Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JohnnyEnglish]

Good summary!

One thing I'm confused by is on the slide at 29:20


That must be a very recent release to have so few Autopilot miles, but there does not seem to be a recent release according to TeslaFI (last was 2021.4.18.3 on 10 June).

Perhaps this is still only being tested and hence not on general release. From memory he implied it was only created at the beginning of June, so possibly currently only used by their 800 or so internal testers?

 

[MikeAtkinson]

One thing I'm confused by is on the slide at 29:20

Release
15M miles
1.7M on Autopilot (0 crashes)

That must be a very recent release to have so few Autopilot miles, but there does not seem to be a recent release according to TeslaFI (last was 2021.4.18.3 on 10 June).

Or only HW3 cars.
Or massively reduced travel due to corona in many parts of the world.
Or only a rollout in US.

There can be MANY reasons for these numbers.

But it is US (where the majority of the cars are), most cars are HW3 and travel has not been reduced that much).

About 15% of cars are on 2021.4.18.3 and almost all are on 2021.4.18.x, it seems unlikely to me that such a significant change would be part of a point release, and not mentioned in the release notes (it is not mentioned in the release notes for any of the 2021.4.18.x series).

The US fleet of HW3 cars with Autopilot probably drive 1.7M miles every day or two. So what release is Karpathy talking about?

I think most likely is that Karpathy is talking about a Release to the deployment team. The QA testing might be 1.7M miles, deployment is likely staged with Tesla beta test employees first. If so we can expect a public release in the next day or so.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Tell Gary Black the TSLA PR team is alive and well.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1406684503427399686

 

[Buckminster]

Seems like the SP could go to 699 without the MMs losing much this week.

 

[AimStellar]

One thing I'm confused by is on the slide at 29:20


That must be a very recent release to have so few Autopilot miles, but there does not seem to be a recent release according to TeslaFI (last was 2021.4.18.3 on 10 June).



But it is US (where the majority of the cars are), most cars are HW3 and travel has not been reduced that much).

About 15% of cars are on 2021.4.18.3 and almost all are on 2021.4.18.x, it seems unlikely to me that such a significant change would be part of a point release, and not mentioned in the release notes (it is not mentioned in the release notes for any of the 2021.4.18.x series).

The US fleet of HW3 cars with Autopilot probably drive 1.7M miles every day or two. So what release is Karpathy talking about?

I think most likely is that Karpathy is talking about a Release to the deployment team. The QA testing might be 1.7M miles, deployment is likely staged with Tesla beta test employees first. If so we can expect a public release in the next day or so.

My impression was 1.7M miles driven on Autopilot by Tesla vehicles without radar.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

You missed my point then.

Because I'm saying the S&X rollout probably did not involve major blunders, more likely the timing of the roll-out was designed around some supply issues that turned out more serious than hoped. So, even if the refresh didn't happen until this fall, there probably still would have been a shortage of finish product to sell. From where I sit, it looks like Tesla tried to time the roll-out (which always impacts production somewhat) to a forced shutdown of the line due to a lack of critical parts. It's not necessarily a blunder to try to make the best of a bad situation by accelerating a planned refresh.

Decision making always appraises the magnitude of impact if things don't go your way. If the magnitude of impact is low enough you might take more chances. Just because it appears it didn't work out doesn't mean it was an error and the kind of chances that might be taken when little is at risk are not likely to be taken when much is at risk. It looks to me that Tesla has some limited supply problems. If so, it can be impossible to accurately predict when the replacements will arrive and in what quantity. So what we are seeing probably has more to do with supply issues that are mostly beyond their control than a botched roll-out. In fact, it looks like they still have a supply problem based on all those Model S sitting at the factory.

Logical risk taking has been a major driver of Tesla's performance to date. Without risk taking Tesla would be halfway to GM or Ford whose corporate culture is designed to make every little decision risk-adverse - even when it harms the quality of the products and reduces profits overall.

That's all well and good except Jerome essentially got fired and cashed out all his stock. So either Elon was axing someone completely irrationally, or major mistakes were made in execution.

Believe it or not, Elon and Tesla are both capable of major mistakes. It's not the end of the world.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

View attachment 675768
Seems like the SP could go to 699 without the MMs losing much this week.

That was my assumption last week. They cover and lose basically nothing. Must be nice!

 

[Artful Dodger]

What is going on these days? Why is it so common to misspell "brake" as "break"?

It's an artifact of translation from the Chinese social media term for "break", which is 特斯拉.

/s

 

[Drezil]

View attachment 675768
Seems like the SP could go to 699 without the MMs losing much this week.

I am looking at the same website as you .. but i get different numbers ...
They were there already 2 hours ago when i checked first. And i just refreshed to not have a bad cache-version.. And still.. i have a Call-spike at 650, where you have a put-spike..
This is very strange.

 

[ZsoZso]

Several years back, @TrendTrader007 used to post here regularly. Typically would be a message like "Based on the chart, $TSLA poised for huge break out to $XXX" - this is OK, but he'd post these every other week, of course it never happened and he ended up getting laughed at so much that he left, returned, left, returned, then finally left, until he returns again...

He couldn't handle people criticising his perpetual proclamations and started to be abusive, with stuff like "screw you amateurs, I've more money than all of you combined, go f yourselves", or words to that effect

We never knew how much $TSLA he had, but he implied it was >100k shares pre-split. He was forever flipping in and out of stock and calls. In theory he should be a billionaire by now, who knows...

I follow him on Twitter, he's somewhat schizophrenic, one day he's loading on $TSLA, the next he claims the apocalypse is coming and he has sold everything and moved into cash

He was heavily over-leveraged on options, sometimes got margin called or lost $$$ on short term uber-bullish option trades that did not work out. That is why I found it funny how his girlfriend was going on about how Elon does not care about "investors" with his emotional tweets that damage the stock price from time to time. Of course, the reality is that Elon's tweets never damaged investors (who buy and hold shares for long term), but often damaged people like TT who are more like gamblers with over-leveraged short term options.

 

[Artful Dodger]

That must be a very recent release to have so few Autopilot miles, but there does not seem to be a recent release according to TeslaFI (last was 2021.4.18.3 on 10 June).

Andrei says they are testing new releases in shadow mode. This is almost certainly not the release no. reported to TeslaFi.

Would be nice to know how far along the 7 releases we are, but no matter. It's ready when its done...

Cheers!

 

[jbcarioca]

You missed my point then.

Because I'm saying the S&X rollout probably did not involve major blunders, more likely the timing of the roll-out was designed around some supply issues that turned out more serious than hoped. So, even if the refresh didn't happen until this fall, there probably still would have been a shortage of finish product to sell. From where I sit, it looks like Tesla tried to time the roll-out (which always impacts production somewhat) to a forced shutdown of the line due to a lack of critical parts. It's not necessarily a blunder to try to make the best of a bad situation by accelerating a planned refresh.

Decision making always appraises the magnitude of impact if things don't go your way. If the magnitude of impact is low enough you might take more chances. Just because it appears it didn't work out doesn't mean it was an error and the kind of chances that might be taken when little is at risk are not likely to be taken when much is at risk. It looks to me that Tesla has some limited supply problems. If so, it can be impossible to accurately predict when the replacements will arrive and in what quantity. So what we are seeing probably has more to do with supply issues that are mostly beyond their control than a botched roll-out. In fact, it looks like they still have a supply problem based on all those Model S sitting at the factory.

Logical risk taking has been a major driver of Tesla's performance to date. Without risk taking Tesla would be halfway to GM or Ford whose corporate culture is designed to make every little decision risk-adverse - even when it harms the quality of the products and reduces profits overall.

Possibly too pedantic: GM and Ford may be risk-'averse' in order to reduce 'adverse' effects.

 

[saniflash]

View attachment 675786
I am looking at the same website as you .. but i get different numbers ...
They were there already 2 hours ago when i checked first. And i just refreshed to not have a bad cache-version.. And still.. i have a Call-spike at 650, where you have a put-spike..
This is very strange.

same here. call spikes at 650 & 700. y-axis artificially inflated due to 450 puts... I don't think they'd let it run past 650, especially if the light volume continues

 

[Buckminster]

View attachment 675786
I am looking at the same website as you .. but i get different numbers ...
They were there already 2 hours ago when i checked first. And i just refreshed to not have a bad cache-version.. And still.. i have a Call-spike at 650, where you have a put-spike..
This is very strange.

I borrowed from Papafox. I see the same as you actually. Either way is bullish. Next week also.

 

[Artful Dodger]

View attachment 675786
I am looking at the same website as you .. but i get different numbers ...
They were there already 2 hours ago when i checked first. And i just refreshed to not have a bad cache-version.. And still.. i have a Call-spike at 650, where you have a put-spike..
This is very strange.

The charts on that page, and the Max-pain calculation, are revised once per day, usually around 07:00 ET.

If you have viewed the chart around that time and think you are still seeing yesterday's data, the only way to get around their cookie-based server-side caching is open the link in a new Private window. HTH.

Cheers!

 

[jbcarioca]

So much talk about the Texas grid and fossil fuels for obvious reasons, but sufficient installations of Solar, Wind, and storage on the West Coast grid to displace Pacific NW hydro can’t happen soon enough IMO as well. Your west coast heat map is the catalyst for this comment - thanks for sharing it!

The 8 federal hydro dams on the Columbia and Snake Rivers and the ~16 dam projects upstream on the Snake River all the way to the Tetons have replaced an ice cold snow run off river system with a steady titration of warmer water through the 24 pools into the ocean - so warm that another dam in Idaho (Dworshak Dam) is spilled from the 4th of July through September in an effort to bring water temps down below 70 degrees to get the adult salmon to be willing to return on those systems. More than 250,000 cfs of warmer than historical water flowing 24/7 helping to heat the oceans......but it’s green energy, right? More like ‘red’ energy like the west coast temp map. Throw the Yangtze and the forthcoming Mekong River projects on top of that and the Pacific is a warming bathtub. Even more so when a trickle from the steaming hot Colorado River is allowed to reach salt water on rare occasion. Hopefully we will never see Alaska’s proposed Susitna River hydro projects adding more warm water to the mix.

Fortunately the Levelized Cost of Energy for that hydro is around twice the current cost of renewables plus storage, so the curtain is already coming down for hydro being competitive on the same grid. Tony Seba and crew have done an excellent job portraying this in recent videos. What they haven’t discussed is thermal pollution from those projects. There is still a huge debate around the value of transportation and of irrigation as a result of the dams, which will extend the debate for some time to come regarding dam removal. But fortunately Kimball and Elon are diligently working to improve feeding the world and more sustainable transportation, as well as accelerating the transition to renewables plus storage. There is a fascinating project underway now that will include multiple Tesla Megapacks and over 2 million solar panels in Idaho that when completed will generate and store sufficient energy to be able to fully replace the energy created by the 4 Lower Snake River Dams. And every new solar project in California, Arizona, and Nevada only accelerates that effort on the same grid.

(Note - I am a proponent of lake fed hydro projects such as Snettisham near Juneau, Alaska and the many I have worked on and operated in remote Alaska locations, as they have negligible effects on water temps. But I think it is time we start talking more openly about the impacts of some hydro projects as the oceans continue to warm).

As usual Paracelsus shares information that is of critical importance to the Tesla mission and to global lives.
A slight additional note, please correct me if I am correct:
Even if there were no negative consequences from hydropower, in many areas from the Andes to the Himalayas the snow packs are rapidly diminishing, so in many areas, from Itaipu and Three Gorges to Hoover the water levels are threatening power production and water distribution.
The Tesla mission, specifically the storage products need truly massive expansion in order to facilitate the gigantic wind and solar projects that are now the cheapest energy source, not just the best. Of course we need every single decent battery supplier, not only Tesla. As the new wind machines are continuing to get bigger, more efficient and more durable the storage component is more crucial. Of course we all know about the solar-battery symbiosis.

When Elon suggests Tesla Energy could be as large as automotive he's surely correct. The perennial problem is increasing capacity .
FWIW, nobody else seems to have a versatile pricing tool to compete with Autobidder.

 

[MABMAB]

Karpathy talk he confirms what I've thought to be occurring. FSD Beta running in shadow mode in other cars.
aka-updates that included minor fixes
really are great shadow mode improvements!

 

[elasalle]

Supporting TSLA by buying some BTC on the early morning dip ... lunch money

 

[MABMAB]

Tesla has # 5 supercomputer in the WORLD

 

[Chenkers]

I am looking at the same website as you .. but i get different numbers ...
They were there already 2 hours ago when i checked first. And i just refreshed to not have a bad cache-version.. And still.. i have a Call-spike at 650, where you have a put-spike..
This is very strange.

There was a much stronger Put wall at 650 last week but it's been progressively diminishing with the Calls gaining. Now with the latest OI chart the Puts have all but disappeared, possibly rolled out or bought back. As it currently stands the balance point between Puts and Calls is slightly below 620. But that is likely to change as the week rolls on and will rise if there's enough buying interest into P&D. Although 650 looks to be a solid wall against large increases for now.