Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[brian45011]

I am ready to take a guess at what the "one more thing" is. When Elon showed the picture of the Chinese GF last night, didn't he state that this is what it would look like "at the end of this year"? And there are at least 25 or 26 Tesla semis moving freight out front in the picture. Either the China GF will be producing Tesla semis (China could easily be a bigger market for the semi than the US anyways), or they will be available from another source by then. And the original production date for the Tesla Semi was 2019. This would certainly make Elon laugh and giggle like a school kid with a secret all evening. Especially after parking the semi in the audience. If they were to begin production of any vehicle without an 'announcement' then Shorts and SEC would pile on once again, screaming 'unfair'. Now Elon can simply say "I showed you the damn picture and told you that it would happen by the end of this year".

No solar?

 

[jerry33]

Surprised you completely missed the point. If 375-400 miles of range were in any way practical to achieve at this point in time Tesla would do it. Anyone paying any attention to the state of battery technologies knows that is not currently possible, so it's a completely unrealistic expectation.

I never said it was expected, although I understand that the Maxwell technology will give that capability, just that it was desirable in certain areas for the foreseeable future.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Isn't 47 a little old to BECOME a sneakerhead?

View attachment 386607

Tesla Sneakers with SpaceX option? That would move the SP.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

The car has an entirely new unit body and will require all new press equipment to do the panels, etc., unless they are outsourcing it. Fabrication investment is still going to cost a ton for this car.

I'm not going to dispute that it should be easier... but we have to consider Tesla's reality. Elon appears to be in the mode of hoarding cash in order to pay for the line expansion needed for Model Y using Tesla capital instead of financing. This, in my opinion, is a risky move, guess we'll see. I say it's risky because any delay to Tesla increasing the # of products they have on offer is risky. CUV is #1 selling car class in America and it is gaining market share in every market I am aware of.

I understand how pissed he is being beholden to financiers in order to get his plans executed but right now Tesla needs to accelerate even more rapidly than they are, think about how fast they could have Y out if they had a massive cash infusion NOW.

Think about where Amazon would be today if 10 years ago Bezos had stopped taking cash infusions.

So now we think Tesla should be using the markets. 6 months ago everyone was saying they shouldn't and it was a sign of their impending doom. Don't you get it? Tesla is damned if they do, damned if they don't. It doesn't matter what they do or say the people that want to see the market move a certain direction are going to make it do just that.

So, what they appear to be doing (and it is very refreshing to see for me) is they are just doing what is in the company's best interest. Let the movers and shakers spin it however they want. Do we know where Model Y is going to be built for sure? No, but I bet Elon and team do. Do we know what margins Model 3 is being built with for sure? No, but I bet Elon and team do. Do we know what the delivery sequencing and priorities are for the next year? No, but I bet Elon and team do. Do we know for sure when Model Y will begin delivery? No, but I bet Elon and team do. Do we know the ramp status of the energy side of the business? No, but I bet Elon and team do.

If any information they share is just going to be spun to be used against them, why should they bother sharing anything above what is required? Keep your head down, your nose to the grindstone, and continue to make decisions that are in the best interest of the company. I believe that's what Tesla is doing at this point.

Dan

 

[mongo]

It's not ~arbitrary~... It's what that sentence actually says... I'm not just making it up...
We can agree on that, right?

But believe whatever you want... You win.. I give... Not worth it..

The agreement states:

When you take delivery of the vehicle we will provide a credit to the final purchase price of your Vehicle equivalent to the amount of the Order Payment you paid.

 

[kbM3]

Absurd? Tesla has a market cap nearly that of GM and they sell less than 4% of what GM does annually in units.

Yes, the technology is amazing but they seem to continue to struggle with execution.

You are annoyed the stock is depressed and yo-yo'ing but you have to look at the yo-yo coming out of the Tesla boardroom with yo-yo of model pricing, feature pricing, store closings, etc.

Why are you making a disingenuous unit comparison to GM, rather than the more appropriate BMW?

 

[TradingInvest]

Just an FYI...

I went online to the configurator and speced out a Model Y exactly like my Model 3. Comes out $1500 CHEAPER than what I paid for my Model 3. The car is a steal. Even with a virtually useless 3rd row of seats (I don't suspect they will sell many in the 7 seat configuration) the car is an amazing deal.

FUD patrol will run hard today. All sorts of lies and misinformation will be sure to fly. Tesla...just stay the course and keep on keepin' on.

Dan

For someone who lives in California, the AWD Model 3 is $47k, buyer is likely to get $3750 tax incentive plus $2500 from state. It comes at $40750. If he orders the AWD Model Y, the price is $51k, probably very little tax incentives by then. In this scenario, The Y costs $10250 more than the 3.

If he lives in a place with no state incentives, Model Y costs $7750 more than Model 3 assume he can get the $3750 rebate on Model 3. I think ordering Model 3 today is still a better deal than waiting for the Y, unless he is only shopping for an SUV. In this case Model Y is a better deal than anything else on the market.

Take out the tax incentive consideration. Model Y is $4k more than Model 3, except the performance version. Performance Y is $2k more than Performance 3.

 

[Fact Checking]

No solar?

Not really needed for the GF3: China's energy was already ~36% renewable last year, growing rapidly.

 

[ReflexFunds]

My recollection could be wrong but I remember BMW bringing an unprecedented % of parts assembly in house in order to both improve margins and speed of execution.

Today they have the highest profit margins in the business even though they were seen as taking unnecessary risks 10-15 years ago.

BMW doesn't have much vertical integration, they don't even always do body & assembly in-house. Toyota has by far the most vertical integration out of traditional OEMs (when including its whole web of semi owned suppliers), but even Toyota has less vertical integration than Tesla.
You can't just immediately brings things in-house in any case, it takes years to develop the IP in-house before you even think about planning mass production.

 

[Fact Checking]

Reminder for today, the Model Y is looking sexy AF:

Forget about the brief Model Y appearance at yesterday's promotional event for Tesla's current products.

 

[voip-ninja]

So now we think Tesla should be using the markets. 6 months ago everyone was saying they shouldn't and it was a sign of their impending doom. Don't you get it? Tesla is damned if they do, damned if they don't. It doesn't matter what they do or say the people that want to see the market move a certain direction are going to make it do just that.

So, what they appear to be doing (and it is very refreshing to see for me) is they are just doing what is in the company's best interest. Let the movers and shakers spin it however they want. Do we know where Model Y is going to be built for sure? No, but I bet Elon and team do. Do we know what margins Model 3 is being built with for sure? No, but I bet Elon and team do. Do we know what the delivery sequencing and priorities are for the next year? No, but I bet Elon and team do. Do we know for sure when Model Y will begin delivery? No, but I bet Elon and team do. Do we know the ramp status of the energy side of the business? No, but I bet Elon and team do.

If any information they share is just going to be spun to be used against them, why should they bother sharing anything above what is required? Keep your head down, your nose to the grindstone, and continue to make decisions that are in the best interest of the company. I believe that's what Tesla is doing at this point.

Dan

In that case then people should stop bitching about what the stock price is doing and stop whining that it should be higher "because".

 

[Radpioneer]

Look, this is the way it is. It's the way it has been for years now with this company. It has gotten worse lately but it is no different. Positive news will NEVER cause any significant rise in stock price as long as short interest sees an opportunity to make money. They can manipulate the market at will. They have proven it time and time again. The SEC will certainly not do anything to stop it. They have made that crystal clear. So why is anybody surprised by today's stock price? They are loving this.

If you are long...stay long.
If you are short...keep riding the BS train as long as you can.

If you are Tesla...keep doing the things that you know will allow you to succeed in the long run. They have finally reached the point where they are not nearly as dependent on the market for capital so try to turn a blind eye to it all and keep going.

Yes, it's frustrating. Infuriating really, but it certainly is not unexpected.

Dan

.....THIS!!!!....

 

[voip-ninja]

Reminder for today, the Model Y is looking sexy AF:
View attachment 386660

I'm indeed tempted, but Tesla will have to fix the problems in my Model 3 before I give them another dime.

 

[lascavarian]

Sorry, you misread my question. I do know the truck has a space for the spare. It is the SUV that I need to know if it holds a spare.

Darn, just when I thought I was being useful. Good question on the SUV.

 

[Fobble]

On CNBC right now:
Jeff Osborne is bear on Tesla with stock price target 200. As expected, the "$2500" deposit instead of the conventional $1000 is sign of cash crunch"

 

[Cosmacelf]

Absurd? Tesla has a market cap nearly that of GM and they sell less than 4% of what GM does annually in units.

Yes, the technology is amazing but they seem to continue to struggle with execution.

You are annoyed the stock is depressed and yo-yo'ing but you have to look at the yo-yo coming out of the Tesla boardroom with yo-yo of model pricing, feature pricing, store closings, etc.

Unit sales means nothing. GM annual revenue is $150B and declining. Tesla has a current run rate of $28B/yr and will do, what $40B this year? With double digit growth going forward. And with much higher margins. GM makes mistakes too, but they tend to be strategic mistakes. Tesla generally only makes smaller tactical mistakes. But people have a very hard time understanding long term strategy so this gets discounted.

 

[Curt Renz]

Barron's - 17 minutes ago: Tesla Unveiled the Model Y. Here’s What Analysts Are Saying.

 

[voip-ninja]

Why are you making a disingenuous unit comparison to GM, rather than the more appropriate BMW?

Use BMW then. They have similar market cap to GM. How many units did BMW ship in 2018? 2+ million?

 

[brian45011]

Not really needed for the GF3: China's energy was already ~36% renewable last year, growing rapidly.

Any idea of the cost spread between self-generated electricity and Chinese grid rates?

 

[voip-ninja]

Unit sales means nothing. GM annual revenue is $150B and declining. Tesla has a current run rate of $28B/yr and will do, what $40B this year? With double digit growth going forward. And with much higher margins. GM makes mistakes too, but they tend to be strategic mistakes. Tesla generally only makes smaller tactical mistakes. But people have a very hard time understanding long term strategy so this gets discounted.

The stock price represents confidence that Tesla can make good on that and execute. Will they? Time will tell. If Tesla growth and execution were high confidence the price would be higher, period.

Facebook is a steaming pile of dogshit and has market cap of nearly .5T.... probably because Facebook have demonstrated they are evil masters of selling ads to their addicted users.