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It ties into Drew's comment after that stating it is just an engineering issue - presumably the next iteration of manufacturing equipment will have stronger calendar rolls and development will move on to the next issue.
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It ties into Drew's comment after that stating it is just an engineering issue - presumably the next iteration of manufacturing equipment will have stronger calendar rolls and development will move on to the next issue.
Yes, they mentioned there were a number of issues left to solve, where the calendar roll example hardly seemed like a challenge that can't be overcome. They mentioned that the calendaring rolls they already ordered for berlin will need to be modified, but that sort of thing is to be expected with this breakneck pace. I got a very positive vibe about cell production from the earnings call and report..
We are nearing the end of manufacturing validation
at Kato: field quality and yield are at viable levels and our focus is now on improving
the 10% of manufacturing processes that currently bottleneck production output
While substantial progress has been made, we still have work ahead of us before we
can achieve volume production. Internal crash testing of our structural pack
architecture with a single-piece front casting has been successful.
Quality ánd yield at viable levels? After the deafening silence on cell production progress the past couple months I am very happy to hear that. It certainly sounds like they're on track to produce cells at really serious volume by the end of next year. We all know how further expansion works out once they have their first factory running.
This is all still subject to possible future delays due to all sorts of technical and other difficulties, but I was strapped in for a model 3-style ramp because this, that or the other turned out even more unimaginably more difficult than they thought it would. Gonna loosen them straps a little bit.
 
This may need to be reposted on August 19, but:

If you are not "the best AI talent", and you...

Don't like the production value of the event, or
Don't get your questions answered, or
Are disappointed that Elon's comments don't make the SP rise, or
Otherwise have a complaint about AI Day...

Please note that you are not the intended audience for AI Day and try to keep calm. "Convincing the best AI talent to join Tesla is the sole goal."
 
Can we all appreciate the fact that we have an extra 3-6 months to add shares in the 600s before Cybertruck/4680/giga Texas/Berlin enters into production and stock price rise up back to $900 rapidly then another stock split burns the naked shorts and send the stock back into $1200 before splitting to $300 again. That’s how I forecast the end of 2022.

Might be wrong, might be even more wrong , but I’ll add at every opportunities I got in the low $600s while we still can.
 
The CATL sodium battery presentation was quite high level. Key takeaways:
  • Aiming for 2023 commercialisation
  • 160Wh/kg now - target 200Wh/kg once commercialised (good for storage, short range vehicles only)
  • High cycle life
  • Good cold weather performance (down to -20C)
  • very cheap
  • rapid charging - 0-->80% in 15 mins
  • New cathode/anode materials required to work with larger sodium ions
  • CATL planning mixed Li/Na pack to get a good mix of cell performance.
Something to keep an eye on, but no immediate change in cell supply for Tesla from this tech.

Tweet summary from the usual suspects:

Full presentation on youtube (Chinese with subtitles).
 
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The CATL sodium battery presentation was quite high level. Key takeaways:
  • Aiming for 2023 commercialisation
  • 160Wh/kg now - target 200Wh/kg once commercialised (good for storage, short range vehicles only)
  • High cycle life
  • Good cold weather performance (down to -20C)
  • very cheap
  • rapid charging - 0-->80% in 15 mins
  • New cathode/anode materials required to work with larger sodium ions
  • CATL planning mixed Li/Na pack to get a good mix of cell performance.
Something to keep an eye on, but no immediate change in cell supply for Tesla from this tech.

Tweet summary from the usual suspects:

Full presentation on youtube (Chinese with subtitles).
For reference, Tesla’s 2170 batteries are about 260 wh/kg, so these probably would not be competitive for vehicles. Might be insanely cheap for stationary uses, though.
 
Correct me if I'm wrong, but interest expense is backed out of EBITA which is the basis for half of Elon's 2018 CEO comp. milestones (along with Revenue tgts).

So if I understand this, retiring debt early to increase EPS is mostly to benefit us, the shareholders (and not Elon specifically, who's CEO comp. doesn't depend on EPS, just Mkt Cap + Revenue + EBITA).

Of course, Elon is the largest TSLA shareholder too, so there's that... ;)

Cheers!
You are correct. Interest would be backed out of any EBITDA or Adjusted EBITDA calculations on which the performance milestones are based.

Retiring that debt truly only benefits EPS.

As much as some will argue it means that Tesla is saying it can’t generate returns higher than their interest expense on that cash, I am of the view that hoarding cash while paying any kind of interest is just poor financial management. Tesla isn’t capital constrained. It wasn’t when it did their last few capital raises.

It’s primary constraint is talent shortage and battery supply. Neither of those are constraints unclogged by more capital than they already have and already generate from operations.
 
In many ways, manipulating TSLA has become easier over time
* S&P 500 inclusion locked up more of the float and thus we see less stock trading every day to support the same amount of options trading. The net result is that the tendency is for the tail to wag the dog. In other words, the stock is priced for maximum advantage of the option sellers by every Friday rather than the stock price running wherever the market would normally take it and the option sellers and buyers just take their lumps or profits.
* Expectations have changed regarding Earnings Reports. Usually we see a run up in stock price leading into the ER and then an average of about a 4.5% pullback during ER week. When TSLA fails to climb after an excellent ER, some investors say, “See, it’s happening again, I should have learned.” In truth, the “It’s happening again” required that the Walll Street pirates do some selling in after-hours trading on ER day to cap the climb and make sure there’s a Mandatory Morning Dip at the start of market trading the following day so that the signal is sent to investors “It’s just another post ER price disappointment, nothing’s happening here this week.
* When the stock price fails to climb, the media pundits jump in with whatever explanation they can latch onto :“Elon is worried about the supply chain. Q3 and Q4 could be disappointing.” I’ve seen a recent ER when the non-GAAP profits exceeded expectations but the stock sank because Tesla doesn’t make a GAAP profit without credits.
* Even the price target increases by analysts are tempered by the artificially low stock prices. Analysts don’t want to get too far ahead of the price and the targets of others.
* In time, investors get conditioned to believe that good news doesn’t matter for TSLA’s price, and the only thing that matters is a big breakaway. You have investors sitting on the sidelines right now, even with this quarter’s good news, waiting for the next rally to begin.
* Fortunately, sooner or later the good news piles up, price targets keep getting raised, and some catalyst sends TSLA spiking upward, volume jumps, shorts jump out, traders jump in, and its off to the races until TSLA actually overshoots its appropriate price.

Right now TSLA is a game of watching to make sure the company is on track for long-term success and patiently waiting for the catalyst that overwhelms the pirates and sends TSLA on another voyage to the stratosphere (and hopefully beyond).
Aha! I was right then, it is pirates. Long live Henry Morgan! 🏴‍☠️
 

Not good.
Come on. First, there’s a lot of funny stuff in there. And second, what else did you expect? If you don’t script yourself or employees they say stuff like reckless growth and funding secured.