Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

Are you implying you’re a country music fan?

Or.......

 

[Ulmo]

(Tesla Pickup):



This is what has me puzzled about Rivian: they have said recently that their 400-mile range model with 180kwh pack will definitely have some configurations under $90k. They have a very credible team and business plan and live prototypes, but what about their battery technology? All the other “Tesla killers” have suffered when compared to Tesla in that category.

Here is a Rivian spec sheet from a few months ago:

View attachment 387386

Rough math:

$100/kwh * 180kwh = $18,000

Let's assume Rivian gets a HORRIBLE battery contract for $200/kwh, and that pays for the battery pack costs, too:

$200/kwh * 180kwh = $36,000

$90,000 - $36,000 = $54,000

The claim is that Rivian cannot make a compelling pickup with battery pack paid for and done with only $54,000 left and make enough profit to pay for their debt and other costs. I contest that.

Let's go super conservative scorched-earth nutso:

$300/kwh * 180kwh = $54,000

$90,000 - $54,000 = $36,000

The claim even then is that $36,000 is not enough to make everything in the car besides the battery pack, for the entirety of the company, and therefore they can never bring costs down and start paying down debt. I contest even that.

Am I out of the loop? Is it really $400/kwh? Let's try:

$400/kwh * 180kwh = $72,000

$90,000 - $72,000 = $18,000.

If there is an $18,000 new pickup, anywhere, we have to wonder if even that is possible. That is stretching the imagination a little, though.

But by $400/kwh, I think we've already well left the realm of reality.

 

[Artful Dodger]

find it funny how analysts keep saying that they want to see Tesla raise more cash and sell stock, but then when Tesla increases its cash position and does acquisitions with stock, they say, "SEE, TESLA IS DOOMED!"

FTFY. But we knew that, didn't we?

Cheers!

 

[SPadival]

First steel pillar of GF3 installed:

JayinShanghai on Twitter

The text reads "Congrats to Tesla Gigafactory for successfully installing the first steel pillar in phase one”

ED: More info:

Kelvin Yang on Twitter

---------
Prefabricated load-bearing column. TIL how it's going to be completed in May

Some additional information: This first column is for General Assembly building. 11.5 meters,10.8 tons. General Assembly building is 450m x 48m x 15m in size.
---------

You know, that's remarkably similar in dimensions to Lathrop...

At the rate they are going, the second steel pillar was probably installed 2 seconds later

 

[SpeedGoat]

You have to be careful to compare equivalent range standards here, your E-tron and EQC numbers are too high.

E-tron is 248 miles WLTP which i think would be closer to 200 miles EPA.
I-Pace is 234 miles EPA range vs 292 WLTP and 336 miles NEDC
EQC is 280 miles NEDC, which is likely c.195 miles EPA.
Pole Star 2 is 310 miles NEDC and 275 miles EPA

I was working from the numbers compiled in the article. If 195 miles is all Mercedes can get out of the EQC then they might as well not bother releasing it. A vehicle with that range at that price point would probably just end up damaging their brand. Imagine trying to drive that on the autobahn in the winter, it would effectively be a city car for German drivers. (of course that is basically exactly what the E-tron and I-pace are...)

 

[Remus]

Yes, this obviously assumes they are available in some kind of real volume by the time the Model Y arrives.

Not everyone is all that concerned with the interior volume of a CUV. Most of these vehicles are used as standard commuter cars by people who just want to sit a few inches higher. They are basically the modern substitute for most mid-sized hatchbacks.

You don't seems to concerned about your little assumption as you should.
Hyundai Slashes Kona Electric Production, But Why?

No news about their production hell, why the cut?

 

[Ulmo]

Wow almost 2M views in 1 day (without counting me, I downloaded it from Vimeo)!

Surely "No Demand" for Model Y!!!!!

For the record, Model 3 Unveil video has 3.5M views for nearly 3 years.
Also, Tesla YouTube channel's most popular video is that April fool's ticket-avoidance mode with 8.3M views.View attachment 387387View attachment 387388View attachment 387389

Now at 2,210,640 YouTube views. Also note that Google did not censor Tesla from Google's advertising campaigns; #17 on Trending.

 

[NicoV]

It’ll be one of those “GTFO” moments for whoever gets that serial number.

That one is already long gone, my vin is 243K+

 

[Matias]

Are you of the opinion that those three options will come to the Model 3 soon? I don't think they'll ever come to the Model 3: luxury convenience features and extra space are differentiation for the S/X.

Power trunk is nowadays very basic feature.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Is there a launch of the Falcon Heavy 4/7/2019 out of Canavral/Kennedy in Florida at about 6:36EST (3 weeks!)
It is, to me, more viscerally interesting to see a falcon launch, esp heavy, than static test

OT

Part of the ongoing CNBC mis-information campaign against Musk industries. Spaceflight Now cleared this up with a story 2 days ago:

"Officials have not announced a launch date for the Falcon Heavy’s next mission, but multiple officials suggested to Spaceflight Now the flight is scheduled to take off in the first week of April from launch pad 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. CNBC reported Friday the launch is targeted for no earlier than April 7 at 6:36 p.m. EDT (2236 GMT)."​

Notice the always clever weasel words to avoid culpability for CNBC misreporting: "for no earlier than" .

Air Force sees upcoming Falcon Heavy launches as key to certifying reused rockets – Spaceflight Now

 

[trils0n]

Notice the always clever weasel words to avoid culpability for CNBC misreporting: "for no earlier than" .

'No earlier than' is pretty standard for rocket launches. Not weasel words, but actual scheduling/contract terms.

 

[KarenRei]

Whoa....

Also: They're planning to be building Starship / Super Heavy simultaneously in Texas and Florida.

 

[KarenRei]

You don't seems to concerned about your little assumption as you should.
Hyundai Slashes Kona Electric Production, But Why?

No news about their production hell, why the cut?

Hadn't seen that, but it makes sense. Production this year was stated to be targeted at 40k/yr.

 

[Chickenlittle]

OT

Part of the ongoing CNBC mis-information campaign against Musk industries. Spaceflight Now cleared this up with a story 2 days ago:

"Officials have not announced a launch date for the Falcon Heavy’s next mission, but multiple officials suggested to Spaceflight Now the flight is scheduled to take off in the first week of April from launch pad 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. CNBC reported Friday the launch is targeted for no earlier than April 7 at 6:36 p.m. EDT (2236 GMT)."​

Notice the always clever weasel words to avoid culpability for CNBC misreporting: "for no earlier than" .

Air Force sees upcoming Falcon Heavy launches as key to certifying reused rockets – Spaceflight Now

I find it funny airfares/NASA will not allow flight proven booster use. Seems to me without a single failure of one of these they should be paying more to use these. Low failure rate of falcon9 but still higher than flight proven ones

 

[EVNow]

Let's assume Rivian gets a HORRIBLE battery contract for $200/kwh, and that pays for the battery pack costs, too:

$200/kwh * 180kwh = $36,000

$90,000 - $36,000 = $54,000

The claim is that Rivian cannot make a compelling pickup with battery pack paid for and done with only $54,000 left and make enough profit to pay for their debt and other costs. I contest that.

GM's Bolt battery cost of $150/kWh was considered too low - and LG was upset with GM for disclosing it. $200/kWh is what I'd consider good for Rivian.

What does a comparitive ICE truck cost ? How much is the margin on those and can it really pay for rest of the company ?

There is a reason there haven't been any other successful new comers in the auto industry in the US in a century.

ps : Tesla has accumulated losses of $5B.

 

[Remus]

Power trunk is nowadays very basic feature.

This is actually pretty strange. I thought they only need to increase the resistance of the spring a couple of pounds more.

 

[Artful Dodger]

a few of my co-workers said they didn't consider a Tesla GM because they heard it is going went bankrupt

FTFY.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

"tech company" itself is a weird designation. If you search on the web you will see a lot of criticism of that way of classifying a company anyway. What is the commonality between Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Netflix and Facebook ? Yet - people easily move among these companies and their skills are transferable. What all these companies have in common is - they take a problem and solve it using newer high tech means - whether it is retail, making a music player/phone, watching movies or .connecting with your friends/relatives.

Same way Tesla has taken up the automobile/energy issues using newer high tech means to solve the problems. So, it is a tech company in the automobile / energy industries - just as Amazon is a tech company in the retail sector.

Main commonality I see is they’re all software-heavy. And Tesla certainly has that in common with them, to a much larger degree than any other vehicle manufacturer

 

[Chickenlittle]

Of course you can go to production/delivery section of model3 but for those not watching there, I was very surprised to see 2 week delivery of a model3 LR AWD ordered this morning. Live on east coast so clearly already built and either in transit or at distribution center.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Not everyone is all that concerned with the interior volume of a CUV. Most of these vehicles are used as standard commuter cars by people who just want to sit a few inches higher. They are basically the modern substitute for most mid-sized hatchbacks

I’m guessing you don’t have kids.