Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1438968179498311686

 

[Duffer]

Um no. Tesla has all the information about what the car is doing. Data on what the driver is doing, are they hitting the accelerator or brake to cause accidents, combined with video feed from every angle, including inside the cabin. It would be extremely obvious if someone was trying to use FSD in an intentional bad way to cause an accident. The culprit would be charged with manslaughter at minimum if the accident resulted in a death. You would have to be an idiot to intentionally cause an accident using FSD when Tesla has every bit of information about what you’re doing

True.

However, that hasn't stopped the idiots or the media from pushing their FUD before... Yes, eventually the truth comes out. But the "another Tesla crash" pushed 24 hours a day for several days has been useful for Tesla's/Elon's enemies before and will continue to be used until the "march of 9's" makes the FUD BS worthless.

Once "The Button" is available, anyone want to guess the over/under on how quickly the media claims that a Tesla crash was due to FSD Beta?

 

[StealthP3D]

Been thinking about market share vs how Tesla uses selection. As in a bike race. At the end of the field sprint, where you ride into a narrow opening into the woods, a selection happens. If you are in the top 10, or get the hole shot, you will probably finish OK, if you make all the other gates (selections) that are used to determine the winner. As a competitor you can sometimes decide to grind as a selection or sprint as a selection.

All statistics are flawed. Tesla uses selection to make sure they are flawed in their favor. For example:

The people putting FSD miles on are going to be selected based on large cushion size maintained while driving. The accident stats will reflect that large cushion size as fewer accidents and there will be no direct comparison. This is consistent with mission of accelerating the transition to sustainable energy.

For me, finding the right button to push to obtain FSD beta may be a struggle. That is another selection process. Here is how education is reflected in vehicle mile data.
View attachment 710710

As far as income goes, here is some all cause survival rates:

View attachment 710714

Someone told me that acting poor by driving an old car could have the same effect as actually being poor.

This started as a discussion of market share vs selection. Tesla uses selection. And would prefer that high maintenance customers inflict their maintenance costs on other companies. This is consistent with the mission, as other car companies are not on the mission, so wasting their time is probably a good idea.

When you build a mountain bike trail you put a qualifier at the entrance to each loop. If a rider cannot clear the qualifier they should go some other way. Customer selection is similar and is pretty standard stuff for many successful businesses.

I once worked for a company where the CEO had seen gifted people throw their lives away trying to sell into Japan in a previous job. When he came onboard, He said, "We are not going to do that."

So, point being that market share is not really granular enough without a maintenance and growth factor on the customers. How are they selected?
View attachment 710716
This February 2020 article says SpaceX had raised $3 Billion to date. And the contract to develop the crew capsule was about $3 Billion.
View attachment 710718


So if you think about selection, and how much 1 year of GM ad budget money did when applied as VC money to get SpaceX to where they are now, it is clear that Tesla is selecting the right customers with SpaceX, more efficiently than GM is with advertising.

This falls into the category of, "What they don't teach you at Harvard Business School," and is very consistent with the book of that title. Amazon.com: What They Don't Teach You at Harvard Business School: Notes from a Street-smart Executive eBook : McCormack, Mark H.: Kindle Store

Tesla is expert at selection and selection is helpful for the mission.

So, you're saying the customer is not always right?

If so, I tend to agree. Consumer behavior has changed in recent decades. On an optics forum I see people buying $1500 image-stabilized binoculars and saying things like "I was planning on just checking them out and sending them back" or "They are so good, I'm still debating whether I'll keep them or just send them back like I planned". Those words are from customers no one wants and if Tesla has ways of filtering some of them out of the customer pool, I'm all for it.

 

[RobDickinson]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1439005372061192193

USA SR+ model 3 and LR model Y dates pushed out to March 2022...

 

[Mokuzai]

Really hate the media. This showed up on the local news and though they even mentioned on TV that normally something like this would usually result in a serious crash possibly killing the driver or others they still threw shade on the technology.

Suspected DUI driver of Tesla reportedly on Autopilot taken into custody in Glendale

A DUI suspect was taken into custody after her Tesla vehicle that was reportedly on Autopilot stopped on a freeway overpass in the Glendale area.

abc7.com

 

[Singuy]

OK, I accept your premise that Tesla build and service quality is somewhere around the industry average.
However, I would ask if that is something to be proud of ?!?
After all, the traditional car brands are infamous for the bad reputation of their dealerships -- who make money on the service (not on selling cars) and do so by basically ripping off the customers. So, IMHO, the "industry average" car service experience is rather horrible.

On the anecdotal level: In the early adapter years (before Model 3 launch), I was very happy with my Tesla service experience on my Model S, it was way better than anything I ever experienced in my life from any other brand car service. In the more recent years, I have experienced significant degradation, so I am not at all surprised by the complaints I see.
I wish Tesla would strive to get back to the earlier level of service.

It's an equation of local maxima.

The first mass produced EV Tesla ever built is MANY orders of magnitude more reliable than the first mass produced ICE car ever built. So the starting point is already as competent in reliability as most automakers who had a century to perfect the combustion engine. ICE we already know have hit their local maxima, EVs are just getting started and will eventually surpass ICE by an order of magnitude.

We can't expect Tesla's first few years of max produced cars to reach this point, but it'll be pretty uncommon to service your car by 2030.

 

[CanadaEV]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1438968179498311686

• Lucid Air 520mi range car
  3.9%
• 
  Tesla Model 3/Y/S/X
  88.5%
• 
  Ford F-150 Lighting
  3.4%
• 
  Audi e-Tron
  4.2%

... In case you don't want to give him the benefit of a click on his dumb poll

 

[JWM3]

Really hate the media. This showed up on the local news and though they even mentioned on TV that normally something like this would usually result in a serious crash possibly killing the driver or others they still threw shade on the technology.

Suspected DUI driver of Tesla reportedly on Autopilot taken into custody in Glendale

A DUI suspect was taken into custody after her Tesla vehicle that was reportedly on Autopilot stopped on a freeway overpass in the Glendale area.

abc7.com

The title should change to "DUI driver's life saved by Tesla's autopilot"

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

True.

However, that hasn't stopped the idiots or the media from pushing their FUD before... Yes, eventually the truth comes out. But the "another Tesla crash" pushed 24 hours a day for several days has been useful for Tesla's/Elon's enemies before and will continue to be used until the "march of 9's" makes the FUD BS worthless.

Once "The Button" is available, anyone want to guess the over/under on how quickly the media claims that a Tesla crash was due to FSD Beta?

Sorry but what are you expecting? Tesla could wait another year to release the button and you’ll still have the media report on crashes and question if FSD beta was used. Thats a hypothetical that is going to happen regardless….so it doesn’t matter if Tesla release the button now or a year from now. You really think that a year from now and Tesla claims it’s conquered the March of 9’s that the media won’t try to blame FSD on crashes?

 

[HG Wells]

Jay Leno remains a fan of electric cars (and obviously Tesla). Nice to see some positive EV media mentions (and Elon agrees with his prediction):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1438980165942620166

Jay Leno: “I mean, the electric car is here to stay. I predict a child born today will probably drive in a gasoline powered car about as often as you would drive in a car with a stick shift now,”

So, in Europe stick shift is much more common than an automatic.
EV's will fail in the EU ?

 

[JRP3]

Rob influencing some people in DC

https://twitter.com/x/status/1438876714831056904

 

[Tyler34]

• Lucid Air 520mi range car
  3.9%
• 
  Tesla Model 3/Y/S/X
  88.5%
• 
  Ford F-150 Lighting
  3.4%
• 
  Audi e-Tron
  4.2%

... In case you don't want to give him the benefit of a click on his dumb poll

When gordo presents his data: "Only 22% of potential ev buyers said they would want a tesla model 3"

 

[nativewolf]

It's an equation of local maxima.

The first mass produced EV Tesla ever built is MANY orders of magnitude more reliable than the first mass produced ICE car ever built. So the starting point is already as competent in reliability as most automakers who had a century to perfect the combustion engine. ICE we already know have hit their local maxima, EVs are just getting started and will eventually surpass ICE by an order of magnitude.

We can't expect Tesla's first few years of max produced cars to reach this point, but it'll be pretty uncommon to service your car by 2030.

In agreement but a point of correction: Tesla was not the first mass produced EV. Tesla didn't have to invent suspension, brakes, etc like the early ICE guys had to, they didn't invent electric motors for vehicles, they didn't invent the lithium battery. EV's stuck into compact SUV had been around, Rav4 EVs etc (sold on lease and destroyed mostly) for years. Then the Nissan Leaf launch was 2 years before Tesla and the Volt just after the Leaf.

Tesla's team did not even have to invent how to hook all the little batteries together to make a pack, that was someone elses idea that punted to the two teams that became Tesla. It was just absolutely clear in 2007 that the EV was coming, the lithium battery pack trick had broken the death lock held by Chevron. Over time Tesla has driven innovation like crazy but at first, they just made a cool looking sedan that could go 200 miles on a charge and was reasonably speedy. In doing so they became the first new car company to successfully launch in the US since WWII.

I too hope that the million mile battery pack is included in a car good for a million miles, that would be awesome and who knows, maybe Tesla gets there. Hope so because my forestry equipment is enough headache.

 

[Mokuzai]

When gordo presents his data: "Only 22% of potential ev buyers said they would want a tesla model 3"

Let me take a stab at it...

Gordo: "What you have here is essentially a busted growth story. Look, Tesla had a 1.7% market share in the US for Q1. If only 89% of my poll would choose a Tesla that drops to 1.5% market share!"

Anybody else: "That's not how that works."

Gordo: "You're wrong!"

 

[redan]

This was very cool:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1438970355704479744

 

[redan]

Once Giga Berlin opens, it's game over. It almost feels like we have inside information. Wall Street and the main stream media are so dumb:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1438982304936906756

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Once Giga Berlin opens, it's game over. It almost feels like we have inside information. Wall Street and the main stream media are so dumb:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1438982304936906756

It's an open book test and the answers are right here

 

[Artful Dodger]

I learned from Perry Masonrock, "Never ask a question that you don't already know the answer to."

Flintstones philosophy, I love it! Rock is gonna roll (with all his might) tonight.

Cheers!

 

[Mengy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1439005372061192193

USA SR+ model 3 and LR model Y dates pushed out to March 2022...

Damn thats some crazy demand, six months out?

I wonder how much Austin starting production soon can bring those dates in?

 

[JRP3]

Then the Nissan Leaf launch was 2 years before Tesla

Tesla Roadster 2008, Nissan LEAF 2010