Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZsoZso]

You heard it here first, from oilprice.com (reprinted by zerohedge).

The World Will Run Out Of EV Batteries By 2025 | OilPrice.com

The world is going all-in on the electric vehicle revolution, but there are a number of challenges that could stop the EV boom dead in its tracks

oilprice.com

ooohhhh, welcome to Peak-Battery ! Silly tree huggers did not think this through, haha.
It is a good thing that oil is infinite "we can always find more deposits if the price is right", it is just a price-quantity equilibrum... yeah right!

/s

 

[mltv]

Did Cramer just pump the competition?

 

[Curt Renz]

Megapack FTW

https://twitter.com/x/status/1419701218671308807

Electrek - this morning: Tesla reveals Megapack prices: starts at $1 million

Excerpt:

It reveals a price of $1,235,890 for a single Tesla Megapack, but that’s not the usual use case for the product.

Tesla actually uses a default quantity of 10 Megapacks in the configurator.

With 10 Megapacks, Tesla lists a price of $9,999,290, which results in a price per kWh of $327.87.

However, that’s not an accurate representation of Tesla’s battery costs since it also includes 7.6 MW of power inverters and installation.

Tesla describes the installation process of the Megapack:

1. Project design (including electrical and civil)
2. Project permitting (ministerial only)
3. Project construction (including electrical up to 480V, grading and foundations, mv transformer as applicable)
4. Project commissioning
5. Backup capability for critical loads

The price per kWh goes down as you order more Megapacks. 100 Megapacks brings the cost down to around $280 per kWh.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Imagine pulling into a super charger and having a Li battery installed while charging up.

Better yet, imagine losing 12v power while Supercharging... /s

 

[EVDRVN]

0-80 in 3 seconds- LOL So Plaid is now dog slow.

 

[H Mak]

To get everyone in the mood, this table which I've posted before, has been updated for Q2. It shows the quarterly progression of Tesla worldwide deliveries. Its not mine, its from Statista.

 

[scaesare]

It's a computer game. Elon is a gamer. He was big on Quake long ago, has played Cyberpunk, etc.

Either you don't get jokes, or I assume them to be where they weren't intended....

 

[scaesare]

No. There is a weak connection between the two things because they use conceptually different types of batteries. Battery weight, energy density, and power density are important for vehicles but not for stationary storage. Stationary storage batteries can be built without taking physical resources away from car batteries.

Isn't this only the case when the bottleneck are the materials however?

In the case with current cells, I believe it's the manufacturing capacity (i.e.- the machine lines that make them) that is the bottleneck, Hence every cell going into either an automotive or stationary storage application is a cell that the other application is deprived of.

 

[Paracelsus]

The Tesla we know and love would be up 25, then down 30, then up 40, then down 20, then up 25. All within a couple hours.

Ahhh yes, but then we are also only a few short hours away from Pure Pandemonium - those precious few short minutes between the closing bell and the release of the earnings report when TSLA makes those swings on steroids. Always my very favorite TSLA moments, whether it is up or down. Don't blink or you will miss it! The price change swing is 40 points before I can set my beer back down.

Too bad Bob Ueker couldn't be around to provide the play by play for TSLA after hours. He made Pure Pandemonium a household word. And he also made some great commercials, including this one where he metaphorically plays 'analyst' Gordon Johnson after the 2021 Tesla season when there is nobody left that will offer Gordon a good seat:

 

[gabeincal]

So if a Class A truck driver earns $30 / hr, can Tesla charge FSD for Semi customers at about that rate..?

Assuming a 16-hr operation day, 365 a year, would be $175,200 a year. Per semi. Just on FSD.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Nothing to see here.

Your 2 cents worth?

 

[Mengy]

To get everyone in the mood, this table which I've posted before, has been updated for Q2. It shows the quarterly progression of Tesla worldwide deliveries. Its not mine, its from Statista.

View attachment 688361

This chart is glorious. Imagine how it's going to look by the end of this year!

 

[dww12]

So if a Class A truck driver earns $30 / hr, can Tesla charge FSD for Semi customers at about that rate..?

Assuming a 16-hr operation day, 365 a year, would be $175,200 a year. Per semi. Just on FSD.

For the nearer term can a driver drive more than 10hr/day if FSD is doing part of it?

 

[dhanson865]

So if a Class A truck driver earns $30 / hr, can Tesla charge FSD for Semi customers at about that rate..?

Assuming a 16-hr operation day, 365 a year, would be $175,200 a year. Per semi. Just on FSD.

I doubt Tesla wants to get into hourly charges. How about monthly fees (unlimited miles and hours)

Just charge more for Semi than you do for the cars. Say something like $4200 per month (about 1/3 of your yearly number).

That'd leave out the small time operators though, anyone doing low mileage / low hours would have to drive manually (couldn't afford FSD) on a monthly plan that expensive.

How about $1000 a month? Still 5x the cost of FSD subscription on a car but much more inclusive for trucks that aren't moving 16/7/365.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

So if a Class A truck driver earns $30 / hr, can Tesla charge FSD for Semi customers at about that rate..?

Assuming a 16-hr operation day, 365 a year, would be $175,200 a year. Per semi. Just on FSD.

I need a spreadsheet with these numbers and forecasted revenue through 2030. Please and thank you

 

[Krugerrand]

Electrek - this morning: Tesla reveals Megapack prices: starts at $1 million

Excerpt:

It reveals a price of $1,235,890 for a single Tesla Megapack, but that’s not the usual use case for the product.

Tesla actually uses a default quantity of 10 Megapacks in the configurator.

With 10 Megapacks, Tesla lists a price of $9,999,290, which results in a price per kWh of $327.87.

However, that’s not an accurate representation of Tesla’s battery costs since it also includes 7.6 MW of power inverters and installation.

Tesla describes the installation process of the Megapack:

1. Project design (including electrical and civil)
2. Project permitting (ministerial only)
3. Project construction (including electrical up to 480V, grading and foundations, mv transformer as applicable)
4. Project commissioning
5. Backup capability for critical loads

The price per kWh goes down as you order more Megapacks. 100 Megapacks brings the cost down to around $280 per kWh.

*calculates the viability of building a mountain utility*

 

[H Mak]

This chart is glorious. Imagine how it's going to look by the end of this year!

They're gonna need a bigger scale

 

[jerry33]

The problem is the tendency to use superlatives in term of financial objectives. Reading the Tesla mission statement will help. Tesla is "maximizing" neither profits, cash flow nor sales. Tesla is trying to "maximize" the planet Earth's transition to renewable energy. All the rest are means to that end.

The problem is that outside of a few people here, no one either believes it (jaded with corporate greenwashing and advertising that isn't all that truthful) or doesn't want to believe it (oil and legacy car).

 

[Drumheller]

I doubt Tesla wants to get into hourly charges. How about monthly fees (unlimited miles and hours)

Just charge more for Semi than you do for the cars. Say something like $4200 per month (about 1/3 of your yearly number).

That'd leave out the small time operators though, anyone doing low mileage / low hours would have to drive manually (couldn't afford FSD) on a monthly plan that expensive.

How about $1000 a month? Still 5x the cost of FSD subscription on a car but much more inclusive for trucks that aren't moving 16/7/365.

Would a fee per mile work well in this situation?

 

[jbcarioca]

How on earth is a theoretical 'model 2' *upcoming*. There has been zero confirmation that tesla is even designing such a car. And even if they suddenly showed one off tonight, I'd expect to wait until 2024-2025 to get one, because we are STILL waiting for
roadster
semi
cybertruck
And thats without an actual proper global ramp for the 3 and Y. Hardly any sales in Africa/India, and no model Y yet in left-hand-drive countries at all. Plus powerwall backlog is huge, and no 4680s or structural pack yet.

There is tendency among posters here to race way ahead of teslas actual implementation. I would not be surprised to see a traditional automaker come in and take the low end of the marker from tesla unless things speed up a lot.

MAYBE if we see volume production of the semi and cybertruck, and production of the roadster in 2022, then we *might* see a 2023 model 2 but I doubt it. Lets not forget that the roadster was described as the '2020 roadster'.

AFAIK, all Model Y product is for Left hand Drive markets like USA, China etc. There is zero Right Hand Drive production thus far evident.

Whether cell, semiconductor, Gigpress or an of a number fo other factors it does seem that Tesla is supply limited in every market, every model. With demand rapidly rising for every Tesla product they're undoubtably using every available technique to increase vehicle supply.

We may hear something specific tonight but I'll be surprised if what we hear adds substantially to what we already know.

There is also a labor shortage exacerbated by mandatory overtime and heavy workloads everywhere for everything. We should not disregard that obvious constraint.