Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Drumheller]

Neroden did...

As did I. I would guess many people that have a background in software development expect this to be a very difficult problem. I'm on my second Tesla and have not purchased FSD. I will take a wait and see approach. Once it is live, I will still be skeptical of trusting it. I'm excited about Tesla's approach to the problem and believe they will solve it first, but it could be soon or 5 more years.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

20 p/s is hard to maintain for a company with 30% gross margin. Netflix is now running at about 7x and has higher terminal net income margins and still decent growth. But p/s only needs to decline slowly and perhaps settle eventually in 4x-5x range (e.g 20% net profit and 25x p/e maybe in 2030+). My expectation is 1T revenue and 4x -7x p/s in 2030 which still allows a 10x from here. That may change as robotaxi comes into better focus.

Definitely agree that Tesla p/s will come down as the company's growth matures, but we're talking 2 years at minimum for the revenue growth rate to drop below 50%. Netflix's yoy growth is about 20-25% right now and actually been shrinking, not expanding (due to Covid coming to an end which was to be expected). So since Tesla will have a revenue growth rate in the 75-90% range for the next couple of years, it absolutely should have a p/s ratio of 3X Netflix's.

When it comes to net income, yes Netflix is about 4X Tesla's right now, but smart investors 1) Can see the obvious hits to Tesla net income right now (cough Elon's pay package) and how once that goes away net income will jump accordingly and 2) As Accountant has pointed out in his model, just moderate increase in deliveries with little to no corresponding operating expense increase leads to very fast gains in net income. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that by Q4 when Giga China is running full production, Elon's pay package has dwindled to only a 100 million per quarter hit, etc.....that we'll see Tesla's net income start to get in the realm of Netflix's, especially if Tesla can actually release FSD wide and the sub model.

 

[winfield100]

I am new to SEC filing divination also, so grain of salt. Your position summation/ aggregation is correct. The 13F only reports long positions, so written options and short positions are not listed. Thus, we could be seeing one half of spread positions, or they could be paired as straddles or strangles (at much higher cost).

SEC Form 13F
SEC.gov | Frequently Asked Questions About Form 13F

so the appx $59 Billion in stocks and options are just the _long_ positions
?blood in the water, sharks circling, reek of desperation? financial time bombs, adversely leveraged to”black friday” levels?

i can definitely see a need for more timely _short_ position reporting along with certified stocks to reduce “nekkkid/counterfeit” shares.

i’m hoping folks with a lot more financial acumen can investigate, perhaps making some coin for their troubles, as i’m just an innocent naïf in the area.

 

[StealthP3D]

Would it still be less often if the avg ev were 12 years old, average price was 18k, and they were driven by more dangerous driver demographics?

Or are you an apples to oranges type?

Yes, it would still be less often because current statistics show that a gas car is over 10 times more likely to catch fire. The time when the average age of an EV is 12 years old will not happen for decades. When it does, EV's will STILL be less likely to catch fire because they are not full of a highly flammable liquid and the safety of EV's will be even higher than it is currently because battery technology and safety will have advanced.

There is a principle involved here that is distorting your ability to see the obvious truth. Namely, the familiarity principle. You are familiar with gas cars and view them as basically pretty safe while EV's seem foreign to you still and, thus, appear to have unknown dangers lurking.

 

[mongo]

so the appx $59 Billion in stocks and options are just the _long_ positions
?blood in the water, sharks circling, reek of desperation? financial time bombs, adversely leveraged to”black friday” levels?

i can definitely see a need for more timely _short_ position reporting along with certified stocks to reduce “nekkkid/counterfeit” shares.

i’m hoping folks with a lot more financial acumen can investigate, perhaps making some coin for their troubles, as i’m just an innocent naïf in the area.

Important clarification : the value listed for the options is based on stock price * shares represented, NOT the premium (actual cost or amount at risk).

 

[SwTslaGrl]

"A look at some of the battery gigafactories in the works all across Germany (YouTube: Germany Trade & Invest)"

 

[EVDRVN]

There was a previous vehicle fire in Norway caused by an HV short. If the Plaid is set up like 3/Y with a HV electronics penthouse on the top of the pack under the rear seat, then a thermal event could start there and then spread to to interior and pack (as opposed to starting in the cells).
Tesla Identifies Cause for Model S Fire in Norway

A fire in France was due to an improperly tightened human made connection.
Tesla says Model S fire in France was due to 'electrical connection improperly tightened' by a human instead of robots - Electrek

Same thing happens in home electrical systems (more recently EV charging sockets).

Yes but there would be faults. The HV lines have fault detection alerts. I would be surprised if there were not alerts before he detected the fire if not at the same time which seems odd. Anything is possible knowing some of the workers at the Tesla factory. Also he drove seeing no faults but long enough to disable the 12V system? This assume massive redundant failures, HV burning fast and at mid/read then fast enough to disable the 12 system. I think there are detail in the story that are out of order, wrong or just filled in.

 

[Buckminster]

Answer to soon begins about 47 seconds in

I heard midday tomorrow. 4th of July Easter egg from Elon. Sounds legit. I'll take that. You heard it here first.

More short sentences tomorrow.

 

[winfield100]

Important clarification : the value listed for the options is based on stock price * shares represented, NOT the premium (actual cost or amount at risk).

thank you, except even divided by 1,000 it would be $59 million, so i am even more comfortable not dealing with options in any way, as my confusion levels increase, back to more lurking, and consuming food for the weekend, too nice a day

 

[JRP3]

Neroden: Didn't know making money off Tesla shares was going to be so hard. Sold at 45 dollars...RIP.

True but for him it was an issue of principles and integrity not money. He didn't like certain aspects of the company and lost faith in management so he got out. Also we don't know what he did with the proceeds, maybe he went all in Dogecoin

 

[lafrisbee]

The Model S Plaid fire along with this headline verifies what I have said all along even though some of you laugh at me...

WE ARE ARE JUST ANTS!

 

[FireMedic]

"A look at some of the battery gigafactories in the works all across Germany (YouTube: Germany Trade & Invest)"

Very polished video; and very promising for Germany to see all this new investment in battery infrastructure. Does seem like they’re coming to the game a little late though… Curious if our German based EV expert @avoigt could weigh in on this a bit.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

True but for him it was an issue of principles and integrity not money. He didn't like certain aspects of the company and lost faith in management so he got out. Also we don't know what he did with the proceeds, maybe he went all in Dogecoin

To be specific, he heard someone was unhappy with the service they received and gave up on the whole company because of it. I still scratch my head to this day. When dealing with every big company, someone is unhappy about customer service somewhere. Imagine deciding the whole company was irredeemable because of it. His loss, I suppose.

 

[JRP3]

To be specific, he heard someone was unhappy with the service they received and gave up on the whole company because of it.

Not at all accurate. As an early Model S owner he had years of poor service from Tesla as well knowing others with similar experiences. That coupled with other issues caused him to bail.

 

[Barklikeadog]

Yes, it would still be less often because current statistics show that a gas car is over 10 times more likely to catch fire. The time when the average age of an EV is 12 years old will not happen for decades. When it does, EV's will STILL be less likely to catch fire because they are not full of a highly flammable liquid and the safety of EV's will be even higher than it is currently because battery technology and safety will have advanced.

There is a principle involved here that is distorting your ability to see the obvious truth. Namely, the familiarity principle. You are familiar with gas cars and view them as basically pretty safe while EV's seem foreign to you still and, thus, appear to have unknown dangers lurking.

Thanks for telling me what I am familiar with.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

2 weeks > soon?

or

Soon > 2 weeks?

Hoping that FSD Beta 9 goes to the 2k testers prior to the ER so that we are able to view some videos and assess progress and avoid loads of questions on FSD at the ER itself. If the Beta is out to testers they will be able to deflect questions at the ER to AI day.

A Beta 9 release prior to ER would also provide some level of confidence regarding when a broad release to FSD users in the US could occur.

Whilst updating my financial model to reflect the Q2 P/D figures I spent some time thinking about the impact of the broad release of FSD and the availability of FSD subscription. Several posters have already pointed to the fact that this might lead to a reduction in FSD income initially as some users decide to use FSD subscription in place of a one-off purchase. I am sure that will be one effect. However:

1. by Q3 end there will be around 1.5M model 3/Y that are FSD capable and close to 200k S/X, and if it is true that FSD uptake has been around 40% in NA/Europe but much lower in China then it is likely that at least 1M of these vehicles do not have FSD. If say 10% of these owners decide to purchase FSD once it delivers the Beta 9 level of functionality that would be an additional $1B of revenue (perhaps spread across the 2 quarters after broad release), all of which would go to profit.
2. the availability of FSD that offers almost intervention free journeys would increase the take rate for FSD, and it is likely that many of these users would want to lock in the cost rather than run the risk of the subscription increasing over time as the functionality improves.

I suppose the key point I am trying to make is that these effects might be sufficient to offset any fall in FSD revenue whilst subscription volume builds up.

 

[Barklikeadog]

Hoping that FSD Beta 9 goes to the 2k testers prior to the ER so that we are able to view some videos and assess progress and avoid loads of questions on FSD at the ER itself. If the Beta is out to testers they will be able to deflect questions at the ER to AI day.

A Beta 9 release prior to ER would also provide some level of confidence regarding when a broad release to FSD users in the US could occur.

Whilst updating my financial model to reflect the Q2 P/D figures I spent some time thinking about the impact of the broad release of FSD and the availability of FSD subscription. Several posters have already pointed to the fact that this might lead to a reduction in FSD income initially as some users decide to use FSD subscription in place of a one-off purchase. I am sure that will be one effect. However:

1. by Q3 end there will be around 1.5M model 3/Y that are FSD capable and close to 200k S/X, and if it is true that FSD uptake has been around 40% in NA/Europe but much lower in China then it is likely that at least 1M of these vehicles do not have FSD. If say 10% of these owners decide to purchase FSD once it delivers the Beta 9 level of functionality that would be an additional $1B of revenue (perhaps spread across the 2 quarters after broad release), all of which would go to profit.
2. the availability of FSD that offers almost intervention free journeys would increase the take rate for FSD, and it is likely that many of these users would want to lock in the cost rather than run the risk of the subscription increasing over time as the functionality improves.

I suppose the key point I am trying to make is that these effects might be sufficient to offset any fall in FSD revenue whilst subscription volume builds up.

FSD capable meaning Doc Brown could take the car 30 years in the future and have it retrofitted?

Couldn't help myself

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Plot getting thicker:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1411062252493475846

The question is, is this guy in charge of Bitcoin investing or TSLA call selling?

Did I hear right that Susquehanna became a big TSLA holder purely because of hedging sold calls? That must’ve been a painful process.

Lol....I've known Bart for 30 years, though I don't think I've said a word to him in 20. Funny stuff.

I'll ask around and see if we can get the scoop on what's happening here.

 

[S3XY]

Lawyer cancelled. When does a lawyer ever give up free air time?

Mission accomplished. Just the suggestion of him appearing is all that's needed to affect the SP.

 

[Krugerrand]

True but for him it was an issue of principles and integrity not money. He didn't like certain aspects of the company and lost faith in management so he got out. Also we don't know what he did with the proceeds, maybe he went all in Dogecoin

I’m disagreeing with that take but not going to explain it because it’s against forum rules to talk about that person. And you know me; always following forum rules to the T.