Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[zach_]

It’s the timing of this tweet that I find intriguing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1407868620680699908

I'm bored so...

If we chose to interpret this tweet as indicating that at that point in time Q2 deliveries had exceeded Q1 we can make some guesses.

First we have to take a guess at how deliveries are distributed throughout the quarter. I don't know if there is a good approximation (or actual data) out there, so I am going to assume 20%/35%/45% (Months 1, 2 and 3) as a WAG.

Using this we could then guess that the percent of completed deliveries on June 23rd would be: 20% + 35% + ((23/30) * 45%) = 89.5% of expected deliveries for the quarter.

Therefore the guess for deliveries for Q2 would be 184,800 / 0.895 = 206,480 (And a half!)

Two things to note here though, first is that I think there is substance to there not being exports from china in June. This would drag down my estimate (as the actual % of completed deliveries on June 23rd would be higher, due to little to no deliveries in China at the end of the month), however I think my estimate for distribution of deliveries is probably underestimating the % of cars delivered in the final month. So I'm just going to assume these cancel out... because that's easier.

Given that there seems to be some validity to China preparing cars for export earlier in the quarter that won't be delivered in Q2 (I conclude this from the rumored local china deliveries in June, and the flyover video(s?) that showed cars prepped for export earlier than normal), I'll add in some build up of inventory. Someone here mentioned ~8k so let's just do that.

Round down a bit because I am cautious and I (some no name lurker) am "forecasting" 206,000 delivered and 214,000 produced. If I'm wrong no one will remember this post anyway.

 

[juanmedina]

On the last day of Q2 when TSLA is set to knock it out of the park on earnings, an empty Tesla in a secluded neighborhood, driving on autopilot with no driver to be found burns up. Nope, not skeptical at all (sarcasm). I do regret not having kept a running tally of such events within a couple days of earnings over the last decade. These end-of-quarter Tesla vehicle sacrifices have certainly put a dent in the TSLAQ operating fund and left a few of those folks camping out in mom’s basement far longer than intended

Exactly! that what I was thinking when I read the article. Why stuff like this always happens before earnings or an important Tesla event.

 

[MABMAB]

Test rides in model y? Another forum I read someone was to schedule a test ride for this weekend, now says they cant even schedule one until September. I am waiting for follow up on this. Has anyone here have recent test ride experience that they can comment on? Anyone willing to call tesla to try and schedule one? If true, it would be bullish as fantabulous! Edit add: I just tried to schedule one but it is all done online and have to wait for a phone call. Perhaps that other person wanted a ride but did not know how far out it would be?

WOW, so this person just said they originally schedule for this weekend then got a text saying none available until September!!!

BUY BUY BUY

 

[ThortsMD]

I paid 43k for my Model 3 including incentives
In less than 1h on Facebook Marketplace, someone came to buy it for 42k.

can’t believe my 2019 SR Model 3 lost $1000 in value after 2 years and 45,000 kilometres.

the guy did not want to wait till September to get one from Tesla, he had just graduated and wanted to go in a road trip in a Tesla.
Now waiting for the 2nd Model Y for my wife and cybertruck.
Used Teslas are selling faster than hotcakes.
I have never been so bullish since I started investing in 2012.

6 months ago, Tesla quoted $17K in trade in for my 2013 S85. Yesterday, I ordered a red X with FSD to replace it. I got my trade in value just now...$21.3K. Corroborates what OrthoSurg said.

 

[Criscmt]

Even a scenario with 190k deliveries will produce beautiful financials. Yes. I said, "Beautiful".
I will run scenarios tomorrow at 190k, 195k and 200k.

I am sorry, my curiosity was on your delivery estimates, if you happened to revise those based on the data points from the last few days.

 

[AZRI11]

Driving uphill while ablaze? Is somebody using summon while setting a Plaid Model S on fire?

https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/ob11dh

 

[elasalle]

Well this is one way to verify the battery format for Plaid. (A Plaid was destroyed by fire in Pennsylvania - source of fire is unknown.)

Brand new Tesla Model S Plaid destroyed by fire in Pennsylvania [Update]

A brand new Tesla Model S Plaid has been destroyed in a fire last night in Gladwyne, Pennsylvania. No injuries have been reported.

driveteslacanada.ca

View attachment 679893

No 4680 cells.
Sandy, pls stop the plaid teardown

 

[gabeincal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1410414298791247873

 

[AZRI11]

Police are looking for this person of interest who may have some information on the Plaid Model S fire

 

[geometro]

If the stock retreats due to P&D and/or nonsense it will be time to back up the truck.
Spent last weekend driving across I-10 and I-5 and saw at least 7 trucks loaded with all models (S, 3 and Y predominantly)… all heading away from Fremont.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Someone drove over a hunk of metal on the highway and damaged their pack. Pretty standard.

I'll see if I can get the video my roommate took of an ice sedan burning in the middle of the street in Philly a month ago. It even spread to the F150 parked nearby and destroyed that too.

 

[The Accountant]

I am sorry, my curiosity was on your delivery estimates, if you happened to revise those based on the data points from the last few days.

My expertise is with the financials. My track record forecasting deliveries is so so. Please consider this when assessing the number.
If I take the numbers from Tesla_China_Analyst (and the CPCA) for Shanghai, I come up with 196,208 deliveries as outlined below.
This number will still produce Record-Breaking Revenues, Gross Profit, GAAP Income and Non-GAAP income.

 

[BornToFly]

196,208 would be more than 100% growth YOY (Q2 2020 was 90,891). I'm sure that fact will be in every headline over the weekend.

 

[BornToFly]

I'm really torn about selling options tomorrow. At this point, I don't have high confidence that we see a WallStreet beat on delivery, and I don't know how the SP will react. I feel like a short term options play at this point is true gambling. Add a morning fire related dip, and selling covered calls tomorrow might not be worth it. I Need more patience....

 

[mickificki]

Gene Munster and Rob Maurer on Q2 deliveries preview.

 

[Criscmt]

Tesla Above Early Entry With Q2 Deliveries On Tap

Analysts expect Tesla deliveries to nearly hit 200,000 in the second quarter. Tesla stock is above an early buy point.

www.investors.com

Wall Street analysts expect deliveries of 196,700 vehicles, according to FactSet. That would be a 6.4% increase from the last quarter and more than double the year-ago figure of 90,900, when the Fremont, California, plant was closed for much of the quarter. FactSet estimates Tesla will deliver 193,500 Model 3/Y cars and 3,200 Model S/X vehicles.

RBC Capital analysts led by Joseph Spak forecast deliveries of about 195,000…
Spak sees 72,500 of those coming from the U.S. and 63,607 from China. Europe is expected to account for 35,000 deliveries. Canada and the rest of the world should account for the balance of 24,000.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Yeah a brand new parked vehicle, not even charging, going up like that on it's own would be less than ideal.

Quick: does the Exxon guy in the previous lobbying video have an alibi ?

 

[madodel]

Someone drove over a hunk of metal on the highway and damaged their pack. Pretty standard.

I'll see if I can get the video my roommate took of an ice sedan burning in the middle of the street in Philly a month ago. It even spread to the F150 parked nearby and destroyed that too.

Are you implying that gasoline burns? Next you'll be scaring people that hydrogen can be dangerous.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Am I the only one who finds it suspicious that a Model S mysteriously catches on fire and burns with no driver inside exactly at the end of every quarter? And for some reason the media is always ready with a flood of stories about it featuring oddly well-informed local officials who always know there was no one in the car and it was driving itself?

I wonder how much someone is paying to buy these cars, set them up with some sort of incendiary, plan and execute the car's destruction, and then pay off local officials and the media. The amount of work and funding needed to coordinate this every quarter is impressive.

 

[Wicket]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1410249419879030792

A 900 Price Target from Deutsche Bank and a 2m unit 100B$ forecast for 2025? wow.

I'm at 4.5m units for 2025 and still thinking 900 is about as high as it goes this year. Only 2m units in 2025 would suggest that Tesla has lost marketshare which has a kind of nonlinear effect on price estimates since it would indicate lack of competitive leadership and suggest lower multiples. VW will probably sell more than 2m units in 2025.

The part of DCF I don't much care for is the low discount rate. I think the market requires more than 11% or so to account for risk (high variability in actual vs. modelled outcomes) and never quite understood this academic approach that doesn't much square with how markets actually trade. Tesla could be 2m to 6m units in 2025 and margins all over the map. Robotaxi and Energy are nearly unmodellable and both could be explosive in outer years. So pinpointing a price with a small discount rate just doesn't seem appropriate. I'd rather be more honest about the potential midpoint of outcome (which is scary high -- like closer to 4.5m units than 2m), and then discount higher.

But seriously, barely over 100% growth from 900k in 2021 in 4 years? That's like 20% growth per annum. I don't think TSLA can sit at 1.5T market cap in 2025 with only 100B$ in revenue (I'm expecting 80B+ in 2022!) and < 20% growth rates. Even at 20% net margin (which would be pretty nutty) that's 20B$ in profit and a 75x p/e on < 20% revenue growth and probably maxed out margin expansion so similar profit growth. No way I'd be in this stock at 2m units in 2025.

I guess the best theory I can work out for this is that 900 is as high as they are personally willing to go based on the drawbacks of being an outlier to consensus (and having a price target too high). It seems constructed to show 900 as a minimum not a real honest price target, which means as soon as it approaches 900 they will suddenly start adding things to raise the target even if the information that is collected in between hasn't materially changed. I suspect the incentive structure for an honest PT is simply busted.