's Razor here. It doesn't make any sense for the export number, which has always been broken out separately, to suddenly be rolled into the delivery number, especially when en-route shipments are never counted as deliveries, and exports would further be counted as deliveries within the destination country of sale.
 
Apply Occam's Razor here. It doesn't make any sense for the export number, which has always been broken out separately, to suddenly be rolled into the delivery number, especially when en-route shipments are never counted as deliveries, and exports would further be counted as deliveries within the destination country of sale.

If there are articles from Jan stating sales of ~15k with ~6k exports, then I'd certainly agree with you.
 
What is source for this? I see 23K sales in China with no exports in December. I see 15K sales in China in January. January doesnt count the exports to other markets. December had no exports to other markets.
He’s not understanding the sales verses production. As you pointed out, there were no exports from China in December. Jan had exports. Production levels did not drop
 
Seems like an obv buying opportunity to me. So I bought.

Numbers are clearly great, deliveries for the year should be great. And they are raising prices. And soon tax rebates. With Wrights law and double production numbers, with less deferred revenue, with higher prices etc, just do the math. Wallstreet may be slow and stupid, but when the numbers hit them in the face will eventually update their spreedsheets. We know what those spreadsheets will be saying, it is pretty obv if you just do the math.
 
If the Y was taken down for 2 weeks ...

Today is the first time I heard about a 2 week shutdown of the MIC Y production line. What is the source of this information? It's strange that none of the news outlets and twitter accounts many of us follow here mentioned it up until now. It's not just some neglible interruption.
 
The China State-Affiliated Media is reporting 25k sold in China AND 14k exported.
Of course, the wording from the Global Times could be incorrect. Hopefully we will get some clarity from other sources.

View attachment 661279
Wait... I'm trusting "China state-affiliated media" over our own?
Seems so.
 
He’s not understanding the sales verses production. As you pointed out, there were no exports from China in December. Jan had exports. Production levels did not drop

Even if you take Troy's numbers of Jan 2021 including exports from that line, and compare them to Dec 2020, you have a ~2k drop. Production is not always flat and once a rate is hit it doesn't always stay up.
 
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If there are articles from Jan stating sales of ~15k with ~6k exports, then I'd certainly agree with you.

When actually quarterly earnings came out and when other pacific markets reported monthly numbers, it was confirmed that Tesla had exported at least 7k vehicles in Jan. Come on man I shouldn’t have to dig for this information for you
 
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When actually quarterly earnings came out and when other pacific markets reported monthly numbers, it was confirmed that Tesla had exported at least 7k vehicles in Jan. Come on man I should have be dig for this information for you
If that is how they are reporting, that would make sense and people (including myself) are interpreting the numbers wrong. That will be cleared up within a day or so.