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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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True. But something feels different. Different is good.

funny-groundhog-day-memes-1549037223908-1549037225945.png


Cheers!
Care to share more? Something that helps with better understanding what you mean there? :)
 
Ford Vice President of New Product Development: Isn't there anything you can do to make the Lightning specs more competitive with Tesla?
Lead Engineer: I'm sorry sir, not within the parameters we were instructed to work within.
Ford Vice President of New Product Development: I'm just worried the media reaction to the unveiling will be underwhelming.
Lead Engineer: Our hands are tied sir, we are already stretching the budgeted cost to the absolute limit.
Ford Vice President of New Product Development: Well, how much could it cost to add a bunch more electrical outlets to wow them with?
Lead Engineer: No sir, electrical outlets are dirt cheap but the research provided by the Department of Customer Usage Patterns determined that 2 120V outlets were more than sufficient to cover 99.96% of all use cases.
Ford Vice President of New Product Development: Well, screw them, I didn't even know we had a Department of Customer Usage Patterns, how much could it cost to bring the total to 10 electrical outlets?
Lead Engineer: I'll request a study on that from the Cost Accounting department and get back to you by next Friday, if it pleases you sir.
Ford Vice President of New Product Development: We don't have time for that you idiot, I'm asking you for a down and dirty cost estimate!
Lead Engineer: Apologies sir, I think it would be less than $35 or so. Of course that assumes we can find suitable locations for all of them without reducing other functionality or creating safety hazards.
Ford Vice President of New Product Development: Well how hard can it be? Don't answer that, that was a rhetorical question. Damn, I had no idea electrical outlets were so cheap. I'll instruct the Vice President of New Product Marketing in the Truck Division to let his folks know I want 10 outlets announced at the reveal, no, scratch that, we're taking this thing to eleven. Ten is for pussies. I want everyone to know the F-150 Lightning doesn't stop at 10 electrical outlets, it goes to eleven! That might be from Spinal Tap but no one will be able to say I don't earn every dollar they pay me!
Lead Engineer: Yes sir, I've not had the pleasure of working for anyone as brilliant as you sir.
Ford Vice President of New Product Development: And that realization is why you are the Lead Engineer! Now get to work finding places to put those outlets, not ten, I want eleven.
Lead Engineer: Yes sir, you can count on me sir!

And that is the true story of how the F-150 Lightning came to have, not 10, but 11 electrical outlets. ;)
Thought you were joking about 11! outlets. So I checked, yep, it's 11. You can't make this stuff up
 
Belgium setup sensors to measure vehicle emissions in the real-world, you can guess the rest...

Anecdotally, a lot of taxi/private hire cars remove filters in UK, especially London where pollution is probably worst. The annual emissions test is fudged in a couple of ways, fraudulent test centres, putting filters back before testing, maybe more.

I've long thought these kind of sensors should be in urban environments. Perhaps number plate recognition plus multi-spectrum cameras or some other way to identify probable individual cars (same car pops up in multiple reports, concentrate sensors on first vehicle stopped at lights). I'd also like to see air pollution zones restricting ICE speed, lane restriction or acceleration - probably the quickest way to increase EV adoption, hit the ego/perceived performance of new ICE cars.

"AdBlue fraud, which results in a failure of the substance to make the catalytic converter work, by tightening the monitoring of manufacturers and by tackling soot filter fraud, which could reduce harmful emissions by 40, 70, and even 80% respectively."

Tesla angle... swap dodgy cars with high pollution for EVs (more Tesla demand), becomes easier to mandate/charge ££ for ICE in EV-only zones.
 
Anecdotally, a lot of taxi/private hire cars remove filters in UK, especially London where pollution is probably worst. The annual emissions test is fudged in a couple of ways, fraudulent test centres, putting filters back before testing, maybe more.

I've long thought these kind of sensors should be in urban environments. Perhaps number plate recognition plus multi-spectrum cameras or some other way to identify probable individual cars (same car pops up in multiple reports, concentrate sensors on first vehicle stopped at lights). I'd also like to see air pollution zones restricting ICE speed, lane restriction or acceleration - probably the quickest way to increase EV adoption, hit the ego/perceived performance of new ICE cars.

"AdBlue fraud, which results in a failure of the substance to make the catalytic converter work, by tightening the monitoring of manufacturers and by tackling soot filter fraud, which could reduce harmful emissions by 40, 70, and even 80% respectively."

Tesla angle... swap dodgy cars with high pollution for EVs (more Tesla demand), becomes easier to mandate/charge ££ for ICE in EV-only zones.
Utterly bizarre to me why someone would knowingly adapt their car in such a way to increase emissions, thus poisoning the air they're actually breathing

As is often pointed-out, 50% of the population are below average intelligence....
 
Utterly bizarre to me why someone would knowingly adapt their car in such a way to increase emissions, thus poisoning the air they're actually breathing

As is often pointed-out, 50% of the population are below average intelligence....
DPF replacement is expensive and they can fail if the only use is in urban driving.

Easy to imagine someone who is barely making ends meet going for the cheap, dirty option, sadly.
 
Utterly bizarre to me why someone would knowingly adapt their car in such a way to increase emissions, thus poisoning the air they're actually breathing

As is often pointed-out, 50% of the population are below average intelligence....
1800 drivers caught in 3 years (2014-17) despite not looking very hard.


1622026477775.png
 
DPF replacement is expensive and they can fail if the only use is in urban driving.

Easy to imagine someone who is barely making ends meet going for the cheap, dirty option, sadly.
I know at least one mostly-urban driver who tried to do the right thing & get an 'environmental' low-emission small diesel & ended up replacing DPF at least once, maybe more, certainly they BECAME aware they'd made a mistake for their driving usage.

If DPFs/particulate & other emissions are enforced on roads, you're going to see a huge switch from used diesels. many SUVs used just for local shopping and kid transport. I would hope this would lead to switches to EVs - Tesla demand up.
 
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Q2 Deliveries Continue on Extraordinary Pace

I believe the loading of ships for Q2 is now complete and we can see that loading times in Q2 exceeded Q1 by 21%.
If Tesla can continue this strong execution for the remainder of the Qtr in US, Canada and China, bulls will be very happy with the results.
See some additional comments below the table below.

1622027822383.png


Some additional points:
  • I've included ships to Australia from Shanghai (as reported by our member Mr Miserable) which are not included in Franco's spreadsheet.
  • Local deliveries in the US/Canada appear to be on hold as Delivery Centers wait for a firmware update. Deliveires are estimated to start in June. I believe that Tesla has planned for this so despite the high number of deliveries needed in June, I believe Tesla will execute well.
  • As you can see in the chart, loading times to Europe are flat as Tesla prioritized AP (likely SKorea). Brace yourself for the FUD that demand is gone in EU as country xxx is down x%.
  • The Q2 11% increase from Fremont is impressive considering space constraints with this facility......Tesla continues to find a way to increase capacity.
 
Yeah, judging by today's Options trading volume, there is a hard floor forming at the 600 SP now with about 43K contracts trading today.

We'll need to wait until tomorrow morning to find out what net effect that volume has. Before trading began today, there were just 5,784 Put contracts open at the 600 Strike price (and 7,958 Call contracts).

If the number of Put contracts at the 600 Strike increases substantially, then it becomes increasingly expensive for MMs to allow the SP to go below that level (thus forming a 'hard floor' for the SP).

View attachment 666050
Cheers!

So the daily Max Pain calculation is now out, and as suspected the number of Puts (and the no. of Calls) at the 600 Strike has increased substantially since yesterday: (7 a.m. data)

Options.MaxPain.2021-05-26.07-00.png

1 day change in open contracts at the 600 Strike:
  • Puts increased from 5,784 to 7,436 (+28.6%)
  • Calls increased from 7,958 to 8,720 (+9.8%)
Options.MaxPain.2021-05-26.07-00.png


I'm not an Options gambler, but this week's expiries look like a natural setup for a straddle*.

*Not Advice. ;)

Cheers!
 
Q2 Deliveries Continue on Extraordinary Pace

I believe the loading of ships for Q2 is now complete and we can see that loading times in Q2 exceeded Q1 by 21%.
If Tesla can continue this strong execution for the remainder of the Qtr in US, Canada and China, bulls will be very happy with the results.
See some additional comments below the table below.

View attachment 666406

Some additional points:
  • I've included ships to Australia from Shanghai (as reported by our member Mr Miserable) which are not included in Franco's spreadsheet.
  • Local deliveries in the US/Canada appear to be on hold as Delivery Centers wait for a firmware update. Deliveires are estimated to start in June. I believe that Tesla has planned for this so despite the high number of deliveries needed in June, I believe Tesla will execute well.
  • As you can see in the chart, loading times to Europe are flat as Tesla prioritized AP (likely SKorea). Brace yourself for the FUD that demand is gone in EU as country xxx is down x%.
  • The Q2 11% increase from Fremont is impressive considering space constraints with this facility......Tesla continues to find a way to increase capacity.
Do you know if Shanghai ships are still prioritizing out of the country vs within the country right now?
 
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Per the terminology of FSD, will this event, whenever happens, result in fully realizing the FSD so far set aside for all the vehicles sold with FSD subscription?
I am assuming that's the case, just confirming.

Also, what is the best timing for launching subscription? Zach said in an earnings call that subscription will result in financials potentially initially taking a hit as more go for subscription rather than full payment. If that's the case, is end of quarter, or early in the quarter best times to open up the subscription?

@The Accountant
I don't see much difference in launching FSD subscriptions early or late in the Qtr. However, to minimize the financial impact, I do see a benefit of launching FSD subscriptions only when FSD has been fully achieved. Here's why:

Tesla recognizes about 60% as revenue immediately upon FSD purchase. So when a customer purchases FSD for $10k, $6k is recognized as Revenue and $4k is deferred. If that customer now buys the subscription at $200/month, Tesla would only get $200-$600 in that Quarter vs $6,000 vs the buy option.

Today, its 100% Buy and 0% Subscribe. In the future, if this changes to 25% Buy and 75% subscribe, there's a hit to revenue and cash flow.
If they launch the subscription service when FSD is feature complete, then they can recognize $10k for the 25% purchasing rather than $6k, offsetting some of the impact of subscriptions.

In the long run, subscriptions are better as the take rate will increase but there is a short term impact to revenues and cash flow.