Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Don't think anyone posted this but some production update from Gali's sources (rumor mill)

TLDR

1. 4680 ~6 months away

2. Current production yield through assembly is 70-80% up from 20% a year ago.

3.GF Austin/Berlin will start with 2170.

4. Roller denting issue is the current culprit

5. Good cells are being used in some storage products.

 

[Lessmog]

Elon Musk's water filters for schools in Flint are almost ready

Elon Musk donated $480,000 to fund new water filtration systems for Flint, Michigan schools following the city's infamous water crisis.

www.google.com

“Elon Musk donated $480,000 in 2018 to fund new filtration systems for schools and administrative buildings in Flint, Michigan. Almost three years later, they're in the final stages of production, flint beat reports.“

“The next step is to connect the filters to the district's plumbing and test the water coming out of the fountains for lead and other bacteria.”

Nice to see some positive coverage of Elon’s efforts to make the world a better place.

Is the Business Insider writer from Flint MI by any chance?
Still, nice positive reporting (for a change). Hats off for that!

Edit to clarify:
it said testing for "lead and other bacteria"

 

[Lessmog]

Property tax on the asset and that will be priced at whatever the price is for someone buying one (FSD enabled vehicle price- say 50,000) maybe 1% property tax so a $5k/bill per car per year, plus business license and all the other vehicle fees. - another 1% of revenue, etc etc. On and on. As someone said. Cars pay a huge amount of tax, commercial vehicles even more. Robotaxis will have to make up that difference if they displace ICEs. Someone has to pay for roads.

I could see courts having to let judges go, marginal lawyers having to find a new profession, etc. Plus of course losing all those ticket writers. Going to be interesting.

Bad math? You righting for Sucking @ Alfabet?
1 % of 50k looks like 500 to me? Wright?

 

[Artful Dodger]

So are we ready for the capping at 715?

Did the FED meeting produce any news yet?

 

[The Accountant]

Huh I guess I very much disagree with James Stephenson here:

- logistics costs will be lower in Q3 thanks to all US production not going on ships
- all Tesla’s on ships now are the ones made out of China which have better margin.
- China SR Model Y doesn’t mean less margin, just less revenue per car. Fundamentally, as long as Giga China produces more in Q3 than Q2, earnings will be higher from Giga China
- credit revenue was at a 2 year low for Q2, much more likely that it goes back up to its average which is about 100 million more than Q2
- we also have the report to that Tesla received 400 million in Chinese ev credits in Q3 from their 2020 sales

As for why I think Q3 earnings will be potentially 50% higher

- 30-40k more deliveries
- 10k more S sales
- model S margins go from negative in Q2 to very positive
- 400 million Chinese ev credit ls
- 2-3k in price hikes taking affect in Q3 that we’re not there on Q2
- better logistics efficiency due to al Europe deliveries coming from China
- continual improvement in margins for energy and services

. . . .and to think that with all the upheaval in the auto industry this year, Tesla posted its best margins ever in Q2.....and the jump was huge 22% to 25.8%

The Q2 Auto Margins of 25.8% excluding Reg Credits is truly remarkable. And this was with the negative margins contributed by the Model S (due to limited deliveries). I am expecting the 25.8% number to improve in Q3 and Q4.

 

[Unpilot]

So are we ready for the capping at 715?

Did the FED meeting produce any news yet?


View attachment 702030

There is your capping right now.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So are we ready for the capping at 715?

Did the FED meeting produce any news yet?

Inflation will be transitory. Rates fall. TSLA good?

 

[Lessmog]

There is your capping right now.

Impressive timing, Lodger!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So are we ready for the capping at 715?

Did the FED meeting produce any news yet?


View attachment 702030

Don't you just love knowing that the Nasdaq could go up 2-3% today and there would still be no way Tesla ends above 710

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

. . . .and to think that with all the upheaval in the auto industry this year, Tesla posted its best margins ever in Q2.....and the jump was huge 22% to 25.8%
View attachment 702027
The Q2 Auto Margins of 25.8% excluding Reg Credits is truly remarkable. And this was with the negative margins contributed by the Model S (due to limited deliveries). I am expecting the 25.8% number to improve in Q3 and Q4.

Exactly......there were so many negative hits to Tesla margins/efficiency in Q2 and they still hit 25.8% excluding credits.

I mean a lot of people were thinking Tesla was going to get hit hard by logistics and parts costs increases because some of those things are real-time in terms of effecting in the quarter while the price hikes hadn't taken effect yet( since all deliveries in Q2 were orders before price hikes) and yet they still hit that margin. Crazy level of efficiency and being nimble on their feet.

Part of me thinks earnings could surprise even stronger that I'm anticipating because the logistic and parts supply issues are masking Tesla's true efficiency. I think Fremont for example could be in store for a big production expansion when parts supply allows it. The GigaPresses are not being used to their full power yet.

 

[Artful Dodger]

There is your capping right now.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The reboot would follow the daily life of a Tesla investor in 2021......

 

[AZRI11]

Algos start selling at resistance ($714) we need humans to start buying to break free of this trading channel.

 

[TheWalkingDad]

I guess markets loves consistency. Powell gave no timeline on tapering and continues to insist on inflation being transitory citing stabilization of used car prices. Carry on.

 

[goinfraftw]

I don't know who made this spreadsheet of upcoming tesla events, but it was highly informative. Any reason why it has stopped being updated as of April 25th 2021?

 

[Singuy]

Don't you just love knowing that the Nasdaq could go up 2-3% today and there would still be no way Tesla ends above 710

So what is the reason MM picks on Tesla mainly? I have other high growth tech stocks and doesn't have as much capping as Tsla and they are also high volume known names with lots of option contracts being sold/bought. AMD being an example, which is known as the original meme stock so it has plenty of popularity. Also MM is not capping meme stocks in general. Way more money gets traded via Tesla than AMC and we see that stock going all over the place without any sort of control by MM.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Algos start selling at resistance ($714) we need humans to start buying to break free of this trading channel.

That's just MM's pushing down SP to max pain of $700 for today's close. Super low volume so it's done fairly easily. Same thing last week.

Not advice, but last Friday purchasing $700 calls for the following week as SP was closing around $680 was very profitable.

Fairly simple premise that MM's will push SP down at the end of the week then have to unwind that short position the following Mon/Tues. Buy Friday, sell Mon/Tues. Easy peasy......until it isn't of course.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Here we go again....

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So what is the reason MM picks on Tesla mainly? I have other high growth tech stocks and doesn't have as much capping as Tsla and they are also high volume known names with lots of option contracts being sold/bought. AMD being an example, which is known as the original meme stock so it has plenty of popularity. Also MM is not capping meme stocks in general. Way more money gets traded via Tesla than AMC and we see that stock going all over the place without any sort of control by MM.

MM's can't control SP of a stock like AMC whose price is usually based purely on if there's a tiny amount of float available, or a teeny tiny amount, or less than zero sometimes.

With super low volume and shares available to trade, MM's can afford to naked short TSLA to make sure they optimize their weekly gains on options contracts. They'll lose a bit unwinding next week, but it's net profitable.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So what is the reason MM picks on Tesla mainly? I have other high growth tech stocks and doesn't have as much capping as Tsla and they are also high volume known names with lots of option contracts being sold/bought. AMD being an example, which is known as the original meme stock so it has plenty of popularity. Also MM is not capping meme stocks in general. Way more money gets traded via Tesla than AMC and we see that stock going all over the place without any sort of control by MM.

I'm pretty sure the volume and activity when it comes to options is exponentially higher in TSLA than any other stock. Much bigger financial incentive.

Also, while Tesla absolutely deserves to have a P/E of I think 500 right now considering how they're growing earnings exponentially more than revenue and revenue itself is growing leaps and bounds.......by Tesla have a high P/E of 370'ish, it opens the stock up to more easy manipulation. Stocks of companies that have matured and thus their P/E multiples are much lower, AMD for example has a P/E of 39, are much harder to manipulate because there's less room for them to push the P/E multiple around.

Remember there's a ton of funds out there that have rules over not being able to buy positions in stocks with P/E's higher than 100, some even can't buy in higher than a P/E of 50. So there's much more money that will consistently buy in that limits any manipulation.