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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
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ZachF
Active Member
eventually growth will slow in auto production to the growth rate in the overall market, which is a few percentage points per year.
After that, revenue growth will have to rely on stationary energy storage, which will be a new large market but probably a bit smaller than autos.
Tesla can also expand out into similar or technically overlapping products like construction equipment, HVAC, etc.
Robotics is a market where the sky is essentially the limit… and if you are a multi planet species even that may not be a limit. This is why I was glad I was right about my Tesla bot prediction…
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2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Here's Best in Tesla's weekly wrap-up to entertain with news, Teslaps, and coverage of much development across the EV space. Lars' upbeat presentation and sense of humor is always something to look forward to help get us through the weekend.
A car isn’t considered produced until complete and ready for delivery. So all those units sitting in a lot waiting for parts are work-in-process. They will show up in inventory cost on financials though (just not as finished goods).
So, keep your eyes on inventory $ at end of Q3. We saw a draw down in inventory yet I entirely expect the $ number to be higher than end of Q2. The production numbers are likely “sandbagged” with real production closer to 250k (just missing some nagging parts).
Agile is really just convention to describe fast iteration, mostly applied to software and project management.
What is Agile Software Development?
Agile gives organizations the ability to quickly create and respond to change in today's disruptive marketplace. Learn more at AgileAlliance.org.
www.agilealliance.org
Now, seeing how Musk-world is doing this I am astonished. It takes massive confidence and humility to do this process called Agile. Nearly everyone fails doing it, precisely because they fear failure. From the beginning, before SpaceX, Elon Musk has had both confidence and humility.
The ‘holy grail’ of this might be to try to never make the same mistake twice. The corollary might be to avoid large scale deployment until you’ve solved the problems of small scale.
As we know from ‘Elon time’ the chief frustration is that you never know how much time and effort it takes to move from test to production.
The Joe Justice vídeo reminds me of how much I had forgotten. When that happens I suspect that is when I am remembering things I never knew.
Toyota, the disciples of Deming, masters of JIT and Lean, do not know that those earth shattering principles of 1980’s, are completely obsolete now.
Paxton, sir, is not the wilderness. I’m not bored. I’m thinking about how much Tesla and SpaceX really are about manufacturing technology. We have, even enthusiasts, understated what that really means. Even Paxson now can have fast internet. Just marvel about that.
California, my birthplace, has done more to advance these technologies than has any other place. So leaving CA and much else raises the question of how to preserve that spirit of relentless innovation.
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larmor
Active Member
This is a microcosm of how the street views TSLA. The street rolling in speculative gains is all ready too smart. So they look at TSLA, first as a 'kickstarter', then a cult, then a car company. All the while saying, well what is their revenue? What are their margins? Despite the reality that making durable goods, here cars and batteries is capital intensive. Your friend is way too smart to invest in TSLA. They will not even understand the QOQ and YOY production growth and that every widget being made is all ready sold. Because every auto manufacturer has YOY growth, right? (tongue in cheek)
Do not even contemplate discussing TSLA own GPU and software solution for FSD, like the street, i'm guessing are way too smart for this. They will tell you that this is just a kickstarter project and that way smarter people have attempted this.
My advice, is to just listen and not even mention Tesla because what is happening on the streets is the real story. Even here in metro DFW area, there are increasing numbers of Tesla cars compared to just two years ago, just check out any intersection at the lights. Similarly fiver years ago, Irvine, CA, was like that, few Teslas and then in a few years, many more at each point of the intersection.
ZachF
Active Member
Agile is really just convention to describe fast iteration, mostly applied to software and project management.
In 2003 I worked with a large team that tried to use those concepts with a huge merger integration that required many very fast integrations of incompatible systems and processes. We were mostly ignorant and knew that. These concepts helped immeasurably to solve problems quickly and fix mistakes we made along the way. We managed to do that only because the client was desperate.What is Agile Software Development?
Agile gives organizations the ability to quickly create and respond to change in today's disruptive marketplace. Learn more at AgileAlliance.org.
Now, seeing how Musk-world is doing this I am astonished. It takes massive confidence and humility to do this process called Agile. Nearly everyone fails doing it, precisely because they fear failure. From the beginning, before SpaceX, Elon Musk has had both confidence and humility.
The ‘holy grail’ of this might be to try to never make the same mistake twice. The corollary might be to avoid large scale deployment until you’ve solved the problems of small scale.
As we know from ‘Elon time’ the chief frustration is that you never know how much time and effort it takes to move from test to production.
The Joe Justice vídeo reminds me of how much I had forgotten. When that happens I suspect that is when I am remembering things I never knew.
Toyota, the disciples of Deming, masters of JIT and Lean, do not know that those earth shattering principles of 1980’s, are completely obsolete now.
Coronavirus and 2021 in general is really highlighting the weaknesses of JIT. See the ongoing chip fiasco... Take the system out of steady-state just a little bit and it almost completely unravels.
Oh no, does that mean you'll be posting even more? I'm outta here.
Seriously though, nice one! Age-wise you beat me by a couple of years. I was concerned I might get bored and go back to contracting but I shouldn't have worried. It's great. Also from me thanks to Elon and Tesla, and everyone on this forum who made it possible. And as you say, not forgetting the saddo TSLAQ community who have made something that was already fun, so much more enjoyable
Oh contrare (sp?)
Maybe not completely. There was one person out of that crew that did not worship at the alter of statistics. Shigeo Shingo.
He was a "lot size of one person" which matches the agile process very well. I think they hated each other, and he made fun of them in the introduction to the Poka Yoke book. Amazon.com
This is the parsed view of the introduction.
So generally, I agree with you. After thinking about it.
I don't think that is exactly unsubstantiated. IDRA has an array of solutions that are cheaper than the Gigapresses. So do other suppliers.
New models coming from Tesla (both China and Germany designs) probably will have lengths of less than 4.5 meters, (i.e. VW Golf/Peugeot 208/Dacia Sandero/VW T-ROC all EU best sellers).
We do not yet know if Tesla might decide to produce this class of vehicle with a single casting, or two of them. We do know (ok, I think we know) that they will make a single casting to include suspension components.
Maybe they'll use more Gigapresses if they want a single casting or two if they want two castings.
It may also be a decent guess that they'll use LFP battery chemistry, most likely CATL packs, which will be much more advanced by the time these vehicles enter production.
The challenge is to understand the innovation in the product and it's construction that will happen in the next two years before they arrive.
So, back to IDRA/LK. I believe that they are now preparing for the presses that will be deployed to support those new vehicles. FWIW, they are also working on larger presses too, as they have said. Those larger ones will probably support the now Models S and X when they arrive as well as Cybertruck and... something else.
I firmly believe we have just seen the beginning of materials innovation through collaboration between
LK-Idra, and aluminum providers. At the same time Tesla is innovating with stainless steel:
That is not about aluminum castings but it may portent greater innovation in the steel parts fo new Tesla vehicles. The point of this post is that we seem to be forgetting just how consequential the Tesla materials innovation actually is, so the next vehicles will surprise us, rather as Cybertruck and Model Y castings already have done.
I think we may rest assure that the upcoming China and German designs will both be mind-blowing and will both ahem much lower construction costs than do any competitors two years hence.
Why? in mundane Munro terms: Tesla does not design cars from existing parts bins.
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Well I might not always agree with Jbcarioca but ..well said sir well said. It's really the only significant center of innovation in the last 30 years. In the world. Where innovation is the industry.
Yes, Welcome to the club, here is a snapshot from my LinkedIn account:Welcome to the club.. After deleting my old LinkedIn account, I re-created a profile with “semi retired” as the job title.. just to pss off some of my nasty former colleagues
There was some talk over the last couple of years that Pana was going to upgrade some of their Japanese lines to newer formfactors - not sure if this has eventuated, however if they were going to do it the time would have been while the S/X were being refreshed. If so, that may have reduced the number of lines producing 18650s. As a counter point, the 18650s energy density has also been increasing over time - so total # of GWh available is anyone's guess.
2019:
Panasonic may upgrade Japan plant to make advanced Tesla batteries: source
2021: test 4680 lines in Japan:
Exclusive: LG hopes to make new battery cells for Tesla in 2023 in U.S. or Europe - sources
2021: test 4680 lines at "existing facilities":
Panasonic to build prototypes of new Tesla battery in 2021
I think it depends on wether they are complete or not: complete counts as produced, goes in inventory. Not complete (e.g. waiting for an unavailable part) counts as work in progress, and is not a “produced” car.
There is a lot of great engineering systems work from Deming and others. Toyota (and Japan inc automotive) was a result of a poorly poorly made bet on Hydrogen. For that same investment dollar they could have created Tesla and built battery factories. The funding into hydrogen and the resource allocation was just....mind blowing. Hydrogen fuel cells have exactly 0 market share. Amazing after the analog HDTV fiasco that Japan Inc did it again. Frankly just amazing.
Well the Japanese Rocket industry too, instead of creating blue origin or spacex they did a LM/Boeing useless clone. Sigh. Poor Japan.
Well the Japanese Rocket industry too, instead of creating blue origin or spacex they did a LM/Boeing useless clone. Sigh. Poor Japan.
Yes, and most OEM's, including Tesla, will not place a product in 'finished goods' unless it is ready for delivery to a purchaser. that could include even software..
I wonder about warp and twist if they make a single casting with rails connecting front and back. If they use a pan, the battery module gets some suspension fringe on each end and a great lower pan to put heat into. I don't know what happens when it is bitterly cold outside?I don't think that is exactly unsubstantiated. IDRA has an array of solutions that are cheaper than the Gigapresses. So do other suppliers.
New models coming from Tesla (both China and Germany designs) probably will have lengths of less than 4.5 meters, (i.e. VW Golf/Peugeot 208/Dacia Sandero/VW T-ROC all EU best sellers).
We do not yet know if Tesla might decide to produce this class of vehicle with a single casting, or two of them. We do know (ok, I think we know) that they will make a single casting to include suspension components.
Maybe they'll use more Gigapresses if they want a single casting or two if they want two castings.
It may also be a decent guess that they'll use LFP battery chemistry, most likely CATL packs, which will be much more advanced by the time these vehicles enter production.
The challenge is to understand the innovation in the product and it's construction that will happen in the next two years before they arrive.
So, back to IDRA/LK. I believe that they are now preparing for the presses that will be deployed to support those new vehicles. FWIW, they are also working on larger presses too, as they have said. Those larger ones will probably support the now Models S and X when they arrive as well as Cybertruck and... something else.
I firmly believe we have just seen the beginning of materials innovation through collaboration between
LK-Idra, and aluminum providers. At the same time Tesla is innovating with stainless steel:
That 'highly austenitic' means very corrosion resistant and also use of lots of chromium and nickel. No question about that having come from Starship technology/
That is not about aluminum castings but it may portent greater innovation in the steel parts fo new Tesla vehicles. The point of this post is that we seem to be forgetting just how consequential the Tesla materials innovation actually is, so the next vehicles will surprise us, rather as Cybertruck and Model Y castings already have done.
I think we may rest assure that the upcoming China and German designs will both be mind-blowing and will both ahem much lower construction costs than do any competitors two years hence.
Why? in mundane Munro terms: Tesla does not designed cars from existing parts bins.
Do you have any idea what they were smoking? Maybe Japan is a small island and everyone in the whole country can refuel at one hydrogen station?
lafrisbee
Active Member
How 'bout?Yes, thats still TBD, but the imagery provided on Bty Day(to my eye at least) suggests that the plan is for a cast battery box...
EDIT: here's the relevent slide from Bty Day so folks can judge for themselves:
View attachment 717310
Either way, it does not change the main point which is that 4680s packs are NOT coming to the Model S/X anytime soon.
Cheers!
Model X may never get the 4680's. What comes after 4680...
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