ZachF
Active Member
$2.1b would put the annualized quarterly PE at under 100!
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
$2.1b would put the annualized quarterly PE at under 100!
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Received a notice from IBKR, looks like the "Sell" numbers are dwindling.
It is the similar cycle to the last few weeks. Cap as much as possible at an attainable level to contain a breakout and pivot for next week. Let it breathe a bit on the first day of trading while finding a new place to cap. The elephant in the room is a breakout from mid April is just a couple percent away at this point. If the momentum continues, the algos and TA traders will have big breakout bets coming in. Next week is lining up to breakout beyond 776 and become a battle for 800. From Q3 deliveries to Q3 earnings, is lining up for a push to ATHs.
Fate loves irony. "Buffet to buy 100 million of Tesla shares as he now sees the company as a value play." -Bloomberg 2022Earnings growth is so fast if the share price doesn't climb soon it will start attracting value investors
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
That will be a good day to watch the ticker, won't it?
The Accountant
Active Member
mickificki
Member
Cult Member
Born on the 4th of July
This guy sounds really well put together.
Pezpunk
Active Member
ok, but that's what he said about version 9, and smart summon.
lafrisbee
Active Member
haha? really..OK then while we play the game...
Not if all the cars made in Berlin will leave the Gigafactory individually using FSD through various Boring tunnels.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
How do these Net Income targets affect the 2018 CEO Compensation milestones? ie: would any EBITDA and/or Revenue milestones become more likely to be acheived, moving the expense accrual forward? TIA.
Cheers!
Hi all - I have been a lurker since 2018, shortly after I bought my first Tesla shares. I have been wanting to pay a little back to this awesome community, and I think I have finally found something that might actually be useful to you all 
If I am lucky @The Accountant might get something useful out of this for his estimates
For some time I have wanted to take a shot at the following question, that I have not seen discussed yet in this forum:
What is the actual gross margin for Tesla for every new auto production increase today?
TL;DR: This is a long post, so for the lazy ones - every additional MIC Model Y production might at this point have a gross margin of 40% or even higher!! The result is an earnings increase of $1,5 billion in 2021Q3 that is going straight down into the GAAP income. Read on to see why, if you think this sounds bogus
The Pierre Farragu interview by Rob Maurer got me thinking about this question. It was spurred by Pierre talking about the effect of the incremental increase in productivity as we go to newer versions of the giga factories. Fremont profit margin is really bad compared to Shanghai, and Berlin & Austin is going to have an even better profit margin that Shanghai.
As most of the production increase we see today is happening in Shanghai, we cannot really use the current average automotive profit margins, when we want to estimate how production increase is going to affect future profits. This is due to the current 28.4% automotive gross margin being a mix of the not so good margin from Fremont and the quite better margin from Shanghai (also the Y vs 3 margin is in effect here as new production is mostly Y).
To try and get closer to an answer to this question, we can compare some of the numbers from the last couple of quarters. This can hopefully give us an idea of the profit margin for new production capacity created in the last quarters, which have primarily been from Shanghai.
We can then apply this profit margin to the estimated 2021Q3 sales. So let's go!
First we need an estimate of the 2021Q3 production. Here is my guess on where we will end up:
These numbers might even be conservative, as the LFP batteries now shipped to Fremont from China might actually lead to a significant increase in Fremont 3/Y production and thus sales. Also the S numbers can easily be higher. Finally the 4 days without production in Shanghai September could even make the China Oct numbers conservative as well.
PS: Sorry to all the US people - my version of Excel is set to Danish, so "," and "." is switched around - please forgive me
The following data used is all coming from Tesla Investor Relations
The following table shows for the last 5 quarters:
The numbers for 2021Q2 is then used to estimate how the above guestimate of 251,623 2021Q3 car sales will affect the revenue and profits:
(Mil) means millions. The orange boxes contains the input used to estimate Q3 numbers. Car sales is from above and revenue & profit increase is using the Q2 numbers.
When looking at the numbers there's a couple of thing to keep in mind. On top of my head the following unknowns is affecting the average profit increase:
Points of interest:
Conclusion:
Given that
This alone is not enough for a profit increase of 30,000 for each extra car sale, and I believe that Tesla needs to keep finding savings on their existing production to stay at these numbers of profit increase per extra car sales.
Just like 2021Q1 had Fremont model Y gigacasting come online, and Q2 had the radar removal for all US (now every car made in Fremont!!). Q3 is the quarter where Model S sales is starting for real instead of being an expense. This could help stay above the 30,000 profit increase per extra car sales. In addition FSD city street driving would help a lot if it can make it in Q3.
If we hit the calculated 1.5 billion $ increase in profit for 2021Q3 then automotive gross profit ends up close to 4.5 billion and thus Income from operations somewhere between 2.5-3 billion. This is going to add roughly $1.5 GAAP EPS, placing us around $2.5 in total for Q3- way way higher than wall street is "estimating". The truth might be somewhere below this estimate - this is just one take to try and get an idea of where we might be heading.
When Berlin and Austin comes online, Tesla is going to be rolling in cash - I expect 40% margin from those giga factories pretty soon in the ramp up process with both back and front using gigacasting!!.
Car manufactures not using gigacasting is going to go out of business real soon - they simply cannot compete on price once we reach the point where every car sold is an electric car and they have to fight Tesla on pricing.
If I am lucky @The Accountant might get something useful out of this for his estimates For some time I have wanted to take a shot at the following question, that I have not seen discussed yet in this forum:
What is the actual gross margin for Tesla for every new auto production increase today?
TL;DR: This is a long post, so for the lazy ones - every additional MIC Model Y production might at this point have a gross margin of 40% or even higher!! The result is an earnings increase of $1,5 billion in 2021Q3 that is going straight down into the GAAP income. Read on to see why, if you think this sounds bogus
The Pierre Farragu interview by Rob Maurer got me thinking about this question. It was spurred by Pierre talking about the effect of the incremental increase in productivity as we go to newer versions of the giga factories. Fremont profit margin is really bad compared to Shanghai, and Berlin & Austin is going to have an even better profit margin that Shanghai.
As most of the production increase we see today is happening in Shanghai, we cannot really use the current average automotive profit margins, when we want to estimate how production increase is going to affect future profits. This is due to the current 28.4% automotive gross margin being a mix of the not so good margin from Fremont and the quite better margin from Shanghai (also the Y vs 3 margin is in effect here as new production is mostly Y).
To try and get closer to an answer to this question, we can compare some of the numbers from the last couple of quarters. This can hopefully give us an idea of the profit margin for new production capacity created in the last quarters, which have primarily been from Shanghai.
We can then apply this profit margin to the estimated 2021Q3 sales. So let's go!
First we need an estimate of the 2021Q3 production. Here is my guess on where we will end up:
| 2021Q3 car sales estimate | ||
| China Aug | 32,968 | Actual |
| China Sep | 44,264 | Actual |
| China Oct | 50,000 | Estimated |
| Fremont 3/Y | 114,391 | Same as Q2 (From Troy) |
| Fremont S | 10,000 | Estimated |
| Total | 251,623 |
PS: Sorry to all the US people - my version of Excel is set to Danish, so "," and "." is switched around - please forgive me
The following data used is all coming from Tesla Investor Relations
The following table shows for the last 5 quarters:
- Automotive revenue
- Automotive profit
- Automotive sales
The numbers for 2021Q2 is then used to estimate how the above guestimate of 251,623 2021Q3 car sales will affect the revenue and profits:
(Mil) means millions. The orange boxes contains the input used to estimate Q3 numbers. Car sales is from above and revenue & profit increase is using the Q2 numbers.
When looking at the numbers there's a couple of thing to keep in mind. On top of my head the following unknowns is affecting the average profit increase:
- Quarterly differences in new savings on a "per car" basis increases profit for every car / some cars sold and not just the new cars (i.e. removal of radar in all US 3/Y sales that had full effect for the first time in 2021Q2).
- Large one time negative expenses such as the Y stamping upgrade in Fremont and the S/X production line refresh (This is why the profit increase per extra car sales for 2020Q4 is so low - gigantic one time expenses).
Points of interest:
- Throughout 2021 the profit increase for each additional car sold has been above $30.000.
- If 2021Q3 profit increase turns out as calculated then it is a crazy 1.5 billion $ increase in profit for Q3 (marked with red in the table).
- Question is, can Tesla keep finding savings for every car made that matches what was seen in 2021Q1 (model Y stamping savings) & Q2 (US radar removal savings)? Maybe the revival of the Model S can do it for Q3! But some fleet wide savings might also be needed in order to stay above the 30,000 profit increase per additional car in Q3. Navigate on city streets for FSD could be one such thing if it gets out before Q3 end.
- The revenue increase from 2021Q1 to 2021Q2 is a staggering $73,293 for each new extra car sold… numbers don't lie but there must be something hidden in plain sight in this number - especially since regulatory credits is reduced over this period. Maybe a strong switch from model 3 to model Y as well as going towards long range versions. This could cause a significant part of this revenue increase to come from the "existing production capacity".
- Revenue fell in 2021Q1, due to the lack of model S and X, but profit still grew nicely - most likely due to the implementation of gigacasting for model Y in Fremont having full effect this quarter for the first time.
- If we expect revenue increase per extra car sales to be closer to 50,000 in Q3 (I do not expect that ~70,000 is something that can keep on happening) and profit increase to still be around 30,000 then we would see a gross margin of 60%... This really sounds to crazy even in my mind.
Conclusion:
Given that
- Gross margin is better in Shanghai than Fremont
- The Model Y sells for more than the Model 3, yet costs less to produce
- Each incremental car produced on the same equipment is cheaper to produce than the previous
This alone is not enough for a profit increase of 30,000 for each extra car sale, and I believe that Tesla needs to keep finding savings on their existing production to stay at these numbers of profit increase per extra car sales.
Just like 2021Q1 had Fremont model Y gigacasting come online, and Q2 had the radar removal for all US (now every car made in Fremont!!). Q3 is the quarter where Model S sales is starting for real instead of being an expense. This could help stay above the 30,000 profit increase per extra car sales. In addition FSD city street driving would help a lot if it can make it in Q3.
If we hit the calculated 1.5 billion $ increase in profit for 2021Q3 then automotive gross profit ends up close to 4.5 billion and thus Income from operations somewhere between 2.5-3 billion. This is going to add roughly $1.5 GAAP EPS, placing us around $2.5 in total for Q3- way way higher than wall street is "estimating". The truth might be somewhere below this estimate - this is just one take to try and get an idea of where we might be heading.
When Berlin and Austin comes online, Tesla is going to be rolling in cash - I expect 40% margin from those giga factories pretty soon in the ramp up process with both back and front using gigacasting!!.
Car manufactures not using gigacasting is going to go out of business real soon - they simply cannot compete on price once we reach the point where every car sold is an electric car and they have to fight Tesla on pricing.
Granted Rob was just being broad and not putting much thought into, but his remarks about Q4 seemed way off. If Giga China does 50k for September, then we should expect 150-155k out of Giga China for Q4. Plus additional ramp of S/X lines from 10,000 to 20,000 out of Fremont, which would mean Fremont will do about 125-130k. Then if Berlin/Texas just cranks out 10,000 vehicles each in Q4, we're 300k for Q4. I could see a scenario where Berlin/Texas production for Q4 is purposely held till Q1 for accounting purpose, especially Berlin.
So I'm personally estimating 910-935k P/D for 2021.
The Accountant
Active Member
I now expect
- Tranche 10 to become Probable in this Quarter (Q3)
- Tranche 11 to become Probable next Quarter (Q4)
- and the final Tranche 12 in Q2 2022
See details here:
Near-future quarterly financial projections
Since we're stuck with reporting GAAP EPS to the SEC, can we examine the effect of the TSLA SP on Elon's CEO Comp expense? Am I correct that the amnt that Telsa claims in SBC expense varies with the SP at the time the expense is booked? Ie: Tesla must claim the cost of the shares at current...
teslamotorsclub.com
So essentially a broken growth story as they can't get to 1 million/S
I was curious how this calculation would look going further back in time, so here it is in case anyone is interested. I'm using deliveries instead of production because delivery numbers were easier to find.
| Quarter | Revenue | Deliveries | R/D |
| Q2 2021 | $11,960,000,000 | 201,250 | $59,429 |
| Q1 2021 | $10,390,000,000 | 184,800 | $56,223 |
| Q4 2020 | $10,740,000,000 | 179,757 | $59,747 |
| Q3 2020 | $8,771,000,000 | 139,300 | $62,965 |
| Q2 2020 | $6,036,000,000 | 90,650 | $66,586 |
| Q1 2020 | $5,985,000,000 | 88,400 | $67,704 |
| Q4 2019 | $7,384,000,000 | 112,095 | $65,873 |
| Q3 2019 | $6,303,000,000 | 97,186 | $64,855 |
| Q2 2019 | $6,350,000,000 | 95,356 | $66,593 |
| Q1 2019 | $4,541,000,000 | 63,019 | $72,058 |
| Q4 2018 | $7,226,000,000 | 90,966 | $79,436 |
| Q3 2018 | $6,824,000,000 | 83,500 | $81,725 |
| Q2 2018 | $4,002,000,000 | 40,768 | $98,165 |
| Q1 2018 | $3,409,000,000 | 29,997 | $113,645 |
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