Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

Also the fact that they’re already planning on putting money into a 2nd factory is a huge red flag to me.

For a company with no sales yet and no experience mass producing EV’s, could easily be a fatal decision if a cash crunch happens

It also tells me they put a lot of emphasis on hype and maintaining which is another red flag

With Amazon as a perpetual "customer", building out a second factory likely won't hurt. All they need to do is start building Amazon delivery trucks, maybe have AMZN lean on FedEx and UPS to buy from Rivian as well.

I could see them being one of the success stories filling in the market gaps where Tesla doesn't have offerings. Tech won't be anywhere in the same galaxy as Tesla, but it doesn't have to be.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Nah, ignoring the calculated max pain number and actually looking at the graph, it'll be a close of 709

The folks here have convinced me this is usually the case. But I've seen plenty of times were volume was so low they just went for the literal max pain figure anyway. I think this might be one of those days.

Hell, if I'm a MM algo I'm perfectly happy getting a jumpstart on next week's 5% (edit) 2% higher max pain as well. If it's easy...why not?

 

[Unpilot]

I can see Bezos throwing money at Rivian like crazy....because of his desire to be like Elon.
I mean, he can't get a spacecraft to orbit, so he sues SpaceX

 

[TheWalkingDad]

With Amazon as a perpetual "customer", building out a second factory likely won't hurt. All they need to do is start building Amazon delivery trucks, maybe have AMZN lean on FedEx and UPS to buy from Rivian as well.

I could see them being one of the success stories filling in the market gaps where Tesla doesn't have offerings. Tech won't be anywhere in the same galaxy as Tesla, but it doesn't have to be.

I could foresee a possible Amazon aquisition. Bezos needs to diversify from the lawsuits strategy right? How else are they going to catch up?

 

[WattsHappening]

Guilty!

I put in an order to purchase at $701, expecting the MMs to do their thing today.

But I'm definitely experiencing some FOMO myself. Really torn between FOMO and self-discipline.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

With Amazon as a perpetual "customer", building out a second factory likely won't hurt. All they need to do is start building Amazon delivery trucks, maybe have AMZN lean on FedEx and UPS to buy from Rivian as well.

I could see them being one of the success stories filling in the market gaps where Tesla doesn't have offerings. Tech won't be anywhere in the same galaxy as Tesla, but it doesn't have to be.

Don't get me wrong, I think Rivian has more of a chance to survive and do well than say Ford. I just see it as a completely unnecessary risk, especially in today's environment with supply shortages. Some might think "Oh they only need a very small amount of chips, they'll have no issue getting those" but that's not how it works with suppliers. They're going to give their chips and parts supply to the one that will commit to large order buys and especially large future order supplies.

And while Amazon can provide them liquidity in a cash crunch, if they start to stumble with their production in a big way, even Amazon might walk away. I'm hoping they reverse course and say they're putting off the 2nd factory for at least a year. I think it will be what's best for them.

Edit: Sorry no more replies/responses about Rivian/Off Topic

 

[NicoV]

Current consumer/retail pricing is edging towards averages of €0.35 / kWh - $0.42 / kWh with no relevant TOU, net metering etc. options to make driving an EV reasonably cheaper than gas. Base exchange price is €0.048 - $0.058, so that's €0.30 or 87% of taxes/levies/surcharges !

That’s only slightly more expensive than in Flanders. The energy cost is the same as yours (due to the shared european energy market), and 80% of the price is taxes etc. Arriving at a price nearing 30 cents per kWh.

 

[viridi]

Very large sell order (22,500) just prevented TSLA from going over $715.

 

[NicoV]

The next Tesla is Tesla.

So true!

 

[Motor Mouth]

Ignorant investors are looking for "the next Tesla," not realizing that Tesla has just started growing. They don't understand that FSD and other AI will change everything.

Tesla is a firmly rooted seedling that now can't be stopped. Rivian is a seed with high risk of never sprouting. The next Tesla is Tesla.

And the next Amazon?

A: Also Tesla.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

If we generously assume that Rivian has amassed 40,000 pre-orders, that values each pre-order at $2 million. Of course that's not a valid method to value an IPO. Tesla was valued at $1.7 billion at the IPO. So Rivian is being valued as 47 IPO Tesla's? And they don't even have the first-mover advantage?

Now Tesla is the dominate EV manufacturer with a huge lead in EV technology, software, AI, energy storage and energy production and TSLA market cap is just over 700 Billion. So Rivian thinks nine Rivians at $80 Billion each is worth more than the real deal?

Two words (well one word and one acronym) come to mind when reading your analysis: Inflation and SPAC's

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1431297650050043905

Here's another screenshot to save and put with the others of CNBC outright lying about numbers. Not even remotely real numbers for GM, VW, or BMW.

Somehow I don't think it's going to be that hard to show market manipulation on CNBC's half after a year or two of screengrabs

 

[Artful Dodger]

I put in an order to purchase at $701, expecting the MMs to do their thing today.

But I'm definitely experiencing some FOMO myself. Really torn between FOMO and self-discipline.

4/17/2021 Revised Edition | Apr 9, 2021 MC: PPM #104

"Lodger's Ten Rules for Investment Success": (c) 2021 - 3rd Revised Edition

1. Time is your Friend; Emotion is your Enemy (Math is your Ally)
2. Stocks cycle through their Trading Channel in 4-6 wks; Practice Patience
3. Buy Half and Sell Half; There will be more Opportunities

HTH.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Very large sell order (22,500) just prevented TSLA from going over $715.

Kenny Griffin eats that for breakfast! Or more accurately....brunch. (<---Friday MMD jokes allowed?)

 

[st_lopes]

You have access to the hen that lays golden eggs! Do you know how rare it is to find a TSLAQ that still has money and is willing to risk it betting against Tesla?

This rare creature only comes about when someone has been highly bullish on Tesla then suddenly flips.

P.S. That said, I'm not that bullish on your three bets on the whole (assuming these are even odds bets), especially #2 and #3. One problem with bet #3 is you assume the risk that 2030 is a down year for vehicle sales. Tesla could sell over 20M vehicles in 2029 and you could still lose the bet. I'm wondering if he isn't playing you for profit by making outrageously bearish comments on Tesla to get your confidence high enough that he can get you to agree to bets that are not worded all that favorably. If he's really bearish on Tesla (to the point of shorting them) you should have been able to get him to agree to much more favorable bets. Hopefully these are just fun, pocket change, bets.

More a friendly wager with loser buying dinner. Three dinners on the line and he’s a former (and prospective) client, so losing would still be a win. Not to mention, if only 2 of 3 play out, I’ll be very happy with the stock price outcomes.

 

[UncaNed]

Textbook case of FOMO.

My LEAP-buying FOMO is tempered by my expectations that SEP 2023's might show up on the option chain... maybe Monday-ish?

 

[woodisgood]

Not going to link it, but Fredtrek has a story about a Toyota autonomous vehicle colliding with an athlete at the Paralympic Games. Quote from Toyota CEO says, "This shows autonomous vehicles are not yet realistic for normal roads."

Uh yeah. Maybe YOUR AVs are not yet realistic...

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

I can see Bezos throwing money at Rivian like crazy....because of his desire to be like Elon.
I mean, he can't get a spacecraft to orbit, so he sues SpaceX

Ego can be a powerful motivator.

 

[ZeApelido]

Rivian will have the same valuation Tesla had in Dec 2019, when producing almost 400k vehicles / yr, 2 profitable quarters in a row, risk of bankruptcy greatly reduced, Shanghai factory almost going online, Model Y 1 quarter away from production, etc...

So yeah, basically the same

 

[MikeAtkinson]

A reminder why Tesla's mission is so important:

Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increased severity of mental illness, according to the most comprehensive study of its kind.

The research, involving 13,000 people in London, found that a relatively small increase in exposure to nitrogen dioxide led to a 32% increase in the risk of needing community-based treatment and an 18% increase in the risk of being admitted to hospital.

Air pollution linked to more severe mental illness – study

Exclusive: research finds small rise in exposure to air pollution leads to higher risk of needing treatment

www.theguardian.com

Recent research has shown that small increases in air pollution are linked to significant rises in depression and anxiety. It has also linked dirty air to increased suicides and indicated that growing up in polluted places increases the risk of mental disorders. Other research has found that air pollution causes a “huge” reduction in intelligence and is linked to dementia. A global review in 2019 concluded that air pollution may be damaging every organ in the human body.