Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jbcarioca]

Resistance is futile.

You will be accelerated, um, er, assimilated, by the Plaid collective.

Things did not seem to end so well for the Borg. OTOH the Plaid one does have some quite outstanding AI.

 

[MP3Mike]

Depends on the market. In Hungary there is a 20.000 EUR price difference between the LR Model Y and the ID.4 Pro. The Y is 44% more expensive. In Germany the Model Y is 13.000 EUR more expensive.

The Model Y pricing is more in line with BMW iX3 and Mercedes EQC 400 and not competitive with cheaper, but fairly advanced cars like the Hyundai Ioniq 5 and the Kia EV6. On the one hand this is a bit of a disappointment as a customer, and the hope is that once Berlin starts up, prices will come down. On the other hand, as a shareholder, it puts the "China demand cliff" discussion to rest for me. If demand was significantly down, they would be shipping more of theses to Europe at much more competitive prices.

Are you comparing them when similarly equipped, or are you comparing the cheapest, unoptioned, ID.4 to the cheapest Model Y?

 

[EVMeister]

Really...every morning

Constipation can be annoying, huh?

 

[scaesare]

Let's take a moment to marvel at this:
- Tesla is expanding Fremont's production capacity.
- Building out the Kato Road facility
- Significantly expanding Shanghai
- Building a new facilty in Austin
- Building a new facilty in Berlin

..and
- they are not funding this with a Capital Raise
- they are not funding it with Debt
- they are not drawing down their Cash on the balance sheet.

Tesla is funding all this with cash generated from Operations. Yep, the company that "loses money on every car it sells", generates enough cash each quarter from operations to fund this massive expansion.
Even after funding all these Capital Expenditures, they still have cash left over (Free Cash Flow). In fact, since Q2 2020, they will have generated Free Cash Flow of $4.4B by Q2 2021.

View attachment 682754

One of my favorite earnings call Elon quotes from several years ago was something to the effect of: "We plan to spend an obscene amount of capital."

 

[wtlloyd]

I have to think this is nothing but disastrous for VW. For Europeans that are OK with MIC, it’s a direct ID.4 sales competitor, and when the MIC MYs start showing up and people see how good they are, others will be happy to wait for the MIG version. More ID.4 sales lost.

To my mind, this is the point of introducing MY now - get the vehicle out in public, it will surge demand for the Brandenburg product. I really always expected Tesla to do this when the timing was right.

 

[scubastevo80]

I have to be honest, I'm of two sides regarding all the recent price hikes on Tesla's:

1) As an investor I LOVE the price hikes because it's likely increasing margins and bolstering the bottom line!

2) As someone who supports Tesla's mission to accelerate EV adoption I HATE the price hikes because moving Tesla cars further out of reach of the customers is actively working against the mission.

I think I'd prefer it if the prices of Tesla's were trending downward, not upward.

I think inflation is driving costs up, so they're trying to keep margins steady (as opposed to increasing them), but I'm speculating. My bigger "investor" concern is how they handle any inflation/cost increases attributable to the Cybertruck. I'm surprised they haven't adjusted the pre-order prices of that vehicle as well, at least in line with the 3 and Y. I suspect Tesla will make less per Cybertruck then they anticipated given the sheer number of pre-orders they received prior to this rampant raw material shortage/price increase environment we have now. Perhaps one of the lawyers can jump in, but I think our pre-order agreement locks our price so long as no changes are made which is beneficial to the consumer, not Tesla.

 

[scaesare]

Isn’t that just about the best feature; one pedal driving? I actually get annoyed with myself when I mess up and have to use the brake pedal because it’s so unnecessary.

The only issue is that I sometimes forget my ICE car can’t do that. And I’ve caught myself a number of times at red lights just about to forget it doesn’t have hill hold.

Voice #1: Why is your foot on the brake pedal?
Voice #2: No idea.
Voice #3: Don’t be a jelly roll, wrong car blueberry muffin!!
Voice #1: No need to be so rude.
Voice #3: No need to be so stupid.
Voice #2: So, do I keep the foot on the brake or take it off? I’m so confused.

Your inner voice is a tad sassy.

 

[Drezil]

You're likely right. The prices I took were from the centre bottom of the order page where you can open up a break-down of the cash price, VAT and incentives. Looking again, this seems to be treated differently with some countries disclosing incentives and others not. The countries that don't list any incentives (Belgium, The Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland) have the higher prices. While those that note incentives included (eg France, Italy, Germany ) have the lower prices even if they don't disclose the incentive price.

To make things a little simpler I have redone the table with just the Cash Payment price that Tesla publishes. If anyone wants more detail just go to the Model Y order page, change the country in the top right, then click on the link in the centre bottom of the page to get the cash price break-down.

Country	Model Y LR Price*	Model Y Perf Price*
Belgium	€ 63,980​	€ 70,980​
France	€ 57,990​	€ 66,990​
Germany	€ 57,970​	€ 64,970​
Italy	€ 55,750​	€ 69,970​
Netherlands	€ 65,010​	€ 71,010​
Norway	549,142 kr​	604,142 kr​
Spain	€ 64,980​	€ 70,980​
Switzerland	62,990 CHF​	71,990 CHF​
* Cash Price as Published by Tesla incl Some Incentives, excl fuel savings.

In Germany there is a 2500€-Incentive that the seller has to give (manufacturer-part), so the consumer is elegible to another 5k incentive for cars >40k <60k excl. taxes.
Model 3 is therefore listed with 39990€ (or something) after subtraction of 3k from the manufacturer (but before taxes etc.).

so you can add 2500€ + 19% tax to the MY, yielding 60945€ before subsidies (total: 2.5k before tax by manufacturer, 5k after tax by consumer, total cost to consumer: 52970€).
Still very expensive compared to Model 3, because it has 3k & 6k incentives as the base-model is <40k and "dual motor" or "performance" are just "addons" to the base model

Edit: Did i already say, that we like to make things complicated?

 

[fiveten]

So likely we gonna have the FSD beta and earnings announcements after hours today and over the weekend.
Looking forward to next week.

Death Star and Max Pain be dammed

what earnings announcement is there going to be after hours today?

 

[elasalle]

what earnings announcement is there going to be after hours today?

meant earnings Date, should have been more explicit

 

[Linus_2]

Getting Y from China to Europe makes also good business sense, many people are waiting to see and sit on the car before to place an order.
Having a good back log early in Europe will help Tesla put pressure on German administrations and suppliers to get miscellaneous permits and get the logistic ready.
(you may remember that when the first Y arrives in stores in china, number of orders went through the roof)

 

[fiveten]

meant earnings Date, should have been more explicit

meant earnings Date, should have been more explicit

Dang, yeah you got my hopes up, lol

 

[The Accountant]

Getting Y from China to Europe makes also good business sense, many people are waiting to see and sit on the car before to place an order.
Having a good back log early in Europe will help Tesla put pressure on German administrations and suppliers to get miscellaneous permits and get the logistic ready.
(you may remember that when the first Y arrives in stores in china, number of orders went through the roof)

Are you based in Beijng as your profile states? If so, can you provide any insight about the belief that Tesla demand has been hurt in China from poor publicity (or FUD as we cal it)? From your perspective, what do you see?
Thanks

 

[StealthP3D]

On the other hand, as a shareholder, it puts the "China demand cliff" discussion to rest for me. If demand was significantly down, they would be shipping more of theses to Europe at much more competitive prices.

Really? My impression was that TMC members didn't fall for the "China demand cliff" FUD, not at all. I know I didn't.

 

[goinfraftw]

Has this been shared from the City of San Jose about their Boring Loop project proposal?

https://www.sanjoseca.gov/home/showpublisheddocument/45827/637114866861730000

 

[jbcarioca]

... If demand was significantly down, they would be shipping more of theses to Europe at much more competitive prices.

China demand never was down, so your statement should have been "If China demand WERE significantly down. A statement contrary to fact requires past conditional. Since this is a very common error, even among many native English speakers it is good to correct that use because it is often necessary when describing FUD.
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[Curt Renz]

Headline-Only
Benzinga - 26 minutes ago: EU To Call For New Cars To Be Zero-Emissions From 2035

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Guess the MM's really want $650 today....ah well... guess i'll be productive doing 'work' today

 

[traxila]

My projections show Tesla to be producing 4% of the global auto market by the end of 2023.

Does that match up with what you guys are seeing?

 

[GrandEnigma]

Finally got a viable system design for my Tesla Solar project, with any luck this one hits Q3