Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mrdoubleb]

Maxwell acquisition offer extended by about 2 weeks.

Thoughts?

Maybe they got counter offers? Or want to wait for a judge to reject the lawsuits filed by some Maxwell shareholders?
SEC Filing | Tesla, Inc.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

No, you are not.

If they find a rare frog crawling around on the building site, or some nestling swallows, you are looking at half a year delay, at least. Welcome to Europe

 

[Artful Dodger]

Anybody else think that the new GF3/Shanghai render looks eerily like Lathrop? All those docks/bays lining the sides of the building are the fingerprint of the Sprung structure style of manufacturing pioneered in Fremont with the GA4 line. Seems to me, that's the same style used for the new Tesla facility in Tilburg, NL too.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm not sure why this is difficult for you. It's not controversial.

Lol, guess we'll have to agree to disagree. I see no reason for Tesla not to take the $3K immediately, there is zero risk in producing a 3rd row of seats. My position is the web site isn't authoriative as to what final production will be in 1.5 years.
Cheers!

 

[Antares Nebula]

Gene Munster pointed out on CNBC today that the cash grab thesis of the critics is flawed, because basically any cash gained from Y deposits will be offset by cannibalized 3 sales, and so it's a wash.

 

[KarenRei]

Anybody else think that the new GF3/Shanghai render looks eerily like Lathrop? All those docks/bays lining the sides of the building are the fingerprint of the Sprung structure style of manufacturing pioneered in Fremont with the GA4 line. Seems to me, that's the same style used for the new Tesla facility in Tilburg, NL too.

View attachment 386619

It does. This is a view from the northwest corner, no?

One thing to remember in addition: part of what makes GA4 efficient, and why Tesla has decided to make it their model going forward, is that instead of parts getting unloaded to a depot and then conveyed to workstations, they're unloaded directly at each workstation. This suggests to me that GA will be on the west side of the plant.

That doesn't mean that all shipping to the plant is for GA, of course - they also have to feed stamping, body, paint, etc. But I expect GA to occupy some meaningful fraction of the west side. (We of course don't know what the other side looks like).

Let's see, where do they like/need high ceilings.... body, no? So that they can have robots both overhead and underneath, right? So I'd guess that the tall section is body.

Paint usually has a lot of hardware on the ceiling for pollution control. Looks like a possible paint shop on the southeast side, no?

Hmm, I'm not completely picturing the flow if my assumptions are right...

 

[davecolene0606]

Didn't yet watch his presentation (sound asleep), so allow me a clarification question. Will those features include the ability to summon an empty car from miles away over public road? For example, downtown meeting and have the car drive itself to a free parking lot outside the city. And then come back to pick you up. All without a driver?

Summon within 650ft of you and it will come to you of a predetermined location set into the app/car.

Fire Away!

 

[Antares Nebula]

Putting aside I really dislike the design. I have to ask “y”?

The mission is to electrify the worldwide fleet. Why not pick the most popular CUV/SUV style/shape to sell to the masses that already has proven curb appeal?

Eg...Mazda cx9 or cx5...Volvo Xc90/60, BMW X3/5, Mercedes....Honda..Toyota...ford etc. People like em. They sell. Take the body style..,and put an electric motor in it. Yes it will have a bit less range...but also on the flip side more utility ( sloped roof anyone?).

I really do feels the answers will comes in fits of cohesive design language, but underneath it all i do question wether any designer given a blank slate like Franz had, could set aside their ego and follow in someone else’s footsteps, rather than create their own jellybean like mold.

Well, that was the decision to make a few years ago. They went for the economics and cost benefits of using an existing platform. Maybe five years from now, with a better financial position, they will launch independent SUV platforms. The Y will still sell well because it essentially has zero competition, and the EV + tech (software/autopilot) value outstrips any design/aesthetic considerations from a consumer viewpoint.

 

[Donatas]

2019 gigafactory Shanghai render with a fleet of Tesla's semis... Could this be that one more thing?

 

[Buddyroe]

If it takes 3.5 years from the production start date of the Model 3 to the same for the Model Y, which have approximately 70% parts in common, how long will it take to design and bring a truck, which will probably have 5% parts in common, to production?

I'm guessing 2024 to 2025. Anyone else have a guess?

I never wanted Apple to buy Tesla, but oh my, what could Elon do with several billion dollars at his disposal? I'm starting to think Tesla being bought is the only way we're going to see some real progress towards a full lineup of vehicles for Tesla. I don't have an entire lifetime to wait on this - I had already used about half of it up when Tesla got started!

 

[electracity]

Absolutely correct. The shorts ARE the reason the stock will go down. "Falling demand", and the other FUD are the excuses.

Here's some FUD that may affect SP. Jigar Shah said yesterday on the Energy Gand podcast that Tesla had a deal with bondholders for stock instead of cash. That $450M deal was blown up with Musk's "SEC tweet". I'm assuming that this is the reason the VP of Finance quit.

 

[KarenRei]

Here's some FUD that may affect SP. Jigar Shah said yesterday on the Energy Gand podcast that Tesla had a deal with bondholders for stock instead of cash. That $450M deal was blown up with Musk's "SEC tweet". I'm assuming that this is the reason the VP of Finance quit.

Who? And what's his source?

 

[elasalle]

Volkswagen — The automaker and former CEO Martin Winterkorn have been charged and sued by the Securities and Exchange Commission, accused of perpetrating a "massive fraud" in connection with its diesel emissions scandal. The SEC said the automaker issued more than $13 billion in debt in U.S. markets when executives already knew about software that allowed diesel cars to exceed legal emissions limits.

 

[KarenRei]

If it takes 3.5 years from the production start date of the Model 3 to the same for the Model Y, which have approximately 70% parts in common, how long will it take to design and bring a truck, which will probably have 5% parts in common, to production?

The lower the volume, the easier it is to go from prototype to peak production. The extreme endpoint is where you're only making a handful of vehicles, and they're all handbuilt, meaning that the first is just as easy to build as the last.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Gene Munster pointed out on CNBC today that the cash grab thesis of the critics is flawed, because basically any cash gained from Y deposits will be offset by cannibalized 3 sales, and so it's a wash.

Yeah, Gene is wrong. Tesla will sell every single car it can make, and the lines are not getting shorter. Now the 3 has opened up the latent demand at the $35K level, and Telsa backlog of orders continues to grow.

Telsa is supply constrained, not demand constrained. Gene's getting too comfy in the guest chair. I particularly laughed out loud when the reporter cut him off, finished his sentence, and then all he said was "yeah".

Sad to see him fading so badly, but I guess CNBC is were former analysts go out to pasture.

Cheers!

 

[Don TLR]

On a serious note: with Tesla having announced that some 76 percent of the parts are snagged from the Model 3, I think it already was a given that the two vehicles were going to look at least as similar as what we were shown tonight.

That was the key right there, 76%, I was expecting something else and shouldn't be surprised it looks like it does. Please bring out the pick-up soon!

 

[Hock1]

Here's some FUD that may affect SP. Jigar Shah said yesterday on the Energy Gand podcast that Tesla had a deal with bondholders for stock instead of cash. That $450M deal was blown up with Musk's "SEC tweet". I'm assuming that this is the reason the VP of Finance quit.

If any deal was for stock was "blown up", it wouldn't have been because of a tweet. It was simply because the conversion price was never achieved at expiration (redemption). Ergo, all cash.

 

[AMN]

The glass roof on my gas guzzler cost over $20k. Model Y is a steal. LOL

OK, I am gonna go give Tesla an interest-free $2,500 loan now.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Anyone else surprised at how low Model Y prices are?
The Standard Range model appears to have premium interior and a battery pack somewhere between SR+ and MR. I would guess this is likely a SR+ pack with the same number of cells but improved cell chemistry.
But overall the base Model Y looks closest to a MR model 3, which is due to increase in price to c.$41k next week. So the SR Model Y is $2k cheaper than the equivalent Model 3?

Also the cargo capacity looks larger than expected.
At 66 cu ft, this is 340% higher than Model 3, 120% higher than Model S and just 25% lower than Model X.

The specs compare very favourably to ICE competition as mentioned above:

BMW X3: $41,000 to $54,650 STARTING MSRP. Two rows, 62.7 cubic feet, 6.0 to 4.6 0-60 times
Audi Q5: $43,945 to $52,400 starting MSRP, Two rows, 60.4 cubic feet, 5.8 to 5.1 0-60 times
Porsche Macan: $49,900 to $77,200 starting MSRP, Two rows, 52.9 cubic feet, 6.3 to 4.4 0-60 times
Lexus RX: $43,670 to $51,455 starting MSRP, Three rows, 56.3 cubic feet, 8.0 to 7.7 0-6 times

The production timeline is somewhat disappointing, but I think Tesla is highly incentivised to be very conservative.
To reduce the Osborne effect and also to avoid disappointing customers with delays and to reduce risk of relentless media attacks for missing production targets, I think it makes sense for Tesla to give a production date they are very confident they can deliver. So this time I expect "late next year" means they are confident everyone who orders today will get their cars by late 2020. This would require a pilot line by at least mid 2020 (in-line with BI schedule) or even the beginning of 2020 (in-line with Elon's most recent comments on the Q4 call).

Opening orders rather than reservations is a good move
This reduces potential negative comparison to Model 3 reservation count, while also better gauging demand for specific options and boosting cash balance through deposits.

As commented above, Tesla's wording suggests GF4 in Europe is targeting production in early 2021.

 

[schonelucht]

Qualified by "dependent on regulatory approval", right?

Several markets, including Tesla's most important, have known protocols and programs in place to allow self driving cars on the road. Tesla has not yet once submitted an application under such program that I know off. Correct if me I am wrong. So, no, that's not something that Tesla can use to reflect its responsabilities towards its customers.