To me this is the single greatest investment Tesla has made. So very glad to see it moving to close.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
In addition to the reasons to not worry that others mentioned, let's not forget that FSD will change everything. Lucid, like all other Tesla competitors, is not prepared.
The MotorTrend reviewer reminded me of someone describing the beauty of a show horse. Cars without FSD will soon be a tiny niche in the transportation market, like show horses.
Wow, that (10) is months ahead of my expectations. I figured we would get the button about January but it may be much sooner.
RobDickinson
Active Member
So this Q
AI day with Bot reveal, Dojo and D1
Fremont supplying CONUSA only now, Model 3 (LR/SR)/Y LR sold out until next year
Austin build going fast
Belin with fewer legal issues and build ongoing
Shanghai with 37k built in July, 1800 a day in August, exporting 14+ ships to Europe and record numbers to Australasia
FSD ongoing and potential beta button before end of the Q
AI day with Bot reveal, Dojo and D1
Fremont supplying CONUSA only now, Model 3 (LR/SR)/Y LR sold out until next year
Austin build going fast
Belin with fewer legal issues and build ongoing
Shanghai with 37k built in July, 1800 a day in August, exporting 14+ ships to Europe and record numbers to Australasia
FSD ongoing and potential beta button before end of the Q
I'm not sure I feel the autonomous taxi market can grow that fast that quickly. It would be amazing if it did though!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
No, they really don't. Stock buybacks are an obvious was to support investors. Even more important, Tesla can divert FCF into the purchase of a Tesla-owned autonomous fleet.
If Tesla scales to produce 10M "Model 1" robotaxis and achieves 30% gross margin, then Tesla can buy 3M Models 1 per year out of FCF, all the while maintaining its profitability based on its other product lines.
This is a simple example. There are other ways to invest capital from profits. The Supercharger network is the best example: Tesla grows fast when they have unallocated FCF, and throttles back when they want to increase profits. The MegaCharger network can work the same way. So can Model 2 (once a single jurisdiction has FSD). Right now, the Bay area is in the lead due to data.
Strategic acquisitions may also be important. If Tesla owned their own ($10B) microchip FAB, they wouldn't be begging for chips while otherwise-finished product gathers dust in some railyard. Personally, I'm watching to see what happens with the new Samsung FAB in Austin, TX.
TL;dr No dividends.
This is well put. I like show horses and there are thousands here in NOVA. Our sustainably harvested fence boards keep them safely in paddocks but I don't ride them to the store. I just like to watch them, very relaxing to watch the neighbors herd of retired horses grazing and socializing. Can't do that with a show car in a garage I guess. So maybe I like show horses a bit more than the soon to be show ICE.
I could see cash buybacks. I could see more factories but not too many more. I could see more battery factories. More superchargers. Huge increase in service- that could eat billions ( i personally don't like all the different vendor battery cells- one vendor it is easy to troubleshoot issues). I still think they are going to print cash with no where to spend it. Maybe they'll start dropping prices.
I am a sceptic of the model 2 creating profit. We'll see. Fo the mission great though.
I think Robotaxi are a better option to support the mission than the Model 2.
It seems the the annual shareholders meeting Oct 7th could be extra interesting.
We have a thread dedicated to that topic where myself and others are pondering that very question:-
Gigafactory locations and products
I wonder if Berlin, Shanghai or at least Austin will have factory tours for owners, post pandemic, like Fremont used to?
teslamotorsclub.com
It isn't a simple one line answer, the deeper you dig, the more complex it is...
In terms of Chinese demand I do view some Chinese companies, in particular BYD, as competitors who will carve out a chunk of market share.,
I also view the Chinese market as price sensitive, that is why it is important for Tesla to offer cheaper cars in China,
The compact Chinese designed car is very important, both for sales in China and worldwide...
I predict expansion of Shanghai, or a new factory to make that model.
I also predict one or more additional factories in China to make the Chinese compact model and the German designed compact model.
It is less clear if Tesla will expand Chinese production of Model 3/Y or make any other models...
If we roll predictions out to 2027-2028 I can see China making more Model Ys and perhaps another slightly larger model.
There is nothing wrong with making cars in China and exporting a high proportion of them... it is a good location for an export hub.
But we when dig into the debate on factory locations, it does get complex and uncertain...
The couple of posts about legacy debt tied to loans got me thinking about financial arms of OEMs and the lack thereof by Tesla.
The way I see it from a very high level, non-technical view, Tesla is getting more miles out of their cash by putting it into R&D and factories then by offering loans to car buyers. Tight legacy margins means it's all about volume so too much cash into R&D would not make sense for them.
Right, wrong? Is financing a small/big slice of the pie? Any other points of interest regarding financing? Is the lack of a finance arm just one more way Tesla is revolutionizing the auto business?
The way I see it from a very high level, non-technical view, Tesla is getting more miles out of their cash by putting it into R&D and factories then by offering loans to car buyers. Tight legacy margins means it's all about volume so too much cash into R&D would not make sense for them.
Right, wrong? Is financing a small/big slice of the pie? Any other points of interest regarding financing? Is the lack of a finance arm just one more way Tesla is revolutionizing the auto business?
True story. After a rough day yesterday my wife sent me and the kids out of the house.
I asked when we should return. She said
"Two weeks"
My brain imploded.
I asked when we should return. She said
"Two weeks"
My brain imploded.
So I guess AV competitors are getting antsy.
Also Ed Niedermeyer obfuscating as usual.
Also Ed Niedermeyer obfuscating as usual.
For it not making sense, they sure do a lot of it. Huge amounts more than does Tesla.
I don't understand how there can be any argument. If the stock is anticipated to accrue at 8%+ and debt is < 8% then Tesla should buyback stock and rely on debt in the case of needing cash. In the worst case scenario which is not the primary expected outcome they reverse and secondary. Long term shareholders even have preferential tax treatment if they need to sell for cash versus dividends. And long term shareholders should be the party of maximum fiduciary optimization as the 'owners'.
The only tactical maneuver I can imagine is acquiring higher debt grade via rating agencies owing to their incompetence if their ratings are based on some silly fixed standard of a low ratio of some value metric vs debt.
The only tactical maneuver I can imagine is acquiring higher debt grade via rating agencies owing to their incompetence if their ratings are based on some silly fixed standard of a low ratio of some value metric vs debt.
This comment is wrong....
Model 2 is a compact car, it will have a smaller perhaps 35 kWh LFP battery.
I predict from and rear castings could be made with smaller 4000 series IDRA casting machines which are cheaper, and may have a higher daily run rate. 1,000 castings per day per machine..
IMO the hard part of a cheaper car is the hardware needed for FSD, my hunch HW4 is not just about increasing performance, they are also aiming to make it cheaper. In fact, I think lower cost and lower energy consumption are the primary HW4 targets. That is because I see no hard evidence Tesla can't get FSD working on HW3.
Finally when we talk about Robotaxis, Model 3 and Model 2 with LFP batteries, are the ideal city Robotaxis, smaller, lower cost, with long life batteries..
In summary Model 2 is designed to hit a price target, Tesla might make a lower margin on higher volumes, but the cars will sell like hotcakes and be ideal Robotaxis in all city environments worldwide. Overall Model 2 should be profitable, and excellent for the mission, it is a very important project.
Yeah, I've gotten some of those. It's an odd admixture. As some of you might have gotten from the user ID, I was pretty active on the old Tesla forums. I miss the camaraderie, but not the trolls who clearly had the run of the place.Thinking about some of the self-driving conversations that have been taking place, and vaguely remembered that Tesla launched a public policy portal earlier this year (Tesla Engage).
“Engage Tesla is a new platform for both Tesla's public policy team and Tesla Owner's Clubs. Its goal is to create a digital home base for all of our work, and make it easier for Tesla community members to learn what's top of mind for us, take meaningful action, and stay in the loop. We hope you'll join us in getting involved.”
Engage Tesla
Engage Tesla is a new platform for both Tesla's public policy team and Tesla Owner's Clubs, providing a digital home base for community and meaningful action.engage.tesla.com
Feel like they could be doing so much more with this portal?
Has anyone received any communication from them? (E.g. targeted emails/messages about local Tesla club events since they have them all in their calendar)
The Engage info.. About 80% of the missives are get-together invites to various watering holes where club members meet face-to-face; old time meet and greet. The other 20%, at least around this area, are what appear to be mentions of various law passing or law suppressing activities. The law passing is typically to allow Tesla to sell cars in one state or another; the law suppressing is about keeping states from passing laws that prevent Tesla from selling cars in one state or another.
And that's about it. Since all the club posts are vetted, apparently, by the club principals, there's no trolling. But there's very little to none in the way of spontaneity. If somebody was having trouble getting some feature or other to work, there's no way to post that question, or to answer it, either. Other than, I guess, showing up at one of the watering holes at their four-times-a-year get-togethers and asking around.
Basically, cleaning up the Forums over there would have required at least one full-time moderator with a serious ban hammer (like the people we got around here), and, pretty clearly, Tesla wasn't willing to go down that path. For whatever reason.
Tesla paying off the convertible notes with cash is anti-dilution and is effectively the same as buying back shares.
Tesla is also production constrained and doesn't really need to offer financing to shift inventory at the required rate...
When we come to Robotaxis this is a lever Tesla can throw, specifically offering more leases at batter rates on cars they want to be future Robotaxis... there is no option to buy the car at the end of the lease. That should excess production or inventory occur in any Models/locations, then leases can help move the stock short term, safe in the knowledge that those cars will return as a future Robotaxi...
IMO this mechanism is superior to designating newly produced cars as Robotaxis, it does need a bit more planning.
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