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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Glad my kids are smarter than I am and they "get it".
So my son gives me this card in full Tesla font.
Son: "Click the red button Dad, click the red button."
Me: "I'm clicking it. I don't hear anything."
D'uh. He got me.
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And you don’t even realize you just activated beta FSD V10 in your car by pressing that button!

go into your car right now to take FSD footage right now!
 
is there any point to discussing the customer service of tesla in the tesla investor forums? is that a joke? christ, no wonder its so bad, if even mentioning an area tesla is not perfect at gets this kind of reply, they are not even going to realize how bad it is. This should be an investor forum, not a cult.
I'm not dis/agreeing with service being an issue, however if you had to rate it as a percentage of the following - how would you rate it?
  • ramping current Gigafactories
  • working out issues with 4680 production
  • getting FSD working
  • ramping dojo
  • Scaling solar-roof
  • rolling out the supercharger network
I'd be surprised if you put it above all of these when there is a 6 month lead time on vehicle production and the amazing margins that can be achieved by FSD.
 
Yes, of course, I worded my post very badly! I cannot early exercise long options is what I meant
this is SICK because the pricing formula for American options includes a premium for the fact that they are exercisable any date before expiration. I.e., your broker denies you a right that you implicitly paid for in the market.

Have you ever tried calling your broker?
 
this is SICK because the pricing formula for American options includes a premium for the fact that they are exercisable any date before expiration. I.e., your broker denies you a right that you implicitly paid for in the market.

Have you ever tried calling your broker?
If you buy the options in Europe, you are subject to European options rules which prohibit early exercise.
 
TL;DR - (But I'd recommend the article) - Traditional auto makers don't like to innovate in things they don't understand like 'computery-thingys' and it is going to keep hurting them for at least another 6 to 12 months.

Longer version - This article sums up pretty well why traditional auto is really hurting now as these ancient chips used to be high gross margin items and when they stopped ordering, due to the pandemic, it appears that the chip makers shut down and/or moved the capacity to other chips (like IoT devices for home electronics) from the old fabs to save money.

So they are forced to do super scary things like redesign a new circuit board (oh the humanity!) and recertify that new board design (OMG!). Most likely these new boards won't be redesigned by the auto makers themselves as they don't employ those kinds of engineers, and yes, they are hard to come by even if you know what you are looking for. They'll need to outsource the changes and I wonder how those 3rd parties are going to be able to react? Actually I don't wonder, I know, and it isn't pretty. Massive delays could be greater than 1 year for these critical parts. I know it sounds long, but that is **IF** the 3rd parties move quickly.

And this is the icing on the cake...

"As a result, as many as 9.4 million cars, or more than a tenth of the industry’s pre-pandemic output, could be eliminated from production plans, according to market research firm AutoForecast Solutions.

“Because of a 50-cent chip, we are unable to build a car that sells for $50,000,” said Murat Aksel, head of procurement for Volkswagen Group, during a press briefing in Munich last week.

If semiconductor suppliers like Intel and Qualcomm have their way, however, the days of the auto industry relying on these cheap commodity chips are numbered."

Fortune: Chipmakers to carmakers: Time to get out of the semiconductor Stone Age.
 
I've been selling covered calls in the week of their expiration, at strikes where call walls already exist on the max pain chart. I assumed those walls were created by market makers with the power to defend them. For several weeks that worked well. This last week it didn't.

I sell puts a month ahead, and roll to a new batch each week (edit: if they are out of the money). I don't care if they get exercised, because it usually gets me shares at a discount.

I'll be more cautious with selling calls in the next few weeks because of imminent catalysts. Maybe not sell any in the week of the Production/Delivery report.
Please don’t put too much faith in “Max pain“ It isn’t a very dependable mechanism of stock price movement I see max pain discussions have been increasingly dominating this thread lately, and I did wonder how many people were making short term investment decisions based on It.

if profitably investing using Max pain was something that actually worked consistently the world would be awash with “max pain” billionaires and everyone would be doing it. There is a reason that isnt the case.
 
As investors, it is important not to believe in magic. I read the posts on this board and I get the sense some of you think Tesla has magic powers. That if Tesla does X, that means X is right and every other decision is wrong. This is a total misunderstanding of the Tesla way. Tesla's success comes from rational decisions (and some luck), not from magic powers. Elon Musk and his company apply first principles thinking rather than copying past successful decisions. In addition, they believe in experimentation. They believe in making decisions quickly, with the understanding that those decisions may be wrong. Tesla tries lots of things, and many times they are wrong, many times they fail, but the company is built to recover and adapt quickly. Elon deliberately built a company that makes mistakes and recovers rather than trying to be right every time.

When I'm looking at Tesla competitors to invest in, I look for companies that mimic Tesla's first principles + experimentation mindset rather than companies that mimic Tesla's specific decisions. And I'm going to give two examples.

Example 1 is Lucid's charging network versus what Rivian is doing. Lucid is relying on ElectrifyAmerica while Rivian is copying Tesla and building out a proprietary charging network. But think a little deeper, and Lucid's strategy actually makes much more sense. The point of a fast charging network isn't to compete with other EVs, but to compete with gasoline cars. That's the reason Tesla build the superchargers, not to compete with other EVs but with gas cars. Partnering with EA lets Lucid put together a charging network competitive with gas cars much quicker than building out a proprietary network. Even though Rivian made the same decision as Tesla, Lucid's decision actually reflects closer to the Tesla way of thinking.

Example 2 is Canoo. When Canoo first came out, I loved their experimental subscription model. But they were taken over by a guy named Tony Aquila, who is a wannabe Elon Musk, and he fired the founders and abandoned the unique business model, switching to a conventional model of vertical integration and selling cars directly to consumers. But I think the Canoo's founders experimentation is actually more in line with Tesla thinking than Aquila and the new management's approach of copying Tesla decisions.
Pfft!

*pets my 🦄 while watching the finale of AGT*
 
Off-topic, but the market is closed on Saturday, and SpaceX is headed by Tesla CEO Musk.

The SpaceX three-day orbital mission with only four space tourists (non-professional astronauts) is de-orbiting for splash-down off the coast of Florida at 7:06 pm EDT.


How do you get future customers for an industry that didn’t exist until now?

Show them the products in use and stream it.

Amazing.

Edit: Congratulations SpaceX team, on making another step towards fulfilling your mission! Colonize Mars!
 
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How do you get future customers for an industry that didn’t exist until now?

Show them the products in use and stream it.

Amazing.

Edit: Congratulations SpaceX team, on making another step towards fulfilling your mission! Colonize Mars!
Once again bragging rights about being *first* is out done by the guy and company who have the sincerest and purest motives.
 
Can u perhaps poke your head into the options wheel thread and share your strategy/advice? 😃
Done. Hopefully you don't want 5 minutes of your life back after reading it....

 
Don’t let the word get out. It will embolden the drivers of Porsches, Corvettes, Challengers, etc. to get their token "Smoked a Tesla" medal.
The ICE guys don't really race Teslas anymore. In general they kind of pretend we aren't there, like there's a car-shaped hole where a Tesla is.

However your average Tesla driver also never challenges, because we already know what we've got and don't need to prove anything to anyone.
 
The ICE guys don't really race Teslas anymore. In general they kind of pretend we aren't there, like there's a car-shaped hole where a Tesla is.

However your average Tesla driver also never challenges, because we already know what we've got and don't need to prove anything to anyone.
I don’t challenge. I just leave them in the dust.