Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AudubonB]

Q2 Deliveries Continue on Extraordinary Pace

I believe the loading of ships for Q2 is now complete and we can see that loading times in Q2 exceeded Q1 by 21%.
If Tesla can continue this strong execution for the remainder of the Qtr in US, Canada and China, bulls will be very happy with the results.
See some additional comments below the table below.

View attachment 666406

Some additional points:

• I've included ships to Australia from Shanghai (as reported by our member Mr Miserable) which are not included in Franco's spreadsheet.
• Local deliveries in the US/Canada appear to be on hold as Delivery Centers wait for a firmware update. Deliveires are estimated to start in June. I believe that Tesla has planned for this so despite the high number of deliveries needed in June, I believe Tesla will execute well.
• As you can see in the chart, loading times to Europe are flat as Tesla prioritized AP (likely SKorea). Brace yourself for the FUD that demand is gone in EU as country xxx is down x%.
• The Q2 11% increase from Fremont is impressive considering space constraints with this facility......Tesla continues to find a way to increase capacity.

Hey Mr. @The Accountant sir -
Am very very happy to note the number of significant digits in your ship enumeration rows AND columns.
Any alteration therefrom might engender that....sinking...feeling, donchaknow.

 

[Tslynk67]

So the daily Max Pain calculation is now out, and as suspected the number of Puts (and the no. of Calls) at the 600 Strike has increased substantially since yesterday: (7 a.m. data)

View attachment 666407
1 day change in open contracts at the 600 Strike:

• Puts increased from 5,784 to 7,436 (+28.6%)
• Calls increased from 7,958 to 8,720 (+9.8%)

View attachment 666411

I'm not an Options gambler, but this week's expiries look like a natural setup for a straddle*.

*Not Advice.

Cheers!

I was expecting MP to increase a bit before Friday... maybe tomorrow... As it stands, the MM's lose either side of $600, but I betcha they'd prefer to close below

 

[The Accountant]

Do you know if Shanghai ships are still prioritizing out of the country vs within the country right now?

I believe at the moment they are prioritizing local China deliveries. 4 Ships did go out in May but I believe one of those ships was loaded early in the month with April Inventory. We will see China exports in May but it should be lower than what we saw in April.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Care to share more? Something that helps with better understanding what you mean there?

Okay, I think FINRA has a new, large retail broker who is also conducting proprietary trading (maybe Wells-Fargo).

Yesterday, the ratio of FINRA trades per Total number of trades for TSLA on NASDAQ was at it's highest level since April 2020 (by percentile rank - see PINK rows). And SHORT/FINRA proportion was also above it's 1-year high:

So this is a recent shift in the data, one that does correspond to the recent initiation of TSLA converage from Wells-Fargo. It's too soon to make inferences based on this limited data, but we'll continue to watch.

If it DOES turn out to be true, that's a good thing (even if W/F is trading bearishly). The recent problems IMO have been to do with lack of transparency in reporting, and FINRA members make daily reports on their short trades (we see the aggregate data only, but trends can be identified with statistical analysis).

The truth will win out in the end given a level playing field. Naked shorting is a bane on the market, and must be curtained (SEC, do you job).

I'm confident that TSLA is headed to new heights in the coming years.

Cheers!

 

[st_lopes]

I don't see much difference in launching FSD subscriptions early or late in the Qtr. However, to minimize the financial impact, I do see a benefit of launching FSD subscriptions only when FSD has been fully achieved. Here's why:

Tesla recognizes about 60% as revenue immediately upon FSD purchase. So when a customer purchases FSD for $10k, $6k is recognized as Revenue and $4k is deferred. If that customer now buys the subscription at $200/month, Tesla would only get $200-$600 in that Quarter vs $6,000 vs the buy option.

Today, its 100% Buy and 0% Subscribe. In the future, if this changes to 25% Buy and 75% subscribe, there's a hit to revenue and cash flow.
If they launch the subscription service when FSD is feature complete, then they can recognize $10k for the 25% purchasing rather than $6k, offsetting some of the impact of subscriptions.

In the long run, subscriptions are better as the take rate will increase but there is a short term impact to revenues and cash flow.

It takes about 30 months for a $199 subscription to catch up the the revenue recognized on a $10k up front purchase.

So for there to be minimal impact to short term margins, cash, and revenues, take rate would need to increase dramatically. Likely doable in APAC and Europe where take rates are very low (<2%), but if we are still seeing 25% take rates in US, there is no way for a subscription model to catch up in the near term (we would need to see a 30x increase in uptake… which is mathematically impossible if we start at 25%).

The silver lining is that we may still see high up front take rates in US (so no material short term negative impact), which may reflect that the subscription model may only be a net improvement to overall margins. Time will tell.

My two cents, subscription model will need to play out in non-US markets for it to be net beneficial. I do think we’ll see up front take rates drop in US and see headwinds on short term margins until the subscription model is at scale. I have no doubt that the Master of Coin has fleshed out a number of models and sensitivity analysis.

 

[elasalle]

I was expecting MP to increase a bit before Friday... maybe tomorrow... As it stands, the MM's lose either side of $600, but I betcha they'd prefer to close below

but we are in Buy the Rumor FOMO phase for the Jun 3rd event ...

 

[elasalle]

It takes about 30 months for a $199 subscription to catch up the the revenue recognized on a $10k up front purchase.

So for there to be minimal impact to short term margins, cash, and revenues, take rate would need to increase dramatically. Likely doable in APAC and Europe where take rates are very low (<2%), but if we are still seeing 25% take rates in US, there is no way for a subscription model to catch up in the near term (we would need to see a 30x increase in uptake… which is mathematically impossible if we start at 25%).

The silver lining is that we may still see high up front take rates in US (so no material short term negative impact), which may reflect that the subscription model may only be a net improvement to overall margins. Time will tell.

My two cents, subscription model will need to play out in non-US markets for it to be net beneficial. I do think we’ll see up front take rates drop in US and see headwinds on short term margins until the subscription model is at scale. I have no doubt that the Master of Coin has fleshed out a number of models and sensitivity analysis.

All will depend on how good new FSD is
(Captain obvious fact- self deprecating humor )

 

[The Accountant]

 

[stealthyc]

And 95% maintains being mathematically Illiterate is funny...

The 50% below average thing has bothered me for so long, and I almost never see anyone point out how wrong it is, so.... thanks!

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

It takes about 30 months for a $199 subscription to catch up the the revenue recognized on a $10k up front purchase.

So for there to be minimal impact to short term margins, cash, and revenues, take rate would need to increase dramatically. Likely doable in APAC and Europe where take rates are very low (<2%), but if we are still seeing 25% take rates in US, there is no way for a subscription model to catch up in the near term (we would need to see a 30x increase in uptake… which is mathematically impossible if we start at 25%).

The silver lining is that we may still see high up front take rates in US (so no material short term negative impact), which may reflect that the subscription model may only be a net improvement to overall margins. Time will tell.

My two cents, subscription model will need to play out in non-US markets for it to be net beneficial. I do think we’ll see up front take rates drop in US and see headwinds on short term margins until the subscription model is at scale. I have no doubt that the Master of Coin has fleshed out a number of models and sensitivity analysis.

Don't we think subscriptions, with beta 9 in the wild or out of beta, would mean they can raise the recognition?

If they can raise the recognized value of already sold FSD from the last five years from 60% that should make up for most/all short term shortfall? Either all in one quarter for a gigantic profit and then temporary lower numbers for a couple of years or just raise it with something like 5% per quarter. That would take two years to get to 100% recognized at which time subscriptions should be almost caught up.

They probably can't go to 100% the moment they start subscriptions. But it should be worth something so maybe to 70 or 80%?

 

[Darkfox021]

It takes about 30 months for a $199 subscription to catch up the the revenue recognized on a $10k up front purchase.

So for there to be minimal impact to short term margins, cash, and revenues, take rate would need to increase dramatically. Likely doable in APAC and Europe where take rates are very low (<2%), but if we are still seeing 25% take rates in US, there is no way for a subscription model to catch up in the near term (we would need to see a 30x increase in uptake… which is mathematically impossible if we start at 25%).

The silver lining is that we may still see high up front take rates in US (so no material short term negative impact), which may reflect that the subscription model may only be a net improvement to overall margins. Time will tell.

My two cents, subscription model will need to play out in non-US markets for it to be net beneficial. I do think we’ll see up front take rates drop in US and see headwinds on short term margins until the subscription model is at scale. I have no doubt that the Master of Coin has fleshed out a number of models and sensitivity analysis.

Based on new car sales, yes. However, the subscription will also be available to 75% of cars that have already been sold.

 

[naked_coconut]

Greetings Earthlings, here goes my first post... please let me know if I am missing any key battery suppliers... happy Friday and happy trading!

Tesla supply chain - Batteries
Fremont: Panasonic (NMC)
Shanghai: LG Chem, CATL, EVE (LFP for standard range models, EVE may be added based on Reuters link)

Exclusive-Tesla in talks with China's EVE for low-cost battery supply deal - sources

Tesla Inc is in talks with Chinese battery maker EVE Energy Co to add the firm to its Shanghai factory supply chain, four people familiar with the matter said, as it seeks to boost procurement of lower cost batteries. EVE makes lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which are cheaper to...

ca.finance.yahoo.com

 

[Unpilot]

Wonder if we will see a big dump of shares in ...3..2..1

 

[StealthP3D]

Utterly bizarre to me why someone would knowingly adapt their car in such a way to increase emissions, thus poisoning the air they're actually breathing

As is often pointed-out, 50% of the population are below average intelligence....

I've spoken about how inefficiencies in EV's compound (more batteries weigh more and require yet more batteries which then requires bigger brake discs, stronger, heavier chassis, etc. which then requires a little bigger battery, etc.). It's like Sisyphus rolling the boulder uphill.

Likewise, purposefully increasing the emissions of one's own car. Woe to those stupid enough to adapt their car to increase emissions because this lack of intelligence is a compounding problem as more emissions reduces your intelligence even further (as if that were even possible). The only unfortunate part is the collateral damage to others.

If we continue on this carbon-intensive path, especially the part where we ensure the concentration of pollution has a strong positive correlation to the number of people per square mile, I'm afraid our future looks less like Star Trek and more as it is portrayed in the movie "Idiocracy" (a must see low-brow movie). It's questionable whether we could devise a better way to ensure the voluntary destruction of our species even if we carefully planned it out. It's the height of idiocy to concentrate the toxic gasses where the most people are breathing. Solving this deadly problem is the biggest immediate benefit of EV's.

 

[brantse]

Wonder if we will see a big dump of shares in ...3..2..1

I believe this is from the opening cross "auction". Not necessarily manipulation.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

CNBC hilarious this morning. Cramer blowing in the wind yet again!

Jim Farley is going after Musk and he's gonna win! Lol.... nevermind F has about 6 factors, completely unaddressed, that each individually would keep them from anything but utter failure.

Splendid "analysis".

 

[Unpilot]

I believe this is from the opening cross "auction". Not necessarily manipulation.

And it didn't happen this morning...but did the last two morning's

 

[Todd Burch]

Q2 Deliveries Continue on Extraordinary Pace

I believe the loading of ships for Q2 is now complete and we can see that loading times in Q2 exceeded Q1 by 21%.
If Tesla can continue this strong execution for the remainder of the Qtr in US, Canada and China, bulls will be very happy with the results.
See some additional comments below the table below.

View attachment 666406

Some additional points:

• I've included ships to Australia from Shanghai (as reported by our member Mr Miserable) which are not included in Franco's spreadsheet.
• Local deliveries in the US/Canada appear to be on hold as Delivery Centers wait for a firmware update. Deliveires are estimated to start in June. I believe that Tesla has planned for this so despite the high number of deliveries needed in June, I believe Tesla will execute well.
• As you can see in the chart, loading times to Europe are flat as Tesla prioritized AP (likely SKorea). Brace yourself for the FUD that demand is gone in EU as country xxx is down x%.
• The Q2 11% increase from Fremont is impressive considering space constraints with this facility......Tesla continues to find a way to increase capacity.

Thanks for all this info, @The Accountant. Is loading time usually a consistently good metric for indirectly measuring deliveries?

 

[The Accountant]

As you can see in the chart, loading times to Europe are flat as Tesla prioritized AP (likely SKorea). Brace yourself for the FUD that demand is gone in EU as country xxx is down x%.

As a folllow-up to my comment above, it has started already.
FUD waits for no one - of course no mention on how Tesla sales in Asia Pacific are to da moon!

 

[The Accountant]

Thanks for all this info, @The Accountant. Is loading time usually a consistently good metric for indirectly measuring deliveries?

In the past, loading times have been reliable. The one thing to keep an eye on is whether the ships arrive at their destinations with enough time to complete the deliveries by quarter end. This quarter, the ships seemed to have left with plenty of time to complete the deliveries. I usually monitor the ship arrival times to assess whether I can expect any laggards remaining in inventory.