Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Quick back of the envelope calculation.

200,000 deliveries generates about $1.5 eps.

Take that and project forward,
And assumie all the rest remains constant

Then 5 million car deliveries per year generates about $37.5 per share.

Power walls at 1 million per year would generate about 1 billion profit or $1 per share.

FSD on a fraction of the 5 million cars plus the outstanding fleet may easily generate about 5 billion profit or $5 per share.

The above adds up to $43.5 eps. These are crude guess estimates, and conservative , but gives one an idea
of what to expect.

You can apply whatever p/e multiple to the above to easily reach a stock valuation in the thousands.

The thing you have to remember with FSD and the take rates is that when Tesla hits 5 million P/D in a single year in like 2025 or 2026, you have also will have about 6 million Tesla’s already out in the wild. So you have to estimate profits off of 11 million FSD capable Tesla’s, not 5 million. FSD subscription model is a compounding factor in Tesla’s earnings

 

[InTheShadows]

So where does the share price go from here? Our PE ratio just got cut in half and earnings doubled.

 

[Krugerrand]

Quick back of the envelope calculation.

200,000 deliveries generates about $1.5 eps.

Take that and project forward,
And assumie all the rest remains constant

Then 5 million car deliveries per year generates about $37.5 per share.

Power walls at 1 million per year would generate about 1 billion profit or $1 per share.

FSD on a fraction of the 5 million cars plus the outstanding fleet may easily generate about 5 billion profit or $5 per share.

The above adds up to $43.5 eps. These are crude guess estimates, and conservative , but gives one an idea
of what to expect.

You can apply whatever p/e multiple to the above to easily reach a stock valuation in the thousands.

If you keep talking like that we’ll all be placing megapack orders for 2023 delivery.

 

[RobDickinson]

With Tesla, I am a worry wart. I can spot an issue, a problem, or a short coming from a mile away.


They said that competition will end Tesla's reign and it's growth story. Let's see.

Chevy release the bolt. Tesla sales grew.
Audi released the etron. Tesla sales grew.
Porsche released the taycan. Tesla sales grew.
Ford released the mustang Mach e. Tesla sales doubled.

But wait, Mercedes has the next Tesla killer coming.

Just so sick of the hatred, or whatever it is that makes me have to read all these negative headlines.

Its good to keep your eyes open, tesla has to because they know any misstep will hurt them more than any other company

Every time another company release an EV it confirms to their customer base that EVs are the future. Before they had EVs they could tell shoppers that EVs were a dead end. Now with one or more sat in their showroom its obviously a thing.

Now their sales staff have to explain to their customers about EVs (or not I guess). And it doesnt take long for a consumer to go look for other evs to compare...

It also doesnt take long to find out who is the 'apple' (yeah I hate that too but) of the EV space.

 

[juanmedina]

Yeah the haters are out and about. On Tweeter and on Facebook...even my coworkers on LinkedIn. Bastards.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Perhaps you missed the part about having robotaxis patrolling with robocops? /s

View attachment 688538

Or, station Zeus!

 

[lafrisbee]

After fully analyzing the Earnings Report I am willing to provide the forum with my expert prediction:
TSLA will not go down below $600 this week.

 

[RobDickinson]

Thats a brave prediction...

 

[Chenkers]

I was pleased that Emmet Peppers question about Elon being interviewed by @DaveT and/or Rob Maurer made it onto the earnings call. However I was surprised about Elon's apparent reluctance and saying he'd likely do just one. I realise he's super busy but he does already make time for a few interviews a year. I would have thought he'd enjoy being interviewed by someone who gets it and can ask intelligent interesting questions without trying for a big gotcha moment.

 

[RubberToe]

Hmmm. So adapters secured to the chargers in some way? Sounds rife for theft or vandalism.

Mailbox like stand holds 8 Tesla to CCS adapters. Tesla app for non-Tesla drivers unlocks and opens the mailbox on approach, just like phone as key opens the car. When done charging, driver puts dongle back in mailbox and closes it. No messing with credit cards or fobs, seamless.

RT

 

[EVforLiPo]

After fully analyzing the Earnings Report I am willing to provide the forum with my expert prediction:
TSLA will not go down below $600 this week.

Your probably right on that one. After this blowout earnings I can almost guarantee TSLA will not drop below $540 below Q3 earnings.

So where does the share price go from here? Our PE ratio just got cut in half and earnings doubled.

Nobody knows. Just remember this quote "The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time"
If I had to guess it would be higher in the next few months.

 

[Buddyroe]

Odd that I haven't seen a single tweet saying "Tesla loses money on every car it sells".

I guess that one has played out for the shorts. They're really reaching hard at this point.

 

[Knightshade]

Every single short attack had been completely disproven.

Naah.... they always fall back to accounting fraud- in which case no matter how great the #s are, they're fake, so who cares? Just check the feeds of the usual suspects I won't dignify by linking to (tc, gordon, stand-still capital, etc)

One "funny" remark was about how someone was going to buy call options on Teslas accounting firm after this.

They're also getting plenty of mileage out of Elons quote about even he thinks it's debatable if it makes sense to get an FSD subscription right now...and the continued lack of firm release dates for CT, and the now oft delayed roadster 2 and Semi.


So you can't really do much to address their accounting fraud narrative- even when folks have used real facts, math, and accounting knowledge to debunk things like the "they hide all their warranty costs under goodwill" story they just move WHERE the fraud is hiding around.

But that second bunch of stuff (which unlike the fraud is at least actually happening)--- it's amusing because the REAL story there is Tesla had this blowout quarter without any of that stuff (or even much from S and nothing from X).

Imagine when they DO get around to getting contributions from those things.

This, to me, was the best quarterly report in Tesla's history.

I mean, to everyone being honest about it

But damn, if you Google Tesla, click on News, and look at the headlines, you'd think it was Tesla's worst quarter ever.

It's almost like there's a lot of news outlets that have some sort of bias against a company that spends $0.00 buying ads or something.... weird huh?

They said that competition will end Tesla's reign and it's growth story. Let's see.

We have.

It won't

Mailbox like stand holds 8 Tesla to CCS adapters. Tesla app for non-Tesla drivers unlocks and opens the mailbox on approach, just like phone as key opens the car. When done charging, driver puts dongle back in mailbox and closes it. No messing with credit cards or fobs, seamless.

RT

Honestly I kinda hate the idea of Tesla needing to physically visit every single existing charging station and adding hardware (including hardware that can eventually fail) to each one... plus then needing to build that stuff into all future stations.

I'd personally prefer if Tesla just sold adapters to individual owners for some nominal cost and it was the owners responsibility to bring his own.


That said, they apparently already have some great idea for handling this, though no details given yet- and seem to prefer adapters be on-hand at the stations rather than leaving it in owners hands.

 

[Knightshade]

Your probably right on that one. After this blowout earnings I can almost guarantee TSLA will not drop below $540 below Q3 earnings.

Nobody knows. Just remember this quote "The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time"
If I had to guess it would be higher in the next few months.

The market explained-

Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal - AGS

Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal - AGS

www.smbc-comics.com

 

[ZsoZso]

These results may very well be the final wakeup call for some whales that were sitting on the sidelines until now.
However, such whales do not like buying chairs at premium prices, they want them on significant discount.
How will they manufacture a big enough dip for their taste ??? That is the million billion dollar question of the week.

 

[Nolimits]

I was pleased that Emmet Peppers question about Elon being interviewed by @DaveT and/or Rob Maurer made it onto the earnings call. However I was surprised about Elon's apparent reluctance and saying he'd likely do just one. I realise he's super busy but he does already make time for a few interviews a year. I would have thought he'd enjoy being interviewed by someone who gets it and can ask intelligent interesting questions without trying for a big gotcha moment.

Truthfully as much as that would be entertaining, I cringed at the question bc the man has so much on his plate. Let Elon be Elon. Execution pressure for Austin/ berlin, 4680/fsd/cybertruck is high. Not to
Mention spaceX and other companies he’s dipped in.

That said, Dave, rob and many other YouTubers do help many retail investors steer away from the fud and do deserve recognition.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

These results may very well be the final wakeup call for some whales that were sitting on the sidelines until now.
However, such whales do not like buying chairs at premium prices, they want them on significant discount.
How will they manufacture a big enough dip for their taste ??? That is the million billion dollar question of the week.

How would anyone buying tomorrow be buying at a premium? The stock is still down 27% from its high while the P/E has dropped dramatically. Sorry but I don’t think there’s any future downside from here after these results and I don’t see a orchestrated dip. There might be a lull between now and when buying volume really kicks in but that’s it.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The algos will be getting quite an update in the morning, we'll see what effect this new revenue/earnings level has on things.

I'm still thinking the 200 day moving avg heading north very soon is likely gonna help the upward trajectory. We're about 175 trading days from Nov 16, 2020 when the major upswing began.

I know nothing about nothing and am always wrong on timing.....but if we're somehow treading water a month from now I'm going back into prostitution and loading up on LEAPs. This is getting absurd.

 

[S3XY]

Nikola also doesn't have a chip problem.

However, they do have a shortage of hills.

 

[EVforLiPo]

These results may very well be the final wakeup call for some whales that were sitting on the sidelines until now.
However, such whales do not like buying chairs at premium prices, they want them on significant discount.
How will they manufacture a big enough dip for their taste ??? That is the million billion dollar question of the week.

Sure hope the opportunity comes. You have a share price the whales might want to load up on? I haven't added a single share since Oct. 2020 however did collect a lot of premium for selling naked puts.