Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[nativewolf]

Wonder what tony seba is thinking on the subject of robotaxis.

All Teslas currently sold in Europe are coming from GF3, including these Model Y's that conveniently turned up in Brussels yesterday while I was visiting the Tesla showroom to show my wife the MY

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And worth noting that already 600 MY delivered in Norway just this week - it's like the Model 3 invasion all over again, Q3 is going to be epic...

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Oh, sorry I meant Chinese manufacturers. Sandy Munro had a board up, in the video with Ford Mache head, and a list of something like 50-60 Chinese EVs/PHEVs companies selling in the EU. I was wondering if any of those are making the list in Belgium? The number of Chinese companies making EVs has exploded of late. We just focus on a couple which may obscure a view of the forest for a few trees.

 

[ZachF]

I agree with the question: why will anyone choose to drive? I just don't agree that Robotaxis will be the answer - globally - to that question.

Robovans, Robominibusses, Robobusses - ideally driving in Boring Tunnels- that I can get behind.

The upper class will probably still own their own cars, the way that they buy $70k+ cars when a $25k car would do just fine.

The biggest beneficiaries will be middle and lower income countries and people. Suddenly large swaths of their populations who couldn't afford transportation with self-owned ICE will be able to afford to purchase robotaxi services. It will be like when cheap cell phones appeared and all of the sudden large swathes of lower/middle income countries could become connected.

 

[jkirkwood001]

...
The MotorTrend reviewer reminded me of someone describing the beauty of a show horse. Cars without FSD will soon be a tiny niche in the transportation market, like show horses.

With all due respect, I think the inevitable ubiquity of FSD is overstated. Not only is it still in development towards being literally a level 5 steering wheel-less car (suitable for the visually impaired, Robotaxi), I don't need it! I have cheaper EAP, use it on the highway all the time, and it still uses the old Highway-only AI which more non-DOJO car companies can duplicate. I don't want a slow, cautious "grandma" driving me to my next appointment - it's too slow! Why did I buy one of the quickest cars on the road if I can't jump in front of a line of traffic from a stop light?

EV ubiquity - yes (@nativewolf).
FSD ubiquity - no IMO.

Until insurance companies charge extra, I think there will be maybe 1/3 to 1/2 who prefer to drive streets themselves and save themselves ~$8,000.

 

[FS_FRA]

The upper class will probably still own their own cars, the way that they buy $70k+ cars when a $25k car would do just fine.

The biggest beneficiaries will be middle and lower income countries and people. Suddenly large swaths of their populations who couldn't afford transportation with self-owned ICE will be able to afford to purchase robotaxi services. It will be like when cheap cell phones appeared and all of the sudden large swathes of lower/middle income countries could become connected.

I disagree on the biggest beneficiaries. But this will drift too far-off topic for this forum, so I will "agree to disagree" and leave it at that.

 

[JustMe]

BMW cEO on CNBC stating that on a global perspective, BMW is growing faster than Tesla. I don’t think so.

Announcing will be building all new vehicle at Spartanburg plant in TN. 5 years in the planning. No details if EV.

Maybe he was talking about their growing debt

BMW Debt to Equity Ratio 2010-2023 | BAMXF

Current and historical debt to equity ratio values for BMW (BAMXF) over the last 10 years. The debt/equity ratio can be defined as a measure of a company's financial leverage calculated by dividing its long-term debt by stockholders' equity. BMW debt/equity for the three months ending September...

www.macrotrends.net

 

[NicoV]

@NicoV So 2-4 are all VW. Berlin should change that. I'm curious if any Chinese cares are showing up in Belgium?

No. AFAIK, zero.
I vaguely remember BYD trying to enter the Belgian market via a deal with a Brussels taxi company some years ago, but that wasn’t a success.

 

[Knightshade]

He also was unsupportive of Sandy's rant. He said it's to be expected that a government agency would look into this new technology, and the Senate investigation that Sandy referenced is not something that exists so far as he knows. He suspects Sandy was thinking of the letter to the FTC.

FWIW I agree with Rob here-- Sandy going on an angry GET OFF MY LAWN rant does a lot less to help the mission than his videos of say comparing the HVAC systems on the Model Y and Mach E- where you can see for yourself how far behind Tesla Ford is, and he drives that home when he mentions Fords system is noticably better than other legacy EV systems.

Regarding the ARK/RT stuff-

I agree with the question: why will anyone choose to drive?

There's little reason for folks in say NYC to want to drive-traffic is insane, parking is expensive as hell, and public transit options are generally quite good in addition to it being a very walkable city... and yet nearly 50% of households own cars anyway.

In the US at least people REALLY like owning their own car.

I agree that can change over time- but a lot longer time than ARK seems to be thinking of (esp. given there's gonna be a while before they're even available to start with).... Others have already addressed the obstacles in many other nations.

The first place you're gonna see RTs impacting car ownership here though is in households that own multiple vehicles- with readily available cheap RTs you'll see 2nd or 3rd household cars just not be replaced as they die off. Folks getting rid of their primary car is going to take a fair bit longer, and be more of a generational change.

 

[kanweg]

Wonder what tony seba is thinking on the subject of robotaxis.

Oh, sorry I meant Chinese manufacturers. Sandy Munro had a board up, in the video with Ford Mache head, and a list of something like 50-60 Chinese EVs/PHEVs companies selling in the EU. I was wondering if any of those are making the list in Belgium? The number of Chinese companies making EVs has exploded of late. We just focus on a couple which may obscure a view of the forest for a few trees.

If you want to know that for the Netherlands, peruse this link for BEVs

Elektrische Auto Kentekenregistraties

Actuele kentekenregistraties elektrische auto's van deze maand en de afgelopen maanden. Bijgewerkt t/m 10 mei 2024

www.kentekenradar.nl

this link is for ICE + BEV

Personenauto Kentekenregistraties

Actuele kentekenregistraties personenauto's van deze maand en de afgelopen maanden. Bijgewerkt t/m 12 april 2024

www.kentekenradar.nl

wrt robotaxis. No driver saves a seat and female clients may feel more safe in the car (but perhaps not outside it).

 

[Unpilot]

On the subject of total cars produced and sold. It seems to me this number will continue to decline. First of course robotaxi....but also the fact a well made EV (Tesla) lasts a far bit longer than an ICE.

One more reason legacy car manufacturers are dead.

 

[juanmedina]

It seems that Tesla has a Model S Plaid at the Nürburgring right now but it crashed. Hopefully it wasn't that bad and they have backups.

Tesla and BMW Crashes Foiled a Corvette Z06 Nurburgring Lap Attempt

 

[JustMe]

According to supercharge.info, construction is now underway at the first locations in Lithuania and Alaska this week.

coincidence?

Draw your own conclusions

 

[nativewolf]

FWIW I agree with Rob here-- Sandy going on an angry GET OFF MY LAWN rant does a lot less to help the mission than his videos of say comparing the HVAC systems on the Model Y and Mach E- where you can see for yourself how far behind Tesla Ford is, and he drives that home when he mentions Fords system is noticably better than other legacy EV systems.

Regarding the ARK/RT stuff-



There's little reason for folks in say NYC to want to drive-traffic is insane, parking is expensive as hell, and public transit options are generally quite good in addition to it being a very walkable city... and yet nearly 50% of households own cars anyway.

In the US at least people REALLY like owning their own car.

I agree that can change over time- but a lot longer time than ARK seems to be thinking of (esp. given there's gonna be a while before they're even available to start with).... Others have already addressed the obstacles in many other nations.

The first place you're gonna see RTs impacting car ownership here though is in households that own multiple vehicles- with readily available cheap RTs you'll see 2nd or 3rd household cars just not be replaced as they die off. Folks getting rid of their primary car is going to take a fair bit longer, and be more of a generational change.

Tony Seba and crew at rethink are largely aligned with Ark on the speed of the transition. They also spitballed 2021 as the year that transportation as a service begins. Free presentation and very well done but like any prognostication it might be off here and there but the key themes are on point I think.

https://tonyseba.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/RethinkingTransportation_May_FINAL-LRR.pdf

he believes it is a 10 year transition period to the point that oil assets are stranded, pipelines stranded, volumes of cars sold plummets, gains in GDP and losses in wages and gains in disposable incomes. Transition first in the US then EU and North Asia then world. I only just looked it up as I was fairly convinced that the destruction of the automobile sector is nigh. Not just because of EVs themselves but because of things like the robotaxi will eliminate sales on a grand scale. I was thinking that loss in the grand volume of sales could have a startling impact, didn't really think about the fact it could strand millions of used car sales. I think one could take a long term short on Carmax and do pretty well, bet it is cheap. Not sure how far out in the future you can short a stock. I'd like to bet now on Carmax being down in 4 years.

 

[CreativeName]

where you can see for yourself how far behind Tesla Ford is,

yikes. I saw Tesla Ford and was afraid this message was from a future that went horribly wrong

 

[UkNorthampton]

No. AFAIK, zero.
I vaguely remember BYD trying to enter the Belgian market via a deal with a Brussels taxi company some years ago, but that wasn’t a success.

A few are/soon to launch in Norway.

One I hear most of is MG, ZSEV and MG5 (which is an Estate/Station Wagon, only one I know of). MG starting to do long range versions.

I use EV Database

Quick scan shows these Chinese OEMs (brands): MG, Geely (Volvo, Polestar), Byton (maybe!).

 

[BornToFly]

Regarding the competition and their batteries. My friend's tenants in Oregon had bought an Audi e-tron. After one year it had lost 20% of it's 200 mile range, and Audi had to buy the car back.

 

[Singuy]

Regarding the competition and their batteries. My friend's tenants in Oregon had bought an Audi e-tron. After one year it had lost 20% of it's 200 mile range, and Audi had to buy the car back.

Whoa, any sleuths out there see more cases on this in message forums?

 

[Ipcress]

I just cobbled this together and sent this to my senator--every little bit helps.

Dear Senator Markey,

I'm very disappointed in seeing you championing this investigation. Currently 100 men, women and children die in traffic accidents every day. About 35,000-40,000 per year. In that context, do you still feel strongly about holding back the company that produces the safest cars on the planet? To me it looks more like politics than a real concern about safety. The eleven incidents cited in news reports are also reported to have involved DUI, unlicensed drivers or distracted drivers abusing the system--not paying attention in various ways. All of the ADA level 2 systems available today are capable of being abused by users--and without doubt are. Surely there are better uses of your and Senate time than to investigate these 11 incidents.

On another matter, it is worth noting that Tesla is the most American auto company--the most USA content, of any of the Big three, yet is being ignored by the Biden administration on their recent summit, Stellantis isn't even a USA-based company. I hope the administration's support for BEV's subsidies does not extend to hybrid cars. This would doom the big three US auto industry, and give Tesla, VW and China the entire EV market. I'd hate to see all of the union jobs disappear, and including hybrids in the tax credits will ensure that, while doing little to reverse climate change.

Thanks for listening,

 

[22522]

It seems that Tesla has a Model S Plaid at the Nürburgring right now but it crashed. Hopefully it wasn't that bad and they have backups.

Tesla and BMW Crashes Foiled a Corvette Z06 Nurburgring Lap Attempt

I wonder about linearity of tire behavior on a heavy car with that much power. (and keeping the rear tires planted in corners)

 

[redan]

Shanghai starts MY SR deliveries:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1430796200677036036

 

[nativewolf]

FWIW I like Seba but I also recall his presentation where he tried to convince folks we transitioned from horses to cars in like 13 years based on one comparison of NYC parade pictures.

The transition in most of the nation took a couple of generations... and even in NYC horses remained in common use for decades after that second "look! it's almost all cars!" parade picture.

In the same video he cites Dysons investment into batteries and EVs as an example of how easy it will be for everyone to make EVs... Dyson of course famously abandoned this effort because it turns out it's actually pretty hard.

Same video he also says we'll have 200+ mile range EVs costing 25k by... 2021. This year. And 20k 200+ mile EVs in 2022.

And BTW he specifically says those prices are without any government subsidies.

All his ideas are very solid- but he's a bit optimistic on actual timelines.

Which sounds familiar

He fits right in at TMC. Well horses were present in NYC 13 years later but far far less common, by 30 years after that photo there were hardly any. For a trend spotter I'd say that's a good photo to illustrate change.

I will point out that we do have 200 mile range EVs costing $25k. That's sold in China today, not sure about the subsidy but yes they exist. The new nissan leaf is $27k and up and has a 150-225 mile range. That's in the USA. Again, he's not very far off. I bet I could get a Leaf for 25k and 200 mile range. The nissan leaf is very compelling for someone needing a grocery car and can charge at home.