Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dan Detweiler]

In that case then people should stop bitching about what the stock price is doing and stop whining that it should be higher "because".

Got no problem with that.

Unfortunately (or fortunately), we are in a forum with people from all different financial, political, and geographical backgrounds, all with the common interest of what Tesla stock is doing. Most are bullish. A few are bearish. All have different degrees of personal investment. People tend to get caught up in where their money goes and what it's doing.

Dan

 

[Bobfitz1]

• Rule #1 in European industrial construction projects: it is impossible to overestimate the red tape.
• Rule #2 in European industrial construction projects: if you are within schedule by some miracle then in reality you didn't include the time lost due to a surprise future inspection finding non-compliance and causing several months of slippage and a cost overrun. I.e. see Rule #1.

Are industrial construction project permitting governed mainly by EU wide requirements or ones controlled by each country?

If country, then there ought to be competition between countries the same as we had for GF1. Part of Nevada's winning package was I suspect helping to move permitting along quickly. That said, buying an existing factory would seem the fastest route.

 

[Curt Renz]

On CNBC right now:
Jeff Osborne is bear on Tesla with stock price target 200. As expected, the "$2500" deposit instead of the conventional $1000 is sign of cash crunch"

TipRanks - Osborne: https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/jeff-osborne

 

[Fact Checking]

Any idea of the cost spread between self-generated electricity and Chinese grid rates?

Speculation is that Shanghai is giving Tesla electricity for free for a couple of years, so the cost advantage of just hooking up GF3 to the Chinese grid could be substantial.

 

[voip-ninja]

Got no problem with that.

Unfortunately (or fortunately), we are in a forum with people from all different financial, political, and geographical backgrounds, all with the common interest of what Tesla stock is doing. Most are bullish. A few are bearish. All have different degrees of personal investment. People tend to get caught up in where their money goes and what it's doing.

Dan

I think the demographics of this group is a lot more homogenized than you realize.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

TipRanks - Osborne: https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/jeff-osborne

Damn, my weatherman has a better rating than that.

Dan

 

[JRP3]

I never said it was expected,...

The poster to whom I was replying expressed disappointment that range wasn't offered. That was an unrealistic expectation.

 

[voip-ninja]

@adaptabl stop liking/loving and slobbering on my posts... you are destroying my credibility.

 

[UncaNed]

.

BMW doesn't have much vertical integration, they don't even always do body & assembly in-house. Toyota has by far the most vertical integration out of traditional OEMs (when including its whole web of semi owned suppliers), but even Toyota has less vertical integration than Tesla.
You can't just immediately brings things in-house in any case, it takes years to develop the IP in-house before you even think about planning mass production.

Makes you realize even more how amazing uncle Elon and his team truly are!

 

[Fact Checking]

I am ready to take a guess at what the "one more thing" is. When Elon showed the picture of the Chinese GF last night, didn't he state that this is what it would look like "at the end of this year"? And there are at least 25 or 26 Tesla semis moving freight out front in the picture. Either the China GF will be producing Tesla semis (China could easily be a bigger market for the semi than the US anyways), or they will be available from another source by then. And the original production date for the Tesla Semi was 2019. This would certainly make Elon laugh and giggle like a school kid with a secret all evening. Especially after parking the semi in the audience.

[...]

That Tesla Semi Truck production might start by the end of 2019 is a super interesting observation.

It's a very intriguing possibility, and the picture from the unveil is convincing:

Elon said that this is how the Chinese Gigafactory is going to look like at the end of 2019 then that's 20 Tesla Semis on that picture alone ...

Also note the title of the picture: "2019 Gigafactory Shanghai".

The heavy duty truck market is both huge and very profitable - and none of that is priced into TSLA yet. I always thought that the Semi is more important to Tesla's growth curve than the Model Y, because electrification of the trucking industry will happen much, much faster than the electrification of passenger light vehicles.

 

[Nocturnal]

because electrification of the trucking industry will happen much, much faster than the electrification of passenger light vehicles.

Yes because these are businesses. They care about the bottom line and aren't as prone to FUD as a guy who has a fetish for his diesel pick up.

 

[Nocturnal]

On CNBC right now:
Jeff Osborne is bear on Tesla with stock price target 200. As expected, the "$2500" deposit instead of the conventional $1000 is sign of cash crunch"

That is an idiotic comment. If they had a cash crunch they would LOWER the reservation amount. $2500 to me suggests that they think demand will be more than enough so there is no need to build a huge pile of orders they can't fill.

Use BMW then. They have similar market cap to GM. How many units did BMW ship in 2018? 2+ million?

Their numbers suggest a decline though.

 

[JRP3]

Someone reported seeing a pickup truck flashed on the screen for a brief moment. Was that the secret "one more thing"?

 

[M3Rider]

As commented above, Tesla's wording suggests GF4 in Europe is targeting production in early 2021.

I have suspicions about this item. Given that in China it will take close to a year for production to start and this timeline is supposedly super fast and in Europe things will go much slower with all the permits etc.,
to start production in 2021, which only leaves 1 3/4 years from now, shouldn't they be starting on the factory right about now?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

"Deposits".... Money up-front...

Or, in this case, "Processing costs"...
Everybody that buys early still gets to pay full price, in addition to the $2500 spent last night....

Peter Roselle on Twitter

View attachment 386649

Not full price. Read the rest, past that yellow highlighted portion. If you pay $2500 to preorder, you get a discount on the purchase price of... wait for it.... $2500.

 

[Pras]

That Tesla Semi Truck production might start by the end of 2019 is a super interesting observation.

It's a very intriguing possibility, and the picture from the unveil is convincing:

Elon said that this is how the Chinese Gigafactory is going to look like at the end of 2019 then that's 20 Tesla Semis on that picture alone ...

Also note the title of the picture: "2019 Gigafactory Shanghai".

The heavy duty truck market is both huge and very profitable - and none of that is priced into TSLA yet. I always thought that the Semi is more important to Tesla's growth curve than the Model Y, because electrification of the trucking industry will happen much, much faster than the electrification of passenger light vehicles.

Very hard to believe that this will be all done this year. Most likely a part of this picture will be completed by end of this year. Although the semi can still happen.

 

[Unpilot]

Drive Interstate 40 from Tucumcari, New Mexico east for about ==> 40-50 _miles_ and try to count the 1,000’s of giant wind turbines and realize this is only _one_ wind farm of many. It’s happening all around you.
Road trip!!!!

Posting from paradise and logged on just to reply.
Were I live there are so many wind farms and more going up all the time.

My seatmate commented that were he lives they just approved a new 115 turbine wind farms.

Quoting him " These are much bigger turbines and blades than before"

 

[Fact Checking]

Yes because these are businesses. They care about the bottom line and aren't as prone to FUD as a guy who has a fetish for his diesel pick up.

Yes, but there are lots of other reasons as well why accelerating the production of the Tesla Semi Truck to 2019 makes sense:

• Average fleet size of the largest players is thousands of trucks. Consumers have to be convinced one by one - while truck operators can be converted to pilot the Tesla Semi company by company.
• 70% of the trucking use-cases are exceedingly simple: repetitive trips with distances below 100 miles, between port, trucking yard and rail heads. 70% of the truck miles driven in the U.S. are "short haul" routes.
• Long distance trucking is a special field with different requirements - but Tesla won't need to compete there, dominating short haul initially is more than enough.
• Large diesel engines from the major manufacturers are actually very complex and expensive, and they are expensive to maintain and expensive to keep within pollution limits. The maintenance and fuel cost gap between the Tesla Semi is actually much larger than the cost gap between EVs and gascars in the passenger vehicle space.
• Assembly costs are lower, on a revenue weighted basis. It takes more time and material to assemble a truck, but for that you get $150k-$200k unit costs. I.e. even if it takes twice as labor cost to assemble a Semi as a Model 3, the average ASP is 3x-4x larger, so there's automatically large margin.
• The Tesla Semi uses much more battery cells - so cell manufacturing cost and performance advantages of Tesla creates a bigger cost and efficiency gap to competitors.
  
• Autopilot and FSD advantages are obvious in the trucking space.

 

[brian45011]

Tesla's creditworthiness still "strained," Moody's says (DJ News wire)

Tesla's creditworthiness still \

 

[kbM3]

Use BMW then. They have similar market cap to GM. How many units did BMW ship in 2018? 2+ million?

You didn’t answer:

WHY were you being disingenuous?