Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

For the latest on the Short Thesis, Chanos on CNBC in the next hour. Topic is meme stocks but you know what stock is likely to come up.

Chanos has been totally wrong on China as a whole for past decade or so.
What value add will he provide on China numbers

 

[Artful Dodger]

China production looks flat to up.

Again, CPCA is NOT PRODUCTION numbers. They are wholesale sales, which can include changes in inventory.

You can not infer anything about MoM production changes from CPCA numbers. Production estimates are released by GASGOO.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I really like the structure of this article: China Car Sales Dropped for Second Straight Month in July Amid Chip Shortage

The fact that it even mentions that Tesla exports more cars the first month of every quarter makes it praiseworthy.

 

[thx1139]

Again, CPCA numbers are NOT PRODUCTION. They are wholesale sales, which can include changes in inventory. You can not infer anything about MoM production changes from CPCA numbers.

What does wholesale mean when it comes to the local numbers? Does Tesla sell cars to a subsidiary in China that actually delivers to local Chinese customers?

 

[nativewolf]

I call B.S. Of course he could do interviews on EV's owning TSLA - just would have to put out a disclaimer that he owns some -
Or to address here @WarpedOne following comment, he could simply own ARKK or Baron's BPTRX - or simply not care being labeled a Tesla fan. Detractors will always cook up some reason to FUD positive commenters, we know why.

So possibly for PR reasons not wanting to alienate current and potential clients. More likely because he doesn't feel as comfortable about financial matters (including shenanigans, legal/ accepted or not) as he does engineering things. TBH it does take a huge amount of time, not everyone wants to/ can spend that much time/ energy. Most prefer to go the safe route and go with trusted financial advisors, or soulless mindless odorless BRKA type funds. And he probably got sea sick trading TSLA.

[Rant Begin] Probably also, like the majority of folks in the US (over the age of say 19) he doesn't really appreciate what global warming is or its causes. And like many, even Tesla fans, happily going on super polluting cruises, etc.
Global warming, which incidentally the newly released Tesla Impact Report with Rob Maurer's Tesla Daily excellent narrated version tackles masterfully

View attachment 694651

Which (super rant) few will bother to read/ understand or translate into action.

Need to start a fundraiser for public awareness /education campaign. instead of these $B spent on marketing toys, entertainment, movies, self serving politicians and parties, mindless tourism, unhealthy food and medicines etc

[Rant End]

Sandy has been predicting the coming of an EV dawn for a few years, long before anyone else in Detroit-he has personally lost clients because of this. Your attack on his character and motives are a low and ill conceived attack on one of the most influential and unbiased proponents of the EV revolution .

Might I suggest that you go watch 20-30 of his engineering videos and then go tip your cashier. Oh and maybe buy a bumper sticker to help him breakdown a plaid.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Buy at $705
Sell at $718
All the doo da day

^ technically not MMD poetry

 

[viridi]

Games started pre-market today with lots of pre-market capping/spoofing. Among others, there was a sell order of 4,900 shares at $713 put in right before Chanos came on CNBC. As the stock dropped below $712, a sell order for 2,200 at $712 was put in (which was slowly filled, but held the stock back for a bit). These were both very big orders for pre-market trading. The games continued into the trading today, with $710 being fought hard, and now $705. Low volume is enabling for the MMs and shorts.

 

[Mengy]

Sandy has been predicting the coming of an EV dawn for a few years, long before anyone else in Detroit-he has personally lost clients because of this. Your attack on his character and motives are a low and ill conceived attack on one of the most influential and unbiased proponents of the EV revolution .

Might I suggest that you go watch 20-30 of his engineering videos and then go tip your cashier. Oh and maybe buy a bumper sticker to help him breakdown a plaid.

Agreed. Sandy is fully on board both the Tesla hype train and the EV revolution train. He does a lot of work for other EV manufacturers like Arcimoto and Aptera, he likely simply sold his TSLA to avoid the bias argument being used against him.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I recently signed up for Interactive Brokers, I just have a dummy trading account for now

I got this in my email today.

Symbol	Buy	Outperform	Hold	Underperform	Sell
TSLA@NASDAQ	11(+1)	6(0)	13(-1)	5(0)	3(0)

As analysts shift to the bull side, more people experience Teslas and Tesla continues to do well/accelerate, I hope it won't take long for Tesla to be mainstream.

By my reckoning, that's 17 bullish, 8 bearish & 13 sitting on the fence - very positive & quite an improvement from when I've looked before

 

[nativewolf]

Agreed. Sandy is fully on board both the Tesla hype train and the EV revolution train. He does a lot of work for other EV manufacturers like Arcimoto and Aptera, he likely simply sold his TSLA to avoid the bias argument being used against him.

I agreed but really it is Sandy that breaks down why it is not hype, he has often demonstrated the engineering and manufacturing reason for the differentiation he sees between Tesla and legacy OEMs and their ecosystem partners (like the borg warner inverter used by Ford on the MachE -an inverter that is expensive to make, heavy, and a poor fit for a real EV)

 

[The Accountant]

2021 Monthly China Numbers for Proper Context
As other members have posted, the numbers released today for China are Deliveries not Production.
Production numbers will be available later in the month around the 23nd.
As you can see on the chart below, Tesla usually produces more cars than shipped in the first month of the Qtr:
Jan - 21,484 Delivered - 24,819 Produced
Apr - 25,845 Delivered - 30,494 Produced

The dynamic reversed in the final month of the Qtr as deliveries move to mainly local China.
BTW - the numbers released by the Twitter account Moneyball don't add up. When adding the components, we arrive at 33,345 vs 32,968 reported wholesale...not much of a difference to be material.

My assessment on China? To quote a fellow member "Bullish AF"

 

[henchman24]

The China monthly numbers sound about right to me. Around 33k is around 400k yearly. Plus this is consistent with May and June numbers as well. Hopefully that ticks up a few thousand in September, but I think we can say with the current lines installed, they are pretty much at realistic capacity there for the time being (within a couple thousand range). Read that as current as the 25k Model seems to be coming soon that will increase that output and seems there are other production issues still out there industry wide.

~8k up for the first month probably pushes China >100k too. 220-230k is realistic for Q3 IMO.

 

[Knightshade]

Buy at $705
Sell at $718
All the doo da day

^ technically not MMD poetry

Do it with options for not-advice leverage

695 puts sold Friday rebought at 70% profit Monday morning pop

755 calls sold yesterday during pop rebought at over 80% profit this mornings dip (during which I then resold the puts for more than I'd rebought em for yesterday- and which now are themselves already up over 10%...)

 

[Nocturnal]

Do it with options for not-advice leverage

695 puts sold Friday rebought at 70% profit Monday morning pop

755 calls sold yesterday during pop rebought at over 80% profit this mornings dip (during which I then resold the puts for more than I'd rebought em for yesterday- and which now are themselves already up over 10%...)

Just did this with some pocket change. (bought 8/13 707.5s) I rarely do weeklies but if these jerks are going to keep this up I'll skim some off the top.

 

[st_lopes]

I recently signed up for Interactive Brokers, I just have a dummy trading account for now

I got this in my email today.

Symbol	Buy	Outperform	Hold	Underperform	Sell
TSLA@NASDAQ	11(+1)	6(0)	13(-1)	5(0)	3(0)

As analysts shift to the bull side, more people experience Teslas and Tesla continues to do well/accelerate, I hope it won't take long for Tesla to be mainstream.

By my reckoning, that's 17 bullish, 8 bearish & 13 sitting on the fence - very positive & quite an improvement from when I've looked before

Now do Amazon and you get a sense of where we are headed

The China monthly numbers sound about right to me. Around 33k is around 400k yearly. Plus this is consistent with May and June numbers as well. Hopefully that ticks up a few thousand in September, but I think we can say with the current lines installed, they are pretty much at realistic capacity there for the time being (within a couple thousand range). Read that as current as the 25k Model seems to be coming soon that will increase that output and seems there are other production issues still out there industry wide.

~8k up for the first month probably pushes China >100k too. 220-230k is realistic for Q3 IMO.

Precisely. They are on track to beat 100k Q3 out of Shanghai. That’s the real story.

To quote @The Accountant who Quoted another forum member… Bullish AF

 

[Unpilot]

Just did this with some pocket change. (bought 8/13 707.5s) I rarely do weeklies but if these jerks are going to keep this up I'll skim some off the top.

Will..not..buy...weeklies....again...


Edit: so weak I caved in and bought 10 seconds after posting.

 

[thx1139]

2021 Monthly China Numbers for Proper Context
As other members have posted, the numbers released today for China are Deliveries not Production.
Production numbers will be available later in the month around the 23nd.
As you can see on the chart below, Tesla usually produces more cars than shipped in the first month of the Qtr:
Jan - 21,484 Delivered - 24,819 Produced
Apr - 25,845 Delivered - 30,494 Produced

The dynamic reversed in the final month of the Qtr as deliveries move to mainly local China.
BTW - the numbers released by the Twitter account Moneyball don't add up. When adding the components, we arrive at 33,345 vs 32,968 reported wholesale...not much of a difference to be material.

My assessment on China? To quote a fellow member "Bullish AF"

View attachment 694739

Thank you and always well presented. Question do we know if any of the China production in July were the new lower priced Ys and 3s?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Do it with options for not-advice leverage

695 puts sold Friday rebought at 70% profit Monday morning pop

755 calls sold yesterday during pop rebought at over 80% profit this mornings dip (during which I then resold the puts for more than I'd rebought em for yesterday- and which now are themselves already up over 10%...)

I'm going to start doing this with TSLA to the upside and oil stocks to the down. Just not convinced I know what I'm doing yet. I've retired from using real money to learn new-to-me options strategies!

 

[aubreymcfato]

Rob has done a great job explaining the IPCC report and Impact report, which came out on the same day not for chance.
The Tesla twitter account has tweeted some results, but I fear is not enough for reaching a widespread audience.
Elon doesn't really like to tweet about this stuff as much as I'd personally hope, but the Impact report is packed with insights and great information, it's 94 pages!
Not sure if this is something a PR department would manage, but the Impact report itself should be advertised and explained to people, and there should be articles and comparisons between companies.
Sometimes it feels that Tesla does the hard work but stops at the last mile.
If people knew how much Tesla is doing - and at how many different levels - even politics could be easier, at least from the progressive side.
(am I too naive?)

 

[henchman24]

Now do Amazon and you get a sense of where we are headed

Precisely. They are on track to beat 100k Q3 out of Shanghai. That’s the real story.

To quote @The Accountant who Quoted another forum member… Bullish AF

Yup... 100k out of Shanghai + 110k 3/Y from Fremont + 10k S would puts the 220k number right in sight. 10k S is likely 2-3k too much, but Fremont 3/Y might be a touch low. Repeating 220 for the next two quarters has 2021 at 825k. I think that is on the low side for the last half of the year... which I think we all see the upside in 825 as a baseline.