Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

No need. The cap will be eliminated retroactively for vehicles sold after May 24, 2021. Then on Jan 1st, 2022 a new scheme will take effect.

Not sure if I'm understanding what you're saying correctly.

Are you saying that the existing cap that Tesla already hit years ago for EV's sold after May 24th, 2021 will be eliminated and that Tesla's sold between May 24th and Dec 31st 2021 will get the $7,500 EV credit? I've heard/read nothing about that in the current new legislation being worked out right now.

 

[Knightshade]

.

Not sure if I'm understanding what you're saying correctly.

Are you saying that the existing cap that Tesla already hit years ago for EV's sold after May 24th, 2021 will be eliminated and that Tesla's sold between May 24th and Dec 31st 2021 will get the $7,500 EV credit? I've heard/read nothing about that in the current new legislation being worked out right now.

They are speculating.

There's been half a dozen or more different "proposed" new EV tax credits.

Some were retroactive to varying degrees. Some were not.

Nobody actually knows what the final one, if there'll be one at all, will say.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Thanks to a streak of winning 11 out of 14, team Tesla is now 3 games above .500. On 8/30 they hit .500 for the first time since 5/4. It really looks like they are turning their season around even if today they rested the starters and took a double digit loss.

I added a new season stat that shows the current price / 52 week high. Currently they are at about 82% of the 52 week high.

One stat that surprises me is that after 173 games, their average margin and victory (17.01) and average margin of defeat (17.03) are almost identical.

It's also interesting that their highest above .500 is 8 games (January), and their lowest below .500 is also 8 games (July)

Today
Score:	736.27
Margin of W/L:	-18.59
Attendance:	15,184,170
High - Low:	28.09
Season
Record:	88-85
Total margin of wins:	1,496.76
Total margin of losses:	-1,447.57
YTD gain/loss:	49.19	6.97%
Price/52 week high	81.77%
Best Win:	110.58	Mar 9
Worst Loss:	-68.83	Jan 11
Last 10:	7-3
Streak:	L1
Avg margin of victory:	17.01
Avg margin of defeat:	-17.03
Avg Attendance:	17,873,566
Avg Attendance of Last 10:	16,534,970
Avg High - Low:	30.65
Avg H - L of Last 10:	15.93

 

[CLK350]

Fremont firing on all cylinders, not enough to satisfy the demand - Europe gobbling all Model Y's landing from Giga Shanghai. Meanwhile Ford / GM et al cutting production, how long will Wall Street keep TSLA's stock price down ? [ Answer: as long as they possibly can, meanwhile making profits from uneducated 'investors' caught in their fabricated up / down gyrations]

Ca 9/10/2021 8:30 PM ET: " Estimated delivery dates for new US Model Y LR and Model 3 SR+ orders has changed from January 2022 to now February 2022. Model 3 LR is now December (from Nov)."

 

[dhrivnak]

Are you a speculator or an investor? If the former, timing is everything, if the latter, time in the market beats trying to time the market.

If you are lucky you will have both.

Investor, as I plan to keep for years unless they start doing things I do not approve of, of which I doubt.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Not sure if I'm understanding what you're saying correctly.

Are you saying that the existing cap that Tesla already hit years ago for EV's sold after May 24th, 2021 will be eliminated and that Tesla's sold between May 24th and Dec 31st 2021 will get the $7,500 EV credit? I've heard/read nothing about that in the current new legislation being worked out right now.

It was discussed here extensively at the time (May 2021). Perhaps you missed it?

The Clean Energy for America Act and Its Potential Impact on ...​

https://www.voltequity.com › post › the-clean-energy-f...

May 28, 2021 — In sum: the 200,000 cap removal would be retroactive and applied to Tesla cars bought after May 24, 2021. A $7,500 tax credit would apply to ...​

 

[Artful Dodger]

Text of Elon's email to Tesla employee's 2021/09/09:

Vehicle Deliveries

Elon Musk 2:27 PM
To Everybody ...

The end of quarter delivery wave is unusually high this
time, as we suffered (like the whole industry) from
extremely severe parts shortages earlier this quarter.
This meant building a lot of cars with missing parts that
needed to be added later. I'd like to thank all the Tesla
techs and contractors that helped add back the missing
parts, often in very difficult conditions. You rock!

And we are for sure dying to reduce the size of the end
of quarter delivery wave! The goal is to do so in Q4
(allowing some Q4 production to spill over to delivery in
Q1). However, early Q3 production was so challenging
that we need to go super hardcore to make up for it over
the next ~22 days to ensure a decent Q3 delivery
number. This is the biggest wave in Tesla history, but we
got to get it done.

Much appreciated,

Elon

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Text of Elon's email to Tesla employee's 2021/09/09:

I'm glad they're looking at eliminating the wave. It makes me nervous that he is talking about a "decent Q3 delivery number" rather than a record one. Sandbagging perhaps?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

It was discussed here extensively at the time (May 2021). Perhaps you missed it?

The Clean Energy for America Act and Its Potential Impact on ...​

https://www.voltequity.com › post › the-clean-energy-f...

May 28, 2021 — In sum: the 200,000 cap removal would be retroactive and applied to Tesla cars bought after May 24, 2021. A $7,500 tax credit would apply to ...​

Yup looks like I missed that part.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm glad they're looking at eliminating the wave. It makes me nervous that he is talking about a "decent Q3 delivery number" rather than a record one. Sandbagging perhaps?

Lol! Sandbagging? More like trolling da shortzes. Deliveries will be off the chain. Tesla has bags of time left to get all these cars delivered before the end of Q3.

From the Fremont Flyover videos, the partially-completed cars seemed to be restricted to refreshed Models S. Perhaps @gabeincal could comment on whether that big batch of product has shipped now?

The big takeaway from this email (which Booburg somehow missed) is that early Q3 cars have now been completed and just deliveries remain, which Tesla is now well equiped to do with their streamlined, touchless delivery system (and an Army of owner/volunteers).

Good times ahead!

Cheers!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm glad they're looking at eliminating the wave. It makes me nervous that he is talking about a "decent Q3 delivery number" rather than a record one. Sandbagging perhaps?

Just gotta remember context. We don't know if Elon is sandbagging or what his target was for Q3. Could be 250k was his target and he only consider 230-240k "decent".

It's these kinds of situations where you just gotta look at the data

- Giga china P/D is going to be about 25k higher than Q2 with potential for 30k more.
- We've seen no evidence of Fremont factory having downtime and I haven't even heard rumors of Fremont lines being down for even for a couple days this quarter.
- Giga Nevada has been running max production all quarter making batteries
- And even then, they still imported MIC battery packs to have further output from Fremont.

All the data points to Fremont production being at the same level or in fact higher production than Q2.

 

[jw934]

Sale volume of Model 3 Performance in China must be doing well. Tesla just raised the price by 10,000 RMB, or about 2.5%

https://twitter.com/x/status/1436501330776973318

 

[scaesare]

More free advertising for Tesla. Model S and X in this new high budget Pepsi ad.

"It's electrifying!"

-Danny Zuko

 

[scaesare]

I like macaroons. Except the ones that are dumb and stupid.

 

[AZRI11]

.



They are speculating.

There's been half a dozen or more different "proposed" new EV tax credits.

Some were retroactive to varying degrees. Some were not.

Nobody actually knows what the final one, if there'll be one at all, will say.

Have a feeling that won't happen. That was a gift for GM. Not sure they can take advantage of that now.

 

[dhanson865]

The NM store and service center that opened Sept 9 was built on the site of a failed casino. Money and jobs.

If money and jobs were the only considerations this video wouldn't exist

 

[Opus BC fan]

My neighbor says his Y is ready but he is not picking it up because he is waiting for the budget to pass. '$10k difference!' Hope they deliver it to somebody else.

My plaid has been assigned a VIN today and will be delivered between 9/18 & 9/24.
I think TSLA will be going plaid about that time also...

 

[Beltsbear]

It was discussed here extensively at the time (May 2021). Perhaps you missed it?

The Clean Energy for America Act and Its Potential Impact on ...​

https://www.voltequity.com › post › the-clean-energy-f...

May 28, 2021 — In sum: the 200,000 cap removal would be retroactive and applied to Tesla cars bought after May 24, 2021. A $7,500 tax credit would apply to ...​

That was May. The bill has been held up months. When the bill is finally published, they will change that date. It might be retro to Sept 1'st. It might be retro to the day of the bill. But it is VERY unlikely to remain back dated to March. That mostly would benefit Tesla, and politicians are not preferential to that.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Just gotta remember context. We don't know if Elon is sandbagging or what his target was for Q3. Could be 250k was his target and he only consider 230-240k "decent".

It's these kinds of situations where you just gotta look at the data

- Giga china P/D is going to be about 25k higher than Q2 with potential for 30k more.
- We've seen no evidence of Fremont factory having downtime and I haven't even heard rumors of Fremont lines being down for even for a couple days this quarter.
- Giga Nevada has been running max production all quarter making batteries
- And even then, they still imported MIC battery packs to have further output from Fremont.

All the data points to Fremont production being at the same level or in fact higher production than Q2.

If Tesla are genuinely looking to reduce the wave in Q4 then they could hold off deliveries for Austin/Berlin production to postpone the low margin vehicles hitting their P&L in Q4 and move deliveries to Q1 when they have higher volume coming out of these factories with better margins. We saw something similar from Shanghai with the M3 launch.

That said, Tesla have tried to unwind the wave a couple of times and backtracked - presumably because they don't want to take the hit to quarterly results.

 

[mltv]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1436511861378256901

Earl of FrunkPuppy uploading fast