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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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This is an interesting point.

Seriously, the terms conglomerate/, keiretsu-zaibatsu, chaebol all suggest largely unrelated groups of businesses that are connected by some common shareholding and financial interconnections.I have equated these because the terms are all a bit fexible.

Tesla, in my opinion, would not quality because all their businesses build upon a common technological approach, with common customers. Even when Tesla makes acquisitions, such as Grohmann, Maxwell, Hibar and the others Tesla almost immediately integrates them into Tesla operating units, nearly eliminating other customers. Thus I would call Tesla 'a vertically integrated manufacturer of renewable energy products' or something similar. I would not consider Tesla a conglomerate.

I think the 'Tesla discount' arises because of four related issues:
First, high vertical integration is not well understood in the securities industry. The 'just in time' industrial approach essentially constructs assemblers and franchisers. Thus Tesla is not quite plausible to them. NO auto dealers? That takes vertical integration to an entirely new level! No advertising? How si that even possible? (remember the critics don't yet understand the internet, much less 'word-of-mouth via social media)
Second, The defiance of 'status quo' and constant reinvention cause panic attacks in people who are built to understand momentum, not innovation.
Third, The leadership of Tesla, from Elon Musk to many others like Andrej Karpathy and Andrew Baglino have a common trait. They are all Engineers devoted to the pursuit of better technologies. They all speak in something far afield from the PR-accented simple English of securities analysts.
Four, Tesla accounting rules are among the most conservative among public companies but, a huge but, their income recognition policy is unique in the auto industry, their cash flow results in part from a sales process unique in the auto industry. their energy business is different from all others and, to top it all off, they act as an electrical power distributor in multiple ways, none fo which bear any relationship to what 'securities analysts' know.

Put these four together and magic happens. Magic is anathema to securities analysts. To exacerbate this problem the Tesla work is built on something that is described in "management consultant speak" as 'stretch goals'. Still worse is that these 'stretch goals' are dependent on solving previously insoluble problems, offered by Tesla in glorious detail. The detail, however, is incompressible to people who cannot actually understand the not-very-complex Tesla accounting conventions.

So the message is: "if you are bothered by volatility don't buy TSLA". If you're not prepared to fight constant misunderstanding and misrepresentation from ignorant observers, don't buy TSLA.

We do not need conspiracy to explain ignorance of fact. The probable losers in this transition are enthusiastic critics, and facts just confuse them.
In the meantime we can count on the collective acronyms to fight against progress. US only: SEC, NTSB, FTC, NADA, AMM, UAW and so on.
Still, our four leading issues are enough to feed the opponents for a long time to come.
@jbcarioca’s superb post, up to his usual insightful standards, is Required Reading for all who choose to participate in this thread.

As it brings up the topic of keiretsu - the modern-day successor of zaibatsu - I think it necessary to emphasize another key element. These organizations each are structured around a financial entity - almost always a commercial bank - that performs the necessary functions of any bank, but to the specific benefit of the constituent manufacturing and service components of the organization, and which serves as the medium @jbcarioca alluded to in his mention of the crossholding of shares amongst the keiretsu’s components. In Japan - I am far less fluent in the Korean counterparts, their chaebols - these often had begun as trading houses, a function still of extreme importance today.

So, where does Tesla fit in the above? Currently, as @jbcarioca described, hardly at all. Yet it is apparent to me that a keiretsu-like structure could fairly describe the Tesla Inc…..or our “X Corporation” of the near future….and most particularly as one envisages an entity that is instrumental in organizing a Martian colony and, in fact, an entire planet. Trading company? My goodness, yes. Indubitably and of utmost necessity. Financial keystone? Not only just as vital, but one that patently could morph from the still-nascent Tesla automotive insurance arm. Tesla’s also close to unparalleled ease of access to the capital markets plays hand in glove to all this.

I have only three - at the most, four - decades of productive time left. Perhaps it’s time to leave my own wilderness redoubt and get to organizing all this. Mr Musk needs to stay as Chief Innovation Officer, irrespective of whatever words he uses.
 
I can't see much if any connection between a Teslabot and the company's mission ("Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy")

Will they find some way to fit the bot in, or will the mission need to be updated?
I think it is part duty, part opportunity and part another angle for solving transport.

  • re duty: Robots will eventually be built. Better by Elon than Zuckerberg or Bezos or Gates. *Much* better.
  • opportunity: Tesla has built the full stack of tech. The Bot is the logical next step.
  • re. transport: The best part is no part. The best trip is no trip. How much energy do you save by not flying to Rome and walk the streets but having the (local) bot do it instead?
 
My gut agrees with you, BUT reality might be very different. Prototype next year could honestly lead to release Teslabot a year or two afterwords, especially given Tesla's immense skill in building production facilities quickly.

If they reveal a prototype EoY 2022 with the schedule of mass production by mid to end of 2024, then imagine the pre-orders for this!!! And once they would start mass production sales of an actual functional Teslabot would be insane.

I honestly feel the software for a Teslabot would take longer to get ready than the physical production. This is uncharted territory in many ways, so it's a bit hard to fathom how this might play out from a business point of view. That said, Tesla has the expertise & experience to really accomplish it. This has never really happened before.
I agree with you overall, though they might reserve early production for their own, internal use. This would allow them some time to test and refine the robots as well as benefit from the robots’ productive work. Capital efficiency indeed.
 
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Good Twitter thread started by Pierre Ferragu. Worth clicking through and reading his points:


Conclusion:

9 - conclusion: Tesla is years ahead of anyone else for real-world perception A.I. and autonomy, has a fully integrated operation with the highest pace of innovation. Rings a bell? $Tesla is in A.I. EXACTLY where Tesla was in cars in 2011….

10 - The next ten years will be fun to watch!
 
Boston Dynamic robots run through obstacle course. Teslabot looks at the commotion, sits down on a lounge chair, sighs and reads the newspaper.

The BD humanoids are terrifying to many people. I showed my wife the obstacle course video and she said, “Oh hell no. No no no no,” because her mind instantly went to police/defense applications.

And the truth is, if people like Elon and many who work at Tesla and many academics in robotics aren’t providing the leadership on what bots will be like, that’s exactly what we’re going to get. As Elon would say, “That is not the future we want.”
 
I believe the answer is yes. Even low cost employees can be costly when you add in health benefits, 401k, etc.
In addition, robots:
- can work 24/7
- don't take vacation
- don't have sick days
- will work on Holidays
- won't take off 4 months on disability
- won't sue you
- won't demand annual salary increases
- won't be unionized
- won't work from home spending all day on TMC ;)
- will provide consistent quality
- etc

Yes - there is maintenance and investments to upgrade but I can see the cost/benefit analysis working out just as we see automation in factories today taking work away from the low wage worker.

You refer to a high cost robot....so your point is valid; the cost of the robot can't be $1m. I think if would need to be $200k or less at scale.
I’ll use the above as a springboard for suggesting that even the UAW would pause a bit in attempting to organize my proposed octopus bots. DEhumanizing a robot - just in the simple aspect of what it looks like - should be a great way to avoid even the beginnings of such a situation.
 
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@jbcarioca ’s superb post, up to his insightful standards, is Required Reading for all who choose to participate in this thread.

As it brings up the topic of keiretsu - the modern-day successor of zaibatsu - I think it necessary to emphasize another key element. These organizations each are structured around a financial entity - almost always a commercial bank - that performs the necessary functions of any bank, but to the specific benefit of the constituent manufacturing and service components of the organization. In Japan - I am far less fluent in the Korean counterparts - these often had begun as trading houses, a function still of extreme importance today.

So, where does Tesla fit in the above? Currently, as @jbcarioca described, hardly at all. Yet it is apparent to me that a keiretsu-like structure could fairly describe the Tesla Inc…..or our “X Corporation” of the near future….and most particularly as one envisages an entity that is instrumental in organizing a Martian colony and, in fact, entire planet. Trading company? My goodness, yes. Indubitably and of utmost necessity. Financial keystone? Not only just as vital, but one that patently could morph from the still-nascent Tesla automotive insurance arm. Tesla’s also close to unparalleled ease of access to the capita markets plays hand in glove to all this.

I have only three - at the most, four - decades of productive time left. Perhaps it’s time to leave my own wilderness redoubt and get to organizing all this. Mr Musk needs to stay as Chief Innovation Officer, irrespective of whatever words he uses.
Yeah, what I said years ago: Empire.
 
Tesla bot is a logical next step; Solve FSD, and it can be used in applications other than for a passenger vehicle.

There are so many repetitive boring jobs, many of them are in third world manufacturing, but there are still plenty of conveyor belt type jobs where the same item is placed by a human in the same place over and over, and many people choose not to do such boring jobs.
On the flip side, *a lot* of gradually more and more capable Tesla Bots will make a huge dent or even hole in the global human workforce.
What may be considered boring to some may be a livelyhood not easily replaced by another.

Elons talk about Universal Income should not be discounted easily. I think he has thought this through more than one step...
 
The BD humanoids are terrifying to many people. I showed my wife the obstacle course video and she said, “Oh hell no. No no no no,” because her mind instantly went to police/defense applications.

And the truth is, if people like Elon and many who work at Tesla and many academics in robotics aren’t providing the leadership on what bots will be like, that’s exactly what we’re going to get. As Elon would say, “That is not the future we want.”
BD humanoids look like attack bots, like a shrunk down version of Robocain. Definitely doesn't give you that welcome feeling. Tesla robot looks like a house maid, gives you enough trust in it until they ban together and take over the world..lol.

Anyways, not sure how successful this humanoid will be BUT eyes are constantly glued to Tesla with every update because people are generally intrigued or freaked out. Either way this is free advertisement at its finest while recruiting the best AI specialist to help them work on FSD as well as the bot.
 
@jbcarioca ’s superb post, up to his insightful standards, is Required Reading for all who choose to participate in this thread.

As it brings up the topic of keiretsu - the modern-day successor of zaibatsu - I think it necessary to emphasize another key element. These organizations each are structured around a financial entity - almost always a commercial bank - that performs the necessary functions of any bank, but to the specific benefit of the constituent manufacturing and service components of the organization. In Japan - I am far less fluent in the Korean counterparts - these often had begun as trading houses, a function still of extreme importance today.

So, where does Tesla fit in the above? Currently, as @jbcarioca described, hardly at all. Yet it is apparent to me that a keiretsu-like structure could fairly describe the Tesla Inc…..or our “X Corporation” of the near future….and most particularly as one envisages an entity that is instrumental in organizing a Martian colony and, in fact, entire planet. Trading company? My goodness, yes. Indubitably and of utmost necessity. Financial keystone? Not only just as vital, but one that patently could morph from the still-nascent Tesla automotive insurance arm. Tesla’s also close to unparalleled ease of access to the capita markets plays hand in glove to all this.

I have only three - at the most, four - decades of productive time left. Perhaps it’s time to leave my own wilderness redoubt and get to organizing all this. Mr Musk needs to stay as Chief Innovation Officer, irrespective of whatever words he uses.

I had been anticipating an expansion to robots for a few years but whatever this is you are describing never hit my radar. But I now have an interesting lead to consider and perhaps crypto is part of this devilish turn into finance?
 
BTW, don't mean to throw cold water on Tesla's AI potential, but there is a whole class of AI that Tesla (and everyone else for that matter) is NOT doing, and that is real time learning.

Tesla's AI is the "standard" system that trains a huge Neural net for perception and maybe (eventually) end to end control (meaning the network both perceives the world and then interacts with it - right now today, the car is not driven by a neural net, it is driven by complex C++ algorithms. They have a plan towards getting to end to end control). What this means is that the car/robot isn't very flexible for truly novel situations. You have to train the robot for whatever you think it'll see in the world before it can handle it.

Not only that, but it can't learn from novel situations. So the robot/car will only "learn" via monthly or whatever software updates. It can't learn on the spot through generalization.

Does this matter? Well, people will run up against the robot's limitations pretty fast. Kinda like Alexa is fine, but there a real limit to what it can do.

Real time learning is a completely different neural network architecture and one that researchers are only barely exploring right now. It'll be interesting to see how far Tesla and the rest of the industry goes before/if hitting a brick wall of diminishing returns before having to actually tackle it.
You should tweet Elon and let him know.
 
The D1 is special not because it's the fastest, but for Tesla has brought the cost down by 75% vs buying from Nvidia. Not only that they can tailor everything to Dojo and build the software around it.
Elon said "we have succeeded if we turn off our gpu cluster"..meaning decoupling from Nvidia.

okay - that makes sense - but the hole "AI aaS" "Dojo aaS" thing is dead then right? As i.e. google TPUv4 is aaS ready and can be consumed, so there's no groundbreaking AI aaS offering with DoJo-aaS
 
This is a monthly options expiration day, with interest typically greater than an ordinary Friday, but less than on a quarterly (Triple Witching Day). A cursory survey suggests that $680 would be the strike price toward which options writers, with the ability to manipulate the share price, would like to move it. Light trading volume may make that easier for them.
 
I think they can be priced much lower than that. The most expensive part of a tesla vehicle is the battery. At 125 pounds, there aren't many batteries in the robot. Vision can use same cameras as the vehicles. Other parts can be common mass produced components. Then there is the FSD computer. I think Tesla could get a basic robot to under $10,000 with mass production.

The software will be where they make money. Similar to video game console makers, Tesla could sell the robots at cost, or even at a loss, and make money selling software packages. Pick and choose what software licenses you want and it may all or most of it be subscription based.

$9999 for your robot, $200 a month in subscription fees. Could be a wide range depending on the software. Want a general laborer for doing landscaping? If you were paying a human $15 an hour, 40 hours a week, 4 weeks a month that's $2400 a month, not counting overhead.

This will bring to discussion the idea of universal basic income. I realize that is political, but Elon is right. That discussion is going to be needed in the next few years.
10K cost sounds - not too far off.

And since the market can probably sustain 50K per bot for the foreseable future, it is a very nice margin indeed!

Don't know if Tesla should sell them or keep them. In the long term, they should probably, like robo-taxies, keep a lot of them in-house. On the other hand, the bots need to be exposed to the real world in order to become long term viable and improved. Selling them to customers will ensure a wide variety of uses which Tesla themselves would not necessarily come up with.

Also, since they are smaller, not only do they use less material making them cheaper. They take up less factory space, and stack easier for transport.
Better yet, there is a compounding effect in that some of the first robots can help produce the next generation - and so on...
 
As I have said many times, that green guy is a drama queen. He seeks attention. Take a grain of truth and blow it up. He is an half-empty-glass guy. Knowledgeable, but he thinks he knows better. Guys like him are looking for opportunities to say, 'ha ha see, I told ya' even if that stuff is trivial in the end.
Who are you to judge his social skills? Fact is he knows more about the software in the cars except Tesla insiders. That´s what is important to me.
 
I dunno, Warren R. is considered pretty optimistic... now, will that become realistic?

(HODL)

Cheers!
Yeah, I mean, even for crazy optimists, there is a limit to how many robo-cars the world really needs.
However, consider the TAM of work with a good chunk of physical labour - how much is that worth?
What is the next level beyond mind-blowing?

Elon is already there.
Listen to his musing on the state of the economy being basically about labour. What happens if labour becomes *really* cheap? well, then the economy expands, doesn't it? Not by a little but by a lot.

Perhaps, in 40-50 years, when we visit Mars we can laugh about the time when the largest companies were only around 1 Tera dollar worth.