Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Moneyball is reporting wholesale units (most likely export + domestic sales):
Tesla #China Jul wholesale at 32,968 units. (CPCA)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1425006108071006209

Yes, and that's a 6.7% increase MoM (Jul vs Jun), and also above the 3-mth avg for Q2 (A-M-J).

Pre-market BAU: when in doubt short (when certain, also short)

Cheers!

 

[Tslynk67]

01Q3: ~33k
MoM: -0.6% (32.8k)
QoQ: +27.5% (26k)
YoY: +200% (11k)

 

[22522]

Not sure whether this was shared here or whether everyone is already aware of it:

Sandy Munro do not own Tesla stock anymore, or any stock on that matter.

He said he made some money trading it in and out, but later found out if he wants do interviews on the topic, he can not own the stock, so he “have to sell it and call it the day”.

This is great news to me, as I always thought he still owns the stock and has been subconsciously discounting his remarks on Tesla products. Now knowing this, it adds tons of credibility back.

Also, as always, great interview, it’s hard to listen to Sandy talking about Tesla’s technology lead and not be like “Bullish AF”.

Seeing as knowledge of FSD behavior is not public information, anyone who has seen it has inside information. I don’t know if Sandy could hold any shares acquired after receiving inside information through the release of that information to the public and keep any integrity based professional license he might hold. So there are two dates people with non public FSD knowledge have to pay attention to. 1) When did I get the knowledge and 2) when did it become public.

 

[Singuy]

Seeing as knowledge of FSD behavior is not public information, anyone who has seen it has inside information. I don’t know if Sandy could hold any shares acquired after receiving inside information through the release of that information to the public and keep any integrity based professional license he might hold. So there are two dates people with non public FSD knowledge have to pay attention to. 1) When did I get the knowledge and 2) when did it become public.

Did FSD testers signed a NDA? Pretty sure FSD is public information when Sandy sat in a youtubers car.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

We've seen some boats leave China before end of month & arrive next month. Reasons include port problems (including covid) & lack of ships. I don't know how many are in transit, some of the ship trackers could guess. This could add a good chunk more, but I'm speculating.

Ending the delivery wave would be welcome by many customers.

Ultimately, production is most important as they all sell. Tesla just have to weigh up the various factors in seeding markets, maximising profit & short-term incentives

I do agree with idea Tesla should just give out monthly production updates since these numbers gets released anyways to clear up confusion. They could say monthly total production, local deliveries, exports, and cars in transit (that go to exports). It’s a bit hard for me to believe the monthly production output was below June’s output given the anecdotal data we had. I think it was at least 36k total production. But now we have to wait for Aug numbers to see

 

[traxila]

I do agree with idea Tesla should just give out monthly production updates since these numbers gets released anyways to clear up confusion. They could say monthly total production, local deliveries, exports, and cars in transit (that go to exports). It’s a bit hard for me to believe the monthly production output was below June’s output given the anecdotal data we had. I think it was at least 36k total production. But now we have to wait for Aug numbers to see

Tesla should not waste time compiling monthly China numbers for release nor resources to counter the inevitable FUD afterwards to explain the numbers.

Musk wanted to take the company private just so the company would not have to deal with this nonsense.

I understand why you want the numbers and I don’t fault you. Elon’s response will always be the same: buy the stock if you like and wait. You will be rewarded. This does not help traders and short term option players, but Elon doesn’t care. Nothing personal…

 

[lascavarian]

For the latest on the Short Thesis, Chanos on CNBC in the next hour. Topic is meme stocks but you know what stock is likely to come up.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Tesla should not waste time compiling monthly China numbers for release nor resources to counter the inevitable FUD afterwards to explain the numbers.

Musk wanted to take the company private just so the company would not have to deal with this nonsense.

I understand why you want the numbers and I don’t fault you. Elon’s response will always be the same: buy the stock if you like and wait. You will be rewarded. This does not help traders and short term option players, but Elon doesn’t care. Nothing personal…

Of course if it was a hassle or actually cost the company time….then sure don’t bother. But I’d have to imagine in today’s age that they track the numbers dynamically. One of the reasons Elon didn’t want to release numbers before is that it wouldn’t be representative of the production ramp and I still agree with that. In this case for China specifically, they’re releasing numbers themselves which already which defeats the purpose

 

[replicant]

I really like the structure of this article: China Car Sales Dropped for Second Straight Month in July Amid Chip Shortage

 

[Unpilot]

For the latest on the Short Thesis, Chanos on CNBC in the next hour. Topic is meme stocks but you know what stock is likely to come up.

No thanks. I used to like Barney the purple dinosaur when I was a kid....but outgrew that type of silliness.

 

[Artful Dodger]

01Q3: ~33k
MoM: -0.6% (32.8k)

The wholesale (CPCA) MoM data via Moneyball on Twitter is:

• June 2021 33,155
• July 2021 32,968

Further, that's just an industry estimate of sales including exports (CPCA - not Tesla data), and specifically NOT production (GASGOO) which comes out on a later schedule than this report.

Significantly, CPCA numbers do not account for changes in inventory. So July sales could include cars produced in June, and July sales could miss cars produced in July. CPCA is inherently 'noisy' data. As always, it's the long-term trend that matters, not the MoM 'noise'.

Source tweets:
Moneyball on Twitter: "Tesla MIC Jun Wholesale at 33,155 Retail: 28,138 Export: 5,017 (CPCA)" / Twitter
Moneyball on Twitter: "Tesla #China Jul wholesale at 32,968 units. (CPCA)" / Twitter

The Pre-Market has already shrugged off this nothingburger / attempt to "Gordon" the SP:

EDIT:

Only 178K shares of TSLA traded in the Pre-Market through 08:50 ET.
Repeat, the July CPCA report is a nothingburger.

Cheers!

 

[ZachF]

For the latest on the Short Thesis, Chanos on CNBC in the next hour. Topic is meme stocks but you know what stock is likely to come up.

Chanos can make anyone a millionaire!

Step One: Start with a billion dollars....

Assets Have Tanked at Two of the World’s Biggest Short Sellers

Jim Chanos’ Kynikos Associates and Jim Carruthers’ Sophos Capital got much smaller in 2020, according to new regulatory filings.

www.institutionalinvestor.com

"Chanos, arguably the most well-known short seller in the world, lost more than 50 percent of its assets last year. Kynikos ended 2020 with about $405 million in regulatory assets under management, down from around $932 million the prior year, according to annual ADV filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The long bull market has punished Chanos for years. In 2018, when Institutional Investor profiled him, Kynikos ran just under $2 billion, having already lost almost three-quarters of his assets since the financial crash of 2008, when it ran $7 billion."

 

[Artful Dodger]

It’s a bit hard for me to believe the monthly production output was below June’s output given the anecdotal data we had

That could be because CPCA data is NOT production, it is wholesale sales, including exports (which are by nature difficult to estimate at the Port of Shanghai).

Monthly production numbers are the GASGOO numbers, which come out on a later schedule than CPCA.

The big difference is change in Inventory, which is unaccounted for in these measures, and can easily number in the thousands of vehicles.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

That could be because CPCA data is NOT production, it is wholesale sales, including exports (which are by nature difficult to estimate at the Port of Shanghai).

Monthly production numbers are the GASGOO numbers, which come out on a later schedule than CPCA.

The big difference is change in Inventory, which is unaccounted for in these measures, and can easily number in the thousands of vehicles.

Yes that’s what I was getting at. I’m aware that these numbers are lacking the vehicles sitting on the Giga China lot at the end of the month as well as vehicles in transit to the docks and vehicles sitting on the docks waiting to be loaded. Vehicles don’t count as exported until they’re loaded on the ships.

Which is why based on the wu wan videos on July 30th, there’s at least 2,000-3,000 vehicles that were produced but not counted as exported. Add in another 1,000-1,500 vehicles in transit to the docks or on the lots at the docks waiting to be loaded. So my estimate is about 37-38k total production

 

[lascavarian]

No thanks. I used to like Barney the purple dinosaur when I was a kid....but outgrew that type of silliness.

LOL, he DOES resemble Barney. Great comment!

edit. No real comment on TSLA, mostly about AMC.

 

[thx1139]

Yes that’s what I was getting at. I’m aware that these numbers are lacking the vehicles sitting on the Giga China lot at the end of the month as well as vehicles in transit to the docks and vehicles sitting on the docks waiting to be loaded. Vehicles don’t count as exported until they’re loaded on the ships.

Which is why based on the wu wan videos on July 30th, there’s at least 2,000-3,000 vehicles that were produced but not counted as exported. Add in another 1,000-1,500 vehicles in transit to the docks or on the lots at the docks waiting to be loaded. So my estimate is about 37-38k total production

Very good answer, but do we know exactly when they are counted. Is it when loaded on the ship or when the boat leaves? Since it is the 1st month of the quarter likely little pressure on the logistics teams to do anything to get cars counted.

 

[Singuy]

Anyone have cpca numbers handy for the first month of every quarter compared to last month of the prior quarter? I feel like first month was always lower due to a lack of end of Q push. I think this is the fist time MOM didn't have a dramatic decrease due to exporting.

 

[Criscmt]

Actually, Tesla management could call for a special meeting without warning. Just calling a special meeting for the purpose of authorizing more shares would be a sight to behold in terms of share price action. And there's not a doggone thing the SEC could do about it.

Still needs shareholder voting?

And, I would think AGM now unlikely to be on Aug-19 because there must be at least 10 days of notice. Would it be held within days, few weeks from another event (AI day), less likely? This makes AGM, shareholder voting less likely in August.

This in turn will make split unlikely before ESPP enrollment deadline in September for Tesla employees?

EDIT: By special meeting, did you mean special shareholder meeting? How many days of notice is needed for that? If the split isn't done soon enough to be useful for employees in their ESPP enrollment for Q4-2021, with deadline in September, isn't it unlikely to happen for the next few months?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

China production looks flat to up. Domestic sales are a bit of a mess, but that seems to be a function of China-wide chaos not Tesla demand.

Volume was absolutely anemic yesterday and we popped 2% on what I assume is MM covering in a backdrop of rising analyst estimates. Should continue through the month and then rocket time when all the fatcats get back from the Hamptons in mid-September and volume/appetite triples.

 

[thx1139]

China production looks flat to up. Domestic sales are a bit of a mess, but that seems to be a function of China-wide chaos not Tesla demand.

Volume was absolutely anemic yesterday and we popped 2% on what I assume is MM covering in a backdrop of rising analyst estimates. Should continue through the month and then rocket time when all the fatcats get back from the Hamptons in mid-September and volume/appetite triples.

Remember this doesnt reflect production. We dont know how many cars were produced and didnt make it on ships or into local hands. No pressure on Tesla logistics teams in China to maximize metrics like they would at end of quarter.