Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MountainRatMat]

Gonna be an interesting finish. If volume slows further, I could see MM's pushing it back to $759.99. If any kind of volume is maintained at $765-770, their algos might just decide it's optimal to cover a bit and let it drift up to $780. Fun times.

Remind me again why I watch this stock every day in the summer?

Forgive me for being pedantic but it's not summer anymore.

You are now allowed to watch the stock every day and not feel guilty.

 

[stealthyc]

Wednesday is what they call a potential dead cat bounce. No correction goes straight down btw. You have to look at the strength of the green days from a volume perspective. Monday and Tuesday gave pretty strong signals that a correction is happening. Wednesday+Thursday suggested a potential dead cat bounce. And just today we have a stronger signal that correction may be over.

Btw these signals are just for the computer algros out there. Volume from whales will always push computer algros to the side. That's why I believe in TA in a sense that "if no major event happens that draws bears or bulls in, it'll just follow TA". So prediction wise I call it medium weight as a lot of bears and bulls use computer algros on their side to help push for break outs or pushing down for corrections.

So when you have now a signal of reversal, it'll be much harder for bears to cause major dips because the bulls will have computer algro on their side verse earlier this week.

You just described pretty well what I was trying to say which is that there is no predictive value in the analysis you describe. If you start by saying "this will happen if these other things don't happen" and you have no idea if the other things will happen, there is no value in that prediction.

All these statements are that market indicators on a given day (that already happened) suggest that a thing *might* be happening. And when the market does the thing the that was said *might* happen, new statements then become "like I predicted". This is classic TA commentary, and useless overall.

 

[MXWing]

Max Pain in my opinion isn't going to be valid for the next 4 weeks.

I put my trades where my mouth is - and part of those trades is NOT selling calls unless I see at least 850.

 

[Mengy]

Hmm, plenty of those cars seem to have chrome trim. Could they be secondhand vehicles? Or perhaps the video is old?

It might not be chrome, the white film they put over the black trim sometimes looks kinda chrome from a distance.

 

[RobDickinson]

Ive noticed chrome on car windows from Shanghai drone flyovers but always forgot to look into if it's only Fremont with the black trim or not.

It's protective tape covering not the actual trim

 

[Singuy]

You just described pretty well what I was trying to say which is that there is no predictive value in the analysis you describe. If you start by saying "this will happen if these other things don't happen" and you have no idea if the other things will happen, there is no value in that prediction.

All these statements are that market indicators on a given day (that already happened) suggest that a thing *might* be happening. And when the market does the thing the that was said *might* happen, new statements then become "like I predicted". This is classic TA commentary, and useless overall.

I think given Tesla's beta, the stock channel did a pretty bang up job predicting future events. I wouldn't have dared predicted Tsla will be okay this week given how nasty the price action was. But that's what came out of that guy's TA and it's what happened despite all the noise about Evergrande, or the Fed, or this and that. I never expect Tesla to beat macros in what it looks to be a correction. Like what one poster said, Tesla is a high beta stock when macros are red, and low beta stock when macros are green. That's the generally the price action of Tesla that I am used to.

 

[capster]

I think other AI systems will quickly have FSD capabilities once Tesla releases their FSD. They could directly copy the "weights" in Tesla neural nets, or use Tesla FSD in a supervised training. Generate lots of simulations and train their own systems to behave like Tesla's by hacking to input the simulation videos into Tesla camera feeds.

You’re confused about how you would reverse engineer a driving neural network.

If I’m not mistaken and it’s been quite awhile since I trained in this field, the correct approach is to plunge numerous neuralinks into multiple regions of a race car driver‘s brain and extract the synaptic weights that way.

The driver’s brain is of course sacrificial, though it appears pro-athletes often don’t use them after they retire.

/s

 

[2daMoon]

Listen folks, I want to apologize. Last week I alluded to how I could ride my motorcycle to get barbeque on subsequent Fridays, as it seemed to have helped the SP last time. Well, I didn't do that today. Though, rather than sit here at the computer hanging on every post, frantically surfing back and forth from TMC to Tesla-related YouTube vids, I did manage to break away. It is never easy to let go of the habit, once you are hooked.

So instead, I went and rode the mountain bike, and, rode with a friend who just purchased a shiny new electrically-assisted mountain bike to make up for the state of decay of his fitness level since last riding with me fifteen or so years ago. Now I'll have to get one too so I can keep up with him. But, that is beside the point.

IDK, maybe it being one of them new-fangled pedal-assisted by electrons versions played a part in today's moon-shot, and I'm really glad the SP didn't tank over me not having made the BBQ run. Hopefully, there are no hard feelings.

All's well that ends well, and, well is indeed how it ended.

 

[stealthyc]

I think given Tesla's beta, the stock channel did a pretty bang up job predicting future events. I wouldn't have dared predicted Tsla will be okay this week given how nasty the price action was. But that's what came out of that guy's TA and it's what happened despite all the noise about Evergrande, or the Fed, or this and that. I never expect Tesla to beat macros in what it looks to be a correction. Like what one poster said, Tesla is a high beta stock when macros are red, and low beta stock when macros are green. That's the generally the price action of Tesla that I am used to.

You are cherry picking predictions though. I just looked back at his week's videos and he very correctly described what just happened in the market on a given day, and failed to predict what would happen going forward. I did not watch specific tesla information.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Max Pain in my opinion isn't going to be valid for the next 4 weeks.

I put my trades where my mouth is - and part of those trades is NOT selling calls unless I see at least 850.

Call Options Volume at the 770 Strike was off the chain today: 175K Contracts traded. I've never seen Options trading so concentrated at a single Strike before. This was somebody's plan. Let's see how many shares trade After-hrs today: volume was 332,955 shares @ 5 p.m.

Worth watching, much more informative than max-pee...

Cheers!

 

[lafrisbee]

Forgive me for being pedantic but it's not summer anymore.

You are now allowed to watch the stock every day and not feel guilty.

I think that was his point.

 

[lafrisbee]

You just described pretty well what I was trying to say which is that there is no predictive value in the analysis you describe. If you start by saying "this will happen if these other things don't happen" and you have no idea if the other things will happen, there is no value in that prediction.

All these statements are that market indicators on a given day (that already happened) suggest that a thing *might* be happening. And when the market does the thing the that was said *might* happen, new statements then become "like I predicted". This is classic TA commentary, and useless overall.

come on you guys, there are only so many ways to predict...sell hold or buy. Nothing else is predicting... it is imagining.

 

[Singuy]

You are cherry picking predictions though. I just looked back at his week's videos and he very correctly described what just happened in the market on a given day, and failed to predict what would happen going forward. I did not watch specific tesla information.

You have to watch last week's video for this week's prediction. Also every day there's specific tesla information. It takes a few days to have a clear signal. Some of that day to day stuff doesn't say anything besides "you have to watch for this".

 

[FireMedic]

Hmm, plenty of those cars seem to have chrome trim. Could they be secondhand vehicles? Or perhaps the video is old?

I believe that may be just a protective film. I took a screenshot here where you see model Y with Chrome looking handles.

Correct me if I’m wrong… They never made the model Y with the chrome trim.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Current Norwegian quarterly record is actually 7,178 cars. I swear it used to say 7,174. But lets go with the four extra wherever they came from. With seven six five weekdays to go Tesla is at 5,982 6,226 6,391, This is 1,192 948 787 behind. Which translates to 170 158 157 cars per weekday remaining. Todays sales were 303 239 162.

Pretty clear signs that they are starting to run lower on the number of cars at hand. First day in forever that more m3 than mY were sold (82 vs 80). I predict the number tomorrow could go down further and possibly Monday as well but with fresh cars coming off the last ship from Zeebrugge over the weekend the record should still be achievable.

Tesla Registration Stats

First of all. Something is a little weird with the historic numbers at teslastats. Today the number for Q1 2019 went up with another two cars. Two and a half years later. Talk about being slow putting the paperwork in or something.

It doesn't matter much though because my prediction for a 'slower' day was not only incorrect. It was very incorrect. A ship must have arrived Norway a couple of days back and unlike previous deliveries this one had mostly model 3s.

Current Norwegian quarterly record is 7,180 (or thereabouts) cars. With seven six five four weekdays to go Tesla is at 5,982 6,226 6,391 6.848, This is 1,192 948 787 332 behind. Which translates to 170 158 157 83 cars per weekday remaining. Todays sales were 303 239 162 457.

So it's suddenly pretty much a given that the quarterly record will be beaten, if not on Monday then on Tuesday. Heck, they'll probably work at least one of the weekend days so could be tomorrow.

And if there really is another ship coming over the weekend we might see the number go past 8,000. That could potentially give Tesla a 25% market share. Not 25% of the EV market. But 25% total market share for all cars in the country for Q3.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

After a somewhat slow start, they jumped to a decent lead at the end of the first quarter and never let up, finishing with an easy 20 point win and their highest score since Feb 19th. That's 4 wins in a row and 9 out of last 10. After some mid season stumbles, Coach Elon has this team firing on all cylinders going plaid.

Today
Score:	774.39
Margin of W/L:	20.75
Attendance:	21,303,774
High - Low:	30.24
Season
Record:	97-87
Total margin of wins:	1,564.20
Total margin of losses:	-1,495.48
YTD gain/loss:	68.72	9.74%
Price/52 week high	86.01%
Best Win:	110.58	Mar 9
Worst Loss:	-68.83	Jan 11
Last 10:	9-1
Streak:	W4
Avg margin of victory:	16.13
Avg margin of defeat:	-17.19
Avg Attendance:	17,324,511
Avg Attendance of Last 10:	18,444,930
Avg High - Low:	29.98
Avg H - L of Last 10:	18.76

 

[Lessmog]

Sorry, but I think that quartering will only net four pieces.

That is, unless you give the task of quartering himself to that chart maker ...

IDK, but I suspect that @StapleGun meant that as carcassm ... /s

 

[Lessmog]

And with that, although not being a bear, time to hibernate.
Thx for all the berries.

 

[SPadival]

Just providing madame chairwoman Homendy with some context on the optics

https://twitter.com/x/status/1441503900712914954

 

[Singuy]

Elon Musk: "Production is going very well"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1441427150762958855