Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

Considering the number of Teslas I see on Texas roads, the Dealers Association's influence on the statutes does not seem to be much of a deterrent to either sales or delivery.

There is no pressing reason that the legislation of reform needs immediate attention. Sure, it is bound to happen eventually, but, it isn't a deal-breaker in the mean time. Buying a CT in Texas will be no different than buying an M3 or any other model.

Um, yeah, if the hand-wringing over this could be postponed until the next legislative session, that would be great.​

 

[jerry33]

Considering the number of Teslas I see on Texas roads, the Dealers Association's influence on the statutes does not seem to be much of a deterrent to either sales or delivery.

There is no pressing reason that the legislation of reform needs immediate attention. Sure, it is bound to happen eventually, but, it isn't a deal-breaker in the mean time. Buying a CT in Texas will be no different than buying an M3 or any other model.

Um, yeah, if the hand-wringing over this could be postponed until the next legislative session, that would be great.

Agreed, it doesn't affect the consumer much, except that many think they have to drive out of state to purchase one so they never take it further than that. But it's annoying for Tesla because they can't discuss price, financing, or what the various options mean while the person is ordering. (The pricing part is especially dumb because anyone can look at the sticker on the cars in the gallery.) There are a couple of other annoyances.

 

[Joe F]

Shocker. People losing their sucrose, thinking they know better, fornicating with impatience, and just basically reminding me why we’re in this predicament in the first place. Shame on every single one of you feeding the corn syrup ladened bonbon. May your options melt like a butterscotch tuile under hot water.

I think my eye teeth just formed cavities reading this.

 

[Knightshade]

I’m not fluent in the subtleties Texas legislative procedures; but I’m left wondering if the Tesla legislation can be revisited in a special session.

It CAN.

But in Texas each special session called can only address a single issue- so they will likely call one to re-pass the anti-voting-rights act.

But the governor, who has been pro-dealership in the past, would need to call one specifically for the Tesla/dealership issue, that's the part most consider unlikely.

There is no pressing reason that the legislation of reform needs immediate attention. Sure, it is bound to happen eventually, but, it isn't a deal-breaker in the mean time. Buying a CT in Texas will be no different than buying an M3 or any other model.

That's simply not true.

Buying an M3 just requires Tesla ship one from CA to TX after the sale.

Buying a CT would require Tesla to ship one OUT of TX, then sell it to someone IN TX, then ship it back.

That's not insurmountable or a deal-breaker, but it's certainly a difference that adds cost, time, and trouble on at least Teslas side to selling a CT in TX compared to selling an M3 there.

(Selling a Model Y they can at least work around by just delivering Fremont Ys to Texas instead of Texas ones, which is a bit goofy, but no worse than selling a Y today.... there's no such workaround available for CTs unless they suddenly decide to add CT production outside Texas)

 

[S3XY]

I have not kept up with the latest (estimated) figures for Fremont Y but in Q1 they seemed to be below 60k. So probably closing on 250k a year but not quite there yet.

Sorry, I didn't mean that is what they are actually producing now. I meant that based on what you stated, for 8 casting machines in Berlin to reach 1 million/yr pace, the 2 casting machines in Fremont would have to achieve a 250k/yr pace, not 500k/yr.

 

[StealthP3D]

Casting machines make 700 per day or 250,000 per year.
With front and rear castings 8 machines is 1 million vechicles per year.
IDRA can make at least 9 machines per year, I bet the chinese parent company can make at least 4.
So Tesla could add up to 12 casting machines or castings for 1.5 million cars per year across all factories.
A key consideration is what is limiting the growth of production capacity?
After Battery Day I no longer think cells will be the limiting factor.
It may be castings, paint, or some other process.
But castings provide an easy to compute upper bound.

No, castings do not provide an easy to compute upper bound.

Just as with batteries, mining, and demand, casting capacity can be increased. That's how production grows. In fact, the casting machines take up much less space than the many robots they replace. And to think that Tesla can constantly grow production but that the leading innovator in the manufacture of casting machines cannot, that it is a company without the ability to scale and grow, is short-sighted in the extreme.

Whenever you have a company growing as rapidly as Tesla they will hit "the ceiling" temporarily in many ways. There are always snags to growing. But all of the limits to growth are transient in nature, there is no upper bound.

The other reason casting machines do not provide an easy to compute "upper bound" is because the rate at which they churn them out is not fixed. Making castings this large is a new technology that requires new knowledge and is subject to the same kind of innovation Tesla applies to all their processes. If Tesla can, on one casting machine, figure out how to make a two minute process happen in 1 minute and 30 seconds, they can apply that knowledge to all their casting machines and make 33.33% more cars per year with the same number of machines.

The "upper bound" is not fixed and nothing about this is easy to compute.

 

[Unpilot]

Shocker. People losing their sucrose, thinking they know better, fornicating with impatience, and just basically reminding me why we’re in this predicament in the first place. Shame on every single one of you feeding the corn syrup ladened bonbon. May your options melt like a butterscotch tuile under hot water.

tuile
/twē/
Learn to pronounce

noun

1. a thin curved cookie, typically made with almonds
   
   

Your welcome.

 

[2daMoon]

Agreed, it doesn't affect the consumer much, except that many think they have to drive out of state to purchase one so they never take it further than that. But it's annoying for Tesla because they can't discuss price, financing, or what the various options mean while the person is ordering. (The pricing part is especially dumb because anyone can look at the sticker on the cars in the gallery.) There are a couple of other annoyances.

Yeah, for now it is just more Teslafud. Folks who get caught up in the "you can't buy one in Texas" narrative will need to get off that rabbit hole of an argument to accomplish their goal of ownership.

Customers will see Teslas on the road and in neighbors driveways and will KNOW they can have one too. Once they find the website to order from it will be easy-peasy to reach the desired level of instant gratification for the purchase aspect. Production delays for delivery will be the real deterrent, rather than the state regulations.

 

[Rarity]

The factory build out and casting machines would all be in place by around 2030, after that there would be a slower rate of expansion, mostly maintenance and gradual replacement of older machines,..

The gigapresses will last forever, more or less. IDRA said something like three-quarters of the presses that it has built in its history are still in use.

This may be or become something of an issue if Tesla wants to grow at a high rate, but IDRA is hesitant to grow capacity. Of course, there is always a threat that Tesla will start making its own.

 

[2daMoon]

The gigapresses will last forever, more or less. IDRA said something like three-quarters of the presses that it has built in its history are still in use.

But, but, they look so ... fragile.
/s

 

[StealthP3D]

Buying an M3 just requires Tesla ship one from CA to TX after the sale.

Buying a CT would require Tesla to ship one OUT of TX, then sell it to someone IN TX, then ship it back.

That's not insurmountable or a deal-breaker, but it's certainly a difference that adds cost, time, and trouble on at least Teslas side to selling a CT in TX compared to selling an M3 there.

False. Buying a Cybertruck in Texas, even if they have to ship it over state lines and then back in (hint, a solution will manifest itself before they resort to this), is still cheaper than producing it in Fremont and shipping it all the way to Texas.

Worst case scenario, Texas residents don't get any Cybertrucks until the rest of the Cybertruck market becomes demand limited. In other words, a long time. Tesla can sell millions of Cybertrucks without selling a single one in Texas. But it won't take that long for Texas to come around. As a state, they might be slow but they're not stupid!

 

[Knightshade]

False. Buying a Cybertruck in Texas, even if they have to ship it over state lines and then back in (hint, a solution will manifest itself before they have to this), is still cheaper than producing it in Fremont and shipping it all the way to Texas.

Uh... what?

You think it's cheaper to double ship a CT, including needing to hold it somewhere outside of the state, and taking up space on a transport twice that could otherwise hold a different vehicle both ways, than to ship a Model 3 ONCE from CA to TX?

<citation needed> if you wanna call that false.

 

[Krugerrand]

tuile
/twē/
Learn to pronounce

noun

1. a thin curved cookie, typically made with almonds
   

Your welcome.

Caramel Lace Tuiles Recipe

These caramel tuiles are a bit non-traditional. They are not a cracker, but toffee candy melted into a flat lace structure. They do not have a crisp texture as a cookie tuile would, but will soften in your mouth to suck on like a caramel candy. They are a suitable garnish for ice cream and...

chefiso.com

No, you’re welcome.

 

[lascavarian]

False. Buying a Cybertruck in Texas, even if they have to ship it over state lines and then back in (hint, a solution will manifest itself before they have to this), is still cheaper than producing it in Fremont and shipping it all the way to Texas.

Worst case scenario, Texas residents don't get any Cybertrucks until the rest of the Cybertruck market becomes demand limited. In other words, a long time. Tesla can sell millions of Cybertrucks without selling a single one in Texas. But it won't take that long for Texas to come around. As a state, they might be slow but they're not stupid!

Have we forgotten about the Boring co? How “deep“ does the state of Texas go? Maybe they just need to be creative.

 

[2daMoon]

False. Buying a Cybertruck in Texas, even if they have to ship it over state lines and then back in (hint, a solution will manifest itself before they have to this), is still cheaper than producing it in Fremont and shipping it all the way to Texas.

Worst case scenario, Texas residents don't get any Cybertrucks until the rest of the Cybertruck market becomes demand limited. In other words, a long time. Tesla can sell millions of Cybertrucks without selling a single one in Texas.

Nothing about any vehicle purchase process has ever been tied to the physical location of a vehicle. Only the addresses of the buyer and seller will play into the legal act for transfer of ownership from one party to another.

If this is true it seems clear the legal sale transaction (i.e.: paperwork) is all that must happen outside the state borders. Where the physical vehicle is located when the paperwork is processed is of no legal consequence.

 

[Knightshade]

If this is true it seems clear the legal sale transaction (i.e.: paperwork) is all that must happen outside the state borders. Where the physical vehicle is located when the paperwork is processed is of no legal consequence.

I'm not sure why you keep repeating something we already know for a fact is wrong based on existing Tesla sales process in Texas.

It is absolutely and directly tied to the physical location of a vehicle.

If it's physically located in Texas it's illegal for Tesla to sell it to a Texan.

That's why you have to complete your purchase today while the car is physically outside the state.


The only thing that's different in the future is Tesla will have cars that start inside the state from the factory. Under current law they must physically leave the state before Tesla can sell them to a Texan as an "out of state" purchase- then they'd ship it back into Texas once the sale is completed as they do today with Freemont cars that also can't be inside the state when sold.

 

[mrmage]

Maybe I missed it, but why is everyone not excited about EM contractually agreeing to deliver FSD autonomy by end of this year? It may be a constrained case, but this is the first step to robotaxies. Or is this old news?

TBC’s comments on the results of its first LVCC Loop test drives suggest that the tunneling company will continue to improve the Loop’s capacity over time. The Boring Company still has to develop some key factors in the LVCC Loop, including the introduction of autonomous operations. TBC signed an agreement with the LVCVA board to implement autonomous operations to the LVCC Loop “no later than December 31 2021. “

The Boring Company LVCC Loop capacity exceeds 4400 passengers per hour [Video]

The Boring Company’s (TBC) test drives for its Las Vegas Convention Center Loop (LVCC) exceeded 4,400 passengers per hour, according to results revealed on May 29. Steve Hill, the Chief Executive Officer and President of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA), announced the...

www.teslarati.com

 

[S3XY]

False. Buying a Cybertruck in Texas, even if they have to ship it over state lines and then back in (hint, a solution will manifest itself before they resort to this), is still cheaper than producing it in Fremont and shipping it all the way to Texas.

Worst case scenario, Texas residents don't get any Cybertrucks until the rest of the Cybertruck market becomes demand limited. In other words, a long time. Tesla can sell millions of Cybertrucks without selling a single one in Texas. But it won't take that long for Texas to come around. As a state, they might be slow but they're not stupid!

Shipping CT's to Texans will cost more than it should but it will still be cheaper than selling one to most other states (excepting the few surrounding Texas). So I doubt Tesla will limit or delay CT deliveries in Texas. Plus they like to keep initial deliveries as local as possible in case any build issues are discovered.

 

[S3XY]

Maybe I missed it, but why is everyone not excited about EM contractually agreeing to deliver FSD autonomy by end of this year? It may be a constrained case, but this is the first step to robotaxies. Or is this old news?

TBC’s comments on the results of its first LVCC Loop test drives suggest that the tunneling company will continue to improve the Loop’s capacity over time. The Boring Company still has to develop some key factors in the LVCC Loop, including the introduction of autonomous operations. TBC signed an agreement with the LVCVA board to implement autonomous operations to the LVCC Loop “no later than December 31 2021. “

The Boring Company LVCC Loop capacity exceeds 4400 passengers per hour [Video]

The Boring Company’s (TBC) test drives for its Las Vegas Convention Center Loop (LVCC) exceeded 4,400 passengers per hour, according to results revealed on May 29. Steve Hill, the Chief Executive Officer and President of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA), announced the...

www.teslarati.com

FSD in a controlled tunnel is not what we all think of when we speak of Robotaxis/Tesla Network.

 

[ZsoZso]

Maybe I missed it, but why is everyone not excited about EM contractually agreeing to deliver FSD autonomy by end of this year? It may be a constrained case, but this is the first step to robotaxies. Or is this old news?

TBC’s comments on the results of its first LVCC Loop test drives suggest that the tunneling company will continue to improve the Loop’s capacity over time. The Boring Company still has to develop some key factors in the LVCC Loop, including the introduction of autonomous operations. TBC signed an agreement with the LVCVA board to implement autonomous operations to the LVCC Loop “no later than December 31 2021. “

The Boring Company LVCC Loop capacity exceeds 4400 passengers per hour [Video]

The Boring Company’s (TBC) test drives for its Las Vegas Convention Center Loop (LVCC) exceeded 4,400 passengers per hour, according to results revealed on May 29. Steve Hill, the Chief Executive Officer and President of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA), announced the...

www.teslarati.com

operating in a closed tunnel (no intersections, no oncoming traffic, single lane, no pedestrians) is very different from operating on the surface streets. I am pretty sure, the current Autopilot is already perfectly capable of handling the tunnel driving.