Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

With such low volume, it looks like the MMs are going to beat $TSLA down as close to max-pain (715) as possible today. I still see us ending somewhere in the 720-725 channel. Other thoughts?

The one laughing member of TMC is aging this post like fine wine today.

 

[rallykeeper]

I find the pessimism around Model S production rates to be bizarre. Tesla was able to make 2,400 Model S in just 4 weeks time in June. Just at that rate alone, Tesla should be able to make 12,000. I've seen zero actual evidence of the Model S lines being down at any point in Q3. Just people's fears driving their views. I go off on data and numbers. Remember people CONVINCED themselves that Tesla was only going to delivery a couple hundred Model S's for Q2 and they ended up doing 1,500 deliveries.

12000 (+/- 1000) seems doable.

Old-fashioned VIN counting should still work with Model S. Deliveries scheduled for this weekend are getting VINs around 440###. First deliveries were 430###.

1500 of those 10k cars produced were delivered in Q2, so that's ~8500 potentially delivered through this weekend.

Even with some of the usual issues, it seems like Tesla should be able to deliver another 3500 cars in the next 4 weeks.

Production remains a variable here as we don't know whether Tesla's current run-rate is, but remember they've never produced more than about 1200 MS/week and it seems unlikely that they've planned for a rate at much higher level than that. Therefore, parts shortages could easily be an issue (we also know that some Model S deliveries are come with due bills for accessories that were out of stock -- if Tesla runs out of something more essential due to a supply hiccup, we may end up closer to 10k deliveries than 12k).

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The one laughing member of TMC is aging this post like fine wine today.

Nah, don't be surprised when it's brought back up to 729 by close. Remember this was telecasted in the first hour of trading on Monday when the stock was moving up and a series of sell orders flooded in with volume to stop the rise right at 730. Back on Monday morning, I called 729 for the close for this week, feeling pretty confident in that lol.......I wish I wasn't so confident

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

12000 (+/- 1000) seems doable.

Old-fashioned VIN counting should still work with Model S. Deliveries scheduled for this weekend are getting VINs around 440###. First deliveries were 430###.

1500 of those 10k cars produced were delivered in Q2, so that's ~8500 potentially delivered through this weekend.

Even with some of the usual issues, it seems like Tesla should be able to deliver another 3500 cars in the next 4 weeks.

Production remains a variable here as we don't know whether Tesla's current run-rate is, but remember they've never produced more than about 1200 MS/week and it seems unlikely that they've planned for a rate at much higher level than that. Therefore, parts shortages could easily be an issue (we also know that some Model S deliveries are come with due bills for accessories that were out of stock -- if Tesla runs out of something more essential due to a supply hiccup, we may end up closer to 10k deliveries than 12k).

The Model S/X share the same line. Since there's no Model X in production right now, the theoretical limit for Model S is about 25k a quarter. If they add another shift, it could go up to 30k. Not saying Q3 will be anywhere close to that. But Elon already said they're planning on adding another shift to the S/X lines once they get production running smoothly.

 

[InTheShadows]

Haha, perhaps if an XBox controller had dual opposing potentiometers to prevent unintended acceleration...

The software could do that using the accelerometers in the car to negate the ones in the controller. Really all you would need would be any modern gaming controller. Using the joystick to steer would be fine too.

 

[StealthP3D]

And this is the last episode of the Texas ‘sales ban’ story, which we’ve heard at least five times already over the last few years, and which has now turned into a one-on-one discussion that may be continued via PM.

Please don't suggest it be continued in private messages! I already stated it was my final reply to such silliness!

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm optimistic about FSD in general, but there is a 0% chance that you would never need a steering wheel or pedals anytime in the near to moderate future.

Don't worry, they plan to put the emergency steering wheel tucked neatly inside the spare tire.

 

[wipster]

I don't think you'll see many go from CT to Lightning or Rivian, since Lightning & Rivian will likely take even longer to spin up manufacturing, and their production numbers will probably be quite low for awhile.

Not to mention the recalls...

 

[rallykeeper]

The Model S/X share the same line. Since there's no Model X in production right now, the theoretical limit for Model S is about 25k a quarter. If they add another shift, it could go up to 30k. Not saying Q3 will be anywhere close to that. But Elon already said they're planning on adding another shift to the S/X lines once they get production running smoothly.

Totally agree that line capacity could go higher, but that doesn't necessarily apply to all parts on Model S. X and S share a lot of components, but not everything. The accessory shortage might indicate that Tesla doesn't have a lot of cushion in their Model S specific parts inventory.

Moreover, and I can't believe I'm saying this, we don't know the demand picture for Model S. Historically, it's possible that Tesla viewed Model S demand at about 50k per year since they never increased the lines above that rate and order times were relatively short pre-pandemic.

Of course, it could be that Model S was always supply-constrained and Tesla simply decided to dedicate resources toward 3/Y. Now, they may be aiming for some higher level of production.

All in all, I agree with your expectations for the quarter -- just wanted to tamper any expectations that Model S would exceed 12K deliveries in any material way (to overall deliveries). I hope I'm wrong of course...

 

[SN_8]

Plot twist: What if @StarFoxisDown! and the others that have a knack for calling the eow closing price are actually the market makers, and they're just here for laughs and to get meaningless internet points?

"On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog market maker."

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Totally agree that line capacity could go higher, but that doesn't necessarily apply to all parts on Model S. X and S share a lot of components, but not everything. The accessory shortage might indicate that Tesla doesn't have a lot of cushion in their Model S specific parts inventory.

Moreover, and I can't believe I'm saying this, we don't know the demand picture for Model S. Historically, it's possible that Tesla viewed Model S demand at about 50k per year since they never increased the lines above that rate and order times were relatively short pre-pandemic.

Of course, it could be that Model S was always supply-constrained and Tesla simply decided to dedicate resources toward 3/Y. Now, they may be aiming for some higher level of production.

All in all, I agree with your expectations for the quarter -- just wanted to tamper any expectations that Model S would exceed 12K deliveries in any material way (to overall deliveries). I hope I'm wrong of course...

Agreed, I definitely do not think anyone should be expecting more than 12k P/D of the S for Q3 and I think 10k should be the expectation with an upside to 12k

 

[jerry33]

Moreover, and I can't believe I'm saying this, we don't know the demand picture for Model S.

Shouldn't be hard. Add Mercedes S Class and BMW 7 series sales together, subtract 10% for brand loyalists, and you get S+X demand. Edit: Only in the countries where Tesla has a presence.

 

[Unpilot]

Plot twist: What if @StarFoxisDown! and the others that have a knack for calling the eow closing price are actually the market makers, and they're just here for laughs and to get meaningless internet points?

"On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog market maker."

I for one am rooting for the M and M's to be wrong...and burned to the ground like the trash they are.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I for one am rooting for the M and M's to be wrong...and burned to the ground like the trash they are.

Honestly, while I really enjoyed the gains I got in 2020, I equally enjoyed the fact that MM's were continually blown up time after time with each rally throughout the year.

2020 - A New Hope
2021 - Empire Strikes Back (MM's obviously being the Empire)
2022 - Return of the Jedi ?

 

[ggies07]

Now that Tesla is stable and a well known brand with the young folk, I wonder if these CEOs and mid-level managers of legacy OEM that have kids tell them they can't get a Tesla.....oh man, what a bitch that would be. Hahahaha. That's a whole new level of teenage angst right there!

 

[Jack6591]

I have claimed that Tesla sells plenty of cars to Texans, as a response to those who claim "you can't buy a Tesla car in Texas" and would appreciate it if you didn't twist what I wrote as if it were the opposite.

You have my agreement that it is not a level playing field. I offered examples of how Tesla and supporters can eek out some advantage within the framework of the stupid statutes, until they are changed. You appear to think what was written meant something else.

Sure, once the statutes are changed Tesla will have equal footing, however, that is not the map we are working with today. You seem to think that spreading inaccuracies is okay in the interim. I think that curbing the FUD drama might be a better option, until the statutes can be changed. My point is there are other available choices that don't involve spreading inaccuracies that undermine Tesla sales.

Special interest groups who have lobbied for protectionist legislation will always fight to keep it. Is this supposed to be news? The question should be what can be done until that can be addressed to inform the uninformed who have been exposed to misleading information regarding their ability to purchase a Tesla in Texas (and other states that still have these draconian laws)?

Every word I have provided agrees the existing statute disadvantages Tesla and other Online Purchase schemes for EVs. You write as if you think I am arguing otherwise.

Everything you have written is on the same page as what I had hoped to convey. Only, what you offer stops short of agreeing that there are methods which can be implemented to promote the legislation being changed while educating potential customers about the problem. Thus, leading them to both own a Tesla AND share their voice about the Dealer Cartel needing to have their advantages curtailed in order to level the playing field. Legislative change won't happen until the congress-critters feel it is in their best interest to do so. Having an informed constituency is one way to alter their position on the matter.

Barring a "special session" the next opportunity to change the legislation is in 2013. Those who disagree appear to believe that sitting on our hands and complaining, while parroting FUD is a better option over acting in that time to share the facts in order to better inform those interested in Tesla ownership and the company's goals.

Bottom line remains how continuing to propagate the narrative that a Tesla car cannot be purchased in Texas may not be the most effective method to achieve the desired result. It is a sound-bite based on falsehood casually tossed about where further detail would serve better towards getting the statute changed.

When wanting to sway someone's opinion it is generally best to not begin by lying to them.

Rather than perpetuating falsehood that helps those who lobbied for protectionist laws maintain their advantage, instead,

Explain how the Texas Dealer Association long ago successfully lobbied for a statute that prevents an OEM from eliminating the middle-man by opening their own store and selling their product directly to a customer and explain how a customer can get around it.

This is all I am suggesting and I don't understand the significant push-back coming from folks who I thought would be aligned with promoting Tesla's ability to sell product in order to raise the share price.

I have every confidence that the good folks in Texas will do everything they can to support “free markets.” It’s an American thing.

 

[Krugerrand]

I for one am rooting for the M and M's to be wrong...and burned to the ground like the trash they are.

Get off my lawn!

 

[Todd Burch]

Looks like two pairs of MMs are having a pissing match today. Which will win?

 

[jw934]

@ChrisDungeon tweeted an excellent point on a possibility that I have not thought of - that eventually Tesla will likely make FSD available to all OEMs by subscription only, including Tesla buyers.

Tesla has shown a history of this possibility with Supercharging and the Premium Connectivity package, the latter of which requiring the $10 monthly fee starting on Jan 1, 2020 and cars purchased prior to July 1, 2018 grandfathered to lifetime subscription.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1433833959465570309

 

[JRP3]

Umm - Did Anyone Notice What's Happening in Europe?
For the countries where August data is available thus far, deliveries for the first 2 months are up 55% over Q2's first 2 months.
We are still missing Germany and the UK (2 of the largest EU markets); I expect the 55% growth to drop when these 2 markets report but the trend looks great so far.
Model Y is driving much of this.

Anton Wahlman crawled out of hiding today on SA with this gem: "Tesla's Global EV Market Share Fell 21% So Far In 2021"