Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CHGolferJim]

Put Model 3 on Ships instead of local car carriers and take $25m to the bottom line; it's a no brainer.

Here is my take on June China deliveries.
- They were fantastic. June local sales were solid at 28,138 with April at 11,671 and May at 21,936.
- Telsa is now profitable excluding Reg Credits at 170k in deliveries. There is no need to optimize all deliveries at Qtr end.
- The smart thing to do is sell them where you make the most profit.
- There were 5,017 vehicles exported in June (see yellow below), and likely are in transit and won't count as a sale until Q3.
- You have a choice to either sell the 5k vehicles in China for $41k or sell them abroad for $47k.
- That's $6k more per car selling abroad. Let's deduct $1k for shipping (too high but let's do simple math). That's $5k more profit per car.
- 5,000 cars at $5,000 more per car gets you $25m more in profit. That's the correct business decision.

View attachment 682725

Thank you. Perhaps you’ve said before and I missed it, but what explains the March and April spikes in local deliveries? In addition to the profit maximization from June exports, there could be good strategic reasons to begin sales in Germany/Europe if that’s where the cars went.

 

[Runarbt]

I know, given the current situation raising prices makes good business sense. It's just I know there are people who want to buy Tesla's who will now hold off because the prices are higher than they were before, and I hope at some point in the future prices come back down again to further increase adoption.

I suspect this is what Tesla want. Its their only way of keeping demand in control, along with not advertising. (demand cant be too high, nor too low)

They do not want people having to wait 6-10-12 month when they order an available model.

 

[elasalle]

I know, given the current situation raising prices makes good business sense. It's just I know there are people who want to buy Tesla's who will now hold off because the prices are higher than they were before, and I hope at some point in the future prices come back down again to further increase adoption.

Inflation

 

[Drezil]

MaxPain is 650 (down slightly from 652.50 yesterday). Total OI (expiring today) is 860K contracts.

Time:​	Stock Price​	Max Pain​	Highest Call​	Highest Put​	Call OI​	Put OI​	Total OI​	Put/Call​
07/08/21 7:00 AM​	$626.75​	$652.50​	$700​	$450​	216,377​	620,660​	837,037​	2.8684​
07/09/21 7:00 AM​	$655.46​	$650.00​	$700​	$450​	230,731​	629,718​	860,449​	2.7292​

650 calls/puts are almost equal.
Every 10$ more are ~10k more calls than puts.

MM would probably like to nail 650.

 

[Ohmster]

Table salt. Game changer?

Tesla patent reveals Elon Musk's 'table salt' lithium extraction process that could slash costs — Electrek

Tesla has applied for a new patent that is revealing the lithium extraction process that Elon Musk vaguely described as “using table salt to basically extract lithium from ore” during Tesla’s Battery Day last year.

apple.news

 

[2daMoon]

I think I'm probably the only person on this forum who hates these Plaid launch videos because after each one my lizard brain just wants to buy one more and more and more, like I feel like I'm almost developing a mental illness. I certainly don't need one, I could buy four Model 3s and donate them to my local police department for the price of one Plaid, which would be better for the climate. I feel like a bad person for spending so much on a car, but I can't help it, the heart wants what the heart wants and I could be dead from a brain tumor or cancer in six months, I don't know, nobody knows when their time is up. And it's not like I can't afford it.

I realize a forum of Tesla investors is not the place to seek help, but I have to get this off my chest somewhere.

I do not need a Plaid S but I'm going to buy one anyway even though I feel greedy and selfish about it. And the yoke doesn't help either, I really like the yoke, it's looks futuristic and space-agey.

I tell myself I'm not going to watch anymore Plaid videos, but then they get posted here, and I end up watching them anyway, getting closer and closer to pulling the trigger.

I need a Plaid S support group.

Resistance is futile.

You will be accelerated, um, er, assimilated, by the Plaid collective.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I have to think this is nothing but disastrous for VW. For Europeans that are OK with MIC, it’s a direct ID.4 sales competitor, and when the MIC MYs start showing up and people see how good they are, others will be happy to wait for the MIG version. More ID.4 sales lost.

Depends on the market. In Hungary there is a 20.000 EUR price difference between the LR Model Y and the ID.4 Pro. The Y is 44% more expensive. In Germany the Model Y is 13.000 EUR more expensive.

The Model Y pricing is more in line with BMW iX3 and Mercedes EQC 400 and not competitive with cheaper, but fairly advanced cars like the Hyundai Ioniq 5 and the Kia EV6. On the one hand this is a bit of a disappointment as a customer, and the hope is that once Berlin starts up, prices will come down. On the other hand, as a shareholder, it puts the "China demand cliff" discussion to rest for me. If demand was significantly down, they would be shipping more of theses to Europe at much more competitive prices.

 

[Unpilot]

The Fud we talk about today doesn't have the impact they want.
But way back when they started talking about the Roadster Iwas FUDized. I only listened to the TV at the gym, and the "News" made think Elon was a quack by simply emphasizing that he was going to build a car powered by laptop batteries.
I don't think I took elon/Tesla serious for the next 7 years.
They got me way back then.

Remember you were just a baby ant then.
And look at you now....all grown up.

 

[MC3OZ]

Table salt. Game changer?

Tesla patent reveals Elon Musk's 'table salt' lithium extraction process that could slash costs — Electrek

Tesla has applied for a new patent that is revealing the lithium extraction process that Elon Musk vaguely described as “using table salt to basically extract lithium from ore” during Tesla’s Battery Day last year.

apple.news

More or less as described on battery day, step 1 of a muli-step process.
Seems like salt is cheaper than acid, and step 1 with salt has lower concentrations of additional metals.

In particular acid leeches out alumimum, some lithium is lost in subsequent steps to remove the aluminium. It might only be step 1, but it is a great start. Cheaper and better than acid leeching.

 

[2daMoon]

More or less as described on battery day, step 1 of a muli-step process.
Seems like salt is cheaper than acid, and step 1 with salt has lower concentrations of additional metals.

Those following SMR have seen him on occasion hinting how he believes Elon may have experimented with magic mushrooms.

This patent, and Battery Day, pretty clearly indicate that instead, Elon's dropping acid ... from the Lithium extraction process.

 

[MABMAB]

For those enjoying the acid and shroom conjectures, perhaps read more about Musk, stuff like the earlier biography. My recollection is that the solar/car/space themes were born out of a long dessert car ride with his brother (and I think someone else) going to or returning from burning man. I might have some of my themes intermingled, but that is my recollection. I think it was the Vance book.

 

[The Accountant]

Thank you. Perhaps you’ve said before and I missed it, but what explains the March and April spikes in local deliveries? In addition to the profit maximization from June exports, there could be good strategic reasons to begin sales in Germany/Europe if that’s where the cars went.

The March spike was due to Tesla's Wave philosophy (sending cars on ships early in the Qtr and moving to local deliveries late in the Qtr).
However, I do think logistic challenges are causing deliveries to bounce up and down from month to month and there have been production lines shutdown for upgrades and some news of associates being given a week off in June to compensate for the overtime in May.

In regard to logistics, see this comment from Zach during the Q1 earnings call (my emphasis in bold):
". . . . we continue to work through the instability of the global supply chain, particularly around semiconductors and port capacities, .....We believe that this landscape is improving, but it does remain difficult, and it's an evolving situation.

I also saw news that there were car carrier contstaints which may have impacted local deliveries in June.

There have been concerns about demand but I am not concerned. May and June sales of 22k and 28k, respectively look strong to me.
I remember in late May there was a rumor that the sales orders for Tesla China dropped 50%. When the May number came in strong, the argument was that we would not see the sales drop until June. Then the June numbers came in higher at 28k.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

The move to send MIC Model Y to Europe will pay off handsomely in Q3 and Q4. The margins on those cars are extremely healthy. If you order a Model 3 LR in The Netherlands (built in Fremont) you have to pay €58,000. A Model Y LR (built in China) goes for €65,000.

Tesla says that building a Model Y does not cost more than building a Model 3. And a Model Y built in China will probably cost even less than a Model 3 built in Fremont.

So they will make at least €5,000 to €6,000 more on each Model Y sold in Europe in Q3 and Q4, compared to selling a Model 3. I've adjusted for VAT (between 18% and 21%).

 

[elasalle]

So likely we gonna have the FSD beta and earnings (+date) announcements after hours today and over the weekend.
Looking forward to next week.

Death Star and Max Pain be dammed

 

[Artful Dodger]

The March spike was due to Tesla's Wave philosophy (sending cars on ships early in the Qtr and moving to local deliveries late in the Qtr).
However, I do think logistic challenges are causing deliveries to bounce up and down from month to month and there have been production lines shutdown for upgrades and some news of associates being given a week off in June to compensate for the overtime in May.

In regard to logistics, see this comment from Zach during the Q1 earnings call (my emphasis in bold):
". . . . we continue to work through the instability of the global supply chain, particularly around semiconductors and port capacities, .....We believe that this landscape is improving, but it does remain difficult, and it's an evolving situation.

I also saw news that there were car carrier contstaints which may have impacted local deliveries in June.

There have been concerns about demand but I am not concerned. May and June sales of 22k and 28k, respectively look strong to me.
I remember in late May there was a rumor that the sales orders for Tesla China dropped 50%. When the May number came in strong, the argument was that we would not see the sales drop until June. Then the June numbers came in higher at 28k.

View attachment 682901

Ross Gerber lays down the smak on Ford's Global EV efforts

Ross Gerber on Twitter: "Tesla sold more EVs in China last month… Then Ford will sell in a year, globally. $tsla $f" / Twitter

 

[Discoducky]

More cartel news.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1413390204623335425

And we really think these same forces wouldn’t do everything they could to slow down Giga Berlin? No mercy for German auto. MIC MY full speed ahead.

This direct EU page is worth reading, only 2 minutes, but is so amazing...and by amazing I mean it makes my blood boil.

I've worked with folks from these companies and I just loathe thinking this went on for 5 years.

Press corner

Highlights, press releases and speeches

ec.europa.eu

"Daimler was not fined, as it revealed the existence of the cartel to the Commission. All parties acknowledged their involvement in the cartel and agreed to settle the case."

"During these meetings, and for over five years, the car manufacturers colluded to avoid competition on cleaning better than what is required by law despite the relevant technology being available."

 

[UncaNed]

I think I'm probably the only person on this forum who hates these Plaid launch videos because after each one my lizard brain just wants to buy one more and more and more, like I feel like I'm almost developing a mental illness. I certainly don't need one, I could buy four Model 3s and donate them to my local police department for the price of one Plaid, which would be better for the climate. I feel like a bad person for spending so much on a car, but I can't help it, the heart wants what the heart wants and I could be dead from a brain tumor or cancer in six months, I don't know, nobody knows when their time is up. And it's not like I can't afford it.

I realize a forum of Tesla investors is not the place to seek help, but I have to get this off my chest somewhere.

I do not need a Plaid S but I'm going to buy one anyway even though I feel greedy and selfish about it. And the yoke doesn't help either, I really like the yoke, it's looks futuristic and space-agey.

I tell myself I'm not going to watch anymore Plaid videos, but then they get posted here, and I end up watching them anyway, getting closer and closer to pulling the trigger.

I need a Plaid S support group.

Exactly! So buy one, play with it and let your friends try it, then trade it in after a year or so.

I knew I could count on you guys to help me

That's what we're here for!

 

[Chenkers]

With such big price differences between EU countries that have comparable VAT tariffs I’m wondering if these are actually the prices AFTER incentives.

You're likely right. The prices I took were from the centre bottom of the order page where you can open up a break-down of the cash price, VAT and incentives. Looking again, this seems to be treated differently with some countries disclosing incentives and others not. The countries that don't list any incentives (Belgium, The Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland) have the higher prices. While those that note incentives included (eg France, Italy, Germany ) have the lower prices even if they don't disclose the incentive price.

To make things a little simpler I have redone the table with just the Cash Payment price that Tesla publishes. If anyone wants more detail just go to the Model Y order page, change the country in the top right, then click on the link in the centre bottom of the page to get the cash price break-down.

Country	Model Y LR Price*	Model Y Perf Price*
Belgium	€ 63,980​	€ 70,980​
France	€ 57,990​	€ 66,990​
Germany	€ 57,970​	€ 64,970​
Italy	€ 55,750​	€ 69,970​
Netherlands	€ 65,010​	€ 71,010​
Norway	549,142 kr​	604,142 kr​
Spain	€ 64,980​	€ 70,980​
Switzerland	62,990 CHF​	71,990 CHF​
* Cash Price as Published by Tesla incl Some Incentives, excl fuel savings.

 

[pokpteyehgo]

I think I'm probably the only person on this forum who hates these Plaid launch videos because after each one my lizard brain just wants to buy one more and more and more, like I feel like I'm almost developing a mental illness. I certainly don't need one, I could buy four Model 3s and donate them to my local police department for the price of one Plaid, which would be better for the climate. I feel like a bad person for spending so much on a car, but I can't help it, the heart wants what the heart wants and I could be dead from a brain tumor or cancer in six months, I don't know, nobody knows when their time is up. And it's not like I can't afford it.

I realize a forum of Tesla investors is not the place to seek help, but I have to get this off my chest somewhere.

I do not need a Plaid S but I'm going to buy one anyway even though I feel greedy and selfish about it. And the yoke doesn't help either, I really like the yoke, it's looks futuristic and space-agey.

I tell myself I'm not going to watch anymore Plaid videos, but then they get posted here, and I end up watching them anyway, getting closer and closer to pulling the trigger.

I need a Plaid S support group.

you are right that instead of 1 plaid, you can get 4 model 3s but instead of donating them to police department, consider starting a commute subscription service. monthly subscription for people living in the suburbs to drop them to office and back home. this would save a LOT of emissions.

if you don't want to handle the logistics, you could hire a manager for the business. drivers will need to be hired anyway.

and IMHO it will also be helpful for you as a person, because you will be helping people.

 

[Unpilot]

Really...every morning