Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

Well, technically, the new roadster is delayed and it will have an options package that includes rockets. So, Tesla's first rocket launch is upcoming.

I really think Elon should play nice and invite Neil Boudette, Russ Mitchell, Lora Kolodny, and Linette Lopez on a one way Falcon 9 launch into orbit.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Ahead of Tesla results, Cathie Wood says Wall Street's valuing it all wrong

Our call of the day comes as investors wait for electric-vehicle giant Tesla to report later. Wall Street doesn't get it, says ARK's Cathie Wood.

www.marketwatch.com

“We believe the reason there is such a big inefficiency in Tesla’s valuation is the short-term time horizon of analysts and the wrong analysts following it,” said Wood, who explained that Tesla is a multifaceted technology company, but being covered by Wall Street auto analysts.

 

[juanmedina]

So if a Class A truck driver earns $30 / hr, can Tesla charge FSD for Semi customers at about that rate..?

Assuming a 16-hr operation day, 365 a year, would be $175,200 a year. Per semi. Just on FSD.

So if I buy a Tesla semi I can retire ?

 

[jbcarioca]

this x1000.

this forum has sadly turned into a poor source of information over the last year and a half or so, constantly insisting that Elon is sandbagging everything under the sun from Model S refresh deliveries, to Berlin production start date, to Plaid range, to 4680 production, to Semi production, and much more -- all of which turned out to be wrong. You will have a much better track record simply taking Elon at his word (and even better if you take his timelines with a grain of salt).

Too many of you have become openly hostile to any posts that aren't outright pie-in-the-sky cheerleading, and too many of you are operating from the inherent assumption that Elon can fundamentally never be wrong about anything. It's intellectually lazy, unhealthy, and and irresponsible form of investing.

Seek knowledge, not reassurance.

let the downvotes roll.

In my very humble opinion, Elon does make numerous mistakes. Unlike most CEOs and most people, he readily admits his screwups. We all know that the Refresh Model S and X have been a mess, though we have not all the details about what. The same thing happened with Model S and Elon has elaborated on that one quite eloquently. If some fo us recall ancient stories there were motors, batteries, battery shields and other things wrong in 2012-2014.

The most bullish of us are acutely aware of the opportunities for problems. Nobody I know is denying that.
Some do tend to have 'rose colored spectacles'.
Although I 'liked' your post that was primarily because you pointed out some errors. Sadly, you chose to generalize that as if all of this is denied or not understood and we're all adolescents in the shoes of 'puppy love'. That is NOT a valid criticism.

Finally, with all those production issues, customer service issues, shortages of employees and so on some of us still fully expect Tesla to continue to thrive and out perform. Any of us who've known and/or followed Elon Musk since PayPal days know he makes plentiful mistakes and corrects them as quickly as he can.Do you know another executive who does that? Elon Musk absorbs cops information and quickly finds the important parts, then deals with it. Do you know anybody else who does that as well?

In the end I suspect you are failing to understand the self-curing part of all this confusion. Indeed some of us are too optimistic. What is wrong with that when so many of us are quite ready to correct other people's mistakes and induce greater realism. Personally, as a frequent recipient of such corrections, I appreciate them.
Hopefully, I share some small part of Elon's ability to distinguish between FUD and constructive criticism. That..is not easy.

 

[dgodfrey]

Any one is having issue with their trading platform? E-trade is not displaying options prices correctly they are stuck and they don't change.

My E-trade has been acting up too. Mine is showing TSLA up about 1 ½%-2% the day before a blowout earnings report and I know that can't be right.

 

[Andy O]

Isn't this only the case when the bottleneck are the materials however?

In the case with current cells, I believe it's the manufacturing capacity (i.e.- the machine lines that make them) that is the bottleneck, Hence every cell going into either an automotive or stationary storage application is a cell that the other application is deprived of.

Yes, the bottleneck right now is the manufacturing capacity, but (and I am no expert) there might be alternative easily ramped methods for manufacturing stationary storage batteries. Electric cells don't need to be spiral coils of scarce materials with a very high reliability.

 

[jbcarioca]

I get the feeling you’re awfully sensitive when people don’t agree with you.

1. This is a fan club.
2. This is also the investor thread of said fan club where for years we have discussed in minute detail all aspects of Tesla. It’s why many of us are now monetarily well off. Clearly the investment thread has worked despite your attempt at belittling it and its participants.
3. Don’t be the ‘hindsight’ guy who neglects to remember the situations and circumstances surrounding decisions made years ago.
4. Nobody has ever said mistakes haven’t been made, but saying that something might have been a screw up after the fact doesn’t make you some investment prophet nor add to investment decisions going forward, especially when you’ve just done #3 and entirely mislabeled a decision.
5. Consider for a moment you’ve only been here for 3 years and perhaps might not possess the information of the years prior to your joining - ironically the years in which Tesla was making decisions about Gigafactory #1.
6. I’ve been all in Tesla/TSLA since 2012. I’m aware of absolutely everything of public record and while GigaNevada hasn’t turned out the way Tesla initially envisioned it, it wasn’t a screw up.
7. Mistakes and fails are not ‘negatives’ to Tesla/any Elon company. ‘Fail as fast as you can’ is in fact a very good strategy in this case.

GigaNevada has been instrumental in Tesla’s success. It’s a testing ground and its existence has helped model future factories; locations, layouts, efficiencies, increased vertical integration. partnerships, etc…

It’s been a huge success regardless of not reaching its original intended ‘dream’.

I wish there were a stronger statement than just 'Love' or 'Informative' for this post.
There are common themes among those of us who have been investors in Elon enterprises since 2010 or before:
-we often disagree with each other but almost always explain why,
-we often find fault with some aspects of Tesla and executives, including Elon Musk,
-we express irritation and anguish over recurrent customer treatment (on innumerable issues)',
-we all know that our investments in Tesla have been either the most successful one of the most successful investments we've ever made,
- of course, we love our Tesla products almost without exception.

For me personally, the majority of my 'disagrees' come from this camp. For that matter, perhaps more of the positive ones too.
That is in large part why I pay close attention to such people. They know this company, its products, its finances, its strengths and its weaknesses.
Nearly all of us sound like 'fans' because we are. That does not make us unobservant of error. On the contrary, such people tend to see the warts also.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

AFAIK, all Model Y product is for Left hand Drive markets like USA, China etc. There is zero Right Hand Drive production thus far evident.

...

Agree with the rest of your post but I believe Model Ys for Hong Kong are RHD

 

[Buckminster]

Traditional guidelines for posting tonight:

1. If in doubt, don't post
2. Add value - don't post SP or quotes from the presentation
3. Group your points together into bigger posts
4. Don't post until you have caught up and confirmed it hasn't already been posted
5. No fake links
6. No fake numbers

 

[goinfraftw]

...but but what about GIFs?!

 

[aronth5]

How on earth is a theoretical 'model 2' *upcoming*. There has been zero confirmation that tesla is even designing such a car.

Sure no confirmation, just rumors. Mostly related to the China design team.
Tesla Is Reportedly Working on $25,000 Hatch
Everything You Need To Know About The $25,000 Tesla Model 2
The $25,000 Tesla Model 2 Might Not Be As Mythical As It Seems @ Top Speed

 

[dhanson865]

Would a fee per mile work well in this situation?

From a technical standpoint I'm sure Tesla could implement time or mileage based fees for FSD on a Semi.

From a billing standpoint the more increments they have to track the messier it becomes.

If you don't go flat fee I'm sure by the mile is a better metric than time. No customer wants to pay for FSD by the hour while a truck is in bumper to bumper traffic (whether that is an LA freeway in rush-hour or a mountain pass restricted to one lane for a rock slide or a highway in the Midwest that just happens to have a multicar pileup).

I was suggesting a flat fee monthly format to keep it simple and to match the existing FSD subscription model.

But Tesla isn't always about keeping it simple, I'm just saying I would.

Then it comes down to how much do you charge for FSD on a Semi?

 

[jbcarioca]

... find it seriously difficult to think that cell supply growth will much outstrip vehicle growth, so that the inflexion point for stationary storage growth could occur earlier than the very late 2020s. I can imagine temporarily localised cell oversupply that would of course be mopped up immediately in stationary, but I find it hard to envisage sustained oversupply. If it were sustained then the vehicle assembly growth would simply be increased to absorb it...

.

You are certainly correct, if the technological status quo continues in a linear fashion. That may happen. However, I keep reading technical papers that promise substantial advantages in one technology or another. Those rarely mature instantly, of course. However, the world is nearing obsession renewable energy solutions and energy storage solutions.

Given that much of the hydropower is diminishing, drastic need for clean water is driving innovation and so on; there is such massive effort that it is resembling a dozen Manhattan projects.

I think there are better than even odds that before 2025 there will be unprecedented technological advances in several of these areas. That will somehow, I believe, produce scalable energy storage solutions that will displace the li-ion component, thus allowing more for BEVs and other products. Those cells will also have more scalability and lower prices than they do now. These are all happening now.

Thus, probably no inlexion point on this basis.
Otherwise the world is rushing towards disaster so it needs all the help it can get.

 

[mickificki]

...but but what about GIFs?!

I gotta post the Ron Paul "It's Happening!" gif...

 

[engle]

2021 Q2 It will be a blow-out quarter! My white 2018 Q3 Model 3 Dual Motor received a special "technical indicator" on Saturday when someone driving a baby white 2021 Q2 Model 3 with < 1,000 miles ran a red light at speed and slammed into my 2018 Q3 2-year-old just 3.5 miles from their birthplace.

2021 White Tesla Model 3 Runs Red Light Hits My 2018 White Model 3 in Fremont, CA - No Injuries

I have to wait 31 days for Tesla Body Shop repairs in San Jose. I absolutely do not want to rent a gas ICE car even though my USAA insurance will pay for a "large SUV". Since the Model 3 goes to my son when he finishes his UCLA MSCS in 2022, one of my options is to buy a new Model Y since X, CT, & R2 are not available yet. However, for Fremont Delivery orders, I cannot get one until November! Definitely demand-constrained and it will be a blowout quarter. $BTC is irrelevant since it will be added/subtracted out of the numbers. All strapped in to enjoy the ride! [*]

After 2021 Q2 is announced, watch how $TSLA P/E ratio will decrease again. We are growing into our P/E ratio. That is a very good thing, since it will allow $TSLA to climb Q-by-Q into the 700's, 800's, 900's, etc. with continued unit sales growth and financial performance. Baring a macro event, I do not expect we will ever trade under $500 again.

[*] Like many others, I expect it will be another Wall Street "buy the rumors then sell the news". My dear wife is glued to her chair watching Fidelity Active Trader Pro on 75" and 65" LCDs hoping to take advantage of the aftermarket where the Robinhood-types cannot trade. We love Roth IRAs!

 

[StealthP3D]

They’ll sell the 500 or however many they produce this year. Those cars will be measured and weighed. They better be impeccable and worth every penny. They may not be afforded a second chance if they bung it up.

One thing I'm confident of:

Lucid Air advertisements will be of impeccable sophistication and elegance.

This is very good news for Tesla because it means around 500 of the most pretentious Tesla douchebags will soon be associated with Lucid and Tesla can go onto becoming "the peoples car". But the new Lucid Air owners will resist self-adopting identities as "Air heads" while insisting they actually look forward to taking their cars in for fixes because they are treated like royalty by a company who understands how to keep the brand exclusive. Sooo much better than Tesla!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Watch & Listen To Tesla Shareholder Conference Call Live Here - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! As always, we are putting together a thorough livestream video for the second quarter (Q2) Tesla shareholder call later today. You can find it embedded YouTube video below (or click here) and set a ...

cleantechnica.com

 

[The Accountant]

So what time do we expect numbers to come out?

Here are the past times:

Q1 2020 - 4:11 EST
Q2 2020 - 4:17 EST
Q3 2020 - 4:07 EST
Q4 2020 - 4:07 EST
Q1 2021 - 4:05 EST

 

[MXWing]

I really think Elon should play nice and invite Neil Boudette, Russ Mitchell, Lora Kolodny, and Linette Lopez on a one way Falcon 9 launch into orbit.

Don't forget Fred, Chanos, Johnson, Spiegel, etc

Were gonna need a Falcon Heavy.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Apologies if this was posted and i just missed it but.....

Tesla (TSLA) IR Sent an E-Mail on Friday Suggesting a Q2 'Beat'

On Friday and ahead of today's earnings report after the close, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) IR Director, Martin Viecha, sent out an email with "company compiled Q2-2021 and FY2021...

www.streetinsider.com

And of course they picked Gordo to give his 0.02: