Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[capster]

Well, technically, the new roadster is delayed and it will have an options package that includes rockets. So, Tesla's first rocket launch is upcoming.

Well, actually and if we are to split hairs, the roadster would not best be called a "launched rocket." Rather, it would be a "rocket assisted car." You could also go with "rocket launched car" or even "rocketed car."

All are ambiguous enough that they could also mean a car that had been launched on top of a rocket as into space. When will that happen?

Oh wait…

 

[jbcarioca]

Yep, his model and predictions are great and roughly match my own in many ways, EXCEPT if you look at his profit margins going forward he predicts they will actually increase over the next five years. That's where I feel people are being too optimistic, as I think Tesla will purposefully lower margins to bring prices lower and keep demand high as production ramps into overdrive.

If the Model Y stays priced as high as it is today it will never sell as numerously as the Toyota Corolla does today, I really think Tesla will lower prices and margins over time. It's just what I'm expecting to see, doesn't mean I'm right.

Sadly, you're missing the point Elon made. He did not say that the Model S3XY were too expensive. He said "Tesla" vehicles are too expensive. As production processes change and new technologies evolve (e.g. Gigapress) new vehicles can be profitably made that will be cheaper. Still, margins on existing vehicles are rising while featuresand capabilities are increasing. One example: My 2014 P85D hd MSRP $6500 less than my 2021 Plaid. That is an inflation-adjusted nearly identical price, while no sane person will miss how much better the 2021 is in all respects, except for free Supercharging.

For cheaper choices there will be Cybertruck, China and German designed vehicles, and others coming, perhaps even in India.

What will NOT happen is lower Tesla margins any time in the forseeable future. OTOH, as new factories open and logistics improves Tesla cash flow will grow much more than profits. @The Accountant and others can explain all that better than can I do it.

 

[Buckminster]

I sense a little disharmony amongst the family. This is called pre-emptive F.U. money. I would alternatively recommend becoming pre-emptively pajama rich.
Like Jack:

 

[AimStellar]

 

[jbcarioca]

Regarding Tesla wanting to maximize profit or not--In todays edition of "Why do people not believe what Elon said" we visit the Q2 2020 ER call

The problem is the tendency to use superlatives in term of financial objectives. Reading the Tesla mission statement will help. Tesla is "maximizing" neither profits, cash flow nor sales. Tesla is trying to "maximize" the planet Earth's transition to renewable energy. All the rest are means to that end.

 

[Nocturnal]

Now that's the TSLA we know and love.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Toyota is quietly pushing Congress to slow the shift to electric vehicles

Toyota used to lead in fuel economy standards.

www.theverge.com

TL: DR: Legacy OEM's are throwing everything including the kitchen sink to slow EV adoption because they have finally realized they cannot catch up

 

[dl003]

So what time do we expect numbers to come out?

Within 2 weeks.

 

[Johan]

You heard it here first, from oilprice.com (reprinted by zerohedge).

The World Will Run Out Of EV Batteries By 2025 | OilPrice.com

The world is going all-in on the electric vehicle revolution, but there are a number of challenges that could stop the EV boom dead in its tracks

oilprice.com

Don't worry. The best engineers at Exxon, Aramco and Shell are working on new methods of digging batteries out of the depths of the oceans under the polar ice caps.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Now that's the TSLA we know and love.

The Tesla we know and love would be up 25, then down 30, then up 40, then down 20, then up 25. All within a couple hours.

 

[ZachF]

View attachment 688343

Toyota is quietly pushing Congress to slow the shift to electric vehicles

Toyota used to lead in fuel economy standards.

www.theverge.com

TL: DR: Legacy OEM's are throwing everything including the kitchen sink to slow EV adoption because they have finally realized they cannot catch up

Toyota = Nokia 2006

 

[Krugerrand]

Peter Rawlinson this morning on CNBC: Starting production with $169K Lucid Dream [targeting a whopping 500 models this year]. $77,400 Lucid Air not available until late next year [who wants to place bets that they will be lucky to get it out before 2023].

https://twitter.com/x/status/1419635580032495623

How many thousands of new MS LR will be delivered by then (not to mention Plaids)?

When will Wall Street finally realize that Tesla has no competition?

They’ll sell the 500 or however many they produce this year. Those cars will be measured and weighed. They better be impeccable and worth every penny. They may not be afforded a second chance if they bung it up.

 

[Nocturnal]

The Tesla we know and love would be up 25, then down 30, then up 40, then down 20, then up 25. All within a couple hours.

Now we have the stability of the spoon though. lol

 

[InTheShadows]

The Tesla we know and love would be up 25, then down 30, then up 40, then down 20, then up 25. All within a couple hours.

Ugh, you had to curse the momentum.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Megapack FTW

https://twitter.com/x/status/1419701218671308807

 

[Unpilot]

I am a little excited about this afternoon's action.
But really we need 10 full GLJ's or at least a full eyebrow lift.

Then I will be excited.

 

[jw934]

Ross Gerber interview quotes on Tesla with Yahoo Finance:

Q: What will you be looking for in the earning call?

A:
I come to not care about the quarterly numbers.
What I care about is will happen in Austin with the Cybertruck and the semi.
I care about is FSD.
We know the production is good and the demand is off the chart.
A question is what is happening with the Model S with them on again and off again.
I have the Plaid and it is best car ever created.
I highly recommend Tesla as a long term investment.
What really matters is how the long term growth is going instead of how was the last quarter.

Q When will Tesla start to accept bitcoin again for payment?
A:
Two last home purchases in Laguna Beach where I am in now were bought using bitcoin.
As an eco-system for commerce, Tesla has been an innovator there.
I assume going to we are going to see this among pretty much all companies
as they begin to accept bitcoin for payment
This is the beginning to the end of the traditional banking.
I am super bullish on Tesla and Bitcoin, and them together.

Tesla starts halfway in the interview. First half is on bitcoin,

https://twitter.com/x/status/1419678324876529665

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I am a little excited about this afternoon's action.
But really we need 10 full GLJ's or at least a full eyebrow lift.

Then I will be excited.

Today's rise in the SP has been counter the Macro's and it's being done on still relatively low volume.......which makes me hopeful that there's still a ton of money sitting on the sidelines waiting to jump in.

I'm really hoping we get a surprise on the earnings such as a much bigger ramp in Energy than expected along with margins flipping back to positive in a big way.

 

[ZachF]

Oh, and happy TSLA christmas everyone!

Megapack FTW

https://twitter.com/x/status/1419701218671308807

Wait until battery manufacturing costs drop to $35/KWh and Tesla is building megapacks on a production line making several hundred per day.

 

[SunCatcher]

View attachment 688343

Toyota is quietly pushing Congress to slow the shift to electric vehicles

Toyota used to lead in fuel economy standards.

www.theverge.com

TL: DR: Legacy OEM's are throwing everything including the kitchen sink to slow EV adoption because they have finally realized they cannot catch up

I'm not sure they need help slowing the shift to electric vehicles; they seem to be doing fine on their own.