Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

I somehow have a feeling they base their valuation on capital already raised. So they already eating 10bln investment. Those investors need a certain return: 5x - 10x. (so let's pick a random number between these 8). So the 80bln. Nothing to do with how many cars they sold

I think a 10s of billion dollars of valuation are based on the current climate of governmental support from all major countries with the largest car market and the demand for such cars.

I think people forgot that back in 2012, it was a question if people actually wanted electric cars or not and how big that market would be. Deadlines for the end of ICE era were not set back then, while a lot of major countries have set today in additional to severe carbon penalty for companies subjecting to EV credit penalties. This is most likely the reason why no EV companies IPO for what Tesla Ipoed at even without revenue.

So Tesla paved the way and answered a lot of uncertainties. These questions below were very much debatable and heavily leaned toward NO a decade ago. Remember the higher the uncertainty, the higher the return(also higher the risk).

1. Can electric cars be profitable? YES
2. Is there a demand for electric cars? YES
3. Is the government helping the push toward EVs? YES
4. Is climate change really a big deal? Yes because everything is on fire or flooded.

 

[mltv]

Rivian Seeks $80 Billion Valuation In IPO

The company has plans for an IPO at the start of the holiday season, but hasn't delivered a vehicle to a customer yet.

jalopnik.com

This article cites November 25th as the Rivian IPO date.

Imagine if Elon decides to have some fun and announces a split / share dividend the same day.

I prefer Elon just flood the market with CyberTruck next year. Show production

 

[Zero CO2]

Meanwhile.....

View attachment 702021

i love that Elon misspelled Bezos ... typo ? Nope

 

[Discoducky]

70 to 80% yield info (taken with a grain of salt) of automotive grade 4680's is still music to my ears. Gali has some pretty deep contacts as the level of what he is talking about is most likely beyond his engineering understanding, but he is describing it as if he does. Maybe he'll get The Limiting Factor channel (Jordan) on to talk.

 

[Singuy]

70 to 80% yield info (taken with a grain of salt) of automotive grade 4680's is still music to my ears. Gali has some pretty deep contacts as the level of what he is talking about is most likely beyond his engineering understanding, but he is describing it as if he does. Maybe he'll get The Limiting Factor channel (Jordan) on to talk.

Tho I feel like the roller denting issue was talked about on the ER conference call. Didn't sound like new info to me.

 

[woodisgood]

The looks are super weird and I hate to admit 'growing on me' but I'm firmly in the camp that Tesla will sell these like hot cakes as the specs and price are far and away better than anything including the Ford or Rivian offering...

2022 sales of >50k and >200k in 2023 is my target

Is that because you think Tesla will only be able to ramp to 50K in 2022?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Toyota halts all self-driving e-Palette vehicles after Olympic village accident

Toyota Motor (7203.T) said on Friday it had suspended all self-driving e-Palette transportation pods at the Tokyo Paralympic Games village, a day after one of the vehicles collided with and injured a visually impaired pedestrian.

www.reuters.com

TL: DR

According to Toyota:

 

[Tslynk67]

That's just MM's pushing down SP to max pain of $700 for today's close. Super low volume so it's done fairly easily. Same thing last week.

Not advice, but last Friday purchasing $700 calls for the following week as SP was closing around $680 was very profitable.

Fairly simple premise that MM's will push SP down at the end of the week then have to unwind that short position the following Mon/Tues. Buy Friday, sell Mon/Tues. Easy peasy......until it isn't of course.

Purchasing calls is rarely profitable, selling calls however, yields profits (mostly) on a weekly basis...

If you insist on throwing money away, do it with low premiums - 1/10 will work out and it you're really lucky, the sum will be profitable

Special events, like stock splits and index inclusions are the jokers...

Not an advice, do you own due-diligence, nada, nada...

 

[Discoducky]

Is that because you think Tesla will only be able to ramp to 50K in 2022?

My target is minimum 50k in 2022 for CT due to production ramp constraints.

 

[Discoducky]

Tho I feel like the roller denting issue was talked about on the ER conference call. Didn't sound like new info to me.

Ah, thanks, that explains it, I didn't get a chance to listen to the whole earnings call.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1431360363963027457

It would seem as though the test Model Y's are in production at #GigaTexas! This photo was posted publicly, I won't link to it in case they weren't supposed to share

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1431360363963027457

This certainly makes it seem like Giga Texas made Model Y's will start deliveries in October. But maybe even late September is a possibility, at least for the first batch from initial production? Though they'll would probably hold any MIT Y deliveries to beginning of Oct.

If this were the case, you'd then have to expect that Giga Texas will make at least 20,000 Model Y's for Q4, but it could be significantly higher than that. Between Giga China continued expansion (should be at 50k a month starting in Oct), are we looking at a 275k or more Q4? I mean......300k does become a possibility.

Something like -

Giga China - 150k
Fremont - 110k
Texas - 30k
Berlin - 10k

Get's us to the 300k number.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Apricot.com had MPain at $700

Where did you get your "effective max pain" price. thx

Dodger has been saying the real sticking point is MaxPain + $5-$10 which looks solid to me. The flat part of the puts/calls curve is pretty wide, so best to have a good margin of error over the “official MaxPain” number IMO.

 

[CLK350]

Ego can be a powerful motivator.

The problem with most folks with too much money and not enough life experience is that they insulate themselves with go-betweeners /servants who filter their version of reality. The go-betweeners need to keep their jobs and status, suing is a natural extension for that situation: reassuring the boss that he's right, and keeping their fat retainers.
Elon doesn't have this issue, he's worked his way up starting with low paying and even dangerous jobs with less than a thousand $ in his pocket. Unlike Besos, Gatos , Trumpos, Bidos etc

[OT] I was born with that proverbial silver spoon, even was told in the midst of wars was once dropped on the battlefield .. got to the right schools, jobs, burned out and crashed a couple times. Turns out in my experience happiness is (totally) uncorrelated with wealth, and I can see in retrospect how some folks considered me an insufferable PIA, hah ha. Some of my friends who started poor and slogged hard are now uber rich, but alas not so happy and somewhat stingy and not too healthy. Some are really stuffy and seemingly happy.
A few got the right balance and are fun to hang out with. I'm the proverbial above average fellow, and ordered recently a Model Y because I really appreciate good tech, plus great cause etc. My "problem" is going to be justifying the purchase hah hah ha - am sure will find a good way. Doesn't matter either way, my TSLA gains paid for it.

 

[AudubonB]

i love that Elon misspelled Bezos ... typo ? Nope

Aah, but what an Opportunity Lost.

Were I for whatever reason to succumb to a desire to name He Who Otherwise Isn’t, my fat fingers just might produce “Bezoar”.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

I don't know that to believe anymore.......this certainly makes it seem like Giga Texas made Model Y's will start deliveries in October. But maybe even late September is a possibility, at least for the first batch from initial production?

If you look at the background, it is clear that there is little in the way of installed production equipment. The general assembly line is probably almost entirely manual. I think after the initial over-automation of the Model 3 ramp, they are starting with very low rate manual production and adding automation a bit at a time.

It is also possible that general assembly starts with car bodies from Fremont, so does not depend on body-in-white and paintshop working.

If this were the case, you'd then have to expect that Giga Texas will make at least 20,000 Model Y's for Q4, but it could be significantly higher than that. Between Giga China continued expansion (should be at 50k a month starting in Oct), are we looking at a 275k or more Q4?

I'm hoping for 30k Model Y in Q4, (probably too optimistic). I'm also expecting continued expansion in Shanghai (some of the fill-in buildings, better utilisation of BiW space due to castings) so production might be up to 180k for Q4 and from Fremont about 110k (another GA line, better use of BiW space due to castings). So total of 320k.

 

[Singuy]

So the autonomous car was in manual mode with an operator accidentally bumped into a visually impaired individual going 1-2km/hr. The headlines however are all over with Mr. Toyota stating autonomous cars are not ready for the road. WTF is this nonsense? Is Toyota getting so desperate that they are willing to sabotage themselves just to get government to scrutinize autonomous vehicles more?

Toyota halts all self-driving e-Palette vehicles after Olympic village accident

Toyota Motor said on Friday it had suspended all self-driving e-Palette transportation pods at the Tokyo Paralympic Games village, a day after one of the vehicles collided with and injured a visually impaired pedestrian. In a YouTube video, Toyota Chief Executive Akio Toyoda apologized for the...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[2daMoon]

i love that Elon misspelled Bezos ... typo ? Nope

Next time it might be the E that gets swapped for another vowel, keeping the Z ...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

If you look at the background, it is clear that there is little in the way of installed production equipment. The general assembly line is probably almost entirely manual. I think after the initial over-automation of the Model 3 ramp, they are starting with very low rate manual production and adding automation a bit at a time.

It is also possible that general assembly starts with car bodies from Fremont, so does not depend on body-in-white and paintshop working.



I'm hoping for 30k Model Y in Q4, (probably too optimistic). I'm also expecting continued expansion in Shanghai (some of the fill-in buildings, better utilisation of BiW space due to castings) so production might be up to 180k for Q4 and from Fremont about 110k (another GA line, better use of BiW space due to castings). So total of 320k.

I'd have to disagree on your take about the production/assembly lines. From that vantage point and considering we don't know the layout of the lines, can't make any call on that. Also, remember on the earnings deck, Tesla showed the Texas Body Shop complete with working robots and the stamping press as operational. And we know 100% that the Gigapresses are operational. I think I also remember a report of the paint shop already doing testing and that was a couple weeks ago.

https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/ZBOUYO_TSLA_Q2_2021_Update_DJCVNJ.pdf?xseo=&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%22q2_2021.pdf%22

Agree about Fremont, but your Giga China production expansion is even more bullish than I'm willing to be

 

[woodisgood]

So the autonomous car was in manual mode with an operator accidentally bumped into a visually impaired individual going 1-2km/hr. The headlines however are all over with Mr. Toyota stating autonomous cars are not ready for the road. WTF is this nonsense? Is Toyota getting so desperate that they are willing to sabotage themselves just to get government to scrutinize autonomous vehicles more?

Toyota halts all self-driving e-Palette vehicles after Olympic village accident

Toyota Motor said on Friday it had suspended all self-driving e-Palette transportation pods at the Tokyo Paralympic Games village, a day after one of the vehicles collided with and injured a visually impaired pedestrian. In a YouTube video, Toyota Chief Executive Akio Toyoda apologized for the...

finance.yahoo.com

Now you’re sounding like the tinfoil hatters you often critique…

But yes, Mr. Toyoda was a little quick to reveal his agenda, dontcha think?