Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Zaxxon]

When he said that of the two available sizes, one will go away?

Uhh...

Elon didn't say that a new battery size won't be introduced at the time the 75 kWh version is phased out...

That 100 kWh will be the only version left is one of the possibilities, but not the only possibility: I think it's pretty likely that Tesla is going to introduce at least one new S/X battery pack.

Exactly. I give it a 42.0% chance that we're left with just the 100kWh version for a short while, but a 99% chance that a new size (or more specifically, a non-size-based pack) is introduced shortly after the 75 kWh pack disappears. Musk also said yesterday that they're moving away from pack size marketing for S/X and toward range-based names like the Model 3 uses. In other words, he said yesterday that the 100 kWh pack [name] is also not long for this world.

 

[jhm]

Please. Let's not act like this didn't happen:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
....
.... and on and on.... a conversation of which you were an active participant. What do you expect to accomplish by re-raising your assertion that Tesla is going to burn a bunch of capital building entire new cell lines for ~100k/yr of vehicle production and redoing or replacing its existing pack lines after reengineering, requalifying, retesting, and recertifying (in all markets) two separate vehicles, in order to... keep selling the vehicles they're already selling, which sell just fine.... and then maybe even more capital expanding said production, when said production expansion is not Tesla's goal (Model 3 expansion is)? Capital that they desperately need not just for Model 3 expansion, but Model Y, Pickup, Semi, Roadster, GF3, GF2, upcoming GF4, the Supercharger network (whose growth has slowed to a crawl), debt repayment, and oh yes, the expansion of service that we've literally spent the past several days talking about how it's insufficient? And then either spend even more capital converting some (but not all!) of their powerpacks to 18650, or letting some competitor have Tesla's 18650 supply (using Panasonic's best-in-the-industry chemistry)?

Why are you trying to resurrect this conversation? It's a dead horse. No good will come of it. Everything has been said before. You know my view: S & X are cash cows for Tesla to milk (to gain the capital they need for everything else), not sink money in that will take years to pay off, and they'll only make meaningful capital changes when they think they can no longer sell their full output without them, and no sooner. I know your viewpoint. The conversation is over.

Okay, I'm going to have to block you. I really don't appreciate you calling me a spammer. I post in good faith. If you think this conversation is over, then simply stop posting on it. You've made your points, so let it go and move on. Others may continue to see things differently, so let them make their points. There is absolutely no need to disparage others simply because they refuse to come around to your viewpoint. Good day.

 

[Analyst007]

Did it cover the cost of the bag?

Not yet fully, she is an expensive girl. That gucci bag is more than 3'000$. And I want 1'000$ profit for my savings account. So another 2'000 to go.

 

[lklundin]

Where can I buy a flying water tower? - Google Search

I think the time has come to inform the general TMC readership that you have been getting clever with Google's Knowledge Graph results.

 

[mrdoubleb]

So on the S/X battery question.

I know Norway is just 1 country, even if Tesla`s biggest European market, but the data is easily available there so let`s use it.

The 75 and 100 packs were both introduced 1 or 2 months apart in 2016. The picture is a bit muddy due to the phase out of the 60 and 90 and how some 70 could be upgraded to 75 I think, but regardless. It is still clear to see, that we have about 7200 units of 75 kWh vs. 1100 of the 100 kWh Model S over there (all variants added up). with Model x, I believe the bigger and heavier car`s range on the 75s may have been too low for comfort for many, so the 100 pack is a relatively bigger percentage of the total, but still, the small pack wins 5700 to 3100.

Long story short, while getting rid of the smaller pack on the S could give a boost to the to of the line 3, I doubt it would take over the entire low end Model s market. And on the X, with the Model Y being ~18 months out at least, it would decimate sales if the entry model started at $100k.

So I see 2 options:

• They make the 100 pack the new baseline and lower the price. Not quite to the 75 level, but say, $5k above that if margins permit. And they also introduce a ~120 pack. Whoever can`t stomach the 5k increase can go for a top end Model 3.
• We will get a 85-90 kWh new base model at 75k price point and the 100 will be upgraded to 110-120 and continue to start just under $100k.

Elon used to say the 100 is the upper limit on the current cells as they can`t fit more in the pack. Now they may redesign the pack for higher power charging (Supercharger v3) with better cooling anyway and also eke out a bit more juice due to chemistry improvements, say we could get a 100 kWh. But if we get anything like a 120 pack, I`d be very surprised to see that on 18650.

 

[UncaNed]

Basically says that it's pretty easy, but you have to make a point of actually going to the Superchargers.

NONSENSE! I've increased my range with simple, convenient spiritual supercharger visits on many a long distance journey- this is clearly nothing more than FUD. Actual supercharger visits are a waste of time and effort.

 

[KarenRei]

I think the time has come to inform the general TMC readership that you have been getting clever with Google's Knowledge Graph results.

How should KarenRei respond to Iklundin? - Google Search

 

[loco]

Not yet fully, she is an expensive girl. That gucci bag is more than 3'000$. And I want 1'000$ profit for my savings account. So another 2'000 to go.

I miss TrendTrader007. His (imaginary) trades were in the millions. Could you add a few zeroes next time for our excitement?

 

[ReflexFunds]

I feel sure Tesla retiring the 75D S & X is the first stage of a larger plan. Audi E-tron, Jaguar I-Pace, Porsche Taycan and Mercedes EQC have all played their (rather weak) hands, it’s time for Tesla to retaliate.

I’m less sure whether Tesla’s revamp involves a move to GF1 2170 batteries and motors, or just larger battery pack still with 18650s from Japan.

One scenario is keeping the current 100D batteries, repricing them lower and introducing a new 120D top of the range pack. Both likely with faster charge rates ready for supercharger V3.

The new S & X line-up could look like:

Model S:
75D - 259mi range. Discontinued. Old price $76k.
100D - 335mi range. New price $83k. Old Price $94k.
120D - 390mi range. Price $97k.
P120D - 370mi range. Price $130k.

Model X:
75D - 237mi range. Discontinued. Old price $82k.
100D - 295mi range. New price $88k. Old price $97k.
120D - 330mi range. Price $102k.
P120D - 325mi range. Price $135k.

The average profit per car of this new lineup should be similar to Q4, and higher than the current levels since the new year price cuts.

This new lineup would however require a c.23% increase in cell capacity (from 8.7Gwh to 10.8Gwh) for 100k annual volume.

 

[Fact Checking]

Elon used to say the 100 is the upper limit on the current cells as they can`t fit more in the pack.

I believe the 2170 cells have ~20% better energy density, so they could kill two birds with a single stone:

• 2170 migration improves S/X margins
• this allows the introduction of:
  
  • a new ~90-95 kWh "Long Range" Model S/X rated above 300 miles EPA. Price would be $5k-$10k above the current 75D price level, like you speculated.
  • a new 120-125 kWh "Very Long Range" Model S/X rated above 400 miles (!).
  • a new 120-125 kWh "Performance" Model S/X with even more jaw-dropping performance.

Now what makes me uneasy about the above prediction is the fact that if that's the case then the 100D will be phased out as well. Maybe Elon wanted to warn about the upcoming price increase for the 'Long Range' version.

Or maybe I'm wrong.

 

[KarenRei]

Okay, I'm going to have to block you. I really don't appreciate you calling me a spammer. I post in good faith. If you think this conversation is over, then simply stop posting on it. You've made your points, so let it go and move on. Others may continue to see things differently, so let them make their points. There is absolutely no need to disparage others simply because they refuse to come around to your viewpoint. Good day.

There's a general rule with these common threads is that whenever a topic becomes too spammy and controversial, it either gets terminated or moved into its own thread. Resurrecting long, old arguments for which this already happened is not in accordance with how this thread is supposed to work. It's not okay.

But your call if you want to block me over me not appreciating you flogging a dead horse.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Elon seems to have arrived in The Netherlands this morning, after an overnight flight from China.

Schiphol Flights for 09-01-2019 (the yellow entry)
Credits to PaulusdB

Edit: yesterday evening

 

[KarenRei]

There are reports that Elon arrived in The Netherlands this morning, after an overnight flight from China.

Yes, arrived yesterday evening. Hasn't left yet.

 

[Fact Checking]

New I feel sure Tesla retiring the 75D S & X is the first stage of a larger plan. Audi E-tron, Jaguar I-Pace, Porsche Taycan and Mercedes EQC have all played their (rather weak) hands, it’s time for Tesla to retaliate.

Yes, fully agreed! My first thought when I read Elon's tweet was "Checkmate!".

I’m less sure whether Tesla’s revamp involves a move to GF1 2170 batteries and motors, or just larger battery pack still with 18650s from Japan.

Same thinking here: my uncertainty mainly comes from the "What to do with the 18,650 output??" question. Maybe Tesla and Panasonic have something smart planned out.

Intuitively I'd say that because the 18,650 contract is running out pretty soon, Tesla would be fool to introduce a new 18,650 battery pack just to phase it out later in the year or early next year?

Also, now that the tax credit is phasing out and Q1 S/X demand is seasonally soft anyway, why not just use the opportunity and really beef up the S/X battery pack?

So I'm torn. The minimal scenario is that in 4 days Tesla will phase out the 75D variants and that's it.

But there's a lot of advantages to the 2170 introduction, so I think (hope) that Tesla is going there.

 

[Buckminster]

I feel sure Tesla retiring the 75D S & X is the first stage of a larger plan. Audi E-tron, Jaguar I-Pace, Porsche Taycan and Mercedes EQC have all played their (rather weak) hands, it’s time for Tesla to retaliate.

Great point. No longer will magazines compare the iPace with the 75D X. They will be forced to compare to the P3D or 100D X.

 

[Fact Checking]

100D - 295mi range. New price $88k. Old price $97k.

BTW., here I think they'll use the golden opportunity to go beyond the 400 miles EPA range. Since they are going to market it as 'Long Range' and 'Very Long Range', these psychological limits matter a lot.

My favorite range would be 405 miles, which is just above 650 km. (But I guess this also depends on the agency doing the range measurement, and they differ between the U.S. and Europe.)

Requires 2170 cells though - I don't think 120-ish kWh of 18650 will fit without a major re-design of the chassis.

 

[AlexS]

I miss TrendTrader007. His (imaginary) trades were in the millions. Could you add a few zeroes next time for our excitement?

If his trades were real, he got washed out by the 420 tweet mess. This might explain his not here anymore.

 

[UncaNed]

I am curious on what Elon is feeling right now after encountering the contrast between the Chinese gov response to him vs USA gov response. One is giving him almost free reign and the other is actively hindering him.

Maybe TSLA-China should IPO in CHina.

The value of effectively demonstrating this freedom, support, and capability back in the US should not be underestimated. If it can be used to open the eyes of those in power and in industry it could easily effect billions of dollars worth of changes and improvements here in government both in subsidies and education policies.

I'm a dreamer, but if it only changed the evidence of the technical background we require of our leaders, it would help immeasurably; wouldn't it be great if voters had been discussing candidate's technical backgrounds vs. the religious nonsense that affeced elections all through the pathetic, embarrassing Reagan years and through the present.

 

[AlexS]

Elon seems to have arrived in The Netherlands this morning, after an overnight flight from China.

Schiphol Flights for 09-01-2019 (the yellow entry)
Credits to PaulusdB

Edit: yesterday evening

You live in Netherlands, it should be easier for you to find out what he is doing there.

 

[Causalien]

If his trades were real, he got washed out by the 420 tweet mess. This might explain his not here anymore.

Yep. It was as if Elon was specifically targetting trendtrader007 to wipe out his calls. Perfectly timed and just long enought for tt007 to believe and sell the calls.