Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jkirkwood001]

Ugh dealerships. Such a messy, 20th-century anchor for the OEMs:

Ford Wants To Compete With Tesla, But Its Dealers Are Getting In The Way

It's one thing to have a product that competes with Tesla, it's another to have the sales experience. And Ford's old dealership model isn't helping.

jalopnik.com

 

[Wicket]

Ugh dealerships. Such a messy, 20th-century anchor for the OEMs:

Ford Wants To Compete With Tesla, But Its Dealers Are Getting In The Way

It's one thing to have a product that competes with Tesla, it's another to have the sales experience. And Ford's old dealership model isn't helping.

jalopnik.com

So while supply is clearly below demand there is basically nothing Ford can do to keep dealerships in an area from conspiring to set higher prices. It's the accumulation of deficits in competitiveness like this that really add up.

According to this mach-e sales were 1,448 in August for US market. They did better in Europe but frankly if demand was better here than supply why are you even shipping to Europe until you got more production?

I have seen a few around here in bay area but then you see everything here.

US: Ford Mustang Mach-E Sales Hit The Brakes In August 2021

Ford brand continues to report significant sales drop in the U.S. - in August by almost 33% year-over-year to 119,022 due to production constraints.

www.google.com

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1439005372061192193

USA SR+ model 3 and LR model Y dates pushed out to March 2022...

So now I need to worry about Q2 demand only. Phew...

 

[RobStark]

EVs will be 50% of the market(or thereabouts) in 2025/26.

Battery cell makers will not be able to acquire the battery grade minerals necessary to make enough cells for BEVs to be ~50% market share in 2026.

 

[RobStark]

According to this mach-e sales were 1,448 in August for US market. They did better in Europe but frankly if demand was better here than supply why are you even shipping to Europe until you got more production?

Because EU penalties for not meeting fleet CO2 grams/km requirements are far higher than CAFE fines in the USA.

 

[MC3OZ]

Battery cell makers will not be able to acquire the battery grade minerals necessary to make enough cells for BEVs to be ~50% market share in 2026.

IMO for Tesla to scale as planned in battery day the lithium-from-clay-via-salt extraction has to work, or they need to find other sources of lithium...

For LFP apart from lithium, the other raw materials are easy to source..

We also need to factor in the "valley of unsatisfied demand" new car buyers who want and EV, may simply wait for an EV...

It seems about 5 years lead time is needed to add raw materials to the supply chain,., so car companies should be trying to lock in raw materials for 2026 production now.. I think you are implying they are probably lacking the required urgency, and I tend to agree... but come 2026 they may regret that decision.

 

[Dreadnought]

I bought a Tesla after owning a Prius, not because it was faster but
because it's way better at staying away from stinky gas stations.

That said, even though I drive like a grandpa in chill mode,
my significant other (a former UPS truck driver, now more liberated)
is really zany -- she is pedal-to-the-metal almost everywhere.

Thus, I will do the honors after the beta button push. Even though
she has a better accident rate by necessity because she drove as a pro,
Tesla will discriminate in favor of us snails with a less G-force driving envelope.

I expect Tesla's risk assessment to be a bit more advanced than simple G-force measurements. In fact, it totally makes sense that Tesla insurance builds on the exact same stack as FSD. Risk of collision is a function of the trajectory of the car relative to any surrounding obstacles. The FSD path planner tries to minimize such risk and would simply be restricted to measuring it when a human driver has control.

However, anyone with a high risk profile actually benefits the most from ceding control to the car and therefore should rather be considered with priority and not excluded. What Tesla wants to measure instead is attentiveness. And ensuring that drivers stay alert whenever FSD is active is more important than any assessment prior to joining the Beta. In a similar fashion as autopilot shuts off when you ignore the nagging for too long, drivers need to get kicked from the Beta when they are too complacent. And yes, there are better ways to gauge attention than through nudging the steering wheel.

TL;DR:
Do not despair if your Beta participation request is denied. Maybe you just need to wait for Tesla to fine-tune their selection criteria.

 

[The Accountant]

Wow, went for a motorcycle ride to get some BBQ for lunch, ~250 miles round trip.

250 miles . . . .that must be some darn good BBQ.

 

[Tslynk67]

Lol, there's no way they locate 2.4M shares After-hrs w/o dramatically affecting the SP. Even then, that's a whole lotta volume from traders that have likely gone off-line for the weekend.

MUCH more likely IMO is this is simply executing some of the In-the-Money (ITM) Call contracts. As of 7:00 am, there were 218,524 open Call contracts (representing 21.8M shares). After-hrs volume of 2.4M shares would represent only 11% of those contracts.

Fun fact: I believe you CAN execute an Out-of-the-Money Call just by paying the additional price difference between the Strike price and the current SP. Paging @Lycanthrope for details.

We started the day with 19.9K open Call contracts at the 760 Strike, but the SP did exceed 760 for a few minutes before the Close, so anyone who wanted to execute those Calls had their chance to do so today (2M shares at 760 Strike). If they did, those shares would trade After-hrs as ususal, like the bulk batches usually reported at 5:15 p.m. each day.

Final comment, there were 171,346 Call contracts traded today at the 760 Strike (highest volume for any Call contract). That's a whole lotta trading, but remember that shortzes could also be hedging their trades with some of these Calls (which they would need to execute today if short-covering was their intention).

View attachment 710828

Cheers!

Yes indeed, although automatic execution of ITM options occurs at the close, any other still open option can be exercised on demand several hours after the bell

And of course the SP and strike of the option doesn't matter, the option holder has the "option" to exercise if they want

 

[Words of HABIT]

FTFY.

Cheers!

With a 50% Ukrainian heritage, I am half offended by your comment.

 

[Buckminster]

Enjoyed the Tesla quality discussion between y'all TSLA bulls (bull with a small b) - very quaint...

When are you people gonna get with the programme?

TSLA Super Bull thinking (note the big B):
Tesla quality Vs Uber quality is all that counts (which comes down to a numbers game per city). Whether you think we are 2 months or 2 years from robotaxis going live in one small country minimum, it is literally game over.

You should be ashamed of yourselves...

 

[2daMoon]

For those wanting data to debunk FUD, here's Brian's contribution on My Tesla Weekend

 

[ZeApelido]

Wow, big change to the referral program (essentially doing away with the referral program). This can only be seen as bullish - no need for a referral program any more:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1439042126764023812

Shed a tear for Freddy Lambert.

 

[hacer]

...

Fun fact: I believe you CAN execute an Out-of-the-Money Call just by paying the additional price difference between the Strike price and the current SP. Paging @Lycanthrope for details.

...

There is no question any TSLA (exchanged traded) call holder can exercise their option at any time before its expiration regardless of strike price. You always have to pay exactly the strike price (plus commission depending on broker) to do so. So executing a 760 call will cost $76k to get the 100 shares. The way you worded it implies the 760 call holder could acquire 100 shares for merely the difference between the close and the strike ($51.00), but of course that is absurd.

 

[hacer]

...
According to this mach-e sales were 1,448 in August for US market. They did better in Europe but frankly if demand was better here than supply why are you even shipping to Europe until you got more production?
...

They send them to Europe for the fuel efficiency credits of course. The better question is why do they bother to sell any here where the credit is a lot less valuable?

edit: I see @RobStark beat me to it.

 

[ZeApelido]

I'm sorry I had to

https://twitter.com/x/status/1439217494586056711

 

[Tslynk67]

There is no question any TSLA (exchanged traded) call holder can exercise their option at any time before its expiration regardless of strike price. You always have to pay exactly the strike price (plus commission depending on broker) to do so. So executing a 760 call will cost $76k to get the 100 shares. The way you worded it implies the 760 call holder could acquire 100 shares for merely the difference between the close and the strike ($51.00), but of course that is absurd.

Actually, this isn't quite correct - my broker does not allow early exercise of long options, I have no idea why, it's just not possible - unfortunately this doesn't protect from my short options to be randomly exercised, but this is such a rare event that I don't even take it into account

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Even weirder, there were details of a new credit-based referral program embedded in the Tesla mobile app a few weeks ago.

But I guess once you reach a 6 month backlog of orders, referrals just become counter-productive.

Tesla is always tweaking the referral program, I think its a temporary removal as they migrate over to the one hinted at in the new app.

Yeah, there is a 6 month backlog now but once GigaAustin and GigaBerlin are open they are going to be printing cars (and money) as things ramp up. The Alien Dreadnought has been awakened!

 

[hacer]

Actually, this isn't quite correct - my broker does not allow early exercise of long options, I have no idea why, it's just not possible - unfortunately this doesn't protect from my short options to be randomly exercised, but this is such a rare event that I don't even take it into account

Are you trading European-style options on a European exchange? I think no equity stock options on the U.S. exchanges are European-style, so they can be exercised at any time before expiration.

If you are trading these on U.S. exchanges then maybe your broker (being European) just wants to follow one set of rules and denies you the rights that you paid for.

 

[Jack6591]

Off topic…

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