Anyone else think FSD Beta 10 might be "City Streets" and "Navigate on Autopilot" merged into a single consolidated NN?
If so, that is probably a big leap forward for FSD, and a significant step closer to the final solution.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Anyone else think FSD Beta 10 might be "City Streets" and "Navigate on Autopilot" merged into a single consolidated NN?
If so, that is probably a big leap forward for FSD, and a significant step closer to the final solution.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
ARK provided far too much specific info on why Tesla would succeed, far too early in Tesla's journey to profitability for a rational person to consider it luck. Also, ARK funds have outperformed even if you remove Tesla from them. They have a lot of successful picks that are top holdings and are not Tesla. Maybe if Cathie was a man she might get more credit.
Re: The decline in ICE sales since April, I don't think Cathie was attributing all of it to people realizing ICE is not the future and holding off on purchases, she merely said she thought it was a factor. And I fail to see how it couldn't be at least a factor, the ICE/EV perception in the public discourse has obviously turned.
It helps here to realize that new car buyers are weighted towards people who have more money, more education and probably pay more attention to what's going on in the world. Sure, most new car buyers are not thinking this way yet, Rob is right about that. But to totally dismiss it as not having an effect is not correct either. There are certainly a percentage of new car buyers who are having second thoughts on an ICE purchase considering that every major automaker has announced plans to go electric and multiple Countries and States within those country's have announced ICE sales bans beginning in the not too distant future. Even a small percentage of people thinking longer-term and delaying an ICE purchase they otherwise would have made is going to show up in the numbers.
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Look, I own a Tesla, and I own TSLA stock (profits on such worth multiple Teslas), but what is
she smoking? Google the worth of the taxi industry (now $15 billion in rides, highly fragmented), then
search for a worth estimate of the entire ride-hailing industry including Uber/Lyft etc (Goldman Sachs estimates
$285B by 2030, or 20X current sales).
So now Ms Wood sez that estimate is 20X short, like in the trillions? Where are the ride hailing cities? (In the US
it'd be NY or SF)? I live in SF, and it's a walking town like Manhattan for neighborhood stuff, then it's
subway/BART/bus/taxi/Uber/Lyft for longer distance, then it's your own car if you want instant gratification or to get
out of town. Robotaxi network shakeout? In the trillions of market cap beyond basic city transportation?
I guess "I'll have what she's having", because we surely will only eat at Katz's Deli in the future to the exclusion
of all else!
The new app is beautiful. Love this company.
Carl Raymond
Active Member
They must have done an estimate for the number of people who will switch to ride hail from other modes, such as car ownership.*
It’s like the market for iPads/tablets. 20 years ago everybody would have agreed there was no such market.
edit *also people with own car who will use cheap ride hail when it suits, such as drinking occasions and trips to places where it’s difficult to park.
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I assume they may have concluded most commuter journeys to work will be in Robotaxis, worldwide at sometime in the future..
Even if that is the conclusion, 2025 seems too early, not only for the transition to happen, but for people to be 100% confident the transition will happen, and Tesla will be the dominant player..
I say most commuter journeys because most people will sleep, play a computer game, browse the internet, or read a book, rather than drive the same route every day. Assuming the majority of people are not work-from-home or have another convenient transport option..
They also need Boring Co tunnels to make this work, so everyone piling into cars, doesn't end up in a massive traffic jamb. The I think the majority of people will prefer a Robotaxi journey to public transport, if the cost was roughly comparable, Covid-19 is one thing that will have people preferring to travel alone, or in small groups with people they know. I think we will eventually mostly forget Covid-19, but not for another 5-10 years...
ChefBoyardee
Member
At lower costs the addressable market gets much bigger. A lot more people would ride in a robotaxi for $5 than an Uber or Taxi for $15. Some would even decide not to buy their own car.
I had a coworker who didn’t have a car and took Uber everywhere. I thought that was dumb until he explained that he makes more money by working during the drives than he pays Uber. That type of thing makes even more sense with cheaper rides
Yes that's what "single stack" means.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Just put together a calendar thread for those interested.
I looked up Triple Witching dates (Dec, Mar, Jun and Sep). I was surprised that there is not one in Jan. LEAPs expire Jan, Mar, Jun and Sep. Should I just add the Jan date under LEAP expiry? Why the difference?
I looked up Triple Witching dates (Dec, Mar, Jun and Sep). I was surprised that there is not one in Jan. LEAPs expire Jan, Mar, Jun and Sep. Should I just add the Jan date under LEAP expiry? Why the difference?
Starting with 11 trillion I assume Tesla would comfortably account for 22% of that. That brings us to 2.42 trillion in revenue. Add 20 million in annual vehicle sales at a $31k average sales price and you add 620 billion to come to 3.04 trillion in expected revenue. Since these are my fantasy numbers I've decided a reasonable number of Tesla bots to be produced is 5 million at $20,000 average sales price for an additional 100 billion in revenue.
Conveniently this brings me to a final 2030 revenue target of 3.14 trillion (because I wish to have my pie and eat it too.)
I'd expect growth to taper and a price to sales ratio of about 8 to apply at this point, which leads me to a market cap of 25.12 trillion. At our current share count of 990 million my fantasy price target for 2030 would be $25,373.73
Do I think this is realistic? No. But comparatively it makes my actual 2030 price target of $8,000 seem super reasonable
Why do I not see this on the app store? Mine is updated and the old one.
Edit- had to delete and download fresh. Odd
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Hey, work smart not hard! Now try (in Silicon Valley) a Google/Apple/Genentech bus with leather seats/Wifi for even cheaper vs
a platoon of individual 1-person robocars driving 40 miles in commute traffic. Or even "work-from-home", what a concept.
Now, for the "low-end" support-worker crowd, you really think robotaxis (Tesla or otherwise) will beat out public transportation
over equivalent distances? In SF or London Uber/Lyft is already meeting its match with more road congestion, congestion pricing etc.
Having said that, it's probably LA or Texas where this thesis could prevail, so oh Lord, won't you buy me a ...
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OK, for the sake of argument Tesla gets 20% of 11T revenue at 8X sales. Who gets the other 80% and doStarting with 11 trillion I assume Tesla would comfortably account for 22% of that. That brings us to 2.42 trillion in revenue. Add 20 million in annual vehicle sales at a $31k average sales price and you add 620 billion to come to 3.04 trillion in expected revenue. Since these are my fantasy numbers I've decided a reasonable number of Tesla bots to be produced is 5 million at $20,000 average sales price for an additional 100 billion in revenue.
Conveniently this brings me to a final 2030 revenue target of 3.14 trillion (because I wish to have my pie and eat it too.)
I'd expect growth to taper and a price to sales ratio of about 8 to apply at this point, which leads me to a market cap of 25.12 trillion. At our current share count of 990 million my fantasy price target for 2030 would be $25,373.73
Do I think this is realistic? No. But comparatively it makes my actual 2030 price target of $8,000 seem super reasonable
they get 8X sales, too, or only Tesla? Maybe Apple is in the wrong business after all?!?
There is no way Cathie was seriously suggesting $12 trillion in revenue annually from robotaixs, it only makes sense if she was talking about potential market cap of fleet operators.
So for example lets optimistically say combined market cap being 40x earnings multiple on $300 Billion in combined net income annually on something like $1 trillion in revenue at 30% net profit margin.
The entire global economy is only worth $80 Trillion annually so even after a decade of economic growth there is no way that robotaxis account for ~10% of global GDP.
So for example lets optimistically say combined market cap being 40x earnings multiple on $300 Billion in combined net income annually on something like $1 trillion in revenue at 30% net profit margin.
The entire global economy is only worth $80 Trillion annually so even after a decade of economic growth there is no way that robotaxis account for ~10% of global GDP.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Not a change that growth tapers, with every single manual labor job on earth in a bidding war, as well as most 'professions'.
Then beyond 2030, Robots will be headed into space to mine the asteroid belt:
Quadrillion-Dollar ‘Psyche’ Asteroid Is Even Weirder Than We Thought Say Scientists
As NASA prepares to launch in 2022 to explore asteroid 16 Psyche, new research reveals that it may not be the “failed planet” core that scientists suspected.
www.forbes.com
If anyone thinks Elon isn't working towards this, they are sadly going to miss out.
Cheers!
jeewee3000
Active Member
Agreed on most points.
Only Tesla's profit margin on the Tesla Network ("robotaxis") won't be 30% IMO, but more like 80-90%. Pure SaaS income, minus maybe the fleet maintenance if Tesla maintains its own fleet.
Of course how much revenue Tesla will make depends on many (pricing) factors. So I'd imagine the $300 Billion would be somewhat lower.
mltv
Member
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
TSLA down at the usual ~2x multiple vs macros in the early Pre-market:
15,323.50 -40.75 (-0.27%)
As of 5:32AM EDT. Market open.
Data last updated Aug 26, 2021 05:44 AM ET.
Nasdaq 100 Sep 21 (NQ=F)
CME Delayed Price. Currency in US15,323.50 -40.75 (-0.27%)
As of 5:32AM EDT. Market open.
TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live
This page refreshes every 30 seconds.Data last updated Aug 26, 2021 05:44 AM ET.
| Consolidated Last Sale | $707.86 -3.34 (-0.47%) |
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| Pre-Market Volume | 8,088 |
| Pre-Market High | $710 (04:32:20 AM) |
| Pre-Market Low | $707.33 (04:41:52 AM) |
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