Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[goinfraftw]

What do people think of The Joint Committee on Taxation’s revenue estimate (pdf) for Electric vehicle credits as proposed by Clean Energy for America Act?

View attachment 692758

Assuming $7,500 (refundable) EV credit per vehicle, this seems to project these yearly US EV sales:
2022: 37k
2023: 184k
2024: 208k
2025: 233k
2026: 265k
2027: 304k
2028: 342k
2029: 376k
2030: 411k
2031: 447k
2022-26: 927k
2022-31: 2.8M

Maybe the government has created a tricycle plan for the US automakers to avert climate change?

 

[CLK350]

Stating that something is a FACT by way of capitalizing that word does not make it a fact. It certainly cements your post as being a poster-child for why political discussion turns toxic in TMC.

And your post was summarily deleted because you took another’s words and edited them by replacing them with a potty-mouthed epithet. That suffices for having the rest of what you wrote, irrespective of any merits, be erased. Moderators have let all members know many, many times that profanity is not tolerated.

"Stating that something is a FACT by way of capitalizing that word does not make it a fact" - agreed, it is meant to emphasize the statement, per normal posting customs; I don't understand why you would think it was intended otherwise. The (now deleted) words i capitalized referred to rather factual notions, but do feel free to educate/ correct me, happy to learn anything I didn't know before. I did use the same (banned?) capitalization in my remarks, sorry about that if it breaks your rules.

For the record, I did not take just *anyone's* words, I took Elon's words "Yeah, seems odd that Tesla wasn’t invited" and stated that what he really wanted to say was "Yeah, seems ---- that Tesla wasn't invited", where ----- stands for the "F.. up" expression that I altered with a dot for the vowel I omitted, to no avail, I guess.

It is not far fetched to say that's what he probably would have said -and is what he meant- if it weren't for the necessity of being polite in his social media posts. Can anyone seriously imagine he is saying "odd" as in "he's just slightly puzzled" in a detached sort of way?

Elon has used the F word publicly before, and is more restrained now for obvious image/ business/ legal reasons - but we know (well I think I know from his many interviews, posts and things written about him) that it's not a far fetched notion to intuit what I put forward.

Overall I appreciate that the mods are doing a great job at keeping the discussions useful and on track - this is a really demanding job. Nonetheless, being careless about it or for some reason dissing a poster too much, or letting an annoying poster pester another one without serious consequences is regrettable, especially for valuable posters who have left the TMC forum, probably for lack of proper moderation - the ones that come to mind are @KarenRei and @paydirt76

 

[Nolimits]

Are the tax credits per vehicle or per household? It seems like the wording is based on VIN so, likely per vehicle?

 

[Knightshade]

That is exactly what I said. You cannot purchase a Tesla at a Tesla store in Texas. This is about paperwork. There is nothing that indicates where the physical item being purchased is located.


Great, a "rumor" about shipping out of state and back in that has no basis in any particular statute. I don't think that is all that convincing, except maybe for FUDsters.

If what you believe is accurate, then, how are people in Texas buying Tesla cars now?

What specific statute is it that will result in Tesla needing to ship vehicles manufactured in Texas out of state, then ship them back in to a customer?

If you disagree, show me the legal reference that supports your belief.

We covered this weeks (maybe a couple months?) ago when the TX legislature ended their normal session without passing anything about this.

The car can not physically be in Texas when it is sold.

So yes, it would have to leave Texas (if built there) then get brought back in.

Not only was this widely reported, Elon himself mentioned he'd appreciate if the law was changed so it was no longer true

Which would make no sense for him to say if it didn't actually require changing the law.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1398029410289127424

But if you want to read some law too here ya go:


Go here:

OCCUPATIONS CODE CHAPTER 2301. SALE OR LEASE OF MOTOR VEHICLES

Then scroll down to:

(c) Except as provided by this section, a manufacturer or distributor may not directly or indirectly:


(3) act in the capacity of:

(A) a franchised dealer or dealership, as defined by Sections 2301.002(16) and (8), respectively, for the same type of motor vehicle that:

(i) the manufacturer manufactures or distributes; or

(ii) the distributor distributes; or

(B) a nonfranchised dealer.


If you then click the hyperlink for 2301.002(16) it takes you to the definition of what acting like such a dealer would be- including " is engaged in the business of buying, selling, or exchanging new motor vehicles"


So, to sum up, Tesla, as a manufacturer, can not engage in the business of buying, selling, or exchanging new motor vehicles in texas

Which is what they'd be doing letting you purchase (even via their website) a vehicle in texas at the time of sale


The "except as provided" bit BTW, in case you imagine a loophole there, is regarding basically allowing a manufacturer to bail out a failed dealership, but it must be a legit licensed franchised one BEFORE they do so, and they have to sell it back off to someone else within 12 months generally.

 

[larmor]

That looks to be temporary according to this latest(? June 17) explanation of Modified Chairman's Mark of Clean Energy for America Act from Joint Committee on Taxation:
View attachment 692745

Notably before 2026, there is a "base" $7,500 ($2,500 + $5,000 increase based on battery size) EV credit + $2,500 union-made + $2,500 US-made. And beginning 2026, EV credit "base" is $10,000 ($5,000 + $5,000 battery) but requires US-made while keeping + $2,500 union-made.

Appears to be an anti-competitive measure, but not knowing anything about law or corporate law maybe someone can chime in. The UAW is uniform across many car manufacturers and may also be an anti-competitive element to car manufacturing in which there is pseudo cooperation as the UAW is uniform to all manufacturers where they are present. I’m just speculating here.

 

[mblakele]

What do people think of The Joint Committee on Taxation’s revenue estimate (pdf) for Electric vehicle credits as proposed by Clean Energy for America Act?

View attachment 692758

Assuming $7,500 (refundable) EV credit per vehicle, this seems to project these yearly US EV sales:
2022: 37k
2023: 184k
2024: 208k
2025: 233k
2026: 265k
2027: 304k
2028: 342k
2029: 376k
2030: 411k
2031: 447k
2022-26: 927k
2022-31: 2.8M

Tesla 2020 USA sales: ~293k. The credit looks to exclude S and X, but even so.... With exports moving to Shanghai, plus Austin coming online, I'm confident Tesla can exceed each of those annual numbers single-handed.

What am I missing?

 

[lascavarian]

Can anyone seriously imagine he is saying "odd" as in "he's just slightly puzzled" in a detached sort of way?

Yep, that is my read. I don’t think EM gives 2 shakes about that shindig. He’s stacking Starships on reusable boosters!

 

[mltv]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1423384460242866184

 

[goinfraftw]

Dunno, Biden is there to care for society and people. He said "jobs" a lot too during that speech.

 

[feigen66]

Dunno, Biden is there to care for society and people. He said "jobs" a lot too during that speech.

Listen carefully ... It's "union jobs", not "jobs".

 

[ReddyLeaf]

We covered this weeks (maybe a couple months?) ago when the TX legislature ended their normal session without passing anything about this.

The car can not physically be in Texas when it is sold.

So yes, it would have to leave Texas (if built there) then get brought back in.

Not only was this widely reported, Elon himself mentioned he'd appreciate if the law was changed so it was no longer true

Which would make no sense for him to say if it didn't actually require changing the law.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1398029410289127424

But if you want to read some law too here ya go:


Go here:

OCCUPATIONS CODE CHAPTER 2301. SALE OR LEASE OF MOTOR VEHICLES

Then scroll down to:

(c) Except as provided by this section, a manufacturer or distributor may not directly or indirectly:


(3) act in the capacity of:

(A) a franchised dealer or dealership, as defined by Sections 2301.002(16) and (8), respectively, for the same type of motor vehicle that:

(i) the manufacturer manufactures or distributes; or

(ii) the distributor distributes; or

(B) a nonfranchised dealer.


If you then click the hyperlink for 2301.002(16) it takes you to the definition of what acting like such a dealer would be- including " is engaged in the business of buying, selling, or exchanging new motor vehicles"


So, to sum up, Tesla, as a manufacturer, can not engage in the business of buying, selling, or exchanging new motor vehicles in texas

Which is what they'd be doing letting you purchase (even via their website) a vehicle in texas at the time of sale


The "except as provided" bit BTW, in case you imagine a loophole there, is regarding basically allowing a manufacturer to bail out a failed dealership, but it must be a legit licensed franchised one BEFORE they do so, and they have to sell it back off to someone else within 12 months generally.

Here’s a suggestion to Elon. All vehicles sold to Texans should be parked at the state capital en masse and those wanting to accept delivery should show up and take them.

 

[goinfraftw]

Listen carefully ... It's "union jobs", not "jobs".

I did! Listen again, also pay attention to his past speeches leading up to the election as well as Obama in his presidency as well. This has been an issue they've been tackling for a decade+

Barack Obama Talks AI, Robo Cars, and the Future of the World

The president in conversation with MIT's Joi Ito and WIRED editor-in-chief Scott Dadich.

www.wired.com

 

[MartinAustin]

Rumor is that vehicles built at GigaTexas would have to be shipped out of state before they could be sold to a Texas resident.

I still don't believe it. I think Tesla should deliver vehicles to Texans without them exiting the state first, and even allow Factory tour/deliveries... and if someone sues them, then they get in touch with Lina Khan about it, 'cos it's clearly anti-competitive.

 

[Jack6591]

Has Joe (Corvette) Biden driven a Plaid Model S?

I’m thinking Jay Leno would be the perfect person to introduce him to the Plaid Model S.

 

[lafrisbee]

here is a thought.... there are 3 Native American Reservations in Texas. And all though all three are near the TX border they are crossed equidistance from east to west. I wonder if the Native Americans have some legal mumbo jumbo they can use to sell teslas in the state without having to drive them through the reservation? Or perhaps that would be all they had to do. One of them looks like it might be logistically-advantaged to have car carriers drive through it from Austin and then ?

 

[Wicket]

here is a thought.... there are 3 Native American Reservations in Texas. And all though all three are near the TX border they are crossed equidistance from east to west. I wonder if the Native Americans have some legal mumbo jumbo they can use to sell teslas in the state without having to drive them through the reservation? Or perhaps that would be all they had to do. One of them looks like it might be logistically-advantaged to have car carriers drive through it from Austin and then ?

That's a pretty neat idea. Hmmm...

 

[MC3OZ]

I still don't believe it. I think Tesla should deliver vehicles to Texans without them exiting the state first, and even allow Factory tour/deliveries... and if someone sues them, then they get in touch with Lina Khan about it, 'cos it's clearly anti-competitive.

So everyone who pays $50,000 for a factory tour, gets a free Cybertruck

 

[22522]

Has Joe (Corvette) Biden driven a Plaid Model S?

I’m thinking Jay Leno would be the perfect person to introduce him to the Plaid Model S.

Not safe.

 

[wipster]

Much better...

Gotta be good that the Secretary of Transportation drives a Tesla right?

 

[mblakele]

Here’s a suggestion to Elon. All vehicles sold to Texans should be parked at the state capital en masse and those wanting to accept delivery should show up and take them.

Not bad, but most of the time the legislature isn't in session... so deliveries might not get the attention they deserve.

What if Tesla delivered vehicles as close as possible to the home or office of each new owner's legislator? The new owner could also hand-deliver a letter to the representative, encouraging action on direct sales. Tesla would supply the letter, naturally.