Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[insaneoctane]

You should probably drive extra carefully everyday.

All the chatter about driving carefully “for the next 7 day” leaves me feeling uneasy. Stay safe out there folks and have a great weekend!

A legit question without any real knowledge out there to properly answer. I don't feel uneasy because this question shows how fun our Tesla's are. I love to drive mine and enjoy the opportunities to exercise it's performance quite often...but, I am willing to pause my enjoyment back to mortal levels for 7 days if it gives me more likely access to FSD. I don't know what measurements Tesla insurance will make, so I'll drive it like an ICE box for 7 days

EDIT: Elon did answer....7 days after request- which grants permission to monitor you...

 

[StealthP3D]

Battery cell makers will not be able to acquire the battery grade minerals necessary to make enough cells for BEVs to be ~50% market share in 2026.

That presumes total new car sales will not decline precipitously by 2026 which is what I expect to happen. And raw material suppliers have recently raised huge amounts of money to expand production of minerals associated with batteries and EV's. So, no, I don't think that post will age well. It might come down to what "~" means.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Are ludicrous launches with no traffic considered safe? Asking for a friend…

 

[Tslynk67]

Are you trading European-style options on a European exchange? I think no equity stock options on the U.S. exchanges are European-style, so they can be exercised at any time before expiration.

If you are trading these on U.S. exchanges then maybe your broker (being European) just wants to follow one set of rules and denies you the rights that you paid for.

I guess you know that European/American is just a naming convention and has nothing to do with geography... but no, I'm trading American options, they can be exercised by the buyer, but not by me, the seller, for some weird reason it's just not offered by my broker

Maybe this is a thing for all European based brokers

Of course exercising of options, even at expiry is not the norm, it's nearly always more profitable to close the position, and the bulk of options trading os for profits, hedging, risk management, etc., not for acquisition of shares

 

[uujjj2]

As investors, it is important not to believe in magic. I read the posts on this board and I get the sense some of you think Tesla has magic powers. That if Tesla does X, that means X is right and every other decision is wrong. This is a total misunderstanding of the Tesla way. Tesla's success comes from rational decisions (and some luck), not from magic powers. Elon Musk and his company apply first principles thinking rather than copying past successful decisions. In addition, they believe in experimentation. They believe in making decisions quickly, with the understanding that those decisions may be wrong. Tesla tries lots of things, and many times they are wrong, many times they fail, but the company is built to recover and adapt quickly. Elon deliberately built a company that makes mistakes and recovers rather than trying to be right every time.

When I'm looking at Tesla competitors to invest in, I look for companies that mimic Tesla's first principles + experimentation mindset rather than companies that mimic Tesla's specific decisions. And I'm going to give two examples.

Example 1 is Lucid's charging network versus what Rivian is doing. Lucid is relying on ElectrifyAmerica while Rivian is copying Tesla and building out a proprietary charging network. But think a little deeper, and Lucid's strategy actually makes much more sense. The point of a fast charging network isn't to compete with other EVs, but to compete with gasoline cars. That's the reason Tesla build the superchargers, not to compete with other EVs but with gas cars. Partnering with EA lets Lucid put together a charging network competitive with gas cars much quicker than building out a proprietary network. Even though Rivian made the same decision as Tesla, Lucid's decision actually reflects closer to the Tesla way of thinking.

Example 2 is Canoo. When Canoo first came out, I loved their experimental subscription model. But they were taken over by a guy named Tony Aquila, who is a wannabe Elon Musk, and he fired the founders and abandoned the unique business model, switching to a conventional model of vertical integration and selling cars directly to consumers. But I think the Canoo's founders experimentation is actually more in line with Tesla thinking than Aquila and the new management's approach of copying Tesla decisions.

 

[johnm6875]

Are ludicrous launches with no traffic considered safe? Asking for a friend…

It's only 7 days. Be strong.

 

[insaneoctane]

This is how I read Gordo's manipulation...

• Do you want 520 miles of range?!!!
• Do you want a Tesla model? I refuse to spell S3XY!
• Do you like FORD?
• Aren't Audi's sweeeeet looking?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1438569407576432640

 

[SOULPEDL]

Silly question. Is the FSD Beta version # trying to equal human safety improvement factor? We were at V10 some time ago then the numbering restarted... bc it was not as good, but now we're at 10x again? I think so anyway, helps sell the concept.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

I guess you know that European/American is just a naming convention and has nothing to do with geography... but no, I'm trading American options, they can be exercised by the buyer, but not by me, the seller, for some weird reason it's just not offered by my broker

Maybe this is a thing for all European based brokers

Of course exercising of options, even at expiry is not the norm, it's nearly always more profitable to close the position, and the bulk of options trading os for profits, hedging, risk management, etc., not for acquisition of shares

If you're a seller of options you have no right to exercise. You've sold that right to the buyer. Only buyers of options have any right to exercise

 

[JRP3]

Tesla is the mechanical rabbit at the dog track, you can't catch it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1439204477152731136

 

[PeterJA]

...This likely means that many, many Call contracts which expire today were executed. Did anybody here have any shares called away?

I bought back $750 covered calls at a loss, so I wouldn't lose the shares. I waited too long to buy them because I had too much faith in the manipulators to defend 750.

Then the share price kept surging so I bought back $760 calls at a reduced gain, because I had too little faith in the manipulators to defend 760. Live and learn.

 

[PeterJA]

So The Stock Channel is seeing some bold predictions for the coming few weeks for September

1. S&P, Dow, and QQQ are going into correction territory, so expect massive selling ahead.
2. This is caused by sector rotation into GROWTH stocks
3. Tesla/ARK is about to have a huge breakout...

Yahoo Finance was just saying the opposite: "Delta variant cases have peaked so sector rotation will be into "reopening stocks" from tech stocks."

Thank heaven for economic experts.

 

[NicoV]

Tesla is the mechanical rabbit at the dog track, you can't catch it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1439204477152731136

I like what he says now more than his Model 3 ramp predictions a couple of years ago.

 

[FireMedic]

Off topic…

Elektroboot -M 800 - Marian Boote

marianboats.at

I wish I had met y’all a few years earlier so I could afford an electric yacht for my island. I suspect this board is target audience for these products.

 

[Fobble]

This is how I read Gordo's manipulation...

• Do you want 520 miles of range?!!!
• Do you want a Tesla model? I refuse to spell S3XY!
• Do you like FORD?
• Aren't Audi's sweeeeet looking?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1438569407576432640

Nah, he is building ammunition for his next CNBC interview/comment

 

[Christine69420]

Tesla is the mechanical rabbit at the dog track, you can't catch it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1439204477152731136

Can't believe I just gave a tweet from Adam Jonas a love like.

 

[StealthP3D]

This is how I read Gordo's manipulation...

• Do you want 520 miles of range?!!!
• Do you want a Tesla model? I refuse to spell S3XY!
• Do you like FORD?
• Aren't Audi's sweeeeet looking?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1438569407576432640

What I can't figure out is why he made a competition having three teams with one player each and yet he let the Tesla team have four players?

I'm guessing he's so dumb he thought Tesla would lose by a large margin even with 4 players.

 

[Ohmster]

Tesla is the mechanical rabbit at the dog track, you can't catch it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1439204477152731136

Most brilliant analogy ever!

 

[madodel]

As investors, it is important not to believe in magic. I read the posts on this board and I get the sense some of you think Tesla has magic powers. That if Tesla does X, that means X is right and every other decision is wrong. This is a total misunderstanding of the Tesla way. Tesla's success comes from rational decisions (and some luck), not from magic powers. Elon Musk and his company apply first principles thinking rather than copying past successful decisions. In addition, they believe in experimentation. They believe in making decisions quickly, with the understanding that those decisions may be wrong. Tesla tries lots of things, and many times they are wrong, many times they fail, but the company is built to recover and adapt quickly. Elon deliberately built a company that makes mistakes and recovers rather than trying to be right every time.

When I'm looking at Tesla competitors to invest in, I look for companies that mimic Tesla's first principles + experimentation mindset rather than companies that mimic Tesla's specific decisions. And I'm going to give two examples.

Example 1 is Lucid's charging network versus what Rivian is doing. Lucid is relying on ElectrifyAmerica while Rivian is copying Tesla and building out a proprietary charging network. But think a little deeper, and Lucid's strategy actually makes much more sense. The point of a fast charging network isn't to compete with other EVs, but to compete with gasoline cars. That's the reason Tesla build the superchargers, not to compete with other EVs but with gas cars. Partnering with EA lets Lucid put together a charging network competitive with gas cars much quicker than building out a proprietary network. Even though Rivian made the same decision as Tesla, Lucid's decision actually reflects closer to the Tesla way of thinking.

Example 2 is Canoo. When Canoo first came out, I loved their experimental subscription model. But they were taken over by a guy named Tony Aquila, who is a wannabe Elon Musk, and he fired the founders and abandoned the unique business model, switching to a conventional model of vertical integration and selling cars directly to consumers. But I think the Canoo's founders experimentation is actually more in line with Tesla thinking than Aquila and the new management's approach of copying Tesla decisions.

Only problem I see with public charging networks is that EV makers are then reliant on some other company to build the network out and maintain it. Will be interesting to see if EA is deserving of that trust.

 

[Singuy]

Yahoo Finance was just saying the opposite: "Delta variant cases have peaked so sector rotation will be into "reopening stocks" from tech stocks."

Thank heaven for economic experts.

Think I'll stick to the guy who predicted crazy intraday QQQ reversals which happened than the people who crapped on tsla all their careers.