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Been thinking about market share vs how Tesla uses selection. As in a bike race. At the end of the field sprint, where you ride into a narrow opening into the woods, a selection happens. If you are in the top 10, or get the hole shot, you will probably finish OK, if you make all the other gates (selections) that are used to determine the winner. As a competitor you can sometimes decide to grind as a selection or sprint as a selection.

All statistics are flawed. Tesla uses selection to make sure they are flawed in their favor. For example:

The people putting FSD miles on are going to be selected based on large cushion size maintained while driving. The accident stats will reflect that large cushion size as fewer accidents and there will be no direct comparison. This is consistent with mission of accelerating the transition to sustainable energy.

For me, finding the right button to push to obtain FSD beta may be a struggle. That is another selection process. Here is how education is reflected in vehicle mile data.
Education Curves.PNG


As far as income goes, here is some all cause survival rates:

Survival Curves.PNG


Someone told me that acting poor by driving an old car could have the same effect as actually being poor.

This started as a discussion of market share vs selection. Tesla uses selection. And would prefer that high maintenance customers inflict their maintenance costs on other companies. This is consistent with the mission, as other car companies are not on the mission, so wasting their time is probably a good idea.

When you build a mountain bike trail you put a qualifier at the entrance to each loop. If a rider cannot clear the qualifier they should go some other way. Customer selection is similar and is pretty standard stuff for many successful businesses.

I once worked for a company where the CEO had seen gifted people throw their lives away trying to sell into Japan in a previous job. When he came onboard, He said, "We are not going to do that."

So, point being that market share is not really granular enough without a maintenance and growth factor on the customers. How are they selected?
GM.PNG

This February 2020 article says SpaceX had raised $3 Billion to date. And the contract to develop the crew capsule was about $3 Billion.
SpaceX.PNG



So if you think about selection, and how much 1 year of GM ad budget money did when applied as VC money to get SpaceX to where they are now, it is clear that Tesla is selecting the right customers with SpaceX, more efficiently than GM is with advertising.

This falls into the category of, "What they don't teach you at Harvard Business School," and is very consistent with the book of that title. Amazon.com: What They Don't Teach You at Harvard Business School: Notes from a Street-smart Executive eBook : McCormack, Mark H.: Kindle Store

Tesla is expert at selection and selection is helpful for the mission.
 
Wow, went for a motorcycle ride to get some BBQ for lunch, ~250 miles round trip.

Get back and wade through the new posts only to find the MMs couldn't tell which witch was which and the SP ratcheted up a little more while they deliberated.

Green is such a pretty color to come home to. I need to make a habit of riding for BBQ on triple witching Fridays more often. :cool:

Edit: 14M shares at the Closing Cross! Holy cow Batman! That's more in a few minutes than a few days total volume recently, isn't it?
 
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Isn't Lucid planning to have a fast charging network? I think the 520 mile range is because they will be able to call it a "Coast-to-Coast" fast charging network with only 5 charge stations.
They are utilizing Electrify America charging stations for the time being. Lucid is offering 3 free years of charging. The electrify charging stations were put in by Volkswagen as a penance from the emissions cheating scandal. Unfortunately they are not really reliable and ironically even the ID.4's have a hard time interfacing with them.
 
I think for all the Fridays we blame MM for manipulating Tesla down, today is probably one of those days where they helped. The macro environment is absolutely abysmal today. If today was a typical day, it would have been an easy -3 to 5% kind of day.

Also good thing the Vix did not hit 21 at the close. I am nervous about next week actually.
I'm by no means an expert, but I was interpreting today's results differently. If MMs were propping up the price today, it doesn't seem like they would prop it all the way up to 760; 750 max seemed like the better target. Therefore my explanation is that they had trouble capping the price despite the bad macros. Very bullish.

Again, I'm no expert and surely have a positive bias towards the stock price, so would welcome evidence to the contrary.
 
I'm by no means an expert, but I was interpreting today's results differently. If MMs were propping up the price today, it doesn't seem like they would prop it all the way up to 760; 750 max seemed like the better target. Therefore my explanation is that they had trouble capping the price despite the bad macros. Very bullish.

Again, I'm no expert and surely have a positive bias towards the stock price, so would welcome evidence to the contrary.
Looked like sector rotation into high-growth EV stocks was what killed the Hedgie's play today, but indeed the shorts they put out here will need to be closed on Monday, and likely without a -1.5% Nasdaq and +8% VIX

BAF!

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I'm not saying Tesla build quality is perfect, or their service is perfect. I'm saying they are within industry standard if you zoom out from the anecdotal view and look at the big picture.
OK, I accept your premise that Tesla build and service quality is somewhere around the industry average.
However, I would ask if that is something to be proud of ?!?
After all, the traditional car brands are infamous for the bad reputation of their dealerships -- who make money on the service (not on selling cars) and do so by basically ripping off the customers. So, IMHO, the "industry average" car service experience is rather horrible.

On the anecdotal level: In the early adapter years (before Model 3 launch), I was very happy with my Tesla service experience on my Model S, it was way better than anything I ever experienced in my life from any other brand car service. In the more recent years, I have experienced significant degradation, so I am not at all surprised by the complaints I see.
I wish Tesla would strive to get back to the earlier level of service.
 
I'm by no means an expert, but I was interpreting today's results differently. If MMs were propping up the price today, it doesn't seem like they would prop it all the way up to 760; 750 max seemed like the better target. Therefore my explanation is that they had trouble capping the price despite the bad macros. Very bullish.

Again, I'm no expert and surely have a positive bias towards the stock price, so would welcome evidence to the contrary.

That's what it felt like to me.
 
Did you guys seen that rocket and that capsule with a glass cupola floating outside the planet in the vacuum?

I wonder what kind of manufacturing the people behind something like that are capable of. Probably not that shabby.

Why are some concerned with the manufacturing tolerances when that’s only going to improve to the point that everything else will look inferior, to say the least?

Just wondering…. 😂
 
Are we really back to calling people who mention poor service 'crybabies'? This is embarrassing. It is WAY too early to be smug about Teslas long term build quality. I own a 2015 model S. An amazing car, but with terrible panel gaps, the fancy powered door-handles broke and needed replacing (under warranty), the glue on the chargepoint door would melt in the sun and stick the door closed, the rear headlights still fill up with water even after tesla fixed it.
The car became almost unusable until i upgraded the screen at my own expense. The brakes have squeaked constantly since it got new (referral wheels).

Tesla customer service in my experience has been erratic, contradictory, and sometimes dreadful. They keep replying to me every few weeks (but only after I complain loudly) assuring me they are 'looking into' whether I should be compensated the cost of an emmc replacement after I paid about $3000 for a new screen to fix the teslas-fault bad component on manufacture.

I love my car, and will get a model Y. I have seven figures of tesla stock and love the company, but to be honest, their customer service is awful. We dont know how well built the cars are yet, because frankly most of them are new. The left scroll wheel on my steering wheel started intermittently failing yesterday. What state will the car be in another 5 years?

When we have 10 year old model 3s, and Ys that are still flawless, yup by all means be smug, but to brush all customer service concerns aside and call anybody with any criticisms of the company as a 'crybaby' is a disservice to a forum that is supposed to be for investors, not fanboys.

Oh and BTW still in 2021 all UK Teslas web browsers think we are in the Netherlands. People have complained hundreds of times, they still cannot be bothered to fix that.
Your car is 6 years old and there are literally thousands of comments all over the Internet praising build quality even in Europe of the Chinese made cars.

The complaining about build quality and panel gaps is overdone now. That ship sailed. Everyone is free to go pick on something else now that’s actually true.
 
The 7 days doesn't start until you push the button. Unless you're just practicing for when the button arrives I guess.
I hope that either I have a home court advantage or that Tesla is grading our driving on a curve (no pun intended). Otherwise, dealing with with these non-driving brain dead commuters will severely limit my chances of being selected.

It sure is nice being GREEN going into the weekend. Enjoy!
 
Hell of a week! Have a great one everyone.
Quick FSD question. Do we think we have to drive extra carefully for 7 days before the button or 7 days after?
You should probably drive extra carefully everyday.

All the chatter about driving carefully “for the next 7 day” leaves me feeling uneasy. Stay safe out there folks and have a great weekend!
 
I'm genuinely concerned that bad actors, TSLAQ or otherwise, will get their hands on a car and FSD beta and purposely cause accidents just to damage the company. I don't know if Tesla has really thought this public access method through just yet. If anything, they should have a real vetting mechanism in place, and demand you submit evidence you aren't an enemy of Tesla such as significant share ownership and also let them verify your identity and check your social media accounts. This makes me extremely uneasy that bad people may try to kill other people just to stop Tesla from succeeding.
 
I'm genuinely concerned that bad actors, TSLAQ or otherwise, will get their hands on a car and FSD beta and purposely cause accidents just to damage the company. I don't know if Tesla has really thought this public access method through just yet. If anything, they should have a real vetting mechanism in place, and demand you submit evidence you aren't an enemy of Tesla such as significant share ownership and also let them verify your identity and check your social media accounts. This makes me extremely uneasy that bad people may try to kill other people just to stop Tesla from succeeding.
Um no. Tesla has all the information about what the car is doing. Data on what the driver is doing, are they hitting the accelerator or brake to cause accidents, combined with video feed from every angle, including inside the cabin. It would be extremely obvious if someone was trying to use FSD in an intentional bad way to cause an accident. The culprit would be charged with manslaughter at minimum if the accident resulted in a death. You would have to be an idiot to intentionally cause an accident using FSD when Tesla has every bit of information about what you’re doing
 
I'm genuinely concerned that bad actors, TSLAQ or otherwise, will get their hands on a car and FSD beta and purposely cause accidents just to damage the company. I don't know if Tesla has really thought this public access method through just yet. If anything, they should have a real vetting mechanism in place, and demand you submit evidence you aren't an enemy of Tesla such as significant share ownership and also let them verify your identity and check your social media accounts. This makes me extremely uneasy that bad people may try to kill other people just to stop Tesla from succeeding.
Feel like there are plenty of things to do to sabotage Tesla even with just AP or setting the car on fire