Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CHGolferJim]

James's professional background is working on company financial statements and business valuation so he knows his stuff and adds a lot to the Tesla investor community.

Does he post here on TMC?

 

[Singuy]

Of course this will get FAR more press than the coal power plant in the US that just got on fire.

Yup. But you know maybe we have a bias here. Tesla is a cutting edge technology company so any hiccups will get press. I'm sure when coal power plants were a new concept, there were plenty of press, good and bad back in the days. But after a century no one cares anymore and have accepted the risks that comes from them like ice car fires.

 

[InTheShadows]

Fires in electrical switchboards and transformers are relatively common and can be very severe. There is a huge amount of electrical current flowing in and out of these megapacks. All it would take would be an incorrect termination, a faulty relay or switch installation to cause a short circuit and resulting arc fire. So it doesn't have to be the megapack itself that starts the fire, although that is definitely a possibility. Any fault in manufacture or the installation of a big battery is likely to show up during initial testing. I'd be more concerned if this occurred after commissioning when the installation was fully operational.

By the way how much does Wall Street value the energy business anyway? I thought it was close to zero.

Arson seems unlikely as it's a pack deep into the system that caught on fire. If it's arson then I would say parameter packs would be on fire and more than one pack.

This is most likely due to an electrical component that blew causing a fire since they are likely to fail at the first phase of testing. No big deal really and a learning opportunity for Tesla.

I agree with @Chenkers post above. I’m an electrician and IMO the most likely scenario is an installation worker in the field did not make a crimp correctly or forgot to torque a connection down.

Then during commissioning the loose connection overheated and started a fire.

If this is what happen. I’m sure Tesla will follow up with an OTA update with a fix in a few weeks. And just for clarification this statement is not sarcasm.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1420965246882230279

 

[StealthP3D]

Since it's a French company that installed it, maybe sabotage?

I downvoted that, not because I think it couldn't have been sabotage, but because a French Company installing it would not increase the risk of sabotage.

However, whenever something threatens to disrupt profitable industries and create massive change, sabotage is always one possibility. People don't like change, especially when that change is the rapid shrinking of their bottom line.

 

[StealthP3D]

I hope you are right. I need a cheaper entry today

Huh? I didn't notice you were missing from action on Wednesday. I can only assume you just came into a large sum of money suddenly.

Congratulations?

 

[T@oo]

I downvoted that, not because I think it couldn't have been sabotage, but because a French Company installing it would not increase the risk of sabotage.

However, whenever something threatens to disrupt profitable industries and create massive change, sabotage is always one possibility. People don't like change, especially when that change is the rapid shrinking of their bottom line.

I read it as… arson.. french company.. sabotage… It‘s a word play. But maybe I am dense.

Edit: Not sure I need to point out that sabotage is french…

 

[Chenkers]

Does he post here on TMC?

Not that I'm aware of, he's mainly active on twitter. @DaveT has had him on his YouTube channel a couple of times. Below is the first and more in depth interview from March:

 

[UncaNed]

I agree with @Chenkers post above. I’m an electrician and IMO the most likely scenario is an installation worker in the field did not make a crimp correctly or forgot to torque a connection down.

Then during commissioning the loose connection overheated and started a fire.

If this is what happen. I’m sure Tesla will follow up with an OTA update with a fix in a few weeks. And just for clarification this statement is not sarcasm.

An OTA update for loose connectors???

Also, I miss our old perplexed smile emoticon.

 

[T@oo]

An OTA update for loose connectors???

No. Fault sensing. Delta A, Delta V. Depending where in the power electronics they have their sensors and shunts.

 

[StealthP3D]

I see so many posts passing by about what analysts are thinking.
Maybe Stephenson is a wrong example for me to use here, but please remember all those years we were convinced that they didn't have any clue what was going to happen with TSLA.
And they sure didn't.
And now, when the stock price is for some time staying at the same level, we are looking at them again?
Leave them be. Read the other posts here that inform you about what really is happening.
It cuts the nonsense and you will know where we are heading.

I quit paying serious attention to what Wall Street analysts thought about 25 years ago. Because my own observations showed me they were a contrarian indicator. It got to the point that I would second guess my decision to buy a stock if too many analysts agreed it was a buy. I'm dead serious! All of my best moves were contrary to analyst ratings (both in the short-term AND the early buys of my long-term mega-wins).

I'm saying this is not a coincidence.

 

[Mengy]

Does he post here on TMC?

No, but James Tesla analysis and charts are incredibly enlightening and useful. He's a good dude.

 

[Unpilot]

I quit paying serious attention to what Wall Street analysts thought about 25 years ago. Because my own observations showed me they were a contrarian indicator. It got to the point that I would second guess my decision to buy a stock if too many analysts agreed it was a buy. I'm dead serious! All of my best moves were contrary to analyst ratings (both in the short-term AND the early buys of my long-term mega-wins).

I'm saying this is not a coincidence.

It's pretty amazing the amount of people who watch and react to what is clearly theater.

The people on the "shows" that bring on the analysts are just actors....as are the analysts themselves.

They act like they know what they are talking about...they act serious...they dress nice.

All the while selling garbage.

No thank you.

 

[Nocturnal]

Up a little, just not up as much as NKLA.

Yup. But you know maybe we have a bias here. Tesla is a cutting edge technology company so any hiccups will get press. I'm sure when coal power plants were a new concept, there were plenty of press, good and bad back in the days. But after a century no one cares anymore and have accepted the risks that comes from them like ice car fires.

Journalism has always been a skummy profession. Agreed.

 

[StealthP3D]

I read it as… arson.. french company.. sabotage… It‘s a word play. But maybe I am dense.

Edit: Not sure I need to point out that sabotage is french…

I took it literally. If I started looking at the etymology of every word used in every sentence I would go crazy trying to figure out what people were really getting at. Plus, there was no "/s" or to suggest that was the case. So, either very poor communication or you read it wrong.

 

[Big Time]

And we green

 

[inconel]

By the way how much does Wall Street value the energy business anyway? I thought it was close to zero.

I guess the shorts think of it as like being short a put? Business goes up zero payoff, business goes down negative payoff. They'll justify it with things like reputational issues. The more desperate they are the more creative they'll be.

 

[The Accountant]

James is a long Tesla investor. I respect him quite a bit. He is very sharp, no-nonsense, and is among those that does stuff like the accountant.

I don't think @Maarten is taking a shot at James but rather stating why take a look at what Analysts have to say?

Look at these for examples:
Hold = Don't Buy nor Sell but Hold the stock if you already have it in your portfolio.
Roth Capital PT of $150 and HOLD. Wait! They think TSLA is going to $150 in 12 months and you want me to HOLD?
Bank of America PT of $800 and HOLD. Going to $800 in 12 months and you want me to HOLD? Not telling clients to BUY?

Or how about the analyst who always raises their Price Target slightly under where Tesla stock price is at the moment:

PT $300 - HOLD
6 months later PT $400 - HOLD
6 months later PT $500 - HOLD
6 months later PT $600 - HOLD
Wait you raised your price target 100% in 18 months and never told me to BUY.

I only trust 2-3 Analysts one of them being Piper Sandler because they publish their work and I can read through their assumptions and logic. Many of the others go on TV and tell us to Sell or Buy with nothing but sound bites . . . even their analyst reports share no modeling information.

 

[CHGolferJim]

All CC closed out, and off to play golf and enjoy the weekend, expecting to catch up with any $ left on the table on Monday -- want to see today's and some of Monday's action before entering the casino. 0806 Max Pain $695 as of Monday 7AM? HODL intact!

 

[SOULPEDL]

I like it when Tesla goes vertical.