Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[BornToFly]

Not really reassuring when Elon said there was only two US cars companies that never went bankrupt.
The odds are not really good in the future but the party goes on for now.

Tesla is well past the hump and in no danger of going BR anymore. You are correct that other companies like Lucid and Rivian face a scary future.

 

[Singuy]

He's going the Bezo's route of not wanting to waste time on these earnings calls.

Probably why the SP dipped, because people are afraid he might take the Bezo's route too much ...like resigning.

 

[geometro]

Amazing quarter, but the market (at least AH) isn't impressed... annoying!

 

[Krugerrand]

Soooo .......your saying there is a demand problem?

Just think about it for a second. Mega sold out until the end of NEXT year. Powerwall demand and availability a significant mismatch. Can't make enough batteries between themselves and all their suppliers for any of their products. Can't get the supply chain to keep up now, partly due to Covid, but in the meantime they need every growing supplies.

In my perfect world, Tesla gets first dibs on every bit of raw material and every product and every smart human because they're doing the most with the least over every other company in the world.

I do not have enough chairs.

 

[Unpilot]

Think the second paragraph should have been the headline...

You would think after awhile the numbness would kick in. But I still get a little peeved at the slant in just about every Tesla news article.

Tesla cures cancer!
Headline would read "Tesla puts Doctor' out of work."

 

[Paracelsus]

This is a very good post. And I agree with everything about it except the timeline. Respectfully, I believe it will happen much sooner, and it will be much more profitable than today’s backwards-looking comparisons can forecast for us. Personally I would cut your timeline in half - from 2030 to 2025. Why? Because both ends of the Supply Chain have already put the world on notice and we are already ramping up the S curve.

How do we know that the Installation Side of the supply chain is demanding more product from TE? Demand is far greater than the whispers of ‘supply-limited’ stories we see drowned out by mainstream FUD. TE has orders for every single product it can make for years to come. For example, we are working with one of the largest solar and storage companies in the nation so that we can hopefully have access to Tesla products in an area where electricity is less expensive than Tesla’s target install areas. And this company actually has a standing order with Tesla Energy with very simple language. It’s standing order states that it will buy every single Powerwall that Tesla can produce. The order is that simple. Every single one. And this company is simply one of many banging at the door for every TE storage product from Powerwalls to Megapacks. This emphasizes just how horrible the Old Paradigm competing with Tesla must feel about their inability to change with the times. The line for TE products is as far as the eye can see.

And how do we know the Manufacturing Side of the Supply Chain has been put on notice that ‘He who grows fastest wins’? Simple. Elon has already done that with a choice of words at Battery Day that IMO were meant to strike fear in the hearts of any doubters or anyone hoping Tesla will fail, while putting the biggest carrot on a stick possible for manufacturers in a live event broadcast globally when he said Tesla will buy every battery that manufacturers can deliver. Every single battery. There was no mixing of words there. If you build it we will buy it. In essence this was a standing order to the world for batteries for TE and TM products. And the audience was global.

Thus my reasoning for accelerating your timeline from 2030 to 2025 is that Tesla isn’t going this route alone now. Manufacturers from around the world are scrambling to be able to supply TE with batteries so that Installers around the world have access to the TE storage solutions - many of which are already ordered. TE is the only point through which every dollar shall pass. TE has already accomplished what people said it couldn’t, and it already owns both ends of the global supply chain as a result IMO.

The ramp will happen much sooner than we think, and TE will be valued higher than TM much sooner than we think. And most analysts still think Tesla is just a car company.....

Can I double-down now on my post from this morning regarding TE, battery manufacturers, installers, and the Supply Chain?

 

[madodel]

Gene Munster on Bloomberg now giving the real low down on 2Q ER. Focusing on all the things everyone else is ignoring.

 

[vwman111]

TSLA After-Hours Quotes Live​

Data last updated Jul 26, 2021 06:37 PM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$666.99 +9.37 (+1.42%)
After-Hours Volume	3,192,098
After-Hours High	$698.1203 (05:10:31 PM)
After-Hours Low	$639.8542 (05:04:57 PM)

@Artful Dodger

AH High may have been a glitch, i'm not seeing it on the charts

 

[replicant]

Probably why the SP dipped, because people are afraid he might take the Bezo's route too much ...like resigning.

Elon is not a tourist.

 

[ZeApelido]

Did he say 1 million Powerwalls for next year?

 

[jkirkwood001]

Almost all of the other auto OEMs have revenue growth somewhere between negative and less-than-inflation.

Worth seeing a table of data on that one, @ZachF . Not doubting you, would just like to see the gaps, and which OEMs are faring worst compared to Tesla.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Did he say 1 million Powerwalls for next year?

That's about two per minute. 24/7, all year.

Also, pretty close to the number of cars.

 

[Nocturnal]

I think this pretty much summarizes the situation layed out by this report...

View attachment 688426

That looks familiar.

 

[insaneoctane]

BATTERIES, BATTERIES, BATTERIES. It must be frustrating to lead a company with so much potential business choked by your inability to get/fab cells. I'm glad they are making progress with the 4680s and that there is a ~50% chance that the 100GWh capacity in place in 2022 is able to deliver. It continues to be all about the batteries.
(and chips now, too)

 

[Cosmacelf]

"Drew correct me if I'm wrong...."

That was subtle but speaks volumes.

What do you think it meant?

 

[madodel]

CEO of Lucid just said chips aren't a problem as they bought all 500 chips in advance. Talking about scaling up to 10 cars a day. Lucid up 6.3% after going public today via SPAC.

 

[RobDickinson]

800,000 cars this year (conservative) , 55kwh per car = 44GWh, assume 50GWh in 2021

2022 suppliers to double that to 100GWh, Tesla to add 100GWh themselves (potential rate at end of year)

Thats cells for 3-3.5m cars a year in 2023

(* potentially less with larger packs in cybertruck and semi etc)

 

[insaneoctane]

800,000 cars this year (conservative) , 55kwh per car = 44GWh, assume 50GWh in 2021

2022 suppliers to double that to 100GWh, Tesla to add 100GWh themselves (potential rate at end of year)

Thats cells for 3-3.5m cars a year in 2023

Doesn't TE need a few cells though?

 

[StealthP3D]

Friendly reminder...stock split does nothing for a stock....essentially you are taking 4 slices of pizza and making it into 8 slices.

You don't happen to work at CNBC, do you?

 

[Buckminster]

"Drew correct me if I'm wrong...."

That was subtle but speaks volumes.

No more Elon on the earning calls

Glad to see Drew's level of involvement in engineering. Makes me sleep better and less worried about Elon's health & safety.

Drew to make COO at the Shareholder meeting?