Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JustMe]

Updated my numbers with 238k produced in q3… At 20x price to sales ratio I estimate a market cap of $1,054T …

I think that T is supposed to be a B…

Tesla probably won’t be worth a quadrillion dollars for a couple more decades

 

[Blue horseshoe]

I think that T is supposed to be a B…

Tesla probably won’t be worth a quadrillion dollars for a couple more decades

Thank you! Edited to remove the comma and keep the T

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Updated my numbers with 238k produced in q3. That's a 15.5% increase from q2. Q2 saw a 14% increase from q1. Using q2's increase to be conservative I'm estimating q4 production to increase by 14% to 271.3k for a 2021 total production around 895.3k.

For q3 and q4 I increased revenue estimates to account for more model Y and S sales. Using an average rev of $58,889 (I lump total revenue together) I come up with a 2021 est revenue of $52.7B.

At 20x price to sales ratio I estimate a market cap of $1.054T and a share price of $1,065.

Using price to sales between 18 and 30 (both p/s ratios were hit this year) to get a share price range I estimate $958-$1,597.

If you take the rate of Sept from Giga China, 275k is the baseline for Q4 (with the expectation of Model S/X combined P/D going from 10k in Q3 to 20k in Q4).

That's without Berlin or Texas adding anything.

For those us that take the exiting production rates of China in the last month of the quarter and apply them to the next quarter with a small 5% in production, this method has worked out fantastically so far this year in terms of predicting the quarterly P/D very early on in the quarter.

 

[Singuy]

Tesla's Q3 2021 revenues will probably be at about +/- half of GM and Ford's levels... (~$14.5b vs ~$30b)

Sometime 2023 Tesla will probably overtake them in revenue and become the largest US automaker.

Gm's net income in 2019:$6.581 billion
Tesla's annualized net income is about that today, and by end of 2022, it will be Ford's and Gm's combined.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Tesla's Q3 2021 revenues will probably be at about +/- half of GM and Ford's levels... (~$14.5b vs ~$30b)

Sometime 2023 Tesla will probably overtake them in revenue and become the largest US automaker.

Revenue doesn't really matter much when your competition has higher profits on a fraction of your revenues.............that's actually a sign of a terribly run company and why GM get's such a lower valuation

Edit: @Singuy beat me

 

[Gigapress]

My prediction is that it stays in the family. No guarantee a son will be as good as Elon, but we’ve got 6 shots at it and just maybe one is even better.

Alternatively, I see a very different world. Everyone tries to extrapolate the future based on today. Instead, look to history and see how technology flipped the world on its head throughout human history. I see the world being flipped again and then pile driven with the next technology advancements making your questions and concerns moot. I just hope I live long enough to see it. Hurry up, Elon!

Tesla is not a monarchy. I would be appalled if Tesla used nepotism to decide the next leader. Drew Baglino is a better choice IMO.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Tesla delivered 241,300 vehicles in the third quarter, topping expectations

Tesla delivered 241,300 electric vehicles during the third quarter of 2021, the company said Saturday.

www.cnbc.com

CNBC actually reported the consensus number correctly........I'm actually surprised. Saw a couple other articles trying to say the consensus was 229k

Also..........." Tesla is also planning to host its annual shareholder meeting at its plant, now under construction, near Austin on October 7. Musk previously threatened to move Tesla’s headquarters out of California in the spring of 2020 when the state’s Covid-related health orders required Tesla’s Fremont factory to temporarily suspend operations for a few weeks.

At the time, California Gov. Gavin Newsom told CNBC he was “not worried about Elon leaving any time soon,” and voiced support for Tesla."

Yeah, you better be worried now Gavin. Tesla changing the location to Austin on the P/D report is a clear sign Elon's leaving soon.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So deliveries up 73% and baseline near 900k for 2021 without Austin or Berlin and keeping 4Q estimates conservative. Basically just where we hoped we'd be.

1M is in play depending on what we hear on Thursday. Very unlikely given all the global supply chair issues, but technically achievable. Amazing.

 

[Lessmog]

Tesla delivered 241,300 vehicles in the third quarter, topping expectations

Tesla delivered 241,300 electric vehicles during the third quarter of 2021, the company said Saturday.

www.cnbc.com

CNBC actually reported the consensus number correctly........I'm actually surprised. Saw a couple other articles trying to say the consensus was 229k

Also..........." Tesla is also planning to host its annual shareholder meeting at its plant, now under construction, near Austin on October 7. Musk previously threatened to move Tesla’s headquarters out of California in the spring of 2020 when the state’s Covid-related health orders required Tesla’s Fremont factory to temporarily suspend operations for a few weeks.

At the time, California Gov. Gavin Newsom told CNBC he was “not worried about Elon leaving any time soon,” and voiced support for Tesla."

Yeah, you better be worried now Gavin. Tesla changing the location to Austin on the P/D report is a clear sign Elon's leaving soon.

It seems Elon has already left the building ...

 

[Nolimits]

Tesla delivered 241,300 vehicles in the third quarter, topping expectations

Tesla delivered 241,300 electric vehicles during the third quarter of 2021, the company said Saturday.

www.cnbc.com

CNBC actually reported the consensus number correctly........I'm actually surprised. Saw a couple other articles trying to say the consensus was 229k

Also..........." Tesla is also planning to host its annual shareholder meeting at its plant, now under construction, near Austin on October 7. Musk previously threatened to move Tesla’s headquarters out of California in the spring of 2020 when the state’s Covid-related health orders required Tesla’s Fremont factory to temporarily suspend operations for a few weeks.

At the time, California Gov. Gavin Newsom told CNBC he was “not worried about Elon leaving any time soon,” and voiced support for Tesla."

Yeah, you better be worried now Gavin. Tesla changing the location to Austin on the P/D report is a clear sign Elon's leaving soon.

Nothing negative from Loras article too…. For now.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So deliveries up 73% and baseline near 900k for 2021 without Austin or Berlin and keeping 4Q estimates conservative. Basically just where we hoped we'd be.

1M is in play depending on what we hear on Thursday. Very unlikely given all the global supply chair issues, but technically achievable. Amazing.

Unless Fremont is expecting a step up in production and/or Texas starts production with a sprint, 300-310k for Q4 is the absolute maximum theoretical production I can see

160k out of China - Sept run rate of 50k/month for Oct, Nov, Dec with a 5-7% production increase
110 out of Fremont 3/Y
25k out of Fremont S/X
15k out of Texas

Equals 310k

But that's again, theoretical maximum, no factory downtimes (which we already know China will be down for holidays the first week of Oct), and Giga Texas hits the ground running. But even then, that would only take us to about 935-940k for the year. I really can't see 1 million for 2021 unless both Berlin and Texas have insane initial production rates.

 

[ZachF]

Unless Fremont is expecting a step up in production and/or Texas starts production with a sprint, 300-310k for Q4 is the absolute maximum theoretical production I can see

160k out of China - Sept run rate of 50k/month for Oct, Nov, Dec with a 5-7% production increase
110 out of Fremont 3/Y
25k out of Fremont S/X
15k out of Texas

Equals 310k

But that's again, theoretical maximum, no factory downtimes (which we already know China will be down for holidays the first week of Oct), and Giga Texas hits the ground running.

It will be enough for Tesla to claim a >1% unit share globally

Tesla market share in units sold:
2019: 0.38%
2020: 0.64%
2021: 1.08% (est)

Revenue share is probably roughly double these numbers

 

[Gigapress]

Tesla delivered 241,300 vehicles in the third quarter, topping expectations

Tesla delivered 241,300 electric vehicles during the third quarter of 2021, the company said Saturday.

www.cnbc.com

CNBC actually reported the consensus number correctly........I'm actually surprised. Saw a couple other articles trying to say the consensus was 229k

Also..........." Tesla is also planning to host its annual shareholder meeting at its plant, now under construction, near Austin on October 7. Musk previously threatened to move Tesla’s headquarters out of California in the spring of 2020 when the state’s Covid-related health orders required Tesla’s Fremont factory to temporarily suspend operations for a few weeks.

At the time, California Gov. Gavin Newsom told CNBC he was “not worried about Elon leaving any time soon,” and voiced support for Tesla."

Yeah, you better be worried now Gavin. Tesla changing the location to Austin on the P/D report is a clear sign Elon's leaving soon.

Agree that it's surprising and refreshing that CNBC is reporting the actual consensus estimates.

Disagree that having the shareholder meeting in Austin is a unambiguous sign Elon's leaving soon. It could just be a sign that they want to showcase the new plant or announce that it's about to open. Rate of hiring in Austin exceeds rate of hiring anywhere else for Tesla right now, and Tesla events are ALWAYS primarily directed at attracting talent.

 

[Singuy]

After q3 report people should do a chart with annualized teslas net income compared to gm, F, Diamler, and BMW. It'll form a X with all of them.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Agree that it's surprising and refreshing that CNBC is reporting the actual consensus estimates.

Disagree that having the shareholder meeting in Austin is a unambiguous sign Elon's leaving soon. It could just be a sign that they want to showcase the new plant or announce that it's about to open. Rate of hiring in Austin exceeds rate of hiring anywhere else for Tesla right now, and Tesla events are ALWAYS primarily directed at attracting talent.

I'd have to disagree. Tesla hosting the Annual Shareholders meeting from Austin makes perfect sense because that's the new factory and odds are they're going to show off the first production Y's.

But for them to change the location on the report is a clear sign they're getting ready to change headquarters to Austin. There's no logical reason to change your company location on official company documents unless you're already in the stages of changing your headquarters to that new location.

I'd actually put money on Elon announcing Austin is the new headquarters at the annual shareholders meeting at this point

 

[2daMoon]

Tesla is not a monarchy. I would be appalled if Tesla used nepotism to decide the next leader. Drew Baglino is a better choice IMO.

I took the post to infer how out of six, maybe one will have Elon's gifted mind.

If so, that would be the one to groom toward disruptive business building in his generation. Whether that be at the helm of Tesla, or, of a company Elon's progeny creates on his own.

Fingers crossed that more than one follows their dad in aptitude and interests.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Nothing negative from Loras article too…. For now.

Has someone hacked her account ? She even published this at the end of the article:

"Auto Forecast Solutions Vice President Sam Fiorani agreed. He said, “Tesla has such a head start on the competition in the EV market that it is unlikely for anyone to pass them anytime soon. The Cult of Tesla will keep buyers attached to the brand for years to come. Even Audi and Mercedes are finding it difficult to tap into the same type of aura. While their market share will decrease, Tesla will keep the leadership position for years to come without a major misstep from within the company.”

She will likely have the hack cleared up JUST before market open on Monday.

 

[30seconds]

So what could the run rate be in Q2 2022? 325k ? Assuming that Fremont + China can do 275k is it too aggressive to think that Tx and Berlin can do 25k / quarter by then?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So what could the run rate be in Q2 2022? 325k ? Assuming that Fremont + China can do 275k is it too aggressive to think that Tx and Berlin can do 25k / quarter by then?

I would expect Texas to be at a baseline of 50k/quarter by Q2. Berlin may be slightly behind that rate though.

Just ballparking Q2 2022

China - 170k
Fremont - 140k (110 3/Y + 30k S/X)
Texas - 60k
Berlin - 40k

So about 410k Q2 2022 P/D..........as Borat says.......VERY NICE

 

[redan]

Good article and headline from Barron's:

Tesla Deliveries Crushed Expectations. What's Next.

Tesla delivered more than 240,000 cars in the third quarter of 2021. Wall Street was looking for about 225,000 to 230,000 deliveries.

www.barrons.com