Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

First: EAP includes some of what is now FSD -- so for $5k you get parts of FSD past the current $3k AP
Second: Benefit from EAP for the last months
Third: Buying EAP early was rewarded with $2k for FSD (less than what it cost originally)
Fourth: Buying EAP+FSD early was rewarded with access to early adopter -- so the "early access" gets continued

Speaking of which, coming up on 3 weeks since that announcement and I’ve heard nothing about my early access program invite... wondering when thatll actually go out. Seems like something an intern could do in 5 minutes.

 

[lklundin]

Just noticed this post and laughed, because the first thing I said while reading the SEC letter is, "Are these people high?"

Yes, high on power - for too long.

 

[Tenable]

Good points, but I think it should not be neglected that the MR was introduced as a stop gap (we can do it now, rather than February) and it was going to go away at some point. The timing was the only question.

Aren't you neglecting that there was an extra $3,750 tax break in December? I'm the poster child here for not qualifying for tax breaks so I really paid significantly more for my Tesla than other folks.

I object to the contention that I'm "rationalizing" -- rather I accept that it was my decision to buy. There was a common belief, that turned out to be correct, that prices would drop with the reduced tax break. I thought Tesla would not because they needed the money to grow, but I knew it was a possibility that the price would drop. I also expected the MR to be removed with the SR introduction. Turns out there was a slight overlap, but -- honestly -- trying to time these things for minimum cost to oneself is difficult.

It also sounds like someone complaining that their brand new 386 was just obsoleted by the 486. Technology moves fast: you can spend now, or delay and delay. But either way, its your choice.

I disagree. The tax break has nothing to do with the software. If they were to give everyone that paid the higher price for the vehicle +5k for EAP free FSD it would at least be palatable. However, as an example, charging a December buyer that purchased EAP for 5k an additional 2k+ tax while charging a December buyer who purchased no software 5k total for AP+FSD is still charging two different prices to a buyer. This is contrary to Elons acid test:

"The acid test is that if you can't explain to a customer who paid full price why another customer didn't without being embarrassed, then it is not right. We either win in a way that is fair and right or we lose with our honor intact and accept the consequences."

In fact the first buyer that shelled out the cash early should in principle be rewarded, not punished.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Carsonight said that 1 of the 3 S&X lines have been shut down for all of q1.

They don't have 3 S/X lines. I think he meant 1 of 3 shifts. I don't think that's really correct, either, since Tesla told Reuters over a year ago they only needed two shifts to make 100k/year thanks to efficiency improvements.
Tesla says Model S, Model X production efficiency much improved | Reuters

 

[Tenable]

That's how it works. you pay extra to get to the front of the line. I was the 3rd person in the state of Virginia to get a Model S. Bunch of people bought Model S's a year later than me, paid less, and got more features (like parking sensors). I understood it. That's how it works. But I guess I'm just rationalizing.

By the way, I have a plasma TV I paid $10,000 for that I'd like to sell you. Oh, but you can buy this far superior OLED right over here for less than half that.

This is an entirely different situation. I am discussing paying for software and the promises made. I have not said a word about the M3 price drop, or the value I paid for my Model S vs what you get today. But if that is how you choose to move forward with this conversation I can't say or do much about it.

 

[humbaba]

I disagree. The tax break has nothing to do with the software. If they were to give everyone that paid the higher price for the vehicle +5k for EAP free FSD it would at least be palatable. However, as an example, charging a December buyer that purchased EAP for 5k an additional 2k+ tax while charging a December buyer who purchased no software 5k total for AP+FSD is still charging two different prices to a buyer. This is contrary to Elons acid test:

"The acid test is that if you can't explain to a customer who paid full price why another customer didn't without being embarrassed, then it is not right. We either win in a way that is fair and right or we lose with our honor intact and accept the consequences."

In fact the first buyer that shelled out the cash early should in principle be rewarded, not punished.

I brought up the tax break because you were talking about the high price compared to now. That makes the tax break relevant. Interesting quote from Elon (citation?) but that is just looking at one aspect and completely ignoring the reason for the price drop: Elon's driving desire to make his vehicles accessible to as many people as possible. I know his mission and if some acid test conflicts with the mission? Color me surprised when the mission wins.

 

[Tenable]

What HW does your Model S have? If you bought FSD I'm pretty sure you'll get HW 3.

FC I must not be articulating myself well. I'm arguing that those of us that paid 8k for software that does little different than AP 1.0 today should not be getting shafted when compared to those who opted to purchase nothing and now receive the same software for 5k.

 

[Fact Checking]

On a more positive note I’d like to hear everyone December 31st share price targets.

Anywhere between 244-389

Anywhere between $244-$3890.

With the $920m convertibles paid back the $360 "barrier" should be a lot weaker on the way up, although it's certainly a historic level of resistance.

 

[anthonyj]

That's how it works. you pay extra to get to the front of the line. I was the 3rd person in the state of Virginia to get a Model S. Bunch of people bought Model S's a year later than me, paid less, and got more features (like parking sensors). I understood it. That's how it works. But I guess I'm just rationalizing.

By the way, I have a plasma TV I paid $10,000 for that I'd like to sell you. Oh, but you can buy this far superior OLED right over here for less than half that.

FSD doesn’t even exist yet though. He bought FSD when he was told that if he didn’t it would go up in price. It went down. And he didn’t even get to use it.

FYI I’m in the camp that thinks people shouldn’t have gotten a $5,000 refund for the M3P package. FSD is a different story

 

[Fact Checking]

FC I must not be articulating myself well. I'm arguing that those of us that paid 8k for software that does little different than AP 1.0 today should not be getting shafted when compared to those who opted to purchase nothing and now receive the same software for 5k.

I don't think you will be shafted - is your car HW2 or HW 2.5?

 

[Tenable]

I brought up the tax break because you were talking about the high price compared to now. That makes the tax break relevant. Interesting quote from Elon (citation?) but that is just looking at one aspect and completely ignoring the reason for the price drop: Elon's driving desire to make his vehicles accessible to as many people as possible. I know his mission and if some acid test conflicts with the mission? Color me surprised when the mission wins.

You're still not hearing me. Forget the drop in price on vehicles. If three people bought the same car for the same price in December. One chose to buy no software, the second bought EAP, the third FSD. The Tesla website states that you must buy the software prior to taking delivery or pay a premium later. If you purchased FSD prior to delivery its 8k, after delivery 11k.

In this scenario. Today the person that purchased FSD in December will have spent 8k + Tax. The person that purchased EAP will have paid 5k+ tax and is given the option to upgrade to FSD for an additional 2k+ tax. Person 2 can get FSD for 7k+ tax. Person one, that purchased nothing, can get it for 5k+ tax. All 3 paid the same price for the same car, received the same tax break. But the promise of a financial benefit for purchasing early is broken.

 

[humbaba]

FC I must not be articulating myself well. I'm arguing that those of us that paid 8k for software that does little different than AP 1.0 today should not be getting shafted when compared to those who opted to purchase nothing and now receive the same software for 5k.

Okay, I'm confused. If you bought EAP+FSD last year it cost $5k+$3k=$8k. If you buy AP+FSD now it costs $3k+$5k=$8k. Either way, the same software costs $8k.

But let's take it your way: the early adopter paid $3k for FSD and someone now has to pay $5k for FSD -- so they are paying more. I really don't get your complaint.

 

[anthonyj]

Anywhere between $244-$3890.

With the $920m convertibles paid back the $360 "barrier" should be a lot weaker on the way up, although it's certainly a historic level of resistance.

If Elon is laying a bear trap like Q3 and shows a profit (and it kind of seems like it) then yes, huge green $100 weekly candle and probably blow past ATH. I don’t know. I’m torn. I think Tesla is creating a lot of their own FUD with the retail store expansion/closure/reopening. Reminds me of a furniture store lol. I talked to 2 employees at the service center yesterday and that left a bad taste in their mouth

 

[capster]

This still seems. I am ordering a new car and paying 8k. My dads car ordered in December cost me far more than a M3 would today and since I ordered EAP for him, I'm paying $7k + tax for his FSD in total. Yet those who didnt order anything ahead of time, are being rewarded with 5k FSD instead of punished. While its the early adopters that are in fact being punished. I get that we are all bulls here, but this is garbage. Anyone that says otherwise is rationalizing.

And Tesla could show a cross-country drive tomorrow and raise the price or turn it into a service. And later buyers could complain about unfairness or not.

No one has done what Tesla is doing. No one has sold what Tesla is selling. Tesla is a rocket launched through a haze of anti-aircraft fire, is there any surprise they need to make adjustments to maximize thrust or adjust their vector?

I knew FSD wouldn't be turned on right away when I bought it, but I wanted to lock it in at that price and to help promote the development of FSD technology. I knew the price could go up or down in the future. I am content with my purchase. Prices change on most things, especially technology, every day.

I also knew that the overall price of the car would come down and that is part of the reason I bought it. I wanted to help Tesla scale so that prices would come down.

The car is amazing. Navigation on autopilot is already astonishing. The value for money is there (even what I paid last August).

Far from rationalizing and no offense, it your position that is, ah, untenable.

 

[humbaba]

You're still not hearing me. Forget the drop in price on vehicles. If three people bought the same car for the same price in December. One chose to buy no software, the second bought EAP, the third FSD. The Tesla website states that you must buy the software prior to taking delivery or pay a premium later. If you purchased FSD prior to delivery its 8k, after delivery 11k.

In this scenario. Today the person that purchased FSD in December will have spent 8k + Tax. The person that purchased EAP will have paid 5k+ tax and is given the option to upgrade to FSD for an additional 2k+ tax. Person 2 can get FSD for 7k+ tax. Person one, that purchased nothing, can get it for 5k+ tax. All 3 paid the same price for the same car, received the same tax break. But the promise of a financial benefit for purchasing early is broken.

Yeah... I covered that, but the posts are too fast so maybe you didn't see it. In any case: no need to worry about more posts from me.

Cheers!

 

[Todd Burch]

People where can I direct my Texan friends to protest online the Tesla situation?

Don't know but I'd try to push for the following:

If Texas passes that legislation, SpaceX should pick up and leave the state of Texas entirely.

 

[anthonyj]

Okay, I'm confused. If you bought EAP+FSD last year it cost $5k+$3k=$8k. If you buy AP+FSD now it costs $3k+$5k=$8k. Either way, the same software costs $8k.

But let's take it your way: the early adopter paid $3k for FSD and someone now has to pay $5k for FSD -- so they are paying more. I really don't get your complaint.

Isn’t FSD $2,000 rn if you have a Tesla? I have an AP1 car so I can’t check, but I’ve seen tons of posts on Twitter of people upgrading to FSD for $2,000

 

[AudubonB]

Please accept my most abject apologies. Since I was [partially] educated in Houghton, you might not be surprised that I can miss both obvious and important facts.

The mind bobbles at what might have eventuated had you been fully educated there.

 

[Tenable]

I don't think you will be shafted - is your car HW2 or HW 2.5?

For the car in question I believe HW 2.5. FC I am not concerned about the HW, as we will all (hopefully) be receiving HW 3 upgrades. I'm concerned with the fact that I've been charged more than my fellow man for the same product from the same company which has yet to be released. I am punished for being an early supporter. my .02

 

[Tslynk67]

First, welcome back @neroden.

Second, holy hell: Jaguar I-PACE: It's better than the Model Y and you can buy it now

This is what it’s come to; the financial media has started just outright publishing ads for Tesla’s competitors as Tesla news articles. “Better than the Model Y” is a pretty funny headline for an article where every spec listed is worse than the Y.

Obviously this guy wasn't paying attention to the slipping EV time-lines of most manufacturers, plus ignores the fact that Tesla have just ramped a very, very, very similar car - 75% the same, allegedly - and will use all that knowledge to bring the MY to production on time, if not earlier. Failing black-swan events, this is a given, I think.

We’ll still have to see how Elon Musk gets the Model Y to market and scale to meet demand. But as we all know Tesla can’t be bothered with revealing those pesky, logistical details like more traditional manufacturers. Tesla fans will dutifully wait for their Model Ys.

Then we get this gem, towards the end:

The only knock I can think of is the range - I observed around 220 miles per charge (Jaguar says it will get 234 miles per full charge). Not bad, but it’s one area where it would be nicer to have more juice in reserve.

So poor range is a "knock" (meaning small downside for those unfamiliar with it). Sorry, but I think you'll find that range is the single most important feature in an EV, especially for those new to such cars and 10x more for those manufacturers that don't have their own dedicated fast charging network...

One could also point out that the base spec Model 3 will have better range than this.